Counting the cost of premature mortality with progressively worse aortic stenosis in Australia: a clinical cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Aortic stenosis is the most common cardiac valve disorder requiring clinical management. However, there is little evidence on the societal cost of progressive aortic stenosis. We sought to quantify the societal burden of premature mortality associated with progressively worse aortic stenosis. METHODS: In this observational clinical cohort study, we examined echocardiograms on native aortic valves of 98 565 men and 99 357 women aged 65 years or older across 23 sites in Australia, from Jan 1, 2003, to Dec 31, 2017. Individuals were grouped according to their peak aortic valve velocity in 0·50 m/s increments up to 4·00 m/s or more (severe aortic stenosis), using 1·00-1·99 m/s (no aortic stenosis) as the reference group. Sex-specific premature mortality and years of life lost during a 5-year follow-up were calculated, along with willingness-to-pay to regain quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). FINDINGS: Overall, 20 701 (21·0%) men and 18 576 (18·7%) women had evidence of mild-to-severe aortic stenosis. The actual 5-year mortality in men with normal aortic valves was 32·1% and in women was 26·1%, increasing to 40·9% (mild aortic stenosis) and 52·2% (severe aortic stenosis) in men and to 35·9% (mild aortic stenosis) and 55·3% (severe aortic stenosis) in women. Overall, the estimated societal cost of premature mortality associated with aortic stenosis was AU$629 million in men and $735 million in women. Per 1000 men and women investigated, aortic stenosis was associated with eight more premature deaths in men resulting in 32·5 more QALYs lost (societal cost of $1·40 million) and 12 more premature deaths in women resulting in 57·5 more QALYs lost (societal cost of $2·48 million) when compared with those without aortic stenosis. INTERPRETATION: Any degree of aortic stenosis in older individuals is associated with premature mortality and QALYs. In this context, there is a crucial need for cost-effective strategies to promptly detect and optimally manage this common condition within our ageing populations. FUNDING: Edwards LifeSciences, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Uncovering the treatable burden of severe aortic stenosis in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the population prevalence and treatable burden of severe aortic stenosis (AS) in the UK. METHODS: We adapted a contemporary model of the population profile of symptomatic and asymptomatic severe AS in Europe and North America to estimate the number of people aged ≥55 years in the UK who might benefit from surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). RESULTS: With a point prevalence of 1.48%, we estimate that 291 448 men and women aged ≥55 years in the UK had severe AS in 2019. Of these, 68.3% (199 059, 95% CI 1 77 201 to 221 355 people) would have been symptomatic and, therefore, more readily treated according to their surgical risk profile; the remaining 31.7% of cases (92 389, 95% CI 70 093 to 144 247) being asymptomatic. Based on historical patterns of intervention, 58.4% (116 251, 95% CI 106 895 to 1 25 606) of the 199 059 symptomatic cases would qualify for SAVR, with 7208 (95% CI 7091 to 7234) being assessed as being in a high, preoperative surgical risk category. Among the remaining 41.6% (82 809, 95% CI 73 453 to 92 164) of cases potentially unsuitable for SAVR, an estimated 61.7% (51 093, 95% CI 34 780 to 67 655) might be suitable for TAVI. We estimate that 172 859 out of 291 448 prevalent cases of severe AS (59.3%) will subsequently die within 5 years without proactive management. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest a high burden of severe AS in the UK requiring surgical or transcatheter intervention that challenges the ongoing capacity of the National Health Service to meet the needs of those affected.

Prevalence and Cost of Managing Paediatric Cardiac Disease in Queensland.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of contemporary information regarding the prevalence and related health care expenditure of the most common cardiac conditions in Australian children, including congenital heart disease (CHD). METHODS: The 10 most common cardiac conditions managed by Queensland Paediatric Cardiac Service during 2014-2015 were identified from an electronic database: ventricular septal defect (VSD), pulmonary stenosis, aortic stenosis, tetralogy of Fallot, atrioventricular septal defect, transposition, Ebstein's anomaly, long QT syndrome, dilated cardiomyopathy, and rheumatic carditis. Demographic data, clinic attendance, investigational procedures, and therapeutic interventions were extracted from the electronic health records to derive indicative population estimates and direct health care expenditure relating to CHD. RESULTS: A total of 2,519 patients diagnosed with the 10 target conditions were being actively managed, including 456 (18.1%) new-born and 787 prevalent cases (2.5/1,000 population) aged <5 years. A total of 12,180 (4.8/case) investigations were performed (6,169 echocardiographic and 279 cardiac catheterisation procedures) costing $2.25 million/annum. A further 5,326 clinic visits (2.1/case, 22% regional) were conducted at a cost of $550,000/annum. A combined total of 804 catheter-based interventions and surgical procedures were performed in 300 cases (11.9%) at a cost of $13.6 million/annum. VSD (38.6% of cases) was the single greatest contributor ($5.1 million/annum) to total combined direct health care costs of $13.6 million/annum for the 2,519 patients. CONCLUSIONS: These pilot data indicate a significant patient population and health care burden imposed by CHD in Queensland. Future initiatives to better quantify this burden, from an individual to health system perspective, are urgently needed.