Worldwide trends in mortality for hypertensive heart disease from 1990 to 2019 with projection to 2034: data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

AIMS: This study aims to analyse the worldwide trends in hypertensive heart disease (HHD) mortality and associations with age, period, and birth cohort and predict the future burden of HHD deaths. METHODS AND RESULTS: Mortality estimates were obtained from Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used age-period-cohort (APC) model to examine the age, period, and cohort effects on HHD mortality between 1990 and 2019. Bayesian APC model was utilized to predict HHD deaths to 2034. The global HHD deaths were 1.16 million in 2019 and were projected to increase to 1.57 million in 2034, with the largest increment in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Between 1990 and 2019, middle/high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) countries had the largest mortality reductions (annual percentage change = -2.06%), whereas low SDI countries saw a lagging performance (annual percentage change = -1.09%). There was a prominent transition in the age distribution of deaths towards old-age population in middle/high-middle SDI countries, while the proportion of premature deaths (aged under 60 years) remained at 24% in low SDI countries in 2019. Amongst LMICs, Brazil, China, and Ethiopia showed typically improving trends both over time and in recent birth cohorts, whereas 63 countries including Indonesia, the Philippines, and Pakistan had unfavourable or worsening risks for recent periods and birth cohorts. CONCLUSION: The HHD death burden in 2019 is vast and is expected to increase rapidly in the next decade, particularly for LMICs. Limited progress in HHD management together with high premature mortality would exact huge human and medical costs in low SDI countries. The examples from Brazil, China, and Ethiopia suggest that efficient health systems with action on improving hypertension care can reduce HHD mortality effectively in LMICs.

This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of the age, period, and cohort trends in mortality for hypertensive heart disease (HHD) across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019, with projection to 2034. The death burden of HHD is substantial and growing rapidly in most of the world, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Wide disparities exist within LMICs in HHD management, with most low socio-demographic index countries showing little progress in reducing HHD mortality. The examples from Brazil, China, and Ethiopia suggest that prevention policies for HHD can reduce risks for younger birth cohorts and shift the risks for all age groups over time.

Corrigendum to "Inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery in China: results from the National Centre for Cardiovascular Diseases" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 2023; 31:100623].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100623.].

Global, regional, and national time trends in cancer mortality attributable to high fasting plasma glucose: an age-period cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: High fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) is the fastest-growing risk factor for cancer deaths worldwide. We reported the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG at global, regional, and national levels over the past three decades and associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS: Data for this study were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and we used age-period-cohort modelling to estimate age, cohort and period effects, as well as net drift (overall annual percentage change) and local drift (annual percentage change in each age group). RESULTS: Over the past 30 years, the global age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) attributable to HFPG has increased by 27.8%. The ASMR in 2019 was highest in the male population in high sociodemographic index (SDI) areas (8.70; 95% CI, 2.23-18.04). The net drift for mortality was highest in the female population in low SDI areas (2.33; 95% CI, 2.12-2.55). Unfavourable period and cohort effects were found across all SDI quintiles. Cancer subtypes such as "trachea, bronchus, and lung cancers", "colon and rectal cancers", "breast cancer" and "pancreatic cancer" exhibited similar trends. CONCLUSIONS: The cancer mortality attributable to HFPG has surged during the past three decades. Unfavourable age-period-cohort effects on mortality were observed across all SDI quintiles, and the cancer mortality attributable to HFPG is expected to continue to increase rapidly in the future, particularly in lower SDI locations. This is a grim global public health issue that requires immediate attention.

Inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery in China: results from the National Centre for Cardiovascular Diseases.

Background: Economic data on congenital heart disease (CHD) in China are scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery and related healthcare policies from a hospital perspective. Method: We used data from the Chinese Database for Congenital Heart Surgery (CDCHS) to prospectively analyse the inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery from May 2018 to December 2020. The total expenditure was divided into 11 columns (medications, imaging, consumable items, surgery, medical cares, laboratory tests, therapy, examinations, medical services, accommodations, and others), and explored according to the Society of Thoracic Surgeons-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (STAT) category, year, different age group, and CHD complexity. Authority economic data (index for gross domestic product [GDP], GDP per capita, per capita disposable income and average annual exchange rate of 2020 Chinese Yuan against US dollar) were accessed via the National Bureau of Statistics of China to better describe the burden. In addition, potential factors contributing to the costs were also investigated by using generalised linear model. Findings: All values are presented in 2020 Chinese Yuan (¥). A total of 6568 hospitalisations were enrolled. The median of overall total expenditure was ¥64,900 (≈9409 US Dollar [USD], interquartile range [IQR]: ¥35,819), with the lowest in STAT 1 (¥57,014 ≈ 8266 USD, [IQR]: ¥16,774) and the highest in STAT 5 (¥194,862 ≈ 28,251 USD, [IQR]: ¥130,010). The median costs during the 2018 to 2020 period were ¥62,014 (≈8991 USD, [IQR]: ¥32,628), ¥64,846 (≈9401 USD, [IQR]: ¥34,469) and ¥67,867 (≈9839 USD, [IQR]: ¥41,496). Regarding to age, the median costs were highest in the ≤1 month group (¥144,380 ≈ 20,932 USD, [IQR]: ¥92,584). Age, STAT category, emergency, genetic syndrome, delay sternal closure, mechanical ventilation time, and complications were significantly contributed to the inpatient costs. Interpretation: For the first time, the inpatient costs of congenital heart surgery in China are delineated in detail. According to the results, CHD treatment has achieved significant progress in China, but it still causes substantial economic burden to both families and society. In addition, ascending trend of the inpatient costs was observed during the period of 2018-2020, and the neonatal was revealed to be the most challenging group. Funding: This study was supported by the CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS,2020-I2M-C&T-A-009), Capital Health Research and Development of Special Fund (2022-1-4032), and The City University of Hong Kong New Research Initiatives/Infrastructure Support from Central (APRC, 9610589).

Alerting trends in epidemiology for calcific aortic valve disease, 1990-2019: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

AIMS: To assess the trends in calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD) epidemiology, with an emphasis on CAVD mortality, leading risk factors, and their associations with age, period, and birth cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and mortality were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-period-cohort model was employed to study the detailed trends of CAVD mortality and its leading risk factors. Globally, CAVD showed unsatisfactory results from 1990 to 2019, with the CAVD deaths of 127 000 in 2019. CAVD mortality was substantially reduced in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries [-1.45%, 95% confidence interval (CI) (-1.61 to -1.30)], mildly increased in high-middle SDI countries [0.22%, 95% CI (0.06-0.37)], and unchanged in other SDI quintiles. There was a noticeable transition in CAVD deaths from younger to older populations globally. The CAVD mortality increased exponentially with age, and the male had higher mortality than the female before 80 years old. Favourable period [0.69, 95% CI (0.66-0.72)] and birth effects [0.30, 95% CI (0.22-0.43)] were mainly observed in high SDI countries, while unfavourable effects were mostly noticed in high-middle SDI countries. High systolic blood pressure was the leading risk factor of CAVD deaths globally, and it showed favourable trends in high SDI regions. CONCLUSION: Although CAVD mortality reduction was observed globally, unfavourable period, and cohort effects were found in many countries. Increase of mortality rate among the population ≥85 years was the common challenge across all SDI quintiles, stressing the necessity to further improve health care for CAVD patients worldwide.

The Current Landscape of Congenital Heart Surgery in Northern China: A Geographic and Population-Based Analysis.

Background: Congenital heart disease (CHD) is the leading birth defect in China, and many patients require congenital heart surgery (CHS) to achieve optimal outcomes. However, the current landscape and population accessibility to specialist resources for CHS in China are unclear. Methods: Care facilities performing CHS were identified from the 2018 white book of Chinese cardiovascular surgery and were categorized as full or limited facilities based on specialist capacity. Census-based population data and road data were obtained from administrative sources. Service area analysis of all facilities was performed to estimate geographic accessibility. Results: Of 93 facilities in 14 provinces and municipalities in northern China, only 30.1% had full specialist capacity. The shortage of pediatric cardiologists and mechanical circulatory support was the primary limiting factor. In 2018, 61.3% of facilities performed <200 CHS cases, and 31.6% of all CHS cases (N = 30,921) were performed in limited facilities with substantially lower volume than full-capacity facilities (median value: 85.0 vs. 368.0). Beijing had a disproportionately higher CHS volume (367 cases per million population) than other provinces. Of all children under 5 in northern China, only 12.9% live within 30 km (a typical half-day visit) of the service areas of all facilities. Compared to children from the eastern region (31.4%), 71.8% of children from the central region and 70.2% of children from the western region needed to travel >180 km (a typical overnight visit) to receive care in full-capacity facilities. Conclusions: Many facilities for CHS in northern China had limited specialist capacity, and many CHD patients received suboptimal surgical care. Policy measures should address the significant geographic disparities to receive high-quality surgical care among disadvantaged patients.

Impact of Family Socioeconomic Status on Health-Related Quality of Life in Children With Critical Congenital Heart Disease.

Background Socioeconomic status ( SES ) is associated with health-related quality of life ( HRQOL ) for children with critical congenital heart disease; however, literature from newly industrialized countries is scarce. Methods and Results This cross-sectional study included 2037 surviving patients operated on for critical congenital heart disease at a tertiary hospital in China between May 2012 and December 2015. All eligible patients were aged 2 to 12 years. HRQOL was measured by the Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory 4.0 generic and 3.0 cardiac modules. Family SES was assessed by a composite of household income in the past year and occupation and education level of each parent in the family. Mean scores of major domains in HRQOL were significantly lower in the low- SES group than in the medium- and high- SES groups (total generic scores: 71.2±7.9 versus 75.0±8.0 and 76.0±7.9, respectively [ P<0.001]; psychosocial functioning: 70.8±9.0 versus 74.4±8.4 and 75.3±8.4 [ P<0.001]; physical functioning: 71.6±10.4 versus 76.0±9.7 and 77.1±9.4 [ P<0.001]; heart symptoms: 71.9±11.6 versus 75.7±11.0 and 76.8±10.3 [ P<0.001]; cognitive problems: 65.4±11.1 versus 69.4±12.1 and 74.6±13.6 [ P<0.001]). After adjustment for other clinical and demographic variables in the multivariable linear regression model, family SES significantly affected all dimensions of HRQOL except for treatment barriers, treatment anxiety, physical appearance and communication. Conclusions Family SES is an important factor associated with HRQOL in patients with critical congenital heart disease. Further targeted interventions to improve HRQOL that consider the family and environmental issues confronted by those who are economically disadvantaged might help these patients have better outcomes.