Mortality in Four Waves of COVID-19 Is Differently Associated with Healthcare Capacities Affected by Economic Disparities.

BACKGROUND: The greatest challenges are imposed on the overall capacity of disease management when the cases reach the maximum in each wave of the pandemic. METHODS: The cases and deaths for the four waves of COVID-19 in 119 countries and regions (CRs) were collected. We compared the mortality across CRs where populations experience different economic and healthcare disparities. FINDINGS: Among 119 CRs, 117, 112, 111, and 55 have experienced 1, 2, 3, and 4 waves of COVID-19 disease, respectively. The average mortality rates at the disease turning point were 0.036, 0.019. 0.017, and 0.015 for the waves 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Among 49 potential factors, income level, gross national income (GNI) per capita, and school enrollment are positively correlated with the mortality rates in the first wave, but negatively correlated with the rates of the rest of the waves. Their values for the first wave are 0.253, 0.346 and 0.385, respectively. The r value for waves 2, 3, and 4 are -0.310, -0.293, -0.234; -0.263, -0.284, -0.282; and -0.330, -0.394, -0.048, respectively. In high-income CRs, the mortality rates in waves 2 and 3 were 29% and 28% of that in wave 1; while in upper-middle-income CRs, the rates for waves 2 and 3 were 76% and 79% of that in wave 1. The rates in waves 2 and 3 for lower-middle-income countries were 88% and 89% of that in wave 1, and for low-income countries were 135% and 135%. Furthermore, comparison among the largest case numbers through all waves indicated that the mortalities in upper- and lower-middle-income countries is 65% more than that of the high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Conclusions from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic do not apply to the following waves. The clinical outcomes in developing countries become worse along with the expansion of the pandemic.

Variations of COVID-19 mortality are affected by economic disparities across countries.

BACKGROUND: When the COVID-19 case number reaches a maximum in a country, its capacity and management of health system face greatest challenge. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study on data of turning points for cases and deaths for the first three waves of COVID-19 in countries with more than 5000 cumulative cases, as reported by Worldometers and WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard. We compared the case fatality rates (CFRs) and time lags (in unit of day) between the turning points of cases and deaths among countries in different development stages and potential influence factors. As of May 10, 2021, 106 out of 222 countries or regions (56%) reported more than 5000 cases. Approximately half of them have experienced all the three waves of COVID-19 disease. The average mortality rate at the disease turning point was 0.038 for the first wave, 0.020 for the second wave, and 0.023 for wave 3. In high-income countries, the mortality rates during the first wave are higher than that of the other income levels. However, the mortality rates during the second and third waves of COVID-19 were much lower than those of the first wave, with a significant reduction from 5.7% to 1.7% approximately 70%. At the same time, high-income countries exhibited a 2-fold increase in time lags during the second and the third waves compared to the first wave, suggesting that the periods between the cases and deaths turning point extended. High rates in the first wave in developed countries are associated to multiple factors including transportation, population density, and aging populations. In upper middle- and lower middle-income countries, the decreasing of mortality rates in the second and third waves were subtle or even reversed, with increased mortality during the following waves. In the upper and lower middle-income countries, the time lags were about 50% of the durations observed from high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: Economy and medical resources affect the efficiency of COVID-19 mitigation and the clinical outcomes of the patients. The situation is likely to become even worse in the light of these countries' limited ability to combat COVID-19 and prevent severe outcomes or deaths as the new variant transmission becomes dominant.

A cost-effective plan for global testing - an infection rate stratified, algorithm guided, multiple-level, continuously pooled testing strategy.

The most effective measure to prevent or stop the spread of infectious diseases is the early identification and isolation of infected individuals through comprehensive screening. At present, in the COVID-19 pandemic, such screening is often limited to isolated regions as determined by local governments. Screening of potentially infectious individuals should be conducted through coordinated national or global unified actions. Our current research focuses on using resources to conduct comprehensive national and regional regular testing with a risk rate based, algorithmic guided, multiple-level, pooled testing strategy. Here, combining methodologies with mathematical logistic models, we present an analytic procedure of an overall plan for coordinating state, national, or global testing. The proposed plan includes three parts 1) organization, resource allocation, and distribution; 2) screening based on different risk levels and business types; and 3) algorithm guided, multiple level, continuously screening the entire population in a region. This strategy will overcome the false positive and negative results in the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test and missing samples during initial tests. Based on our proposed protocol, the population screening of 300,000,000 in the US can be done weekly with between 15,000,000 and 6,000,000 test kits. The strategy can be used for population screening for current COVID-19 and any future severe infectious disease when drugs or vaccines are not available.

Assessment of relationship on excess arsenic intake from drinking water and cognitive impairment in adults and elders in arsenicosis areas.

In this study, the relationships between high water arsenic exposure and cognitive impairment were investigated. A total of 483 residents aged 40 or older were randomly recruited and were divided into four groups according to the concentrations of arsenic in their water. Consumption levels (̄x¯±sd) of drinking water arsenic for normal, mild, moderate, and high exposure groups were 4±2µg/L, 25±11µg/L, 73±15µg/L, and 183±88µg/L, respectively. The average scores (̄x¯±sd) of the Chinese version Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) for females in each group were 21.49±3.14, 19.04±5.87, 16.18±8.14, and 15.82±7.78, and the average scores (̄x¯±sd) for males were 24.50±3.97, 23.16±4.45, 21.00±6.57, and 18.92±7.99, respectively. Significant differences among the average scores of MMSE for males or females in the four groups were found (p<0.05). The prevalence of cognitive impairment for females in each group was 10.86%, 29.63%, 53.48%, and 55.29%, and the prevalence of cognitive impairment for males was 10.71%, 12.00%, 35.71%, and 50.89%, respectively. Significant differences between all groups were observed (p<0.05). In the multivariable regress model, high water was closely associated with the MMSE score (Standardized Coefficient=-0.021) and cognitive impairment (arsenic ˃100 µg/L PR4/1=4.01). The findings of our research suggested a significant positive relationship between arsenic exposure from drinking water and cognitive impairment.

Assessment of relationship on excess fluoride intake from drinking water and carotid atherosclerosis development in adults in fluoride endemic areas, China.

Cross-sectional analysis was conducted to access the relationships between developing carotid artery atherosclerosis through consuming high fluoride in drinking water and its possible mechanism, using the baseline data collected from 585 study subjects. In the cross sectional analysis, subjects were divided into four groups based on the concentrations of fluoride in their drinking water. The range of fluoride concentrations was: normal group (less than 1.20 mg/L), mild group (1.21-2.00 mg/L), moderate group (2.01-3.00 mg/L), and high concentration group (more than 3.01 mg/L). The prevalence rate of carotid artery atherosclerosis in the subjects in each group was found to be 16.13%, 27.22%, 27.10%, and 29.69%, respectively. Significant difference between the prevalence of carotid artery atherosclerosis in the mild, moderate and high fluoride exposure group and in the normal group was observed (P<0.05). In addition, it was found that elevated intercellular cell adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and reduced glutathione peroxidases (GPx) was associated with carotid artery atherosclerosis in fluoride endemic areas. The findings of the research study revealed a significant positive relationship between excess fluoride exposure from drinking water and prevalence of carotid artery atherosclerosis in adults living in fluoride endemic areas. The possible mechanism was the excess fluoride induced the decreasing level of GPx causing the systemic inflammation and endothelial activation by oxidative stress.

An assessment of the relationship between excess fluoride intake from drinking water and essential hypertension in adults residing in fluoride endemic areas.

In this study, the relationships between high water fluoride exposure and essential hypertension as well as plasma ET-1 levels were investigated. A total of 487 residents aged 40 to 75 were randomly recruited from eight villages in Zhaozhou County from Heilongjiang Province in China and were divided into 4 groups according to the concentrations of fluoride in their water. Consumption levels of drinking water fluoride for normal, mild, moderate, and high exposure groups were 0.84±0.26 mg/L, 1.55±0.22 mg/L, 2.49±0.30 mg/L, and 4.06±1.15 mg/L, respectively. The prevalence of hypertension in each group was 20.16%, 24.54%, 32.30%, and 49.23%, respectively. There were significant differences between all the groups; namely, with the increase in water fluoride concentrations, the risk of essential hypertension in adults grows in a concentration-dependent manner. Significant differences were observed in the plasma ET-1 levels between the different groups (P<0.0001). In the multivariable logistic regression model, high water fluoride concentrations (F(-)≥3.01 mg/L, OR(4/1)=2.84), age (OR(3/1)=2.63), and BMI (OR(2/1)=2.40, OR(3/1)=6.03) were closely associated with essential hypertension. In other words, the study not only confirmed the relationship between excess fluoride intake and essential hypertension in adults, but it also demonstrated that high levels of fluoride exposure in drinking water could increase plasma ET-1 levels in subjects living in fluoride endemic areas.