The Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce: Projections for 2030.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The goals of this study were to determine the current and projected supply in 2030 of contributors to emergency care, including emergency residency-trained and board-certified physicians, other physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. In addition, this study was designed to determine the current and projected demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians. METHODS: To forecast future workforce supply and demand, sources of existing data were used, assumptions based on past and potential future trends were determined, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the final forecast would be subject to variance in the baseline inputs and assumptions. Methods included: (1) estimates of the baseline workforce supply of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants; (2) estimates of future changes in the raw numbers of persons entering and leaving that workforce; (3) estimates of the productivity of the workforce; and (4) estimates of the demand for emergency care services. The methodology assumes supply equals demand in the base year and estimates the change between the base year and 2030; it then compares supply and demand in 2030 under different scenarios. RESULTS: The task force consensus was that the most likely future scenario is described by: 2% annual graduate medical education growth, 3% annual emergency physician attrition, 20% encounters seen by a nurse practitioner or physician assistant, and 11% increase in emergency department visits relative to 2018. This scenario would result in a surplus of 7,845 emergency physicians in 2030. CONCLUSION: The specialty of emergency medicine is facing the likely oversupply of emergency physicians in 2030. The factors leading to this include the increasing supply of and changing demand for emergency physicians. An organized, collective approach to a balanced workforce by the specialty of emergency medicine is imperative.

Assessment of a rtPCR for the detection of virulent and benign Dichelobacter nodosus, the causative agent of ovine footrot, in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Ovine footrot is a highly contagious bacterial disease of sheep, costing the Australian sheep industry millions of dollars annually. Dichelobacter nodosus, the causative agent of footrot, is a gram-negative anaerobe classed into virulent and benign strains as determined by thermostability of their respective protesases. Current methods for detection of D. nodosus are difficult and time-consuming, however new molecular techniques capable of rapidly detecting and typing D. nodosus have been reported. RESULTS: A competitive real-time PCR (rtPCR) method, based on the ability to detect a 2 nucleotide difference in the aprV2 (virulent) and aprB2 (benign) extracellular protease gene has been tested on Australian samples for determining detection rates, along with clinically relevant cut-off values and performance in comparison to the traditional culturing methods. The rtPCR assay was found to have a specificity of 98.3% for virulent and 98.7% for benign detection from samples collected. Sheep with clinical signs of footrot showed a detection rate for virulent strains of 81.1% and for benign strains of 18.9%. A cut-off value of a Ct of 35 was found to be the most appropriate for use in Victoria for detection of sheep carrying virulent D. nodosus. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, the rtPCR assay is significantly more capable of detecting D. nodosus than culturing, while there is no significant difference seen in virotyping between the two methods.

Emergent Dialysis and its Impact on Quality of Life in Undocumented Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to define the ethnographic composition and assess the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of a large population of undocumented patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) seeking emergent dialysis in the emergency department (ED) of a large public hospital in the United States. DESIGN: All ESRD patients presenting to the hospital's main ED were identified during a 4-week consecutive enrollment period. Consenting patients completed two surveys-an ethnographic questionnaire and the validated kidney disease quality of life-36 (KDQOL-36) instrument. SETTING: The study was conducted at a large county hospital in Dallas, Texas. In 2013, the hospital recorded >50,000 ED visits and administered approximately 6,000 dialysis treatments to ED patients. PARTICIPANTS: 88 of 101 unfunded patients presenting to the ED during the study period consented to participate, resulting in an 87.1% response rate. 65 of these patients were undocumented immigrants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Quantitative scores for the 5 subscales of the KDQOL-36 were calculated for the study population. RESULTS: Measures of physical and mental health in our study population were lower than those published for scheduled dialysis patients. 79.5% of our patients lost employment due to their dialysis requirements. At least 71.4% of the study patients were unaware that they required dialysis before immigrating to the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Quality of life scores were found to be low among our population of undocumented emergent dialysis patients. Our data also provide some evidence that availability of dialysis at no cost is not a primary driver of illegal immigration of ESRD patients to the United States.

Impact of Insurance Status on Outcomes and Use of Rehabilitation Services in Acute Ischemic Stroke: Findings From Get With The Guidelines-Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Insurance status affects access to care, which may affect health outcomes. The objective was to determine whether patients without insurance or with government-sponsored insurance had worse quality of care or in-hospital outcomes in acute ischemic stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multivariable logistic regressions with generalized estimating equations stratified by age under or at least 65 years were adjusted for patient demographics and comorbidities, presenting factors, and hospital characteristics to determine differences in in-hospital mortality and postdischarge destination. We included 589 320 ischemic stroke patients treated at 1604 US hospitals participating in the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke program between 2012 and 2015. Uninsured patients with hypertension, high cholesterol, or diabetes mellitus were less likely to be taking appropriate control medications prior to stroke, to use an ambulance to arrive to the ED, or to arrive early after symptom onset. Even after adjustment, the uninsured were more likely than the privately insured to die in the hospital (<65 years, OR 1.33 [95% CI 1.22-1.45]; ≥65 years OR 1.54 [95% CI 1.34-1.75]), and among survivors, were less likely to go to inpatient rehab (<65 OR 0.63 [95% CI 0.6-0.67]; ≥65 OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.5-0.63]). In contrast, patients with Medicare and Medicaid were more likely to be discharged to a Skilled Nursing Facility (<65 years OR 2.08 [CI 1.96-2.2]; OR 2.01 [95% CI 1.91-2.13]; ≥65 years OR 1.1 [95% CI 1.07-1.13]; OR 1.41 [95% CI 1.35-1.46]). CONCLUSIONS: Preventative care prior to ischemic stroke, time to presentation for acute treatment, access to rehabilitation, and in-hospital mortality differ by patient insurance status.

Acute management of stroke patients taking non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants Addressing Real-world Anticoagulant Management Issues in Stroke (ARAMIS) Registry: Design and rationale.

BACKGROUND: Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban) have been increasingly used as alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis in patients with atrial fibrillation. Yet there is substantial lack of information on how patients on NOACs are currently treated when they have an acute ischemic stroke and the best strategies for treating intracerebral hemorrhage for those on chronic anticoagulation with warfarin or a NOAC. These are critical unmet needs for real world clinical decision making in these emergent patients. METHODS: The ARAMIS Registry is a multicenter cohort study of acute stroke patients who were taking chronic anticoagulation therapy prior to admission and are admitted with either an acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage. Built upon the existing infrastructure of American Heart Association/American Stroke Association Get With the Guidelines Stroke, the ARAMIS Registry will enroll a total of approximately 10,000 patients (5000 with acute ischemic stroke who are taking a NOAC and 5000 with anticoagulation-related intracerebral hemorrhage who are on warfarin or a NOAC). The primary goals of the ARAMIS Registry are to provide a comprehensive picture of current treatment patterns and outcomes of acute ischemic stroke patients on NOACs, as well as anticoagulation-related intracerebral hemorrhage in patients on either warfarin or NOACs. Beyond characterizing the index hospitalization, up to 2500 patients (1250 ischemic stroke and 1250 intracerebral hemorrhage) who survive to discharge will be enrolled in an optional follow-up sub-study and interviewed at 3 and 6 months after discharge to assess longitudinal medication use, downstream care, functional status, and patient-reported outcomes. CONCLUSION: The ARAMIS Registry will document the current state of management of NOAC treated patients with acute ischemic stroke as well as contemporary care and outcome of anticoagulation-related intracerebral hemorrhage. These data will be used to better understand optimal strategies to care for these complex but increasingly common emergent real world clinical challenges.

Fellowships in international emergency medicine in the USA: a comparative survey of program directors' and fellows' perspectives on the curriculum.

OBJECTIVE: Experts have proposed core curriculum components for international emergency medicine (IEM) fellowships. This study examined perceptions of program directors (PDs) and fellows on whether IEM fellowships cover these components, whether their perspectives differ and the barriers preventing fellowships from covering them. METHODS: From 1 November 2011 to 30 November 2011, a survey was administered to PDs, current fellows and recent graduates of the 34 US IEM fellowships. Respondents quantified their fellowship experience in six proposed core curriculum areas: emergency medicine (EM) systems development, EM education, humanitarian assistance, public health, emergency medical services and disaster medicine. Analysis was performed regarding what per cent of programmes fulfil the six curriculum areas. A paired t test determined the difference between PDs' and fellows' responses. Agreement between PDs and fellows within the same programme was determined using a κ statistic. RESULTS: Only 1/18 (6%) (according to fellows) to 2/24 (8%) (according to PDs) of programmes expose fellows to all six components. PDs consistently reported higher exposure than fellows. The difference in mean score between PDs and fellows was statistically significant (p<0.05) in three of the 6 (50%) core curriculum elements: humanitarian aid, public health and disaster medicine. Per cent agreement between PDs and fellows within each programmes ranged from poor to fair. CONCLUSIONS: While IEM fellowships have varying structure, this study highlights the importance of further discussion between PDs and fellows regarding delineation and objectives of core curriculum components. Transparent curricula and open communication between PDs and fellows may reduce differences in reported experiences.

REDUCE-PCP study: radiographs in the emergency department utilization criteria evaluation-pediatric chest pain.

BACKGROUND: Many emergency physicians order chest x-rays (CXRs) for pediatric patients who present with a chief complaint of chest pain despite a paucity of research to support this testing, which exposes patients to radiation, cost, and delays. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to begin development of a decision making tool that will allow emergency physicians to selectively obtain CXR films in pediatric patients presenting with chest pain. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 400 consecutive pediatric patients with a chief complaint of chest pain and reviewed charts to determine how many received a CXR and which clinical characteristics were present in all patients. Chest radiograph findings were graded for significance as follows: (1) no or minor clinical significance: normal result in the CXR film without effect on the immediate evaluation of a patient; (2) moderate clinical significance: only impact on plan for follow-up; and (3) major clinical significance: result in the CXR film directly affects immediate management. We then evaluated each chart for historical or examination findings that might identify criteria associated with positive radiographic findings to propose a set of criteria that could lead to the development of a decision rule that allows a reduced utilization while having a high sensitivity for clinically significant positive findings on CXR film. RESULTS: Of the 400 pediatric patients reviewed, 63.5% (n = 254) received a CXR in the emergency department (ED). Of those receiving a CXR, only 8.26% (n = 21) had a finding that affected either ED management or follow-up planning. The criteria that would have identified all patients with positive results in the CXR films were abnormal vital signs, shortness of breath, palpitations, presence of comorbidities, abnormal or unilateral breath sounds, history of trauma, murmur, or cough. CONCLUSIONS: This pilot study demonstrates the potential for a decision rule to eliminate both cost and radiation exposure by using defined criteria to determine the need for a CXR in pediatric ED patients. We identified 8 simple criteria that would have identified all children who benefited from a CXR in this study. The next phase of this study will prospectively evaluate the utility of each of the criteria as part of a draft decision rule.

World Health Assembly Resolution 60.22 and its importance as a health care policy tool for improving emergency care access and availability globally.

The recent adoption of World Health Assembly Resolution 60.22, titled "Health Systems: Emergency Care Systems," has established an important health care policy tool for improving emergency care access and availability globally. The resolution highlights the role that strengthened emergency care systems can play in reducing the increasing burden of disease from acute illness and injury in populations across the socioeconomic spectrum and calls on governments and the World Health Organization to take specific and concrete actions to make this happen. This resolution constitutes recognition by the World Health Assembly of the growing public health role of emergency care systems and is the highest level of international attention ever devoted to emergency care systems worldwide. Emergency care systems for secondary prevention of acute illnesses and injury remain inadequately developed in many low- and middle-income countries, despite evidence that basic strategies for improving emergency care systems can reduce preventable mortality and morbidity and can in many cases also be cost-effective. Emergency care providers and their professional organizations have used their comprehensive expertise to strengthen emergency care systems worldwide through the development of tools for emergency medicine education, systems assessment, quality improvement, and evidence-based clinical practice. World Health Assembly 60.22 represents a unique opportunity for emergency care providers and other advocates for improved emergency care to engage with national and local health care officials and policymakers, as well as with the World Health Organization, and leverage the expertise within the international emergency medicine community to make substantial improvements in emergency care delivery in places where it is most needed.

Community relations and organizations.

Establishing and maintaining excellent relations with organizations in the community that have influence on the hospital ED's success can be critical to the ability of ED leaders to achieve performance objectives and satisfy customers on an ongoing basis. Relationships with public service entities,especially EMS, are particularly important. Although the relationships with other individual community organizations may be of variable importance,the collective effort dictates the impact of the ED's overall organized community relations program and could have a significant effect on the overall success or failure of the ED.