The impact of devolution on local health systems: Evidence from Greater Manchester, England.

Devolution and decentralisation policies involving health and other government sectors have been promoted with a view to improve efficiency and equity in local service provision. Evaluations of these reforms have focused on specific health or care measures, but little is known about their full impact on local health systems. We evaluated the impact of devolution in Greater Manchester (England) on multiple outcomes using a whole system approach. We estimated the impact of devolution until February 2020 on 98 measures of health system performance, using the generalised synthetic control method and adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing. We selected measures from existing monitoring frameworks to populate the WHO Health System Performance Assessment framework. The included measures captured information on health system functions, intermediatory objectives, final goals, and social determinants of health. We identified which indicators were targeted in response to devolution from an analysis of 170 health policy intervention documents. Life expectancy (0.233 years, S.E. 0.012) and healthy life expectancy (0.603 years, S.E. 0.391) increased more in GM than in the estimated synthetic control group following devolution. These increases were driven by improvements in public health, primary care, hospital, and adult social care services as well as factors associated with social determinants of health, including a reduction in alcohol-related admissions (-110.1 admission per 100,000, S.E. 9.07). In contrast, the impact on outpatient, mental health, maternity, and dental services was mixed. Devolution was associated with improved population health, driven by improvements in health services and wider social determinants of health. These changes occurred despite limited devolved powers over health service resources suggesting that other mechanisms played an important role, including the allocation of sustainability and transformation funding and the alignment of decision-making across health, social care, and wider public services in the region.

Economic evaluation of a water fluoridation scheme in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The addition of fluoride to community drinking water supplies has been a long-standing public health intervention to improve dental health. However, the evidence of cost-effectiveness in the UK currently lacks a contemporary focus, being limited to a period with higher incidence of caries. A water fluoridation scheme in West Cumbria, United Kingdom, provided a unique opportunity to study the contemporary impact of water fluoridation. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of water fluoridation over a 5-6 years follow-up period in two distinct cohorts: children exposed to water fluoridation in utero and those exposed from the age of 5. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness was summarized employing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained). Costs included those from the National Health Service (NHS) and local authority perspective, encompassing capital and running costs of water fluoridation, as well as NHS dental activity. The measure of health benefit was the QALY, with utility determined using the Child Health Utility 9-Dimension questionnaire. To account for uncertainty, estimates of net cost and outcomes were bootstrapped (10 000 bootstraps) to generate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis performed with alternative specifications. RESULTS: There were 306 participants in the birth cohort (189 and 117 in the non-fluoridated and fluoridated groups, respectively) and 271 in the older school cohort (159 and 112, respectively). In both cohorts, there was evidence of small gains in QALYs for the fluoridated group compared to the non-fluoridated group and reductions in NHS dental service cost that exceeded the cost of fluoridation. For both cohorts and across all sensitivity analyses, there were high probabilities (>62%) of water fluoridation being cost-effective with a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides current economic evidence that water fluoridation is likely to be cost-effective. The findings contribute valuable contemporary evidence in support of the economic viability of water fluoridation scheme.

How do hospitals respond to payment unbundling for diagnostic imaging of suspected cancer patients?

Payments for some diagnostic scans undertaken in outpatient settings were unbundled from Diagnosis Related Group based payments in England in April 2013 to address under-provision. Unbundled scans attracted additional payments of between £45 and £748 directly following the reform. We examined the effect on utilization of these scans for patients with suspected cancer. We also explored whether any detected effects represented real increases in use of scans or better coding of activity. We applied difference-in-differences regression to patient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics for 180 NHS hospital Trusts in England, between April 2010 and March 2018. We also explored heterogeneity in recorded use of scans before and after the unbundling at hospital Trust-level. Use of scans increased by 0.137 scans per patient following unbundling, a 134% relative increase. This increased annual national provider payments by £79.2 million. Over 15% of scans recorded after the unbundling were at providers that previously recorded no scans, suggesting some of the observed increase in activity reflected previous under-coding. Hospitals recorded substantial increases in diagnostic imaging for suspected cancer in response to payment unbundling. Results suggest that the reform also encouraged improvements in recording, so the real increase in testing is likely lower than detected.

Exploring whether primary care networks can contribute to the national goal of reducing health inequalities: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Significant health inequalities exist in England. Primary care networks (PCNs), comprised of GP practices, were introduced in England in 2019 with funding linked to membership. PCNs have been tasked with tackling health inequalities. AIM: To consider how the design and introduction of PCNs might influence their ability to tackle health inequalities. DESIGN AND SETTING: A sequential mixed-methods study of PCNs in England. METHOD: Linear regression of annual PCN-allocated funding per workload-weighted patient on income deprivation score from 2019-2023 was used. Qualitative interviews and observations of PCNs and PCN staff were undertaken across seven PCN sites in England (July 2020-March 2022). RESULTS: Across 1243 networks in 2019-2020, a 10% higher level of income deprivation resulted in £0.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = £0.25 to £0.37), 4.50%, less funding per weighted patient. In 2022-2023, the same difference in deprivation resulted in £0.16 (95% CI = £0.11 to £0.21), 0.60%, more funding. Qualitative interviews highlighted that, although there were requirements for PCNs to tackle health inequalities, the policy design, and PCN internal relationships and maturity, shaped and sometimes restricted how PCNs approached this task locally. CONCLUSION: Allocated PCN funding has become more pro-poor over time, suggesting that the need to account for deprivation within funding models is understood by policymakers. The following additional approaches have been highlighted that could support PCNs to tackle inequalities: better management support; encouragement and support to redistribute funding internally to support practices serving more deprived populations; and greater specificity in service requirements.

Evaluating whole system reforms: A structured approach for selecting multiple outcomes.

Whole-system reforms, including devolution and integration of health and social care services, have the potential to impact multiple dimensions of health system performance. Most evaluations focus on a single or narrow subsets of outcomes amenable to change. This approach may not: (i) capture the overall effect of the reform, (ii) identify the mechanisms through which system-wide changes may have occurred, (iii) prevent post-hoc selection of outcomes based on significant results; and (iv) facilitate comparisons across settings. We propose a structured approach for selecting multiple quantitative outcome measures, which we apply for evaluating health and social care devolution in Greater Manchester, England. The approach consists of five-steps: (i) defining outcome domains based on a framework, in our case the World Health Organisation's Health System Performance Assessment Framework; (ii) reviewing performance metrics from national monitoring frameworks; (iii) excluding similar and condition specific outcomes; (iv) excluding outcomes with insufficient data; and (v) mapping implemented policies to identify a subset of targeted outcomes. We identified 99 outcomes, of which 57 were targeted. The proposed approach is detail and time-intensive, but useful for both researchers and policymakers to promote transparency in evaluations and facilitate the interpretation of findings and cross-settings comparisons.

Evaluating the Short-Term Costs and Benefits of a Nationwide Diabetes Prevention Programme in England: Retrospective Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Prevention programmes typically incur short-term costs and uncertain long-term benefits. We use the National Health Service (NHS) England Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS-DPP) to investigate whether behaviour change programmes may be cost-effective even within the short-term participation period. METHODS: We analysed 384,611 referrals between June 2016 and March 2019. We estimated NHS costs using implementation costs and provider payments. We used linear regressions to relate utility changes to the number of sessions attended, based on responses to the five-level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) at baseline and final session for 18,959 participants. We then calculated the corresponding quality-adjusted life year (QALY) change for all 384,611 referrals by combining the estimated regression coefficients with the observed level of attendance, with individuals that did not attend any programme sessions being assumed to experience zero benefit. In secondary analysis, we added weight change, recorded for 18,105 participants to the regression and applied predicted values to all referrals with missing weight change values estimated using multiple imputation with chained equations. We then estimated the cost-per-QALY generated. RESULTS: Average cost per referral was £119 (standard deviation: £118; 2020 price year, UK £ Sterling). Each session attended was associated with a 0.0042 increase in utility (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0025-0.0059). This generated 1,773 QALYs across all referrals (95% CI: 889-2,656). Cost-per-QALY was £24,929 (95% CI: £16,635-49,720) when implementation costs were excluded. Secondary analysis showed each session attended and kilogram of weight lost were associated with 0.0034 (95% CI: 0.0016-0.0051) and 0.0025 (95% CI: 0.0020-0.0031) increases in utility, respectively. These generated 1,542 QALYs, at a cost-per-QALY of £28,661 when implementation costs were excluded. CONCLUSION: Participants experienced small utility gains from session attendance and weight loss during their programme participation. These benefits alone made this low-cost behaviour change programme potentially cost-effective in the short-term.

Evaluating socioeconomic inequalities in influenza vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cohort study in Greater Manchester, England.

BACKGROUND: There are known socioeconomic inequalities in annual seasonal influenza (flu) vaccine uptake. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was associated with multiple factors that may have affected flu vaccine uptake, including widespread disruption to healthcare services, changes to flu vaccination eligibility and delivery, and increased public awareness and debate about vaccination due to high-profile COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. However, to the best of our knowledge, no existing studies have investigated the consequences for inequalities in flu vaccine uptake, so we aimed to investigate whether socioeconomic inequalities in flu vaccine uptake have widened since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used deidentified data from electronic health records for a large city region (Greater Manchester, population 2.8 million), focusing on 3 age groups eligible for National Health Service (NHS) flu vaccination: preschool children (age 2 to 3 years), primary school children (age 4 to 9 years), and older adults (age 65 years plus). The sample population varied between 418,790 (2015/16) and 758,483 (2021/22) across each vaccination season. We estimated age-adjusted neighbourhood-level income deprivation-related inequalities in flu vaccine uptake using Cox proportional hazards models and the slope index of inequality (SII), comparing 7 flu vaccination seasons (2015/16 to 2021/22). Among older adults, the SII (i.e., the gap in uptake between the least and most income-deprived areas) doubled over the 7 seasons from 8.48 (95% CI [7.91,9.04]) percentage points to 16.91 (95% CI [16.46,17.36]) percentage points, with approximately 80% of this increase occurring during the pandemic. Before the pandemic, income-related uptake gaps were wider among children, ranging from 15.59 (95% CI [14.52,16.67]) percentage points to 20.07 (95% CI [18.94,21.20]) percentage points across age groups and vaccination seasons. Among preschool children, the uptake gap increased in 2020/21 to 25.25 (95% CI [24.04,26.45]) percentage points, before decreasing to 20.86 (95% CI [19.65,22.05]) percentage points in 2021/22. Among primary school children, inequalities increased in both pandemic years to reach 30.27 (95% CI [29.58,30.95]) percentage points in 2021/22. Although vaccine uptake increased during the pandemic, disproportionately larger increases in uptake in less deprived areas created wider inequalities in all age groups. The main limitation of our approach is the use of a local dataset, which may limit generalisability to other geographical settings. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic led to increased inequalities in flu vaccine uptake, likely due to changes in demand for vaccination, new delivery models, and disruptions to healthcare and schooling. It will be important to investigate the causes of these increased inequalities and to examine whether these increased inequalities also occurred in the uptake of other routine vaccinations. These new wider inequalities in flu vaccine uptake may exacerbate inequalities in flu-related morbidity and mortality.

Analysing changes to the flow of public funding within local health and care systems: An adaptation of the System of Health Accounts framework to a local health system in England.

Financial flows relating to health care are routinely analysed at national and international level. They have rarely been systematically analysed at local level, despite sub-national variation due to population needs and decisions enacted by local organisations. We illustrate an adaptation of the System of Health Accounts framework to map the flow of public health and care funding within local systems, with an application for Greater Manchester (GM), an area in England which agreed a health and social care devolution deal with the central government in 2016. We analyse how financial flows changed in GM during the four years post-devolution, and whether spending was aligned with local ambitions to move towards prevention of ill-health and integration of health and social care. We find that GM decreased spending on public health by 15%, and increased spending on general practice by 0.1% in real terms. The share of total local expenditure paid to NHS Trusts for general and acute services increased from 70.3% to 71.6%, while that for community services decreased from 11.7% to 10.3%. Results suggest that GM may have experienced challenges in redirecting resources towards their goals. Mapping financial flows at a local level is a useful exercise to examine whether spending is aligned with system goals and highlight areas for further investigation.

How new clinical roles in primary care impact on equitable distribution of workforce: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: There are inequalities in the geographical distribution of the primary care workforce in England. Primary care networks (PCNs), and the associated Additional Roles Reimbursement Scheme (ARRS) funding, have stimulated employment of new healthcare roles. However, it is not clear whether this will impact inequalities. AIM: To examine whether the ARRS impacted inequality in the distribution of the primary care workforce. DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective before-and-after study of English PCNs in 2019 and 2022. METHOD: The study combined workforce, population, and deprivation data at network level for March 2019 and March 2022. The change was estimated between 2019 and 2022 in the slope index of inequality (SII) across deprivation of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs (total doctors, qualified GPs, and doctors-in-training), nurses, direct patient care, administrative, ARRS and non- ARRS, and total staff per 10 000 patients. RESULTS: A total of 1255 networks were included. Nurses and qualified GPs decreased in number while all other staff roles increased, with ARRS staff having the greatest increase. There was a pro- rich change in the SII for administrative staff (-0.482, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.841 to -0.122, P<0.01) and a pro- poor change for doctors-in-training (0.161, 95% CI = 0.049 to 0.274, P<0.01). Changes in distribution of all other staff types were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: Between 2019 and 2022 the distribution of administrative staff became less pro-poor, and doctors-in-training became pro-poor. The changes in inequality in all other staff groups were mixed. The introduction of PCNs has not substantially changed the longstanding inequalities in the geographical distribution of the primary care workforce.

Could diabetes prevention programmes result in the widening of sociodemographic inequalities in type 2 diabetes? Comparison of survey and administrative data for England.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) in England is a behavioural intervention for preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). How this programme affects inequalities by age, sex, limiting illnesses or disability, ethnicity or deprivation is not known. METHODS: We used multinomial and binary logistic regression models to compare whether the population with NDH at different stages of the programme are representative of the population with NDH: stages include (1) prevalence of NDH (using survey data from UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=794) and Health Survey for England (n=1383)); (2) identification in primary care and offer of programme (using administrative data from the National Diabetes Audit (n=1 267 350)) and (3) programme participation (using programme provider records (n=98 024)). RESULTS: Predicted probabilities drawn from the regressions with demographics as each outcome and dataset identifier as predictors showed that younger adults (aged under 40) (4% of the population with NDH (95% CI 2.4% to 6.5%)) and older adults (aged 80 and above) (12% (95% CI 9.5% to 14.2%)) were slightly under-represented among programme participants (2% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%) and 8% (95% CI 7.8% to 8.2%) of programme participants, respectively). People living in deprived areas were under-represented in eight sessions (14% (95% CI 13.7% to 14.4%) vs 20% (95% CI 16.4% to 23.6%) in the general population). Ethnic minorities were over-represented among offers (35% (95% CI 35.1% to 35.6%) vs 13% (95% CI 9.1% to 16.4%) in general population), though the proportion dropped at the programme completion stage (19% (95% CI 18.5% to 19.5%)). CONCLUSION: The DPP has the potential to reduce ethnic inequalities, but may widen socioeconomic, age and limiting illness or disability-related inequalities in T2DM. While ethnic minority groups are over-represented at the identification and offer stages, efforts are required to support completion of the programme. Programme providers should target under-represented groups to ensure equitable access and narrow inequalities in T2DM.

Estimating the heterogeneous health and well-being returns to social participation.

Social participation is defined as an individual's involvement in activities that provide connections with others in society. Past research has demonstrated links between social participation, improved health and well-being, and reduced social isolation, but has been restricted to older people and has not investigated heterogeneity. Using cross-sectional data from the UK's Community Life Survey (2013-2019; N = 50,006), we estimated returns to social participation in the adult population. We included availability of community assets as instruments in a marginal treatment effects model, which allows treatment effects to be heterogeneous and examines whether the effects vary by propensity to participate. Social participation was linked to reduced loneliness and improved health (-0.96 and 0.40 points respectively on 1-5 scales) and increased life satisfaction and happiness (2.17 and 2.03 points respectively on 0-10 scales). These effects were larger for those on low income, with lower education attainment, and who live alone or with no children. We also found negative selection, indicating those less likely to participate have higher health and well-being returns. Future interventions could focus on increasing community asset infrastructure and encouraging social participation for those with lower socio-economic status.

Spillover effects of financial incentives for providers onto non-targeted patients: daycase surgery in English hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Incentives for healthcare providers may also affect non-targeted patients. These spillover effects have important implications for the full impact and evaluation of incentive schemes. However, there are few studies on the extent of such spillovers in health care. We investigated whether incentives to perform surgical procedures as daycases affected whether other elective procedures in the same specialties were also treated as daycases. DATA: 8,505,754 patients treated for 92 non-targeted procedures in 127 hospital trusts in England between April and March 2016. METHODS: Interrupted time series analysis of the probability of being treated as a daycase for non-targeted patients treated in six specialties where targeted patients were also treated and three specialties where they were not. RESULTS: The daycase rate initially increased (1.04 percentage points, SE: 0.30) for patients undergoing a non-targeted procedure in incentivised specialties but then reduced over time. Conversely, the daycase rate gradually decreased over time for patients treated in a non-incentivised specialty. DISCUSSION: Spillovers from financial incentives have variable effects over different activities and over time. Policymakers and researchers should consider the possibility of spillovers in the design and evaluation of incentive schemes.

Estimated impact from the withdrawal of primary care financial incentives on selected indicators of quality of care in Scotland: controlled interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the withdrawal of the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) scheme in primary care in Scotland in 2016 had an impact on selected recorded quality of care, compared with England where the scheme continued. DESIGN: Controlled interrupted time series regression analysis. SETTING: General practices in Scotland and England. PARTICIPANTS: 979 practices with 5 599 171 registered patients in Scotland, and 7921 practices with 56 270 628 registered patients in England in 2013-14, decreasing to 864 practices in Scotland and 6873 in England in 2018-19, mainly due to practice mergers. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in quality of care at one year and three years after withdrawal of QOF financial incentives in Scotland at the end of the 2015-16 financial year for 16 indicators (two complex processes, nine intermediate outcomes, and five treatments) measured annually for financial years from 2013-14 to 2018-19. RESULTS: A significant decrease in performance was observed for 12 of the 16 quality of care indicators in Scotland one year after QOF was abolished and for 10 of the 16 indicators three years after QOF was abolished, compared with England. At three years, the absolute percentage point difference between Scotland and England was largest for recording (by tick box) of mental health care planning (-40.2 percentage points, 95% confidence interval -45.5 to -35.0) and diabetic foot screening (-22.8, -33.9 to -11.7). Substantial reductions were, however, also observed for intermediate outcomes, including blood pressure control in patients with peripheral arterial disease (-18.5, -22.1 to -14.9), stroke or transient ischaemic attack (-16.6, -20.6 to -12.7), hypertension (-13.7, -19.4 to -7.9), diabetes (-12.7, -15.0 to -12.4), or coronary heart disease (-12.8, -14.9 to -10.8), and for glycated haemoglobin control in people with HbA1c levels ≤75 mmol/mol (-5.0, -8.4 to -1.5). No significant differences were observed between Scotland and England for influenza immunisation and antiplatelet or anticoagulant treatment for coronary heart disease three years after withdrawal of incentives. CONCLUSION: The abolition of financial incentives in Scotland was associated with reductions in recorded quality of care for most performance indicators. Changes to pay for performance should be carefully designed and implemented to monitor and respond to any reductions in care quality.

Does recruiting patients to diabetes prevention programmes via primary care reinforce existing inequalities in care provision between general practices? A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Primary care plays a crucial role in identifying patients' needs and referring at-risk individuals to preventive services. However, well-established variations in care delivery may be replicated in this prevention activity. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether recruiting patients to the English NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme via primary care reinforces existing inequalities in care provision between practices, in terms of clinical quality, accessibility and resources. METHODS: We generated annual practice-level counts of referrals across the first 4 years of the programme (June 2016 to March 2020). These were linked to 15 indicators of practice clinical quality, access and resources measured during 2018/19. We used random effects Poisson regressions to examine associations between referrals and these indicators, controlling for practice and population characteristics, for 6871 practices in England. RESULTS: On average, practices made 3.72 referrals per 1000 population annually and rates varied substantially between practices. Referral rates were positively associated with the quality of clinical care provided. A 1 SD higher level of achievement on Quality and Outcomes Framework diabetes indicators was associated with an 11% (95% CI: 8% to 14%) higher referral rate. This positive association was consistent across all five clinical quality indicators. There was no association between referral rates and accessibility, overall payments or staffing. Associations between referrals and receiving different supplementary payments over the core contract were mixed, with 8%-11% lower referral rates for some payments but not for others. CONCLUSION: Recruiting patients to diabetes prevention programmes via primary care reinforces existing inequalities between general practices in the clinical quality of care they provide. This leaves patients registered with practices providing lower quality clinical care even more disadvantaged. Providing additional support to lower quality practices or using alternative recruitment methods may be necessary to avoid differential engagement in prevention programmes from widening these variations and potential health inequalities further.

Emergency department outcomes for patients experiencing homelessness in England: retrospective cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Emergency departments (EDs) are an important point of access to health care for people experiencing homelessness. Evidence suggests that ED attendances by homeless people are more likely to result in leaving the ED without treatment, or dying in the ED. We investigate which diagnoses and patterns of health care use are associated with these (and other) discharge destinations and re-attendance within 7 days among homeless patients. METHODS: We used national hospital data to analyze attendances of all 109 254 people experiencing homelessness who presented at any Type 1 ED in England over 2013-18. We used logistic regression to estimate the association of each outcome with primary diagnosis and patterns of healthcare use. RESULTS: Compared with patients with no past ED use, patients with a high frequency of past ED use were more likely to leave without treatment and re-attend within 7 days. Patients not registered at a general practice were likelier to leave without treatment or die in the ED and had lower odds of unplanned re-attendance. A primary diagnosis of 'social problems' was associated with being discharged without follow-up. Patients with a psychiatric primary diagnosis were disproportionately likely to be referred to another health care professional/provider or an outpatient clinic. CONCLUSIONS: Further research is needed to understand why some homeless patients leave the ED without treatment and whether their healthcare needs are being met. Some patients may be attending the ED frequently due to poor access to other services, such as primary care and social welfare.

Associations between inflexible job conditions, health and healthcare utilisation in England: retrospective cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the strength of association between having an inflexible job and health-related quality of life and healthcare utilisation; and to explore heterogeneity in the effects by gender, age and area-level deprivation. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional study. SETTING: Seven waves of the English General Practice Patient Survey between 2012 and 2017. PARTICIPANTS: 1 232 884 people aged 16-64 years and in full-time employment. We measured job inflexibility by inability to take time away from work during usual working hours to seek medical care. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L); number of months since the respondent last saw a general practitioner (GP) or nurse; use of out-of-hours general practice in the past 6 months. We used regression analyses to estimate the strength of association between outcomes and having an inflexible job, adjusting for person and area-level characteristics. RESULTS: One-third of respondents reported job inflexibility. The probability of job inflexibility was higher at younger ages and in more deprived areas. Job inflexibility was associated with lower EQ-5D-5L utility scores of 0.017 (95% CI 0.016 to 0.018) for women and 0.016 (95% CI 0.015 to 0.017) for men. Women were more affected than men in the mental health domain. The reduction in health-related quality of life associated with having an inflexible job was greater for employees who were older or lived in more deprived areas. Having an inflexible job was associated with a longer time since the last visit to their GP of 0.234 (95% CI 0.201 to 0.268) months for women and 0.199 (95% CI 0.152 to 0.183) months for men. CONCLUSIONS: Inequalities in the prevalence of inflexible jobs contribute to inequalities in health. One mechanism may be through reduced access to healthcare. Policymakers and employers should ensure that all employees have sufficient job flexibility to protect their health.

The effect of devolution on health: a generalised synthetic control analysis of Greater Manchester, England.

BACKGROUND: The devolution of public services from central to local government can increase sensitivity to local population needs but might also reduce the expertise and resources available. Little evidence is available on the impact of devolution on population health. We evaluated the effect of devolution affecting health services and wider determinants of health on life expectancy in Greater Manchester, England. METHODS: We estimated changes in life expectancy in Greater Manchester relative to a control group from the rest of England (excluding London), using a generalised synthetic control method. Using local district-level data collected between Jan 1, 2006 and Dec 31, 2019, we estimated the effect of devolution on the whole population and stratified by sex, district, income deprivation, and baseline life expectancy. FINDINGS: After devolution, from November, 2014, life expectancy in Greater Manchester was 0·196 years (95% CI 0·182-0·210) higher than expected when compared with the synthetic control group with similar pre-devolution trends. Life expectancy was protected from the decline observed in comparable areas in the 2 years after devolution and increased in the longer term. Increases in life expectancy were observed in eight of ten local authorities, were larger among men than women (0·338 years [0·315-0·362] for men; 0·057 years [0·040-0·074] for women), and were larger in areas with high income deprivation (0·390 years [0·369-0·412]) and lower life expectancy before devolution (0·291 years [0·271-0·311]). INTERPRETATION: Greater Manchester had better life expectancy than expected after devolution. The benefits of devolution were apparent in the areas with the highest income deprivation and lowest life expectancy, suggesting a narrowing of inequalities. Improvements were likely to be due to a coordinated devolution across sectors, affecting wider determinants of health and the organisation of care services. FUNDING: The Health Foundation and the National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Socioeconomic inequality in access to timely and appropriate care in emergency departments.

In publicly-funded healthcare systems, waiting times for care should be based on need rather than ability to pay. Studies have shown that individuals with lower socioeconomic status face longer waits for planned inpatient care, but there is little evidence on inequalities in waiting times for emergency care. We study waiting times in emergency departments (EDs) following arrival by ambulance, where health consequences of extended waits may be severe. Using data from all major EDs in England during the 2016/17 financial year, we find patients from more deprived areas face longer waits during some parts of the ED care pathway. Inequalities in waits are small, but more deprived individuals also receive less complex ED care, are less likely to be admitted for inpatient care, and are more likely to re-attend ED or die shortly after attendance. Patient-physician interactions and unconscious bias towards more deprived patients may be important sources of inequalities.

The effects of multi-disciplinary integrated care on healthcare utilization: Evidence from a natural experiment in the UK.

Better integration is a priority for most international health systems. However, multiple interventions are often implemented simultaneously, making evaluation difficult and providing limited evidence for policy makers about specific interventions. We evaluate a common integrated care intervention, multi-disciplinary group (MDG) meetings for discussion of high-risk patients, introduced in one socio-economically deprived area in the UK in spring 2015. Using data from multiple waves of the national GP Patient Survey and Hospital Episode Statistics, we estimate its effects on primary and secondary care utilization and costs, health status and patient experience. We use triple differences, exploiting the targeting at people aged 65 years and over, parsing effects from other population-level interventions implemented simultaneously. The intervention reduced the probability of visiting a primary care nurse by three percentage points and decreased length of stay by 1 day following emergency care admission. However, since planned care use increased, overall costs were unaffected. MDG meetings are presumably fulfilling public health objectives by decreasing length of stay and detecting previously unmet needs. However, the effect of MDGs on health system cost is uncertain and health remains unchanged. Evaluations of specific integrated care interventions may be more useful to public decision makers facing budget constraints.

Family doctor responses to changes in target stringency under financial incentives.

Healthcare providers may game when faced with targets. We examine how family doctors responded to a temporary but substantial increase in the stringency of targets determining payments for controlling blood pressure amongst younger hypertensive patients. We apply difference-in-differences and bunching techniques to data from electronic health records of 107,148 individuals. Doctors did not alter the volume or composition of lists of their hypertension patients. They did increase treatment intensity, including a 1.2 percentage point increase in prescribing antihypertensive medicines. They also undertook more blood pressure measurements. Multiple testing increased by 1.9 percentage points overall and by 8.8 percentage points when first readings failed more stringent target. Exemption of patients from reported performance increased by 0.8 percentage points. Moreover, the proportion of patients recorded as exactly achieving the more stringent target increased by 3.1 percentage points to 16.6%. Family doctors responded as intended and gamed when set more stringent pay-for-performance targets.