Intensive longitudinal assessment following index trauma to predict development of PTSD using machine learning.

There are significant challenges to identifying which individuals require intervention following exposure to trauma, and a need for strategies to identify and provide individuals at risk for developing PTSD with timely interventions. The present study seeks to identify a minimal set of trauma-related symptoms, assessed during the weeks following traumatic exposure, that can accurately predict PTSD. Participants were 2185 adults (Mean age=36.4 years; 64% women; 50% Black) presenting for emergency care following traumatic exposure. Participants received a 'flash survey' with 6-8 varying symptoms (from a pool of 26 trauma symptoms) several times per week for eight weeks following the trauma exposure (each symptom assessed ∼6 times). Features (mean, sd, last, worst, peak-end scores) from the repeatedly assessed symptoms were included as candidate variables in a CART machine learning analysis to develop a pragmatic predictive algorithm. PTSD (PCL-5 ≥38) was present for 669 (31%) participants at the 8-week follow-up. A classification tree with three splits, based on mean scores of nervousness, rehashing, and fatigue, predicted PTSD with an Area Under the Curve of 0.836. Findings suggest feasibility for a 3-item assessment protocol, delivered once per week, following traumatic exposure to assess and potentially facilitate follow-up care for those at risk.

Utility of Wrist-Wearable Data for Assessing Pain, Sleep, and Anxiety Outcomes After Traumatic Stress Exposure.

Importance: Adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae after traumatic stress exposure are common and have higher incidence among socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Pain, depression, avoidance of trauma reminders, reexperiencing trauma, anxiety, hyperarousal, sleep disruption, and nightmares have been reported. Wrist-wearable devices with accelerometers capable of assessing 24-hour rest-activity characteristics are prevalent and may have utility in measuring these outcomes. Objective: To evaluate whether wrist-wearable devices can provide useful biomarkers for recovery after traumatic stress exposure. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data were analyzed from a diverse cohort of individuals seen in the emergency department after experiencing a traumatic stress exposure, as part of the Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study. Participants recruited from 27 emergency departments wore wrist-wearable devices for 8 weeks, beginning in the emergency department, and completed serial assessments of neuropsychiatric symptoms. A total of 19 019 patients were screened. Of these, 3040 patients met study criteria, provided informed consent, and completed baseline assessments. A total of 2021 provided data from wrist-wearable devices, completed the 8-week assessment, and were included in this analysis. The data were randomly divided into 2 equal parts (n = 1010) for biomarker identification and validation. Data were collected from September 2017 to January 2020, and data were analyzed from May 2020 to November 2022. Exposures: Participants were recruited for the study after experiencing a traumatic stress exposure (most commonly motor vehicle collision). Main Outcomes and Measures: Rest-activity characteristics were derived and validated from wrist-wearable devices associated with specific self-reported symptom domains at a point in time and changes in symptom severity over time. Results: Of 2021 included patients, 1257 (62.2%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 35.8 (13.0) years. Eight wrist-wearable device biomarkers for symptoms of adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequelae exceeded significance thresholds in the derivation cohort. One of these, reduced 24-hour activity variance, was associated with greater pain severity (r = -0.14; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.07). Changes in 6 rest-activity measures were associated with changes in pain over time, and changes in the number of transitions between sleep and wake over time were associated with changes in pain, sleep, and anxiety. Simple cutoffs for these biomarkers identified individuals with good recovery for pain (positive predictive value [PPV], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.82-0.88), sleep (PPV, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.59-0.67, and anxiety (PPV, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.72-0.80) with high predictive value. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that wrist-wearable device biomarkers may have utility as screening tools for pain, sleep, and anxiety symptom outcomes after trauma exposure in high-risk populations.

An Assessment of Emergency Department Post-Cardiac Arrest Care Variation in Michigan.

Implementation of postarrest care by individual physicians and systems has been slow. Deadoption, or discontinuation of therapeutic hypothermia (TH) treatment targets, after recent prospective study results has not been well reported. This study assesses practices in the early stages of postarrest care across emergency departments (EDs) in Michigan. A 27-question Internet-based survey was distributed to EDs in Michigan in September 2013. To assess changes in practice after publication of Nielsen et al., we sent follow-up questions to all original respondents a year later. Observational data and descriptive statistics are reported. From the 142 EDs identified, we excluded critical access hospitals (N = 35), free standing EDs (N = 7), EDs that transfer critical patients to tertiary centers (N = 21), and exclusive children's hospitals (N = 3). Of the remaining 76 hospitals, we received 64 (84.2%) responses. We identified 15 respondents with a protocol to specifically initiate ED TH and transfer patients to a higher level of care. The 49 remaining were mostly teaching institutions (N = 34, 69%) and gave the ED physician the ability to initiate TH (N = 40, 82%). On follow-up 12 months later, we received 33/40 (83%) responses, of which only 5 indicated formal or informal change in TH practice or target temperature. There is substantial variation in the practice of ED postarrest care and initiation of TH across the state of Michigan, but few ED TH protocols were changed in a year's time. The consequences of postarrest treatment variability at the state and ED levels are likely under-recognized as an influence on outcome variation between regions.

Triple Rule Out versus CT Angiogram Plus Stress Test for Evaluation of Chest Pain in the Emergency Department.

INTRODUCTION: Undifferentiated chest pain in the emergency department (ED) is a diagnostic challenge. One approach includes a dedicated chest computed tomography (CT) for pulmonary embolism or dissection followed by a cardiac stress test (TRAD). An alternative strategy is a coronary CT angiogram with concurrent chest CT (Triple Rule Out, TRO). The objective of this study was to describe the ED patient course and short-term safety for these evaluation methods. METHODS: This was a retrospective observational study of adult patients presenting to a large, community ED for acute chest pain who had non-diagnostic electrocardiograms (ECGs) and normal biomarkers. We collected demographics, ED length of stay, hospital costs, and estimated radiation exposures. We evaluated 30-day return visits for major adverse cardiac events. RESULTS: A total of 829 patients underwent TRAD, and 642 patients had TRO. Patients undergoing TRO tended to be younger (mean 52.3 vs 56.5 years) and were more likely to be male (42.4% vs. 30.4%). TRO patients tended to have a shorter ED length of stay (mean 14.45 vs. 21.86 hours), to incur less cost (median $449.83 vs. $1147.70), and to be exposed to less radiation (median 7.18 vs. 16.6 mSv). No patient in either group had a related 30-day revisit. CONCLUSION: Use of TRO is feasible for assessment of chest pain in the ED. Both TRAD and TRO safely evaluated patients. Prospective studies investigating this diagnostic strategy are needed to further assess this approach to ED chest pain evaluation.

EMS Provider assessment of vehicle damage compared with assessment by a professional crash reconstructionist.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the accuracy of emergency medical services (EMS) provider assessments of motor vehicle damage when compared with measurements made by a professional crash reconstructionist. METHODS: EMS providers caring for adult patients injured during a motor vehicle crash and transported to the regional trauma center in a midsized community were interviewed upon emergency department arrival. The interview collected provider estimates of crash mechanism of injury. For crashes that met a preset severity threshold, the vehicle's owner was asked to consent to having a crash reconstructionist assess the vehicle. The assessment included measuring intrusion and external automobile deformity. Vehicle damage was used to calculate change in velocity. Paired t-test, correlation, and kappa were used to compare EMS estimates and investigator-derived values. RESULTS: Ninety-one vehicles were enrolled; of these, 58 were inspected and 33 were excluded because the vehicle was not accessible. Six vehicles had multiple patients. Therefore, a total of 68 EMS estimates were compared with the inspection findings. Patients were 46% male, 28% were admitted to hospital, and 1% died. The mean EMS-estimated deformity was 18 inches and the mean measured deformity was 14 inches. The mean EMS-estimated intrusion was 5 inches and the mean measured intrusion was 4 inches. The EMS providers and the reconstructionist had 68% agreement for determination of external automobile deformity (kappa 0.26) and 88% agreement for determination of intrusion (kappa 0.27) when the 1999 American College of Surgeons Field Triage Decision Scheme criteria were applied. The mean (± standard deviation) EMS-estimated speed prior to the crash was 48 ± 13 mph and the mean reconstructionist-estimated change in velocity was 18 ± 12 mph (correlation -0.45). The EMS providers determined that 19 vehicles had rolled over, whereas the investigator identified 18 (kappa 0.96). In 55 cases, EMS and the investigator agreed on seat belt use; for the remaining 13 cases, there was disagreement (five) or the investigator was unable to make a determination (eight) (kappa 0.40). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that EMS providers are good at estimating rollover. Vehicle intrusion, deformity, and seat belt use appear to be more difficult for EMS to estimate, with only fair agreement with the crash reconstructionist. As expected, the EMS provider -estimated speed prior to the crash does not appear to be a reasonable proxy for change in velocity.

Estimated cost effectiveness of a police automated external defibrillator program in a suburban community: 7 years experience.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost effectiveness of a 7-year police automatic external defibrillator (AED) program in four suburban communities. METHOD: 10-year retrospective study (7/89-7/99) of patients of four suburban communities during two study periods: (1) police first response and advanced life support (ALS) care (No-AED) and; (2) AED equipped police first response (P-AED) with subsequent ALS care. Using the perspective of the communities, we obtained costs of AED program from police agencies. We estimated cost/life saved and cost/year lives saved using decreased time to VF shock by EMS. We performed a sensitivity analysis for estimates of potential benefit using estimated improved survival as a result of decreased EMS response interval and obtained survival data. We used literature-based estimates of life expectancy after cardiac arrest survival to estimate cost/year life saved. We used student's t-test and chi(2) to estimate differences between groups. RESULTS: During the 10-year study period 208 patients met study criteria; (81 No-AED, 128 P-AED). The two groups were not different by patient age, ALS response interval, percent in VF, percent witnessed (WIT), or arrest location. Interval to first defibrillator equipped EMS vehicle arrival was less in the P-AED group (2.0 vs. 5.4 min, P<0.001) as was the interval from the emergency (911) call to first VF shock (6.6 vs. 8.4 min, P=0.02). Survival to DC was not statistically different with P-AED (11.9 vs. 9.9%, P=0.66) but this study was not powered to detect a difference. Estimated cost per life saved with P-AED varied from $23542 to $70342 and cost per year life saved ranged from $1582 to $16060. CONCLUSION: Police AED appears to be a cost-effective intervention in these suburban communities which have relatively rapid EMS response intervals.