RESUMO
As Norway considers revising triage approaches following their first adolescent cohort with human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination entering the cervical cancer screening program, we analyzed the health impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative primary HPV triage approaches for women initiating cervical cancer screening in 2023. We used a multimodeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to evaluate the health benefits, harms and cost-effectiveness of alternative extended genotyping and age-based triage strategies under five-yearly primary HPV testing (including the status-quo screening strategy in Norway) for women born in 1998 (ie, age 25 in 2023). We examined 35 strategies that varied alternative groupings of high-risk HPV genotypes ("high-risk" genotypes; "medium-risk" genotypes or "intermediate-risk" genotypes), number and types of HPV included in each group, management of HPV-positive women to direct colposcopy or active surveillance, wait time for re-testing and age at which the HPV triage algorithm switched from less to more intensive strategies. Given the range of benchmarks for severity-specific cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway, we found that the preferred strategy for vaccinated women aged 25 years in 2023 involved an age-based switch from a less to more intensive follow-up algorithm at age 30 or 35 years with HPV-16/18 genotypes in the "high-risk" group. The two potentially cost-effective strategies could reduce the number of colposcopies compared to current guidelines and simultaneously improve health benefits. Using age to guide primary HPV triage, paired with selective HPV genotype and follow-up time for re-testing, could improve both the cervical cancer program effectiveness and efficiency.
Assuntos
Infecções por Papillomavirus , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero , Adolescente , Gravidez , Feminino , Humanos , Adulto , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controle , Papillomavirus Humano , Análise Custo-Benefício , Papillomavirus Humano 16/genética , Infecções por Papillomavirus/diagnóstico , Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Papillomavirus/epidemiologia , Triagem , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Papillomavirus Humano 18/genética , Colposcopia , NoruegaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Self-identified Black women in the United States have higher cervical cancer incidence and mortality than the general population, but these differences have not been clearly attributed across described cancer care inequities. METHODS: A previously established microsimulation model of cervical cancer was adapted to reflect demographic, screening, and survival data for Black US women and compared with a model reflecting data for all US women. Each model input with stratified data (all-cause mortality, hysterectomy rates, screening frequency, screening modality, follow-up, and cancer survival) was sequentially replaced with Black-race specific data to arrive at a fully specified model reflecting Black women. At each step, we estimated the relative contribution of inputs to observed disparities. RESULTS: Estimated (hysterectomy-adjusted) cervical cancer incidence was 8.6 per 100â000 in the all-race model vs 10.8 per 100â000 in the Black-race model (relative risk [RR] = 1.24, range = 1.23-1.27). Estimated all-race cervical cancer mortality was 2.9 per 100â000 vs 5.5 per 100â000 in the Black-race model (RR = 1.92, range = 1.85-2.00). We found the largest contributors of incidence disparities were follow-up from positive screening results (47.3% of the total disparity) and screening frequency (32.7%). For mortality disparities, the largest contributor was cancer survival differences (70.1%) followed by screening follow-up (12.7%). CONCLUSION: To reduce disparities in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, it is important to understand and address differences in care access and quality across the continuum of care. Focusing on the practices and policies that drive differences in treatment and follow-up from cervical abnormalities may have the highest impact.
Assuntos
Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Disparidades em Assistência à Saúde , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero , Feminino , Humanos , Carcinogênese , Incidência , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/epidemiologia , Brancos , Negro ou Afro-AmericanoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme. METHODS: Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021-2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme. RESULTS: Over the years 2021-2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1-130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1-161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6-169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14-3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75-85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection. CONCLUSIONS: Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.
Assuntos
Infecções por Papillomavirus , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero , Adolescente , Feminino , Lactente , Humanos , Criança , Análise Custo-Benefício , Papillomavirus Humano , Infecções por Papillomavirus/epidemiologia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/epidemiologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controle , VacinaçãoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses can inform decisions about screening guidelines by quantifying consequences of alternative algorithms. Although actual screening adherence is imperfect, incorporating nonadherence into analyses that aim to determine optimal screening may affect the policy recommendations. We evaluated the impact of nonadherence assumptions on the optimal cervical cancer screening in Norway. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of cervical carcinogenesis to project the long-term health and economic outcomes under alternative screening algorithms and adherence patterns. We compared 18 algorithms involving primary human papillomavirus testing (5-yearly) that varied follow-up management of different human papillomavirus results. We considered 12 adherence scenarios: perfect adherence, 8 high- and low-coverage "random-complier" scenarios, and 3 "systematic-complier" scenarios that reflect conditional screening behavior over a lifetime. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and considered a strategy with the highest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio < 55 000 US dollars/quality-adjusted life-year as "optimal." RESULTS: Under perfect adherence, the least intensive screening strategy was optimal; in contrast, assuming any nonadherence resulted in a more intensive optimal strategy. Accounting for lower adherence resulted in both lower costs and health benefits, which allowed for a more intensive strategy to be considered optimal, but more harms for women who screen according to guidelines (ie, up to 41% more colposcopies when comparing the optimal strategy in the lowest-adherence scenario with the optimal strategy under perfect adherence). CONCLUSIONS: Assuming nonadherence in analyses designed to inform national guidelines may lead to a relatively more intensive recommendation. Designing guidelines for those who do not adhere to them may lead to over-screening of those who do.
Assuntos
Neoplasias do Colo do Útero , Feminino , Humanos , Colposcopia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer , Programas de Rastreamento , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnósticoRESUMO
Poor diet increases cardiometabolic disease risk, yet the impact of food service guidelines on employee health and its cost effectiveness is poorly understood. Federal food service guidelines (FFSG) aim to provide United States (U.S.) government employees with healthier food options. Using microsimulation modeling, we estimated changes in the incidence of cardiometabolic disease, related mortality, and the cost effectiveness of implementing FFSG in nationally representative model populations of government and private company employees across 5 years and lifetime. We based estimates on changes in workplace intake of six FFSG dietary targets and showed lifetime reductions of heart attacks (- 107/million), strokes (- 30/million), diabetes (- 134/million), ischemic heart disease deaths (- 56/million), and stroke deaths (- 8/million). FFSG is cost saving overall, with total savings in discounted healthcare costs from $4,611,026 (5 years) to $539,809,707 (lifetime) $U.S. This study demonstrates that FFSG improves health outcomes and is cost saving.
Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Serviços de Alimentação , Redução de Custos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Humanos , Avaliação de Resultados em Cuidados de Saúde , Estados Unidos , Local de TrabalhoRESUMO
Several countries have implemented primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for cervical cancer screening. HPV testing enables home-based, self-collected sampling (self-sampling), which provides similar diagnostic accuracy as clinician-collected samples. We evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of switching an entire organized screening program to primary HPV self-sampling among cohorts of HPV vaccinated and unvaccinated Norwegian women. We conducted a model-based analysis to project long-term health and economic outcomes for birth cohorts with different HPV vaccine exposure, that is, preadolescent vaccination (2000- and 2008-cohorts), multiage cohort vaccination (1991-cohort) or no vaccination (1985-cohort). We compared the cost-effectiveness of switching current guidelines with clinician-collected HPV testing to HPV self-sampling for these cohorts and considered an additional 44 strategies involving either HPV self-sampling or clinician-collected HPV testing at different screening frequencies for the 2000- and 2008-cohorts. Given Norwegian benchmarks for cost-effectiveness, we considered a strategy with an additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year below $55 000 as cost-effective. HPV self-sampling strategies considerably reduced screening costs (ie, by 24%-40% across cohorts and alternative strategies) and were more cost-effective than clinician-collected HPV testing. For cohorts offered preadolescent vaccination, cost-effective strategies involved HPV self-sampling three times (2000-cohort) and twice (2008-cohort) per lifetime. In conclusion, we found that switching from clinician-collected to self-collected HPV testing in cervical screening may be cost-effective among both highly vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts of Norwegian women.
Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Papillomaviridae/isolamento & purificação , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/imunologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Vacinação , Adulto , Idoso , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Qualidade de Vida , Manejo de Espécimes , IncertezaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The guidelines for managing abnormal cervical cancer screening tests changed from a results-based approach in 2012 to a risk-based approach in 2019. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the 2019 management guidelines and the changes in resource utilization moving from 2012 to 2019 guidelines. STUDY DESIGN: We utilized a previously published model of cervical cancer natural history and screening to estimate and compare the lifetime costs and the number of screens, colposcopies, precancer treatments, cancer cases, and cancer deaths associated with the 2012 vs 2019 management guidelines. We assessed these guidelines under the scenarios of observed screening practice and perfect screening adherence to 3-year cytology starting at age 21, with a switch to either 3-year or 5-year cytology plus human papillomavirus cotesting at age 30. In addition, we estimated the lifetime costs and life years to determine the cost-effectiveness of shifting to the 2019 management guidelines. RESULTS: Under the assumptions of both observed screening practice and perfect screening adherence with a strategy of 3-year cytology at ages 21 to 29 and switching to 3-year cotesting at age 30, the management of the screening tests according to the 2019 guidelines was less costly and more effective than the 2012 guidelines. For 3-year cytology screening at ages 21 to 29 and switching to 5-year cotesting at age 30, the 2019 guidelines were more cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000 per life year gained. Across all scenarios, the 2019 management guidelines were associated with fewer colposcopies and cancer deaths. CONCLUSION: Our model-based analysis suggests that the 2019 guidelines are more effective overall and also more cost-effective than the 2012 guidelines, supporting the principle of "equal management of equal risks."
Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/diagnóstico , Displasia do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Adulto , Idoso , Colo do Útero/patologia , Colo do Útero/virologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções por Papillomavirus/economia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/patologia , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/economia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/patologia , Esfregaço Vaginal/economia , Adulto Jovem , Displasia do Colo do Útero/economia , Displasia do Colo do Útero/patologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative proposed government-supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential effects and cost-effectiveness are unclear. METHODS: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative policy. The model was run at the individual level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health statuses on the basis of risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011 through 2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from health care and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a 1-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance and probabilistic sensitivity analyses through a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal health care cost savings, stratified by age, race, income, and education. RESULTS: Achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150 000/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (<50 000/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a health care perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black or Hispanic individuals, lower income, and less educated Americans. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing and achieving the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains, and cost savings.
Assuntos
Nível de Saúde , Cloreto de Sódio na Dieta/economia , Açúcares/química , Redução de Custos , Humanos , Fatores de Risco , Açúcares/economia , Estados UnidosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: African-American women in the United States have an elevated risk of cervical cancer incidence and mortality. In the Mississippi Delta, cervical cancer disparities are particularly stark. METHODS: We conducted a micro-costing study alongside a group randomized trial that evaluated the efficacy of a patient-centered approach ("Choice" between self-collection at home for HPV testing or current standard of care within the public health system in Mississippi) versus the current standard of care ["Standard-of-care screening," involving cytology (i.e., Pap) and HPV co-testing at the Health Department clinics]. The interventions in both study arms were delivered by community health workers (CHW). Using cost, screening uptake, and colposcopy adherence data from the trial, we informed a mathematical model of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the "Choice" and "Standard-of-care screening" interventions among un/underscreened African-American women in the Mississippi Delta. RESULTS: When each intervention was simulated every 5 years from ages 25 to 65 years, the "Standard-of-care screening" strategy reduced cancer risk by 6.4% and was not an efficient strategy; "Choice" was more effective and efficient, reducing lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 14.8% and costing $62,720 per year of life saved (YLS). Screening uptake and colposcopy adherence were key drivers of intervention cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Offering "Choice" to un/underscreened African-American women in the Mississippi Delta led to greater uptake than CHW-facilitated screening at the Health Department, and may be cost-effective. IMPACT: We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of an HPV self-collection intervention to reduce disparities.
Assuntos
Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/diagnóstico , Displasia do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Adulto , Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Alphapapillomavirus/isolamento & purificação , Colposcopia/estatística & dados numéricos , Simulação por Computador , Análise Custo-Benefício/estatística & dados numéricos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/métodos , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/estatística & dados numéricos , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mississippi , Modelos Econômicos , Método de Monte Carlo , Infecções por Papillomavirus/economia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/patologia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/virologia , Cooperação do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Manejo de Espécimes/economia , Manejo de Espécimes/métodos , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/economia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/patologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/virologia , Esfregaço Vaginal/economia , Displasia do Colo do Útero/economia , Displasia do Colo do Útero/patologia , Displasia do Colo do Útero/virologiaRESUMO
Following the global call for action by the World Health Organization to eliminate cervical cancer (CC), we evaluated how each CC policy decision in Norway influenced the timing of CC elimination, and whether introducing nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine would accelerate elimination timing and be cost-effective. We used a multi-modeling approach that captured HPV transmission and cervical carcinogenesis to estimate the CC incidence associated with six past and future CC prevention policy decisions compared with a pre-vaccination scenario involving 3-yearly cytology-based screening. Scenarios examined the introduction of routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls with quadrivalent vaccine in 2009, a temporary catch-up program for females aged up to 26 years in 2016-2018 with bivalent vaccine, the universal switch to bivalent vaccine in 2017, expansion to include 12-year-old boys in 2018, the switch from cytology- to HPV-based screening for women aged 34-69 in 2020, and the potential switch to nonavalent vaccine in 2021. Introducing routine female vaccination in 2009 enabled elimination to be achieved by 2056 and prevented 17,300 cases. Cumulatively, subsequent policy decisions accelerated elimination to 2039. According to our modeling assumptions, switching to the nonavalent vaccine would not be considered 'good value for money' at relevant cost-effectiveness thresholds in Norway unless the incremental cost was $19 per dose or less (range: $17-24) compared to the bivalent vaccine. CC control policies implemented over the last decade in Norway may have accelerated the timeframe to elimination by more than 17 years and prevented over 23,800 cases by 2110.
Assuntos
Infecções por Papillomavirus , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero , Criança , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Noruega , Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: A nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been licensed for use in women and men up to age 45 years in the United States. The cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination for women and men aged 30 to 45 years in the context of cervical cancer screening practice was evaluated to inform national guidelines. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We utilized 2 independent HPV microsimulation models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of extending the upper age limit of HPV vaccination in women (from age 26 years) and men (from age 21 years) up to age 30, 35, 40, or 45 years. The models were empirically calibrated to reflect the burden of HPV and related cancers in the US population and used standardized inputs regarding historical and future vaccination uptake, vaccine efficacy, cervical cancer screening, and costs. Disease outcomes included cervical, anal, oropharyngeal, vulvar, vaginal, and penile cancers, as well as genital warts. Both models projected higher costs and greater health benefits as the upper age limit of HPV vaccination increased. Strategies of vaccinating females and males up to ages 30, 35, and 40 years were found to be less cost-effective than vaccinating up to age 45 years, which had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) greater than a commonly accepted upper threshold of $200,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. When including all HPV-related outcomes, the ICER for vaccinating up to age 45 years ranged from $315,700 to $440,600 per QALY gained. Assumptions regarding cervical screening compliance, vaccine costs, and the natural history of noncervical HPV-related cancers had major impacts on the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination strategies. Key limitations of the study were related to uncertainties in the data used to inform the models, including the timing of vaccine impact on noncervical cancers and vaccine efficacy at older ages. CONCLUSIONS: Our results from 2 independent models suggest that HPV vaccination for adult women and men aged 30 to 45 years is unlikely to represent good value for money in the US.
Assuntos
Análise Custo-Benefício , Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/uso terapêutico , Vacinação/economia , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/economia , Estados UnidosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Assuntos
Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/mortalidade , Doenças Transmissíveis/virologia , Modelos Teóricos , Mortalidade/tendências , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Vacinação , Pré-Escolar , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Transmissíveis/economia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Países em Desenvolvimento , Feminino , Saúde Global , Humanos , Programas de Imunização , Masculino , Vacinação/economia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines may provide some level of cross-protection against high-risk HPV genotypes not directly targeted by the vaccines. We evaluated the long-term health and economic impacts of routine HPV vaccination using either the nonavalent HPV vaccine or the bivalent HPV vaccine in the context of 48 Gavi-eligible countries. We used a multi-modeling approach to compare the bivalent with or without cross-protection and the nonavalent HPV vaccine. The optimal, that is, most cost-effective, vaccine was the vaccine with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) for each country. By 2100 and assuming 70% HPV vaccination coverage, a bivalent vaccine without cross-protection, a bivalent vaccine with favorable cross-protection and the nonavalent vaccine were projected to avert 14.9, 17.2 and 18.5 million cumulative cases of cervical cancer across all 48 Gavi-eligible countries, respectively. The relative value of the bivalent vaccine compared to the nonavalent vaccine increased assuming a bivalent vaccine conferred high cross-protection. For example, assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of per-capita GDP, the nonavalent vaccine was optimal in 83% (n = 40) of countries if the bivalent vaccine did not confer cross-protection; however, the proportion of countries decreased to 63% (n = 30) if the bivalent vaccine conferred high cross-protection. For lower cost-effectiveness thresholds, the bivalent vaccine was optimal in a greater proportion of countries, under both cross-protection assumptions. Although the nonavalent vaccine is projected to avert more cases of cervical cancer, the bivalent vaccine with favorable cross-protection can prevent a considerable number of cases and would be considered a high-value vaccine for many Gavi-eligible countries.
Assuntos
Papillomavirus Humano 16/imunologia , Papillomavirus Humano 18/imunologia , Infecções por Papillomavirus/imunologia , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/imunologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/imunologia , Análise Custo-Benefício , Países Desenvolvidos , Países em Desenvolvimento , Feminino , Genótipo , Geografia , Saúde Global/economia , Papillomavirus Humano 16/genética , Papillomavirus Humano 16/fisiologia , Papillomavirus Humano 18/genética , Papillomavirus Humano 18/fisiologia , Humanos , Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Infecções por Papillomavirus/virologia , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/administração & dosagem , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/economia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/virologia , Vacinação/economia , Vacinação/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Sweden revised their cervical cancer screening program in 2017 to include cytology-based screening for women aged 23-29 years and primary human papillomavirus (HPV) testing for women aged 30-64 years; however, alternative strategies may be preferred. To inform cervical cancer prevention policies for unvaccinated women, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies, including the current Swedish guidelines. METHODS: We adapted a mathematical simulation model of HPV and cervical cancer to the Swedish context using primary epidemiologic data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies that varied by the age to start screening, the age to switch from cytology to HPV testing, HPV strategies not preceded by cytology, screening frequency, and management of HPV-positive/cytology-negative women. RESULTS: We found that the current Swedish guidelines were more costly and less effective than alternative primary HPV-based strategies. All cost-efficient strategies involved primary HPV testing not preceded by cytology for younger women. Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of 85,619 per quality-adjusted life year gained, the optimal strategy involved 5-yearly primary HPV-based screening for women aged 23-50 years and 10-yearly HPV-based screening for women older than age 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: Primary screening based on HPV alone may be considered for unvaccinated women for those countries with similar HPV burdens.
Assuntos
Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Testes de DNA para Papilomavírus Humano/economia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/diagnóstico , Adulto , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/normas , Feminino , Testes de DNA para Papilomavírus Humano/normas , Humanos , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Suécia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controle , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/virologia , Vacinação/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Excess caloric intake is linked to weight gain, obesity, and related diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Obesity incidence is rising, with nearly 3 in 4 US adults being overweight or obese. In 2018, the US federal government finalized the implementation of mandatory labeling of calorie content on all menu items across major chain restaurants nationally as a strategy to support informed consumer choice, reduce caloric intake, and potentially encourage restaurant reformulations. Yet, the potential health and economic impacts of this policy remain unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) to estimate reductions in CVD events, diabetes mellitus cases, gains in quality-adjusted life years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of the menu calorie labeling intervention, based on consumer responses alone, and further accounting for potential industry reformulation. The model incorporated nationally representative demographic and dietary data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys 2009 to 2016; policy effects on consumer diets and body mass index-disease effects from published meta-analyses; and policy effects on industry reformulation, policy costs (policy administration, industry compliance, and reformulation), and health-related costs (formal and informal healthcare costs, productivity costs) from established sources or reasonable assumptions. We modeled change in calories to change in weight using an established dynamic weight-change model, assuming 50% of expected calorie reductions would translate to long-term reductions. Findings were evaluated over 5 years and a lifetime from healthcare and societal perspectives, with uncertainty incorporated in both 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Between 2018 and 2023, implementation of the restaurant menu calorie labeling law was estimated, based on consumer response alone, to prevent 14 698 new CVD cases (including 1575 CVD deaths) and 21 522 new type 2 diabetes mellitus cases, gaining 8749 quality-adjusted life years. Over a lifetime, corresponding values were 135 781 new CVD cases (including 27 646 CVD deaths), 99 736 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases, and 367 450 quality-adjusted life years. Assuming modest restaurant item reformulation, both health and economic benefits were estimated to be about 2-fold larger than based on consumer response alone. The consumer response alone was estimated to be cost-saving by 2023, with net lifetime savings of $10.42B from a healthcare perspective and $12.71B from a societal perspective. Findings were robust in a range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our national model suggests that the full implementation of the US calorie menu labeling law will generate significant health gains and healthcare and societal cost-savings. Industry responses to modestly reformulate menu items would provide even larger additional benefits.
Assuntos
Restrição Calórica , Dieta Saudável , Ingestão de Energia , Legislação sobre Alimentos , Planejamento de Cardápio , Obesidade/prevenção & controle , Restaurantes/legislação & jurisprudência , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Restrição Calórica/economia , Fatores de Risco Cardiometabólico , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Simulação por Computador , Redução de Custos , Análise Custo-Benefício , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/economia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/prevenção & controle , Dieta Saudável/economia , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Nível de Saúde , Humanos , Legislação sobre Alimentos/economia , Masculino , Planejamento de Cardápio/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Valor Nutritivo , Obesidade/economia , Obesidade/epidemiologia , Obesidade/fisiopatologia , Formulação de Políticas , Qualidade de Vida , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Recomendações Nutricionais/legislação & jurisprudência , Restaurantes/economia , Medição de Risco , Comportamento de Redução do Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are a rapidly growing policy tool and can be based on absolute volume, sugar content tiers, or absolute sugar content. Yet, their comparative health and economic impacts have not been quantified, in particular, tiered or sugar content taxes that provide industry incentives for sugar reduction. METHODS: We estimated incremental changes in diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, quality-adjusted life-years, costs, and cost-effectiveness of 3 sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs in the United States, on the basis of (1) volume ($0.01/oz), (2) tiers (<5 g of added sugar/8 oz: no tax; 5-20 g/8 oz: $0.01/oz; and >20 g/8 oz: $0.02/oz), and (3) absolute sugar content ($0.01 per teaspoon added sugar), each compared with a base case of modest ongoing voluntary industry reformulation. A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT (Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model for Risk, Events, Detection, Interventions, Costs, and Trends), incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, policy effects and sugar-sweetened beverage-related diseases from meta-analyses, and industry reformulation and health-related costs from established sources. RESULTS: Over a lifetime, the volume, tiered, and absolute sugar content taxes would generate $80.4 billion, $142 billion, and $41.7 billion in tax revenue, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, the volume tax would prevent 850 000 cardiovascular disease (95% CI, 836 000-864 000) and 269 000 diabetes mellitus (265 000-274 000) cases, gain 2.44 million quality-adjusted life-years (2.40-2.48), and save $53.2 billion net costs (52.3-54.1). Health gains and savings were approximately doubled for the tiered and absolute sugar content taxes. Results were robust for societal and government perspectives, at 10 years follow-up, and with lower (50%) tax pass-through. Health gains were largest in young adults, blacks and Hispanics, and lower-income Americans. CONCLUSIONS: All sugar-sweetened beverage tax designs would generate substantial health gains and savings. Tiered and absolute sugar content taxes should be considered and evaluated for maximal potential gains.
Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Bebidas Adoçadas com Açúcar/análise , Açúcares/química , Adulto , Idoso , Doenças Cardiovasculares/economia , Simulação por Computador , Análise Custo-Benefício , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Avaliação do Impacto na Saúde , Humanos , Imposto de Renda , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Política Pública , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Estados Unidos/epidemiologiaRESUMO
Cervical cancer screening with human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing has been incorporated into El Salvador's national guidelines. The feasibility of home-based HPV self-collection among women who do not attend screening at the clinic (i.e., non-attenders) has been demonstrated, but cost-effectiveness has not been evaluated. Using cost and compliance data from El Salvador, we informed a mathematical microsimulation model of HPV infection and cervical carcinogenesis to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis from the societal perspective. We estimated the reduction in cervical cancer risk, lifetime cost per woman (2017 US$), life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, 2017 US$ per year of life saved [YLS]) of a program with home-based self-collection of HPV (facilitated by health promoters) for the 18% of women reluctant to screen at the clinic. The model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from El Salvador. We evaluated health and economic outcomes of the self-collection intervention for women aged 30 to 59â¯years, alone and in concert with clinic-based HPV provider-collection. Home-based self-collection of HPV was projected to reduce population cervical cancer risk by 14% and cost $1210 per YLS compared to no screening. An integrated program reaching 99% coverage with both provider- and home-based self-collection of HPV reduced cancer risk by 74% (compared to no screening), and cost $1210 per YLS compared to provider-collection alone. Self-collection facilitated by health promoters is a cost-effective strategy for increasing screening uptake in El Salvador.
Assuntos
Análise Custo-Benefício , Detecção Precoce de Câncer/economia , Testes de DNA para Papilomavírus Humano , Modelos Teóricos , Infecções por Papillomavirus/diagnóstico , Adulto , Colposcopia/economia , El Salvador , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Papillomaviridae/isolamento & purificação , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/prevenção & controleRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Data to inform evidence-based policy of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine delivery strategies in low- and middle-income countries are limited. We examined the cost-effectiveness of campaign compared with routine delivery strategies of adolescent female HPV vaccination in Uganda. METHODS: We used a multiple modeling approach that captured HPV transmission, cervical carcinogenesis, and population demographics to project health and economic outcomes associated with HPV vaccination. Costs included vaccination and operational costs and cervical cancer costs over the lifetimes of the current female population in Uganda. Health outcomes included number of cervical cancer cases and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (i.e., cost per DALY averted) were calculated and compared against gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. RESULTS: Compared with routine HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls at 70% coverage, campaign vaccination yielded greater health benefits if campaigns occurred frequently and targeted a wide age range. Campaign delivery strategies were both less costly and more effective than routine HPV vaccination. Campaign vaccination of 9- to 30-year-old girls/women at a 3-year frequency (40% coverage) was considered cost-effective compared with the GDP per capita threshold for Uganda ($674 in U.S. 2015 dollars). CONCLUSIONS: We projected that campaign HPV vaccination would provide substantial population health benefits compared with routine vaccination. Expanding the target age range of campaign vaccination up to age 30 years may be an efficient strategy, depending on the achievable coverage level and campaign frequency. IMPACT: In settings where routine health systems infrastructure may be limited, reaching adolescent populations with a campaign delivery strategy may be an efficient use of resources.