Combined polygenic scores for ischemic stroke risk factors aid risk assessment of ischemic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Current risk assessment for ischemic stroke (IS) is limited to clinical variables. We hypothesize that polygenic scores (PGS) of IS (PGSIS) and IS-associated diseases such as atrial fibrillation (AF), venous thromboembolism (VTE), coronary artery disease (CAD), hypertension (HTN), and Type 2 diabetes (T2D) may improve the performance of IS risk assessment. METHODS: Incident IS was followed for 479,476 participants in the UK Biobank who did not have an IS diagnosis prior to the recruitment. Lifestyle variables (obesity, smoking and alcohol) at the time of study recruitment, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, PGSIS, and five PGSs for IS-associated diseases were tested using the Cox proportional-hazards model. Predictive performance was assessed using the C-statistic and net reclassification index (NRI). RESULTS: During a median average 12.5-year follow-up, 8374 subjects were diagnosed with IS. Known clinical variables (age, gender, clinical diagnoses of IS-associated diseases, obesity, and smoking) and PGSIS were all independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). In addition, PGSIS and each PGS for IS-associated diseases was also independently associated with IS (P < 0.001). Compared to the clinical model, a joint clinical/PGS model improved the C-statistic for predicting IS from 0.71 to 0.73 (P < 0.001) and significantly reclassified IS risk (NRI = 0.017, P < 0.001), and 6.48% of subjects were upgraded from low to high risk. CONCLUSIONS: Adding PGSs of IS and IS-associated diseases to known clinical risk factors statistically improved risk assessment for IS, demonstrating the supplementary value of inherited susceptibility measurement . However, its clinical utility is likely limited due to modest improvements in predictive values.

Risk assessment of venous thromboembolism in inflammatory bowel disease by inherited risk in a population-based incident cohort.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), including Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC), is a chronic inflammatory disease of the digestive tract with increasing prevalence globally. Although venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major complication in IBD patients, it is often underappreciated with limited tools for risk stratification. AIM: To estimate the proportion of VTE among IBD patients and assess genetic risk factors (monogenic and polygenic) for VTE. METHODS: Incident VTE was followed for 8465 IBD patients in the UK Biobank (UKB). The associations of VTE with F5 factor V leiden (FVL) mutation, F2 G20210A prothrombin gene mutation (PGM), and polygenic score (PGS003332) were tested using Cox hazards regression analysis, adjusting for age at IBD diagnosis, gender, and genetic background (top 10 principal components). The performance of genetic risk factors for discriminating VTE diagnosis was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: The overall proportion of incident VTE was 4.70% in IBD patients and was similar for CD (4.46%), UC (4.49%), and unclassified (6.42%), and comparable to that of cancer patients (4.66%) who are well-known at increased risk for VTE. Mutation carriers of F5/F2 had a significantly increased risk for VTE compared to non-mutation carriers, hazard ratio (HR) was 1.94, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.42-2.65. In contrast, patients with the top PGS decile had a considerably higher risk for VTE compared to those with intermediate scores (middle 8 deciles), HR was 2.06 (95%CI: 1.57-2.71). The AUC for differentiating VTE diagnosis was 0.64 (95%CI: 0.61-0.67), 0.68 (95%CI: 0.66-0.71), and 0.69 (95%CI: 0.66-0.71), respectively, for F5/F2 mutation carriers, PGS, and combined. CONCLUSION: Similar to cancer patients, VTE complications are common in IBD patients. PGS provides more informative risk information than F5/F2 mutations (FVL and PGM) for personalized thromboprophylaxis.

Personalized Postacute Hospitalization Recovery: A Novel Intervention to Improve Patient Experience and Reduce Cost.

GOAL: Readmissions are a significant financial burden for payers. Cardiovascular-related discharges are particularly prone to readmission. Posthospital discharge support can impact patient recovery and probably reduce patient readmissions. This study aimed to address the underlying behavioral and psychosocial factors that can negatively affect patients after discharge. METHODS: The study population was adult patients admitted to the hospital with a cardiovascular diagnosis who had a plan to discharge home. Those who consented to participate were randomized to intervention or control groups on a 1:1 basis. The intervention group received behavioral and emotional support, whereas the control group received usual care. Interventions included motivational interviewing, patient activation, empathetic communication, addressing mental health and substance use, and mindfulness. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Observed total readmission costs were significantly lower in the intervention group than in the control group ($1.1 million vs. $2.0 million) as was the observed mean cost per readmitted patient ($44,052 vs. $91,278). The mean expected cost of readmission after adjustment for confounding variables was lower in the intervention group than in the control group ($8,094 vs. $9,882, p = .011). PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS: Readmissions are a costly spend category. In this study, posthospital discharge support addressing the psychosocial factors contributing to patients' readmissions resulted in a lower total cost of care for those with a cardiovascular diagnosis. We describe an intervention that is reproducible and can be scaled broadly through technology to reduce readmission costs.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of extended thromboprophylaxis with rivaroxaban versus no prophylaxis in high-risk patients after hospitalisation for COVID-19: an economic modelling study.

Background: In patients at high risk of thromboembolism who were discharged after hospitalisation due to COVID-19, thromboprophylaxis with rivaroxaban 10 mg/day for 35 days significantly improved clinical outcomes, reducing thrombotic events compared with no post-discharge anticoagulation. The present study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of this anticoagulation strategy. Methods: Using the database of the MICHELLE trial, we developed a decision tree to estimate the cost-effectiveness of thromboprophylaxis with rivaroxaban 10 mg/day for 35 days versus no thromboprophylaxis in high-risk post-discharge patients for COVID-19 through an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. Findings: 318 patients in 14 centres in Brazil were enrolled in the primary MICHELLE trial. The mean age was 57.1 years (SD 15.2), 127 (40%) were women, 191 (60%) were men, and the mean body-mass index was 29.7 kg/m2 (SD 5.6). Rivaroxaban 10 mg per day orally for 35 days after discharge decreased the risk of events defined by the primary efficacy outcome by 67% (relative risk 0.33, 95% CI 0.12-0.90; p = 0.03). The mean cost for thromboprophylaxis with rivaroxaban was $53.37/patient, and no prophylaxis was $34.22/patient, with an incremental cost difference of $19.15. The effectiveness means obtained in the intervention group was 0.1457, while in the control group was 0.1421, determining an incremental QALY difference of 0.0036. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $5385.52/QALY. Interpretation: Extended treatment with Rivaroxaban as thromboprophylaxis after hospital discharge for high-risk patients with COVID-19 is a cost-effective treatment option. Funding: Modest funding was provided by Science Valley Research Institute, São Paulo, Brazil.

Prognostic Value of Venous Thromboembolism Risk Assessment Models in Patients with Severe COVID-19.

Introduction Severe novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes dysregulation of the coagulation system with arterial and venous thromboembolism (VTE). We hypothesize that validated VTE risk scores would have prognostic ability in this population. Methods Retrospective observational cohort with severe COVID-19 performed in NorthShore University Health System. Patients were >18 years of age and met criteria for inpatient or intensive care unit (ICU) care. The International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) and Caprini scores were calculated and patients were stratified. Results This study includes 184 patients, mostly men (63.6%), Caucasian (54.3%), 63 years old (interquartile range [IQR]: 24-101), and 57.1% of them required ICU care. Twenty-seven (14.7%) thrombotic events occurred: 12 (6.5%) cases of disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), 9 (4.9%) of pulmonary embolism, 5 (2.7%) of deep vein thrombosis, and 1 (0.5%) stroke. Among them, 86 patients (46.7%) died, 95 (51.6%) were discharged, and 3 (1.6%) were still hospitalized. "Moderate risk for VTE" and "High risk for VTE" by IMPROVE score had significant mortality association: (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.93-11.03; p < 0.001) and (HR = 6.22; 95% CI: 3.04-12.71; p < 0.001), respectively, with 87% sensitivity and 63% specificity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.752, p < 0.001). "High Risk for VTE" by Caprini score had significant mortality association (HR = 17.6; 95% CI: 5.56-55.96; p < 0.001) with 96% sensitivity and 55% specificity (AUC = 0.843, p < 0.001). Both scores were associated with thrombotic events when classified as "High risk for VTE" by IMPROVE (HR = 6.50; 95% CI: 2.72-15.53; p < 0.001) and Caprini scores (HR = 11.507; 95% CI: 2.697-49.104; p = 0.001). Conclusion The IMPROVE and Caprini risk scores were independent predictors of mortality and thrombotic events in severe COVID-19. With larger validation, this can be useful prognostic information.

Predictors of Bleeding in the Perioperative Anticoagulant Use for Surgery Evaluation Study.

Background In the PAUSE (Perioperative Anticoagulant Use for Surgery Evaluation) Study, a simple, standardized, perioperative interruption strategy was provided for patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation taking direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Our objective was to define the factors associated with perioperative bleeding. Methods and Results We analyzed bleeding as the composite of major and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. Putative predictors of bleeding, and preoperative DOAC level were prospectively collected during recruitment. We used stratified logistic regression models for analysis. All statistical analyses were performed in R version 3.6.0. There were 3007 patients requiring perioperative DOAC interruption. More than one third of the included patients underwent a high bleeding risk procedure. The 30-day rates of major and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding were 3.02% in apixaban (n=1257), 2.84% in dabigatran (n=668), and 4.16% for rivaroxaban (n=1082). Multivariate analysis stratified by region found more bleeding for hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; 95% CI 1.07-2.99; P=0.027), and prior bleeding (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.08-2.71; P=0.021). Surgical bleed risk classification (high- versus low-risk) as a predictor of bleeding was only significant in the univariate analysis. The prediction model for major and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding had an area under the curve of 0.71, and the preoperative DOAC level did not improve the area under the curve of the model. Conclusions In patients treated with DOACs who required an elective surgery/procedure and were managed with standardized DOAC interruption and resumption, there we did not find reversible risk factors for bleeding, suggesting that adjustment of the PAUSE management protocol to mitigate against bleeding is not needed.

Rate and impact of venous thromboembolism in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: Analysis of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database 2003-2013.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) and coronary artery disease are major health issues that cause substantial morbidity and mortality. New data have emerged suggesting that these two conditions could have a close relationship. Thus, we sought to determine the trends in annual rate of VTE occurrence in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and measure its impact on in-hospital mortality, bleeding complications, and cost and length of hospitalization. We queried the 2003-2013 Nationwide Inpatient Sample databases to identify adults with primary diagnosis of STEMI. VTE events were then allocated. Inpatient outcomes of patients with VTE were compared to those without VTE. Out of 2,495,757 hospitalizations for STEMI, VTE was diagnosed in 25,149 (1%) hospitalizations. Patients who experienced VTE were older (mean age: 67.5 vs 64.8, p < 0.01) and had a higher proportion of black patients (10.1% vs 7.7%, p < 0.001) and females (40.1% vs 35%, p < 0.001) compared to patients without VTE. There was an increasing trend in the rate of VTE during the study period (2003: 0.8% vs 2013: 1.0%, p < 0.001). Patients with VTE had a prolonged hospitalization (median: 9 vs 3 days, p < 0.001), increased cost, higher risk of gastrointestinal bleeding (OR: 2.13, p < 0.001), intracranial hemorrhage (OR: 2.14, p < 0.001), blood transfusions (OR: 1.94, p < 0.001), and mortality (OR: 1.39, p < 0.001). The rate of VTE occurrence in patients with STEMI in our study was 10 per 1000 admissions. VTE was associated with more bleeding complications, longer hospital stays, higher costs, and mortality. These findings suggest that a more aggressive approach for VTE prophylaxis may be warranted in this population.

Risk assessment as a guide for the prevention of cancer-associated thromboembolism.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major source of morbidity and mortality among patients diagnosed with cancer. In addition to an increased risk of VTE, patients with cancer are at higher risk of bleeding while receiving therapeutic anticoagulation. Aggressive and targeted thromboprophylaxis is a crucial practice to avoid the dreaded complications of VTE. Risk assessment models (RAM) are tools developed to identify high-risk patients in whom thromboprophylaxis is beneficial. This review describes the most validated VTE RAMs in patients with cancer.

Validation of a Patient-Completed Caprini Risk Assessment Tool for Spanish, Arabic, and Polish Speakers.

Targeted prophylaxis for venous thromboembolism (VTE) using the Caprini risk score (CRS) is effective reducing postoperative VTE. Despite its availability as preventive strategy, risk scoring remains underutilized. Critics to the CRS contend the time it takes to complete, and its limitation to English language. Aim is to create and validate patient-completed CRS tools for Spanish, Arabic, and Polish speakers. We translated the first patient-completed CRS to Spanish, Arabic, and Polish. We conducted a pilot study followed by the validation study. Using PASS version 11, we determined that a sample size of 37 achieved a power of 80%, to detect a difference of 0.1 between the null hypothesis correlation of 0.5 and the alternative hypothesis correlation of 0.7 using a 2-sided hypothesis test, significance level of .05. We tabulated and categorized scores using SPSS version 23 to estimate κ, linear correlation, and Bland Altman test. κ value >0.8 was defined as "almost perfect agreement." From 129 recruited patients, 50 (39%) spoke Spanish, 40 (31%) spoke Arabic, and 39 (30%) spoke Polish; average age 51 (16.69) years, 58 (45%) were men, with less than college education (67%). Mean (standard deviation) CRS was 5 (3.90), the majority (63%) above moderate VTE risk. We report excellent agreement comparing physician and patient results (κ = 0.93) and high correlation 0.97 ( P < .01) for the overall score. Bland Altman did not show trend for extreme values. We created and validated the first Spanish, Arabic, and Polish versions of the patient-completed CRS, with excellent correlation and agreement when compared to CRS-trained physician-completed form. Based on these results, the physician needs to calculate the body mass index. Completing the form was not time-consuming.

Utilization of catheter-directed thrombolysis in pulmonary embolism and outcome difference between systemic thrombolysis and catheter-directed thrombolysis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to assess the utilization of catheter-directed thrombolysis (CDT) and its comparative effectiveness against systemic thrombolysis in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). BACKGROUND: Contemporary real world data regarding utilization and outcomes comparing systemic thrombolysis with CDT for PE is sparse. METHODS: We queried the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from 2010 to 2012 using the ICD-9-CM diagnosis code 415.11, 415.13, and 415.19 for acute PE. We used propensity score analysis to compare outcomes between systemic thrombolysis and CDT. Primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcome was combined in-hospital mortality and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). RESULTS: Out of 110,731 patients hospitalized with PE, we identified 1,521 patients treated with thrombolysis, of which 1,169 patients received systemic thrombolysis and 352 patients received CDT. After propensity-matched comparison, primary and secondary outcomes were significantly lower in the CDT group compared to systemic thrombolysis (21.81% vs. 13.36%, OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36-0.85, P value = 0.007) and (22.89% vs. 13.36%, OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.34-0.80, P value = 0.003), respectively. The median length of stay [7 days, interquartile range (IQR) (5-9 days) vs. 7 days, IQR (5-10 days), P = 0.17] was not significant between the two groups. The CDT group had higher cost of hospitalization [$17,218, IQR ($12,272-$23,906) vs. $23,799, IQR ($17,892-$35,338), P < 0.001]. Multivariate analysis identified increasing age, saddle PE, cardiopulmonary arrest, and Medicaid insurance as independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSIONS: CDT was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and combined in-hospital mortality and ICH.