Systematic review and meta-analysis of hepatitis E seroprevalence in Southeast Asia: a comprehensive assessment of epidemiological patterns.

The burden of hepatitis E in Southeast Asia is substantial, influenced by its distinct socio-economic and environmental factors, as well as variations in healthcare systems. The aim of this study was to assess the pooled seroprevalence of hepatitis E across countries within the Southeast Asian region by the UN division.The study analyzed 66 papers across PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases, encompassing data from of 44,850 individuals focusing on anti-HEV seroprevalence. The investigation spanned nine countries, excluding Brunei and East Timor due to lack of data. The pooled prevalence of anti-HEV IgG was determined to be 21.03%, with the highest prevalence observed in Myanmar (33.46%) and the lowest in Malaysia (5.93%). IgM prevalence was highest in Indonesia (12.43%) and lowest in Malaysia (0.91%). The study stratified populations into high-risk (farm workers, chronic patients) and low-risk groups (general population, blood donors, pregnant women, hospital patients). It revealed a higher IgG-28.9%, IgM-4.42% prevalence in the former group, while the latter group exhibited figures of 17.86% and 3.15%, respectively, indicating occupational and health-related vulnerabilities to HEV.A temporal analysis (1987-2023), indicated an upward trend in both IgG and IgM prevalence, suggesting an escalating HEV burden.These findings contribute to a better understanding of HEV seroprevalence in Southeast Asia, shedding light on important public health implications and suggesting directions for further research and intervention strategies.Key pointsResearch QuestionInvestigate the seroprevalence of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in Southeast Asian countries focusing on different patterns, timelines, and population cohorts.FindingsSporadic Transmission of IgG and IgM Prevalence:• Pooled anti-HEV IgG prevalence: 21.03%• Pooled anti-HEV IgM prevalence: 3.49%Seroprevalence among specific groups:High-risk group (farm workers and chronic patients):• anti-HEV IgG: 28.9%• anti-HEV IgM: 4.42%Low-risk group (general population, blood donors, pregnant women, hospital patients):• anti-HEV IgG: 17.86%• anti-HEV IgM: 3.15%Temporal Seroprevalence of HEV:Anti-HEV IgG prevalence increased over decades (1987-1999; 2000-2010; 2011-2023): 12.47%, 18.43%, 29.17% as an anti-HEV IgM prevalence: 1.92%, 2.44%, 5.27%ImportanceProvides a comprehensive overview of HEV seroprevalence in Southeast Asia.Highlights variation in seroprevalence among different population groups.Reveals increasing trend in HEV seroprevalence over the years.Distinguishes between sporadic and epidemic cases for a better understanding of transmission dynamics.

Epidemiological assessment of hepatitis E virus infection among 1565 pregnant women in Siem Reap, Cambodia using an in-house double antigen sandwich ELISA.

AIM: This study investigated hepatitis E virus (HEV) prevalence among pregnant women in Siem Reap, Cambodia, by developing a cost-effective, user-friendly in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for detecting total anti-HEV immunoglobulins (Ig). METHODS: The in-house ELISA was designed for large-scale screening in resource-limited settings. Its performance was benchmarked against two commercial tests: the Anti-HEV IgG EIA (Institute of Immunology, Co. Ltd) and the Anti-HEV IgG RecomLine LIA (Mikrogen). The in-house ELISA demonstrated a sensitivity of 76% and 71.4%, and a specificity of 94.1% and 98.6%, against the two commercial tests, respectively, with overall agreement rates of 92.4% and 94.3%. RESULTS: Among 1565 tested pregnant women, 11.6% were anti-HEV positive. Prevalence increased with age, particularly in women aged 35-40 years and over 40 years. No significant associations were found with education, number of children, family size, or history of blood transfusion and surgery, except for the occupation of the family head as a public officer. Of the total anti-HEV positive women, 22.7% had anti-HEV IgM, indicating recent or ongoing infection. CONCLUSION: The study concluded that the in-house ELISA is a viable option for HEV screening in regions with limited resources due to its high accuracy and cost-effectiveness. It is particularly suitable for large-scale studies and public health interventions in areas where HEV is endemic and poses a significant risk to pregnant women.

Early-Stage Chronic Kidney Disease and Related Health Care Spending.

Importance: The global burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is substantial and potentially leads to higher health care resource use. Objective: To examine the association between early-stage CKD and health care spending and its changes over time in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants: Cohort study using nationwide health checkup and medical claims data in Japan. Participants included individuals aged 30 to 70 years with estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) of 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater at the baseline screening in 2014. Data analyses were conducted from April 2021 to October 2023. Exposure: The CKD stages at baseline, defined by the eGFR and proteinuria, were as follows: eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater without proteinuria, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater with proteinuria, eGFR of 30 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria, and eGFR of 30 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 with proteinuria. Main Outcome and Measures: The primary outcome was excess health care spending, defined as the absolute difference in health care spending according to the baseline CKD stages (reference group: eGFR ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria) in the baseline year (2014) and in the following 5 years (2015 to 2019). Results: Of the 79 988 participants who underwent a health checkup (mean [SD] age, 47.0 [9.4] years; 22 027 [27.5%] female), 2899 (3.6%) had an eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 or greater with proteinuria, 1116 (1.4%) had an eGFR of 30 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 without proteinuria, and 253 (0.3%) had an eGFR of 30 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m2 with proteinuria. At baseline, the presence of proteinuria and an eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 were associated with greater excess health care spending (adjusted difference, $178; 99% CI, $6-$350 for proteinuria; $608; 99% CI, $233-$983 for an eGFR of 30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2; and $1254; 99% CI, $134-$2373 for their combination). The study consistently found excess health care spending over the following 5 examined years. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of nationwide health checkup and medical claims data in Japan, early-stage CKD was associated with excess health care spending over the 5 examined years, and the association was more pronounced with a more advanced disease stage.

Incidence and Prevalence of Epilepsy in Japan: A Retrospective Analysis of Insurance Claims Data of 9,864,278 Insured Persons.

INTRODUCTION: The burden of epilepsy is thought to be high but is difficult to measure. Very few studies in Japan have attempted to estimate prevalence and incidence rates of epilepsy in Japan. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used commercially collected nationwide insurance claims data from a cohort of 10 million persons between 2012 and 2019 among those aged 0 to 74 years. Using the claims data, cases were identified, and incidence and prevalence rates were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 9,864,278 persons were included. The average age was 34.5 (standard deviation, 18.5) years. A total of 77,312 persons were diagnosed with epilepsy over the 8-year observation period, with a prevalence rate of 6.0 per 1,000 persons with almost no difference by gender. The highest rates were seen among those aged 70-74 years; prevalence rates tended to rise with calendar year (5.4/1,000 in 2012 and 6.0/1,000 in 2019). The incidence rate of epilepsy was 72.1 per 100,000 person-years with slightly higher rates seen among females. Incidence rates were highest at ages less than 12 months (199.8/100,000 person-years), followed by the eldest age group (70-74 years, 179.4/100,000 person-years). CONCLUSION: Understanding the magnitude of disease burden is the basis of determining health policies. In this study, the prevalence and incidence of epilepsy in Japan was shown based on the analysis results of a large-scale general population insurance claims data covering all over Japan.

Economic burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Japan.

Controlling avoidable causes of cancer may save cancer-related healthcare costs and indirect costs of premature deaths and productivity loss. This study aimed to estimate the economic burden of cancer attributable to major lifestyle and environmental risk factors in Japan in 2015. We evaluated the economic cost of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors from a societal perspective. We obtained the direct medical costs for 2015 from the National Database of Health Insurance Claims and Specific Health Checkups of Japan, and estimated the indirect costs of premature mortality and of morbidity due to cancer using the relevant national surveys in Japan. Finally, we estimated the economic cost of cancer associated with lifestyle and environmental risk factors. The estimated cost of cancer attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors was 1,024,006 million Japanese yen (¥) (8,460 million US dollars [$]) for both sexes, and ¥673,780 million ($5,566 million) in men and ¥350,226 million ($2,893 million) in women, using the average exchange rate in 2015 ($1 = ¥121.044). A total of ¥285,150 million ($2,356 million) was lost due to premature death in Japan in 2015. Indirect morbidity costs that could have been prevented were estimated to be ¥200,602 million ($1,657 million). Productivity loss was highest for stomach cancer in men (¥28,735 million/$237 million) and cervical cancer in women (¥24,448 million/$202 million). Preventing and controlling cancers caused by infections including Helicobacter pylori, human papillomavirus and tobacco smoking will not only be life-saving but may also be cost-saving in the long run.

Development of performance indicators for hepatitis countermeasures as a tool for the assessment and promotion of liver cancer prevention in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis countermeasures are being promoted by governments in Japan. We aimed to develop performance indicators (PIs) to assess the process and outcome of such countermeasures implemented for the prevention of viral hepatitis-related liver cancer at the national and prefectural government levels. METHODS: We developed 19 PIs for hepatitis countermeasures implemented by local governments, covering the morbidity and mortality of liver cancer, hepatitis testing, subsidy programs for examinations and antiviral treatment, and education on hepatitis patient care to healthcare workers. We analyzed the PIs for each prefecture from Fiscal Year (FY) 2018-2020. RESULTS: The morbidity and mortality of liver cancer significantly decreased in the study period. The percentage of municipalities conducting hepatitis screening was already high at 95% in FY2017. The usage rate of government-subsidized screenings did not change. The subsidy usage rate for periodic viral hepatitis examination significantly increased. Meanwhile, the subsidy usage rate for antiviral treatment of hepatitis B increased, whereas that for hepatitis C decreased. The number of certified healthcare workers providing care for hepatitis patients increased significantly, and these workers were efficiently placed at regional core centers, institutions specialized in liver diseases, health care centers, and municipal governments. Liver cancer mortality was positively correlated with hepatitis screening, subsidies for periodic examinations, and the number of hepatitis medical care coordinators but was negatively correlated with subsidies for anti-HCV therapy, suggesting that rigorous countermeasures were implemented in prefectures with high liver cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The developed PIs could be a useful tool for monitoring government efforts and achievements, thereby providing basic data for setting practical goals in liver cancer prevention.

Impact of antiviral therapy for disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in patients with chronic hepatitis C: Markov chain model analysis.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Antiviral therapy advancements resulted in an era in which eradication of hepatitis C has become a goal, however, there are few reports on the long-term course of liver disease progression with antiviral therapy. The aim of this study was to use the Markov model to analyze disease progression and non-invasive liver fibrosis index in hepatitis C Patients. METHODS: Patients with chronic hepatitis C (n = 1432) were diagnosed between January 2012 and May 2021 in the Musashino Red Cross Hospital. Patients with other hepatitis virus co-infection, chronic liver disease, and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at the beginning of the study were excluded. A total of 618 patients with a 1-year or longer observation period were studied. The liver disease state was defined as chronic hepatitis (CH), compensated liver cirrhosis (CLC), decompensated liver cirrhosis (DLC), and HCC. RESULTS: Cirrhosis and high FIB-4 index (≥3.61) were 42 cases (6.8%) and 208 cases (33.6%), respectively at the start of the study. The 40 years estimated transition analysis of 40-year-old CH low FIB-4 level (<3.61) revealed that the proportion of CH low/high, CLC low/high, DLC low/high, and HCC were 10.83%/10.86%, 0.35%/2.64%, 0%/3.21% 72.11% in untreated unit and 47.83%/9.21%, 6.69%/1.32%, 0.70%/0.99%, 33.27% in treated unit, respectively. Antiviral therapy suppressed liver fibrosis, disease progression, and HCC development significantly. CONCLUSION: Markov model analysis of hepatitis C virus patients showed the impact of antiviral therapy on the suppression of disease progression in the order of CH, CLC, and DLC.

Comparison of liver disease state progression in patients with eradication of versus persistent infection with hepatitis C virus: Markov chain analysis.

To investigate the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) eradication after antiviral therapy versus those with persistent HCV infection. Four hundred and eighty patients (5259 person-years [PYs]) who received interferon-based therapy and achieved sustained virologic response and 848 patients (3853 PYs) with persistent HCV infection were included. In the analysis of 1-year liver disease state transition probability matrices using Markov chain models, progression to cirrhosis from the chronic hepatitis state was observed (0.00%-0.63%) in patients with HCV eradication. Among patients with chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis and HCV eradication, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was observed in males aged ≥ 50 years (0.97%-1.96%) and females aged ≥ 60 years (0.26%-5.00%). Additionally, in patients with cirrhosis and HCV eradication, improvement to chronic hepatitis was also observed (4.94%-10.64%). Conversely, in patients with chronic hepatitis and persistent HCV infection, progression to cirrhosis was observed in males aged ≥ 30 years and female aged ≥ 40 years (0.44%-1.99%). In males aged ≥ 40 years and female aged ≥ 50 years with cirrhosis, the transition probability for HCC was relatively high (4.17%-14.02%). Under the assumption of either chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis at age 40 or 60 years as the starting condition for simulation over the next 30 or 40 years, respectively, the probability of HCC was higher in patients with persistent HCV infection than those with HCV eradication. In conclusion, HCV eradication can reduce the risk of developing cirrhosis or HCC in patients with chronic HCV infection.

Long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with eradicated chronic hepatitis C virus: An analysis using a Markov chain model.

AIM: The long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have received antiviral therapy and who demonstrate HCV eradication remains incompletely characterized. In this study, we investigated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with eradication of HCV. METHODS: A total of 552 patients with chronic HCV infection (6815 person-years) who were treated with interferon-based therapy and who achieved sustained virologic response were included. Yearly transition probabilities for each liver state (chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC]) were calculated using a Markov chain model. RESULTS: In the analysis of 1-year liver disease state transition probabilities, progression to cirrhosis occurred in 0.5-2.1% of male patients with chronic hepatitis across all age groups. In male patients with cirrhosis, HCC developed in 0.6-1.9% of patients over the age of 50 years. In female patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis occurred in 0.4-2.1% of patients across all age groups. In addition, in female patients with cirrhosis, HCC developed in those aged 60-69 (0.4%) and 70-79 (0.4%) years. Under the assumption of either a chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis state at age 40 or 60 years as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 or 20 years, respectively, the probability of HCC gradually increased with age and was higher in male patients. CONCLUSIONS: The development or progression of cirrhosis and the development of HCC are risks in HCV patients despite HCV eradication, not only in those with cirrhosis but also in those with chronic hepatitis.

Hepatitis B surface antigen seroprevalence among pre- and post-vaccine cohorts in Cambodia, 2017.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is highly endemic in most low income countries including Cambodia. This nationwide serosurvey was conducted to assess the impact of hepatitis B vaccination and to determine whether Cambodia met the WHO regional 2017 target of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence less than 1% in five-year-old children. METHODS: A cross-sectional multi-stage cluster survey was conducted among children born during 2010-2012 and their mothers in Cambodia. HBsAg prevalence was estimated by rapid point-of-care testing, and demographic data, including vaccination history, was collected. Vaccine coverage in children and the prevalence of HBsAg among children and mothers was calculated taking into account the complex survey design. Factors associated with children's failure to receive timely (within 24 h) vaccination were analysed by multivariate logistic analysis. FINDINGS: A total of 2,520 children 5-7 years old and 2,028 mothers were recruited. In total, 78.4% of children received hepatitis B vaccination birth-dose (HepB-BD); of these, 58.7% were administered ≤ 24 h. Birth at home or "other" location were independent risk factors for children's failure to receive timely HepB-BD. Overall HBsAg seroprevalence was 4.39% (95%CI: 3.53%-5.45%) among mothers and 0.56% (95%CI: 0.32%-0.98%) among children. The prevalence among children without hepatitis B vaccination was 4.62% (95%CI: 1.31%-14.97%). Among children with a HBsAg-positive mother, prevalence was 10.11% (95%CI: 5.41%-18.11%). INTERPRETATION: Having achieved the 2017 target of less than 1% HBsAg prevalence among 5 years old children, Cambodia can now focus on eliminating mother-to-child transmission of HBV. Moreover, the high HBsAg prevalence among mothers suggests that routine screening with proper linkage to care and treatment is needed. Strengthening measures to improve vaccination coverage further and eliminate mother-to-child transmission by coordinated programming with other services offering additional HBV interventions will help move towards the global goal of hepatitis B elimination by 2030. FUNDING: As per sources of funding.

Natural history of liver-related disease in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus infection: An analysis using a Markov chain model.

BACKGROUND: Long-term prognosis of patients with chronic hepatitis C infection (HCV) remains incompletely characterized. We investigated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with chronic HCV infection who have not received antiviral therapy. METHODS: A total of 2304 patients with chronic HCV who were not received interferon-based therapy were included. RESULTS: In the assessment of 1-year disease state of liver transition probabilities, progression to chronic hepatitis occurred in 12% to 14% of patients across all age groups in male asymptomatic carriers. In male patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (7.6%) and ≥70 age groups (9.6%). In addition, in male patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in approximately 5% of patients over the age of 40. In female asymptomatic carriers, progression to chronic hepatitis was observed in 6% to 14% of patients across all age groups. In female patients with chronic hepatitis, progression to cirrhosis was observed mostly in the 60 to 69 (8.7%) and ≥70 (7.4%) age groups. In addition, in female patients with cirrhosis, HCC development occurred in 0.9% to 3.3% of patients over the age of 50. Under assumptions of either chronic hepatitis or asymptomatic carrier state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the following 40 years, the probability of HCC gradually increased with age and was higher in male patients. CONCLUSIONS: There is a risk of cirrhosis or HCC development in HCV patients with not only chronic hepatitis but the asymptomatic carrier state as well.

Long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy: an analysis using a Markov chain model.

AIM: Even during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy, development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been observed in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. We simulated the long-term prognosis of liver disease in patients with chronic HBV who received nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 254 patients with chronic HBV receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy were enrolled. Yearly transition probabilities between liver disease states [chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis, HCC, and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-negative status] were calculated using a Markov chain model. RESULTS: In the analysis of 1-year liver disease state transition probabilities, the development of HCC occurred in men with chronic hepatitis in their 50s (1.8%) and at least 70 years (2.8%) and in patients with cirrhosis in all age groups (40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and ≥ 70 years). HBsAg-negative status was present in patients with chronic hepatitis in their 50s (1.8%) and 60s (2.6%), and in patients with cirrhosis in their 60s (0.6%). In female patients, the development of HCC occurred in patients with cirrhosis during their 50s (0.8%), 60s (0.8%), and older (4.5%). HBsAg-negative status was simulated in patients with cirrhosis in their 50s (0.8%) and 60s (0.8%). Assuming a chronic hepatitis state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 years, the probability of developing HCC increased gradually with age in male patients and in female patients after the age of 70 years. CONCLUSION: There is a risk of development of HCC in middle-aged men with chronic hepatitis or cirrhosis and older women with cirrhosis even while receiving nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy.

New Diagnostic Criteria for the Localization of Insulinomas with the Selective Arterial Calcium Injection Test: Decision Tree Analysis.

PURPOSE: To explore optimal diagnostic criteria for localizing insulinomas with the selective arterial calcium injection (SACI) test using decision tree analysis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective study included 86 vessels of 18 patients (5 men, 13 women; mean age 67 y; range, 49-73 y) with insulinomas who underwent SACI test between June 2007 and May 2016. Of 27 insulinomas, 7 were found in the head, 13 in the body, and 7 in the tail of the pancreas. Two patients had multiple tumors. To identify optimal diagnostic criteria, decision tree analysis was performed, and sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the conventional and the proposed new diagnostic criteria (plasma insulin concentration after calcium injection [ICpost] > 2.0 × plasma insulin concentration before calcium injection [ICpre]) were compared. RESULTS: The proposed new diagnostic criteria for insulinoma obtained by decision tree analysis were (i) ICpost > 2.7 × ICpre and maximum insulin concentration > 60.3 µIU/mL or (ii) ICpost > 2.7 × ICpre and maximum insulin concentration < 60.3 µIU/mL with ICpre being ≥ 7.5 µIU/mL. Sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the new criteria for the SACI test were 100%, 91.4%, and 94.2; sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of conventional criteria were 100%, 69.0%, and 79.1%. CONCLUSIONS: New diagnostic criteria for localization of insulinomas with the SACI test yielded higher diagnostic performance than conventional criteria.

Natural course of persistent hepatitis B virus infection in hepatitis B e antigen-positive and hepatitis B e antigen-negative cohorts in Japan based on the Markov model.

This population-based study examined the natural course of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive or HBeAg-negative persistent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, adjusted by age and liver disease states using a Markov model. Using 12 417 person-years data (n = 862), annual transition probabilities were estimated, and age-adjusted cumulative incidence and natural history of persistent HBV infection were simulated in both sexes of groups 1 (HBeAg-negative status with HBV DNA level <4.0 log IU/mL at entry) and 2 (persistent HBeAg-positive status throughout the study). In group 1, 15.26% of 30-years old men with chronic hepatitis (CH) were expected to remain in the same state at age 65 years, 28.32% subsided into an hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-negative state, and 13.20% developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The expectations for 40-years old men in group 1 were 21.43%, 19.86%, and 15.04%, respectively. The expectations for 30 years women in group 1 were 30.57%, 21.15%, and 4.08%, respectively. These results suggest that HBeAg positivity caused a higher risk of HCC onset in persistent HBV infection after adjustments for age, sex, and liver disease state. HCC was likely to develop, but unlikely to subside into HBsAg clearance, remaining in a CH state with aging, regardless of HBeAg state. Furthermore, both HCC development and HBsAg clearance occurred more frequently in men than in women, irrespective of HBeAg status.

Modeling NAFLD disease burden in China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States for the period 2016-2030.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) are increasingly a cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma globally. This burden is expected to increase as epidemics of obesity, diabetes and metabolic syndrome continue to grow. The goal of this analysis was to use a Markov model to forecast NAFLD disease burden using currently available data. METHODS: A model was used to estimate NAFLD and NASH disease progression in eight countries based on data for adult prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Published estimates and expert consensus were used to build and validate the model projections. RESULTS: If obesity and DM level off in the future, we project a modest growth in total NAFLD cases (0-30%), between 2016-2030, with the highest growth in China as a result of urbanization and the lowest growth in Japan as a result of a shrinking population. However, at the same time, NASH prevalence will increase 15-56%, while liver mortality and advanced liver disease will more than double as a result of an aging/increasing population. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD and NASH represent a large and growing public health problem and efforts to understand this epidemic and to mitigate the disease burden are needed. If obesity and DM continue to increase at current and historical rates, both NAFLD and NASH prevalence are expected to increase. Since both are reversible, public health campaigns to increase awareness and diagnosis, and to promote diet and exercise can help manage the growth in future disease burden. LAY SUMMARY: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis can lead to advanced liver disease. Both conditions are becoming increasingly prevalent as the epidemics of obesity and diabetes continue to increase. A mathematical model was built to understand how the disease burden associated with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis will change over time. Results suggest increasing cases of advanced liver disease and liver-related mortality in the coming years.

Long-term natural history of liver disease in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus infection: an analysis using the Markov chain model.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) seroconversion and the long-term natural history of liver disease has not been sufficiently investigated. METHODS: A total of 408 [4352 person-year (PY) units] patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) without antiviral therapy were enrolled. The study patients were divided into three groups, as follows: Group A (2666 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age < 40; Group B (413 PY units), seroconverted of HBeAg at age ≥ 40; Group C (1273 PY units), persistently HBeAg positive. Yearly transition probabilities from each liver state [chronic HBV infection, chronic hepatitis B, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) negativity] were calculated using the Markov chain model. RESULTS: In the analysis of 1 year liver disease state transition probabilities, the liver states remained almost the same in Group A. In Groups B and C, each liver state tended to progress to a worse state. Assuming a chronic hepatitis B state at age 40 as the starting condition for simulation over the next 40 years, the chronic hepatitis B state accounted for approximately 60% of males aged ≥ 50 and approximately 40% of females aged ≥ 60 in Group A, and the HBsAg-negative state accounted for approximately 30-40% of males and females aged ≥ 60. In Groups B and C, the probabilities of patients with cirrhosis and HCC gradually increased with age. CONCLUSIONS: Not only patients with persistent HBeAg positive, but also patients with delayed HBeAg seroconversion showed poor prognosis of liver-related natural history.

Cost-effectiveness analyses of anti-hepatitis C virus treatments using quality of life scoring among patients with chronic liver disease in Hiroshima prefecture, Japan.

AIM: We estimated the cost-effectiveness of direct-acting antiviral treatment (DAA) compared to triple therapy (simeprevir, pegylated interferon-α [Peg-IFN], and ribavirin [RBV]) (scenario 1), Peg-IFN + RBV (scenario 2), and non-antiviral therapy (scenario 3). METHODS: Cost-effectiveness was evaluated as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using direct costs and indirect costs, which included loss of wages during the patient's lifetime due to early death caused by viral hepatitis infection. Quality of life (QOL) scores were determined by EQ-5D-3L questionnaire survey on 200 HCV patients in Hiroshima. RESULTS: The QOL scores for chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma were estimated as 0.871, 0.774, and 0.780, respectively. The follow-up period that the ICER of scenario 1 becomes shortest (cost <¥6 million) was 25 years after treatment in men and women who started treatment at the age of 20-60. In contrast, those of scenarios 2 and 3 was 10 years after treatment in patients who started treatment at age <80 years. Based on the sensitivity analysis in scenario 1, the most significant factor affecting the value of ICER is the QOL score after sustained virologic response (SVR), followed by the SVR rate of DAA or follow-up period. CONCLUSIONS: Direct-acting antiviral treatment was estimated to be cost-effective from 10 to 25 years after treatment, depending on the SVR rate of the drugs and the age of onset of treatment. In order to increase the cost-effectiveness of DAA treatment, measures or effort to improve the QOL score of patients after SVR are necessary.

Predicting future blood supply and demand in Japan with a Markov model: application to the sex- and age-specific probability of blood donation.

BACKGROUND: Simulation studies were performed to predict the future supply and demand for blood donations, and future shortfalls. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Using data from all donations in 2006 to 2009, the Markov model was applied to estimate future blood donations until 2050. Based on data concerning the actual use of blood products, the number of blood products needed was estimated based on future population projections. RESULTS: We estimated that the number of blood donations increased from 5,020,000 in 2008 to 5,260,000 in 2012, but will decrease to 4,770,000 units by 2025. In particular, the number of donors in their 20s and 30s decreased every year. Moreover, the number of donations required to supply blood products would have been increased from 5,390,000 in 2012 to 5,660,000 units in 2025. Thus, the estimated shortfall of blood donations is expected to increase each year from 140,000 in 2012 to 890,000 in 2025 and then more than double to 1,670,000 in 2050. CONCLUSION: If the current blood donation behaviors continue, a shortfall of blood availability is likely to occur in Japan. Insufficient blood donations are mainly related to a projected reduction in population of 20 to 30 year olds, a significant group of donors. Thus, it is crucial to recruit and retain new donors and to develop recommendations for proper use of blood products to minimize unnecessary use. This study provides useful information that can be used by governments to help ensure the adequacy of the blood supply through promoting donations and conserving blood resources.

Follow-up study of the regional quota system of Japanese medical schools and prefecture scholarship programmes: a study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Given the shortage of physicians, particularly in rural areas, the Japanese government has rapidly expanded the number of medical school students by adding chiikiwaku (regional quotas) since 2008. Quota entrants now account for 17% of all medical school entrants. Quota entrants are usually local high school graduates who receive a scholarship from the prefecture government. In exchange, they temporarily practise in that prefecture, including its rural areas, after graduation. Many prefectures also have scholarship programmes for non-quota students in exchange for postgraduate in-prefecture practice. The objective of this cohort study, conducted by the Japanese Council for Community-based Medical Education, is to evaluate the outcomes of the quota admission system and prefecture scholarship programmes nationwide. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: There are 3 groups of study participants: quota without scholarship, quota with scholarship and non-quota with scholarship. Under the support of government ministries and the Association of Japan Medical Colleges, and participation of all prefectures and medical schools, passing rate of the National Physician License Examination, scholarship buy-out rate, geographic distribution and specialties distribution of each group are analysed. Participants who voluntarily participated are followed by linking their baseline information to data in the government's biennial Physician Census. Results to date have shown that, despite medical schools' concerns about academic quality, the passing rate of the National Physician License Examination in each group was higher than that of all medical school graduates. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Ethics Committee for Epidemiological Research of Hiroshima University and the Research Ethics Committee of Nagasaki University Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences permitted this study. No individually identifiable results will be presented in conferences or published in journals. The aggregated results will be reported to concerned government ministries, associations, prefectures and medical schools as data for future policy planning.

Cost-effectiveness of the introduction of low-dose CT screening in Japanese smokers aged 55 to 74 years old.

The validity of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer in heavy smokers was supported by the results of National Lung Screening Trials (NLST) conducted in the U.S.A. The present study investigated the appropriateness of the introduction of low-dose CT screening for lung cancer in Japanese smokers aged between 55 and 74 years old, in terms of cost-effectiveness and age. To examine changes in the shift from conventional chest radiography (CR) to low-dose CT (LDCT) screening for lung cancer, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) using Iinuma's mathematical model, and also conducted sensitivity analysis to determine the requirements for the introduction of a population-based screening. As the result, the incremental cost for one life-year saved was one million yen or lower when the costs of the screening were 8,000 and 6,000 yen and the recall rate was 10% for male and female smokers aged 55 to 59 years old, respectively. The recall rate was smaller when the interval between cancer screenings was two years, and the subjects were males. The higher the age of the subject, the smaller the incremental cost. In conclusion, at present, the mean cost of the LDCT test is approximately 10,000 yen in Japan. With a reduction in this cost by a few thousand yen, all Japanese smokers aged 55 to 74 years will be able to undergo LDCT screening for lung cancer annually.