Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Screening for Blunt Cerebrovascular Injury: A Markov Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Blunt cerebrovascular injury (BCVI) is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality after blunt trauma. Numerous screening strategies exist, although which is used is institution- and physician-dependent. We sought to identify the most cost-effective screening strategy for BCVI, hypothesizing that universal screening would be optimal among the screening strategies studied. STUDY DESIGN: A Markov decision analysis model was used to compare the following screening strategies for identification of BCVI: (1) no screening; (2) Denver criteria; (3) extended Denver criteria; (4) Memphis criteria; and (5) universal screening. The base-case scenario modeled 50-year-old patients with blunt traumatic injury excluding isolated extremity injures. Patients with BCVI detected on imaging were assumed to be treated with antithrombotic therapy, subsequently decreasing risk of stroke and mortality. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed on key model inputs. A single-year horizon was used with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio threshold of $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. RESULTS: The most cost-effective screening strategy for patients with blunt trauma among the strategies analyzed was universal screening. This method resulted in the lowest stroke rate, mortality, and cost, and highest quality-adjusted life-year. An estimated 3,506 strokes would be prevented annually as compared with extended Denver criteria (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $71,949 for universal screening vs incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $12,736 for extended Denver criteria per quality-adjusted life-year gained) if universal screening were implemented in the US. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, universal screening was the optimal strategy when the incidence of BCVI was greater than 6%. CONCLUSIONS: This model suggests universal screening may be the cost-effective strategy for BCVI screening in blunt trauma for certain trauma centers. Trauma centers should develop institutional protocols that take into account individual BCVI rates.

Elevated K/iCa ratio is an ancillary predictor for mortality in patients with severe hemorrhage: A decision tree analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Trauma patients receiving massive transfusion protocol (MTP) are at risk of citrate-induced hypocalcemia and hyperkalemia. Here we evaluate potassium (K), ionized calcium (iCa), and K/iCa ratio as predictors of mortality. METHODS: This retrospective study includes all adult trauma patients who received MTP within 1 h at our level I trauma center between 2014 and 2019. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis assessed predictive accuracy of K/iCa ratio at admission on 120-day mortality. RESULTS: Of 614 patients, 146 received MTP within 1 h and 38 expired. Patients who expired had higher K/iCa ratio than survivors (median [IQR] = 5.7 [3.8-7.2] vs 3.7 [3.1-4.9], p < 0.001). Area under the curve of K/iCa was 0.72 (95%CI = 0.62-0.82, p < 0.001) with sensitivity = 63.2% and specificity = 77.6%. At the optimum K/iCa cutoff (5.07), patients with high ratios had 4 times higher mortality risk (HR = 3.97, 95%CI = 1.89-8.32, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Elevated K/iCa ratio was an independent predictor of mortality in trauma patients managed with MTP.

The burden of readmission after discharge from necrotizing soft tissue infection.

BACKGROUND: The need for extensive surgical debridement with necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTIs) may put patients at high risk for unplanned readmission. However, there is a paucity of data on the burden of readmission in patients afflicted with NSTI. We hypothesized that unplanned readmission would significantly contribute to the burden of disease after discharge from initial hospitalization. METHODS: The Nationwide Readmission Database was used to identify adults undergoing debridement for NSTI hospitalizations from 2010 to 2017. Risk factors for 90-day readmission were assessed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: There were a total of 82,738 NSTI admissions during the study period, of which 25,076 (30.3%) underwent 90-day readmissions. Median time to readmission was 25 days (interquartile range, 9-49 days). Fragmentation of care, longer length of index stay (>2 weeks), and Medicaid status were independent risk factors for readmission. Median cost of a readmission was US $10,543. Readmission added 174,640 hospital days to episodes of care over the study period, resulting in an estimated financial burden of US $1.4 billion. CONCLUSION: Unplanned readmission caused by NSTIs is common and costly. Interventions that target patients at risk for readmission may help decrease the burden of disease. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic/Epidemiological, level IV.

The Association of Payer Status and Injury Patterns in Pediatric Bicycle Injuries.

BACKGROUND: Bicycle injuries continue to cause significant morbidity in the United States. How insurance status affects outcomes in children with bicycle injuries has not been defined. We hypothesized that payer status would not impact injury patterns or outcomes in pediatric bicycle-related accidents. METHODS: The National Trauma Data Bank was used to identify pediatric (≤18 y) patients involved in bicycle-related crashes admitted in year 2016. Patients with private insurance were compared with all others (uninsured, Medicaid, and Medicare). RESULTS: There were 5619 patients that met study criteria. Of these, 2500 (44%) had private insurance. Privately insured were older (12 y versus 11, P < 0.001), more likely to be white (77% versus 56%, P < 0.001), and more likely to wear a helmet (26% versus 9%, P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, factors associated with traumatic brain injury included age (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.08; P < 0.001) and helmet use (OR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.55-0.74; P < 0.001). Patients without private insurance were significantly less likely to wear a helmet (OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.44-0.63; P < 0.001). Uninsured patients had significantly higher odds of a fatal injury (OR, 4.43; 95% CI, 1.52-12.92; P = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Uninsured children that present to a trauma center after a bicycle accident are more likely to die. Although helmet use reduced the odds of traumatic brain injury, minorities and children without private insurance were less likely to be helmeted. Public health interventions should increase helmet access to children without private insurance, especially uninsured children.

Did the Affordable Care Act Reach Penetrating Trauma Patients?

BACKGROUND: The benefits of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) for trauma patients have been well established. However, the ACA's impact on penetrating trauma patients (PTPs), a population that is historically young and uninsured, has not been defined. We hypothesized that PTPs in the post-ACA era would have better outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB) was queried for all PTPs from 2009 (pre-ACA) and 2011-2014 (post-ACA). Subset analysis was performed in patients aged 19-25 y, as this group was eligible for the ACA's dependent care provision (DCP). RESULTS: There were 9,714,471 patients in the study, with 2,053,501 (21.1%) pre-ACA and 7,660,970 (78.9%) post-ACA. When compared to pre-ACA, patients in the post-ACA cohort were more likely to have commercial/private insurance, less likely to have Medicaid, and more likely to be uninsured. On logistic regression, the pre-ACA era was associated with mortality (HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04, P = 0.004). Being uninsured was associated with mortality (HR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.87-1.92, P < 0.001). On subset analysis of the DCP age group, post-ACA patients were more likely to be uninsured (24.1% versus 17.6%; P < 0.001). In addition, for the DCP age group, pre-ACA era was not associated with mortality (HR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.99-1.06, P = 0.20). CONCLUSIONS: Although the ACA provided a survival benefit to PTPs overall, it did not increase insurance coverage for this population. In addition, the DCP of the ACA did not improve insurance access for PTP in the eligible age group. Further efforts are needed to extend insurance access to this population.