Modelling estimates of the burden of respiratory syncytial virus infection in children in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: The burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) illness is not well characterised in primary care. We estimated the burden of disease attributable to RSV in children in the UK between 1995 and 2009. DESIGN: Time-series regression modelling. SETTING: A multiple linear regression model based on weekly viral surveillance (RSV and influenza, Public Health England), and controlled for non-specific seasonal drivers of disease, estimated the proportion of general practitioner (GP) episodes of care (counted as first visit in a series within 28 days; Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD), hospitalisations (Hospital Episode Statistics, HES) and deaths (Office of National Statistics, ONS) attributable to RSV each season. PARTICIPANTS: Children 0-17 years registered with a GP in CPRD, or with a respiratory disease outcome in the HES or ONS databases. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: RSV-attributable burden of GP episodes, hospitalisations and deaths due to respiratory disease by age. RSV-attributable burden associated with selected antibiotic prescriptions. RESULTS: RSV-attributable respiratory disease in the UK resulted in an estimated 450 158 GP episodes, 29 160 hospitalisations and 83 deaths per average season in children and adolescents, with the highest proportions in children <6 months of age (14 441/100 000 population, 4184/100 000 and 6/100 000, respectively). In an average season, there were an estimated 125 478 GP episodes for otitis media and 416 133 prescriptions for antibiotics attributable to RSV. More GP episodes, hospitalisations and deaths from respiratory disease were attributable to RSV than to influenza in children under 5 years. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of RSV in children in the UK exceeds that of influenza. RSV in children and adolescents contributes substantially to GP office visits for a diverse range of illnesses, and was associated with an average 416 133 prescribed antibiotic courses per season. Effective antiviral treatments and preventive vaccines are urgently needed for the management of RSV infection in children. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01706302.

Direct comparison of liquid-based and conventional cytology in a South African screening trial.

Our study directly compares the performance of liquid-based (LBC) and conventional cytology for detecting high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and cancer (CIN 2+) in high-risk, previously unscreened women. As part of a larger randomized clinical trial assessing the efficacy and safety of a "screen and treat" program for cervical cancer prevention, 5,652 South African women, aged 35 to 65 years, were screened using either ThinPrep or conventional Papanicolaou cytology. The cytology method used (i.e., ThinPrep or conventional) was rotated on a 6-month basis for the duration of the study. Directly following collection of the cytology specimen, all women underwent colposcopy with endocervical curettage and biopsy of all colposcopic abnormalities. Assessment of cytology and histology results was blinded and results were compared using histology-confirmed CIN as the "gold standard." The accuracy of LBC and conventional cytology was statistically equivalent, although the sensitivity of conventional cytology was at least 5 percentage points higher at all cutoff levels. For example, at a cytology cutoff level of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, the sensitivity of LBC was 60.3% for CIN2+ vs. 69.1% for conventional cytology and specificity was 94.1% and 94.5%, respectively. LBC specimens were significantly less likely to be "satisfactory-but-limited-by" (6.5% vs. 27.9%) but significantly more likely to be unsatisfactory (2.2% vs. 0.8%). Thus, in this high-risk population, the sensitivity of LBC is no greater than the sensitivity of conventional cytology. Because of the higher unit cost of LBC, low resource settings should carefully consider the potential benefits and drawbacks of LBC before adopting this new technology.