The National Bowel Cancer Project: social deprivation is an independent predictor of nonrestorative rectal cancer surgery.

PURPOSE: This study was designed to assess the impact of social deprivation on rates of abdominoperineal excision of the rectum in the United Kingdom. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland Colorectal Cancer Database (2000-2005). Social deprivation was assessed by using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (2004) score. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of nonrestorative surgery. RESULTS: A total of 12,128 patients underwent anterior resection or abdominoperineal excision for Dukes A-C cancer in 101 centers; 2,625 patients (21.6 percent) underwent abdominoperineal excision (median, 20.8 (interquartile range, 16.5-27.9) percent per unit). Abdominoperineal excision rates decreased from 24.3 to 18.2 percent (P < 0.001) and varied between the least and most deprived groups from 18 to 26.4 percent, respectively (P < 0.001). Independent predictors of abdominoperineal excision were: year of surgery (odds ratio = 0.855 per year increase, P < 0.001), female vs. male gender (odds ratio = 0.82, P < 0.001), use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy (odds ratio = 2.4, P < 0.001), and social deprivation (most vs. least deprived: odds ratio = 1.638, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Abdominoperineal excision rates vary considerably between centers. Gender and deprivation status independently predict formation of a permanent stoma. These results have important implications for intercenter comparisons of surgical quality and may suggest inequalities in health care provision.

Outcomes of Crohn's disease presenting with abdominopelvic abscess.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical outcomes, quality-adjusted life-years, and the cost-effectiveness gained from percutaneous drainage followed by elective surgery vs. initial surgery for abdominopelvic abscesses related to Crohn's disease. METHODS: All consecutive patients with spontaneous Crohn's disease-related abdominopelvic abscess from 1997 to 2007 were reviewed. The authors excluded postoperative and perirectal abscesses. Decision analysis during one year of patient life was used to calculate quality-adjusted life-years and the cost-effectiveness of each strategy. RESULTS: Of 94 patients, 48 (51 percent) were initially approached with percutaneous drainage. Thirty-one (65 percent) had successful percutaneous drainage and delayed elective surgery. The factors significantly associated with percutaneous drainage failure were steroid use, colonic phenotype, and multiple or multilocular abscesses. The initial treatment was surgery in the remaining 46 (49 percent) patients. The initial approach with percutaneous drainage gave higher quality-adjusted life-years and was more cost-effective than initial surgery. Percutaneous drainage was the optimal strategy in spite of the risk of failure and septic complications within the plausible range. CONCLUSIONS: Percutaneous drainage failure is associated with steroid use, colonic phenotype, and multiple or multilocular abscesses. When feasible, percutaneous drainage is the most effective strategy from the perspective of patients and third-party payers.

Operative strategies for diverticular peritonitis: a decision analysis between primary resection and anastomosis versus Hartmann's procedures.

OBJECTIVE: To compare primary resection and anastomosis (PRA) with and without defunctioning stoma to Hartmann's procedure (HP) as the optimal operative strategy for patients presenting with Hinchey stage III-IV, perforated diverticulitis. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The choice of operation for perforated diverticulitis lies between HP and PRA. Postoperative mortality and morbidity can be high, and the long-term consequences life-altering, with no established criteria guiding clinicians towards selecting a particular procedure. METHODS: Probability estimates for 6879 patients with Hinchey III-IV perforated diverticulitis were obtained from two databases (n = 204), supplemented by expert opinion and summary data from 12 studies (n = 6675) published between 1980 and 2005. The primary outcome was quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from each strategy. Factors considered were the risk of permanent stoma, morbidity, and mortality from the primary or reversal operations. Decision analysis from the patient's perspective was used to calculate the optimal operative strategy and sensitivity analysis performed. RESULTS: A total of 135 PRA, 126 primary anastomoses with defunctioning stoma (PADS), and 6619 Hartmann's procedures (HP) were considered. The probability of morbidity and mortality was 55% and 30% for PRA, 40% and 25% for PADS, and 35% and 20% for HP, respectively. Stomas remained permanent in 27% of HP and in 8% of PADS. Analysis revealed the optimal strategy to be PADS with 9.98 QALYs, compared with 9.44 QALYs after HP and 9.02 QALYs after PRA. Complications after PRA reduced patients QALYs to a baseline of 2.713. Patients with postoperative complications during both primary and reversal operations for PADS and HP had QALYs of 0.366 and 0.325, respectively. HP became the optimal strategy only when risk of complications after PRA and PADS reached 50% and 44%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Primary anastomosis with defunctioning stoma may be the optimal strategy for selected patients with diverticular peritonitis as may represent a good compromise between postoperative adverse events, long-term quality of life and risk of permanent stoma. HP may be reserved for patients with risk of complications >40% to 50% after consideration of long-term implications.

Does Doppler echography have a diagnostic role in patency assessment of internal thoracic artery grafts?

The amount of literature published over the past decade comparing coronary angiography with transthoracic Doppler echocardiography assessment of internal thoracic artery graft patency after CABG is substantial. There has been no review of the available literature, and conflicting reports of diagnostic accuracy have prevented routine use of transthoracic Doppler in graft patency assessment. Thus, this article reviews the available literature on diagnostic accuracy of transthoracic Doppler echocardiography of coronary bypass grafts. Relevant studies were identified and meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy was performed. Study quality was assessed. Quantitative data synthesis included calculation of sensitivity, specificity, summary receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, pooled analysis and meta-regression of accuracy against study quality, publication date, angina, probe frequency and diagnostic criteria. Twenty studies of 929 patients produced 26 results included for analysis. Grafts were not visualized in 93 (10%) patients. Pooled sensitivity (85%) and specificity (94%) and diagnostic odds ratio (100.7) were high. SROC analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.96. Heterogeneity of results was due to variations in diagnostic criteria and study size. Subgroup analysis showed best performance in patients with postoperative angina (p = 0.014). Study quality did not affect results. Diastolic fraction less than 0.5 (sensitivity 89%, specificity 94%) was shown to be the best criterion for prediction of stenosis. Performance was lower using peak diastolic to systolic velocity ratio less than 1 (sensitivity 85%, specificity 86%). Transthoracic Doppler echography is effective in first-line assessment of left internal thoracic artery graft patency. It shows high specificity, prevents invasive investigations and improves in patients with postoperative angina. TDE is best used in combination with other non-invasive tests due to its inability to visualize the graft. The potential for use in postoperative coronary bypass patients is high.

Surgical mortality score: risk management tool for auditing surgical performance.

Existing methods of risk adjustment in surgical audit are complex and costly. The present study aimed to develop a simple risk stratification score for mortality and a robust audit tool using the existing resources of the hospital Patient Administration System (PAS) database. This was an observational study for all patients undergoing surgical procedures over a two-year period, at a London university hospital. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictive factors of in-hospital mortality, the study outcome. Odds ratios were used as weights in the derivation of a simple risk-stratification model-the Surgical Mortality Score (SMS). Observed-to-expected mortality risk ratios were calculated for application of the SMS model in surgical audit. There were 11,089 eligible cases, under five surgical specialties (maxillofacial, orthopedic, renal transplant/dialysis, general, and neurosurgery). Incomplete data were 3.7% of the total, with no evidence of systematic underreporting. The SMS model was well calibrated [Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic: development set (3.432, p = 0.33), validation set (6.359, p = 0.10) with a high discriminant ability (ROC areas: development set [0.837, S.E.=0.013] validation set [0.816, S.E. = 0.016]). Subgroup analyses confirmed that the model can be used by the individual specialties for both elective and emergency cases. The SMS is an accurate risk- stratification model derived from existing database resources. It is simple to apply as a risk-management, screening tool to detect aberrations from expected surgical outcomes and to assist in surgical audit.

Assessment of operative risk in colorectal cancer surgery: the Cleveland Clinic Foundation colorectal cancer model.

INTRODUCTION: Predictive models play a pivotal role in the provision of risk-adjusted, operative mortality rates. The purpose of the study was to describe the development of a dedicated prognostic index for quantifying operative risk in colorectal cancer surgery. METHODS: Data were collected from 5,034 consecutive patients undergoing major surgery in a single center from October 1976 to July 2002. Primary end point was 30-day operative mortality. A multilevel Bayesian logistic regression model was developed to adjust for case-mix and accommodate the variability of outcomes between surgeons. The model was internally validated (split-sample) and tested using measures of discrimination, calibration, and subgroup analysis. RESULTS: The patients' median age was 66 (range, 18-98) years. Operative mortality was 2.3 percent with no significant variability between surgeons or through time. Multivariate analysis identified the following independent risk factors: age (odds ratio = 1.5 per 10-year increase), American Society of Anesthesiologists grade (odds ratio for ASA II, III, IV-V vs. I = 2.6, 4.3, 6.8), TNM staging (odds ratio for Stage IV vs. I-III = 2.6), mode of surgery (odds ratio for urgent vs. nonurgent = 2.1) no-cancer resection vs. cancer resection (odds ratio = 4.5), and hematocrit level. The model offered adequate discrimination (area under receiver operator characteristic curve = 0.801) and excellent agreement between observed and model-predicted outcomes over ten major colorectal procedures (P = 0.191). CONCLUSIONS: The colorectal cancer model provided an accurate means of estimating risk for individual patients in the preoperative setting. It has important implications in everyday practice, because it may be used as an adjunct in the process of informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time.