Bayesian regression methodology for estimating a receiver operating characteristic curve with two radiologic applications: prostate biopsy and spiral CT of ureteral stones.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The authors evaluated two Bayesian regression models for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis of continuous diagnostic outcome data with covariates. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Full and partial Bayesian regression models were applied to data from two studies (n = 180 and 100, respectively): (a) The diagnostic value of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels (outcome variable) for predicting disease after radical prostatectomy (gold standard) was evaluated for three risk groups (covariates) based on Gleason scores. (b) Spiral computed tomography was performed on patients with proved obstructing ureteral stones. The predictive value of stone size (outcome) was evaluated along with two treatment options (gold standard), as well as stone location (in or not in the ureterovesical junction [UVJ]) and patient age (covariates). Summary ROC measures were reported, and various prior distributions of the regression coefficients were investigated. RESULTS: (a) In the PSA example, the ROC areas under the full model were 0.667, 0.769, and 0.703, respectively, for the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. Under the partial model, the area beneath the ROC curve was 0.706. (b) The ROC areas for patients with ureteral stones in the UVJ decreased dramatically with age but otherwise were close to that under the partial model (ie, 0.774). The prior distribution had greater influence in the second example. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic tests were accurate in both examples. PSA levels were most accurate for staging prostate cancer among intermediate-risk patients. Stone size was predictive of treatment option for all patients other than those 40 years or older and with a stone in the UVJ.

Assessment of prostate cancer volume using endorectal coil magnetic resonance imaging: a new predictor of tumor response to neoadjuvant androgen suppression therapy.

OBJECTIVES: A clinical tool that can reliably assess prostate cancer response to androgen suppression is lacking. This pilot study was designed to identify the potential clinical factor(s) that correlate with tumor response after neoadjuvant therapy. METHODS: Twenty-one patients managed with definitive local therapy and neoadjuvant androgen suppression (median 3 months [range 2 to 7]) between 1995 and 1997 comprise the study population. Fisher's exact test was used to test the significance of the proportion of patients with a given clinical factor and the outcome of pathologic organ-confined disease. The clinical factors tested included preoperative prostate-specific antigen, biopsy Gleason score, clinical stage, months of total androgen suppression, the change in the endorectal magnetic resonance imaging (erMRI)-defined stage, the change in erMRI-defined tumor, and the change in the erMRI-defined prostate volume during neoadjuvant androgen suppression. RESULTS: All 21 patients had a decrease in the erMRI-determined prostate volume and prostate-specific antigen during androgen suppression, whereas only 10 of 21 (48%) had a reduction in the erMRI-determined tumor volume. There was a statistically significant increased proportion of patients with a decrease in the erMRI-determined tumor volume (P = 0.008) who had pathologic organ-confined disease. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this pilot study suggest that the changes in the erMRI-determined tumor volume occurring during androgen suppression may be predictive of the tumor response. Validation in a larger prospective study is currently underway.

MRI of the renal veins: assessment of nonneoplastic venous thrombosis.

Nonneoplastic renal vein thrombosis (RVT) is a clinical dilemma that poses a problem both from a clinical and diagnostic imaging perspective. An accurate noninvasive study to diagnose nonneoplastic RVT would be desirable. Magnetic resonance flow imaging is a noninvasive method of assessing vascular patency and depiction of thrombus. Its use for detection of nonneoplastic RVT is reviewed and our experience illustrated. We reviewed retrospectively the MRI studies in 41 patients evaluated for RVT and correlated them with other imaging studies where possible. Twenty patients had either ultrasound or venography. There were no correlative imaging studies done in 21 patients, 19 of whom had normal MRI, with normal clinical follow-up. In others there was good agreement between MRI and ultrasound in 16 of 19 cases. There were five patients with renal venography, of which the MRI agreed with the results in 3 of 5. Magnetic resonance imaging offers a noninvasive approach to the difficult diagnostic dilemma of RVT.

Accuracy of in-vivo assessment of prostatic volume by MRI and transrectal ultrasonography.

More accurate noninvasive estimation of prostate size is important in therapeutic trials for benign prostatic hyperplasia. The accuracy of MRI and transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) in assessing prostate weight was evaluated in 48 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy for stage A or B cancer. The volume derived from the wet weight of the freshly excised specimen was used as a reference. We compared that volume with volume estimates derived from the three-axis linear dimension measurement by MRI and TRUS using a tissue density of 1.05 g/cc and the standard formula for an ellipsoid object. Prostate and seminal vesicle volumes were also computed by contouring T2-weighted 5 mm thick contiguous MR images using a semiautomatic edge detection program and pixel summation. Three-axis volume MRI method versus volume from wet weight has slightly less scatter than TRUS three-axis method (r = 0.85 vs r = 0.81). Contoured MR volume method has the least scatter r = 0.93, statistically better than the linear axis method. Contoured MRI volumetric analysis appears superior to linear MRI or TRUS methods in estimating true prostate volume.