Unequal From the Start? Poverty Across Immigrant Generations of Hispanic Children.

Recent cohorts of U.S. children increasingly consist of immigrants or the immediate descendants of immigrants, a demographic shift that has been implicated in high rates of child poverty. Analyzing data from the 2014-2018 Current Population Survey and using the U.S. Census Bureau's Supplemental Poverty Measure, we describe differences in child poverty rates across immigrant generations and assess how these disparities are rooted in generational differences in the prevalence and impact of key poverty risk factors. Our estimates show that poverty rates among Hispanic children are very high, particularly among first-generation children and second-generation children with two foreign-born parents. Low family employment is the most significant risk factor for poverty, but the prevalence of this risk varies little across immigrant generations. Differences in parental education account for the greatest share of observed intergenerational disparities in child poverty. Supplemental comparisons with third+-generation non-Hispanic White children underscore the disadvantages faced by all Hispanic children, highlighting the continued salience of race and ethnicity within the U.S. stratification system. Understanding the role of immigrant generation vis-à-vis other dimensions of inequality has significant policy implications given that America's population continues to grow more diverse along multiple social axes.

County Reclassifications and Rural-Urban Mortality Disparities in the United States (1970-2018).

Objectives. To demonstrate how inferences about rural-urban disparities in age-adjusted mortality are affected by the reclassification of rural and urban counties in the United States from 1970 to 2018.Methods. We compared estimates of rural-urban mortality disparities over time, produced through a time-varying classification of rural and urban counties, with counterfactual estimates of rural-urban disparities, assuming no changes in rural-urban classification since 1970. We evaluated mortality rates by decade of reclassification to assess selectivity in reclassification.Results. We found that reclassification amplified rural-urban mortality disparities and accounted for more than 25% of the rural disadvantage observed from 1970 to 2018. Mortality rates were lower in counties that reclassified from rural to urban than in counties that remained rural.Conclusions. Estimates of changing rural-urban mortality differentials are significantly influenced by rural-urban reclassification. On average, counties that have remained classified as rural over time have elevated mortality. Longitudinal research on rural-urban health disparities must consider the methodological and substantive implications of reclassification.Public Health Implications. Attention to rural-urban reclassification is necessary when evaluating or justifying policy interventions focusing on geographic health disparities.

Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Changes in fertility patterns are hypothesized to be among the many second-order consequences of armed conflict, but expectations about the direction of such effects are theoretically ambiguous. Prior research, from a range of contexts, has also yielded inconsistent results. We contribute to this debate by using harmonized data and methods to examine the effects of exposure to conflict on preferred and observed fertility outcomes across a spatially and temporally extensive population. We use high-resolution georeferenced data from 25 sub-Saharan African countries, combining records of violent events from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) with data on fertility goals and outcomes from the Demographic and Health Surveys (n = 368,765 women aged 15-49 years). We estimate a series of linear and logistic regression models to assess the effects of exposure to conflict events on ideal family size and the probability of childbearing within the 12 months prior to the interview. We find that, on average, exposure to armed conflict leads to modest reductions in both respondents' preferred family size and their probability of recent childbearing. Many of these effects are heterogeneous between demographic groups and across contexts, which suggests systematic differences in women's vulnerability or preferred responses to armed conflict. Additional analyses suggest that conflict-related fertility declines may be driven by delays or reductions in marriage. These results contribute new evidence about the demographic effects of conflict and their underlying mechanisms, and broadly underline the importance of studying the second-order effects of organized violence on vulnerable populations.

Population Change and Income Inequality in Rural America.

This paper examines the effects of population growth and decline on county-level income inequality in the rural United States from 1980 to 2016. Findings from previous research have shown that population growth is positively associated with income inequality. However, these studies are largely motivated by theories of urbanization and growth in metropolitan areas, and do not explicitly test for differences between the impacts of population growth and decline. Examining the effects of both forms of population change on income inequality is particularly important in rural counties of the United States, the majority of which are experiencing population decline. We analyze county-level data (N=11,320 county-decades) from the U.S. Decennial Census and American Community Survey, applying fixed-effects regression models to estimate the respective effects of population growth and decline on income inequality within rural counties. We find that both forms of population change have significant effects on income inequality relative to stable growth. Population decline is associated with increases in income inequality, while population growth is marginally associated with decreases in inequality. These relationships are consistent across a variety of model specifications, including models that account for counties' employment, sociodemographic, and ethno-racial composition. We also find that the relationship between income inequality and population change varies by counties' geographic region, baseline level of inequality, and baseline population size, suggesting that the links between population change and income inequality are not uniform across rural America.