Influenza Vaccination Implementation in Sri Lanka: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Influenza causes an estimated 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness annually, along with substantial morbidity and mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Currently, Sri Lanka has no influenza vaccination policies and does not offer vaccination within the public healthcare sector. Therefore, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of influenza vaccine implementation for the Sri Lankan population. We designed a static Markov model that followed a population cohort of Sri Lankans in three age groups, 0-4, 5-64, and 65+ years, through two potential scenarios: trivalent inactivated vaccination (TIV) and no TIV across twelve-monthly cycles using a governmental perspective at the national level. We also performed probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses to identify influential variables and account for uncertainty. The vaccination model arm reduced influenza outcomes by 20,710 cases, 438 hospitalizations, and 20 deaths compared to no vaccination in one year. Universal vaccination became cost-effective at approximately 98.01% of Sri Lanka's 2022 GDP per capita (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = 874,890.55 Rs/DALY averted; 3624.84 USD/DALY averted). Results were most sensitive to the vaccine coverage in the 5-64-year-old age group, the cost of the influenza vaccine dose in the 5-64-years-old age group, vaccine effectiveness in the under-5-years-old age group, and the vaccine coverage in the under-5-years-old age group. No value for a variable within our estimated ranges resulted in ICERs above Rs. 1,300,000 (USD 5386.15) per DALY adverted. Providing influenza vaccines was considered highly cost-effective compared to no vaccines. However, large-scale national studies with improved data are needed to better inform estimates and determine the impact of vaccination implementation.

Outcomes among children and adults at risk of severe dengue in Sri Lanka: Opportunity for outpatient case management in countries with high disease burden.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare systems in dengue-endemic countries are often overburdened due to the high number of patients hospitalized according to dengue management guidelines. We systematically evaluated clinical outcomes in a large cohort of patients hospitalized with acute dengue to support triaging of patients to ambulatory versus inpatient management in the future. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: From June 2017- December 2018, we conducted surveillance among children and adults with fever within the prior 7 days who were hospitalized at the largest tertiary-care (1,800 bed) hospital in the Southern Province, Sri Lanka. Patients who developed platelet count ≤100,000/µL (threshold for hospital admission in Sri Lanka) and who met at least two clinical criteria consistent with dengue were eligible for enrollment. We confirmed acute dengue by testing sera collected at enrollment for dengue NS1 antigen or IgM antibodies. We defined primary outcomes as per the 1997 and 2009 World Health Organization (WHO) classification criteria: dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF; WHO 1997), dengue shock syndrome (DSS; WHO 1997), and severe dengue (WHO 2009). Overall, 1064 patients were confirmed as having acute dengue: 318 (17.4%) by NS1 rapid antigen testing and 746 (40.7%) by IgM antibody testing. Of these 1064 patients, 994 (93.4%) were adults ≥18 years and 704 (66.2%) were male. The majority (56, 80%) of children and more than half of adults (544, 54.7%) developed DHF during hospitalization, while 6 (8.6%) children and 22 (2.2%) adults developed DSS. Overall, 10 (14.3%) children and 113 (11.4%) adults developed severe dengue. A total of 2 (0.2%) patients died during hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: One-half of patients hospitalized with acute dengue progressed to develop DHF and a very small number developed DSS or severe dengue. Developing an algorithm for triaging patients to ambulatory versus inpatient management should be the future goal to optimize utilization of healthcare resources in dengue-endemic countries.

Barriers to implementing antimicrobial stewardship programs in three low- and middle-income country tertiary care settings: findings from a multi-site qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance has been named as one of the top ten threats to public health in the world. Hospital-based antimicrobial stewardship programs (ASPs) can help reduce antimicrobial resistance. The purpose of this study was to determine perceived barriers to the development and implementation of ASPs in tertiary care centers in three low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: Interviews were conducted with 45 physicians at tertiary care hospitals in Sri Lanka (n = 22), Kenya (12), and Tanzania (11). Interviews assessed knowledge of antimicrobial resistance and ASPs, current antimicrobial prescribing practices, access to diagnostics that inform antimicrobial use, receptiveness to ASPs, and perceived barriers to implementing ASPs. Two independent reviewers coded the interviews using principles of applied thematic analysis, and comparisons of themes were made across the three sites. RESULTS: Barriers to improving antimicrobial prescribing included prohibitively expensive antimicrobials, limited antimicrobial availability, resistance to changing current practices regarding antimicrobial prescribing, and limited diagnostic capabilities. The most frequent of these barriers in all three locations was limited drug availability. Many physicians in all three sites had not heard of ASPs before the interviews. Improved education was a suggested component of ASPs at all three sites. The creation of guidelines was also recommended, without prompting, by interviewees at all three sites. Although most participants felt microbiological results were helpful in tailoring antibiotic courses, some expressed distrust of laboratory culture results. Biomarkers like erythrocyte sedimentation rate and c-reactive protein were not felt to be specific enough to guide antimicrobial therapy. Despite limited or no prior knowledge of ASPs, most interviewees were receptive to implementing protocols that would include documentation and consultation with ASPs regarding antimicrobial prescribing. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlighted several important barriers to implementing ASPs that were shared between three tertiary care centers in LMICs. Improving drug availability, enhancing availability of and trust in microbiologic data, creating local guidelines, and providing education to physicians regarding antimicrobial prescribing are important steps that could be taken by ASPs in these facilities.

Use of clinical algorithms and rapid influenza testing to manage influenza-like illness: a cost-effectiveness analysis in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory infections are a common reason for antibiotic overuse. We previously showed that providing Sri Lankan clinicians with positive rapid influenza test results was associated with a reduction in antibiotic prescriptions. The economic impact of influenza diagnostic strategies is unknown. METHODS: We estimated the incremental cost per antibiotic prescription avoided with three diagnostic strategies versus standard care when managing Sri Lankan outpatients with influenza-like illness (ILI): (1) influenza clinical prediction tool, (2) targeted rapid influenza testing and (3) universal rapid influenza testing. We compared findings with literature-based estimates of the cost of antimicrobial resistance attributable to each antibiotic prescription. RESULTS: Standard care was less expensive than other strategies across all parameter values in one-way sensitivity analyses. The incremental cost per antibiotic prescription avoided with clinical prediction versus standard care was US$3.0, which was lower than the base-case estimate of the cost of antimicrobial resistance per ILI antibiotic prescription (US$12.5). The incremental cost per antibiotic prescription avoided with targeted testing and universal testing versus standard care were both higher than the base-case cost of antimicrobial resistance per ILI antibiotic prescription: US$49.1 and US$138.3, respectively. To obtain a cost-effectiveness ratio lower than US$12.5 with targeted testing versus standard care, the test price must be

Use of Rapid Influenza Testing to Reduce Antibiotic Prescriptions Among Outpatients with Influenza-Like Illness in Southern Sri Lanka.

Acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) are a common reason for unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions worldwide. Our objective was to determine if providing access to rapid influenza test results could reduce antibiotic prescriptions for ARTIs in a resource-limited setting. We conducted a prospective, pre-post study from March 2013 to October 2014. Outpatients presenting to a hospital in Sri Lanka were surveyed for influenza-like illness-onset of fever ≥ 38.0°C and cough in prior 7 days. Enrolled patients were administered a structured questionnaire, physical examination, and nasal/nasopharyngeal sampling for rapid influenza A/B testing. Influenza test results were released only during phase 2 (January-October 2014). We enrolled 571 patients with ILI-316 in phase 1 and 241 in phase 2. The proportion positive for influenza was 46.5% in phase 1 and 28.6% in phase 2, P < 0.001. Between phases, antibiotic prescriptions decreased from 81.3% to 69.3% (P = 0.001) among all patients and from 83.7% to 62.3% (P = 0.001) among influenza-positive patients. On multivariable analysis, a positive influenza result during phase 2 was associated with lower odds of antibiotic prescriptions (OR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.26-0.95). This prospective study suggests that providing access to rapid influenza testing may reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions in resource-limited settings.