Delay in budget allocation for vaccination and awareness induces chaos in an infectious disease model.

In this paper, we propose a model to assess the impacts of budget allocation for vaccination and awareness programs on the dynamics of infectious diseases. The budget allocation is assumed to follow logistic growth, and its per capita growth rate increases proportional to disease prevalence. An increment in per-capita growth rate of budget allocation due to increase in infected individuals after a threshold value leads to onset of limit cycle oscillations. Our results reveal that the epidemic potential can be reduced or even disease can be eradicated through vaccination of high quality and/or continuous propagation of awareness among the people in endemic zones. We extend the proposed model by incorporating a discrete time delay in the increment of budget allocation due to infected population in the region. We observe that multiple stability switches occur and the system becomes chaotic on gradual increase in the value of time delay.

The impending shortage and cost of training the future plastic surgical workforce.

An expanding US population with increasing demand for aesthetic surgery, growing competition from other specialties, a constant rate of retiring plastic surgeons, and a static number of residents places increasing demands on the plastic surgical workforce in the coming years. Without certain changes, the plastic surgical workforce will be unable to meet their demand, and other specialties will increasingly encroach on aesthetic and reconstructive procedures. Given Census Bureau predictions for the US population, the numbers of residents allotted by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, The American Board of Plastic Surgery data on the current plastic surgical workforce, and using a population-based analysis to predict future shortages in plastic surgery residents, the workforce shortage can be estimated as 800 residents in 2020 and up to 3223 residents in 2050. Based on previously reported figures, the additional cost in training these residents by 2050 is more than $1.5 billion.