Detection of fossil-fuel CO2 plummet in China due to COVID-19 by observation at Hateruma.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused drastic reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, but due to its large atmospheric reservoir and long lifetime, no detectable signal has been observed in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate. Using the variabilities in CO2 (ΔCO2) and methane (ΔCH4) observed at Hateruma Island, Japan during 1997-2020, we show a traceable CO2 emission reduction in China during February-March 2020. The monitoring station at Hateruma Island observes the outflow of Chinese emissions during winter and spring. A systematic increase in the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratio, governed by synoptic wind variability, well corroborated the increase in China's fossil-fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions during 1997-2019. However, the ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios showed significant decreases of 29 ± 11 and 16 ± 11 mol mol-1 in February and March 2020, respectively, relative to the 2011-2019 average of 131 ± 11 mol mol-1. By projecting these observed ΔCO2/ΔCH4 ratios on transport model simulations, we estimated reductions of 32 ± 12% and 19 ± 15% in the FFCO2 emissions in China for February and March 2020, respectively, compared to the expected emissions. Our data are consistent with the abrupt decrease in the economic activity in February, a slight recovery in March, and return to normal in April, which was calculated based on the COVID-19 lockdowns and mobility restriction datasets.

Methane budget of East Asia, 1990-2015: A bottom-up evaluation.

The regional budget of methane (CH4) emissions for East Asia, a crucial region in the global greenhouse gas budget, was quantified for 1990-2015 with a bottom-up method based on inventories and emission model simulations. Anthropogenic emissions associated with fossil fuel extraction, industrial activities, waste management, and agricultural activities were derived from the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research version 4.3.2 and compared with other inventories. Emissions from natural wetlands and CH4 uptake by upland soil oxidation were estimated using the Vegetation Integrative SImulator for Trace gases (VISIT), a biogeochemical model that considers historical land use and climatic conditions. Emissions from biomass burning and termites were calculated using satellite and land-use data combined with empirical emission factors. The resulting average annual estimated CH4 budget for 2000-2012 indicated that East Asia was a net source of 67.3 Tg CH4 yr-1, of which 88.8% was associated with anthropogenic emissions. The uncertainty (±standard deviation) of this estimate, ±14 Tg CH4 yr-1, stemmed from data and model inconsistencies. The increase of the net flux from 60.2 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 1990 to 78.0 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2012 was due mainly to increased emissions by the fossil fuel extraction and livestock sectors. Our results showed that CH4 was a crucial component of the regional greenhouse gas budget. A spatial analysis using 0.25°â€¯× 0.25° grid cells revealed emission hotspots in urban areas, agricultural areas, and wetlands. These hotspots were surrounded by weak sinks in upland areas. The estimated natural and anthropogenic emissions fell within the range of independent estimates, including top-down estimates from atmospheric inversion models. Such a regional accounting is an effective way to elucidate climatic forcings and to develop mitigation policies. Further studies, however, are required to reduce the uncertainties in the budget.