Incorporating polygenic risk into the Leicester Risk Assessment score for 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: We evaluated whether incorporating information on ethnic background and polygenic risk enhanced the Leicester Risk Assessment (LRA) score for predicting 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The sample included 202,529 UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 years. We computed the LRA score, and developed two new risk scores using training data (80% sample): LRArev, which incorporated additional information on ethnic background, and LRAprs, which incorporated polygenic risk for type 2 diabetes. We assessed discriminative and reclassification performance in a test set (20% sample). Type 2 diabetes was ascertained using primary care, hospital inpatient and death registry records. RESULTS: Over 10 years, 7,476 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The Harrell's C indexes were 0.796 (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 0.785, 0.806), 0.802 (95% CI 0.792, 0.813), and 0.829 (95% CI 0.820, 0.839) for the LRA, LRArev and LRAprs scores, respectively. The LRAprs score significantly improved the overall reclassification compared to the LRA (net reclassification index [NRI] = 0.033, 95% CI 0.015, 0.049) and LRArev (NRI = 0.040, 95% CI 0.024, 0.055) scores. CONCLUSIONS: Polygenic risk moderately improved the performance of the existing LRA score for 10-year risk prediction of type 2 diabetes.

Educational and social inequalities and cause-specific mortality in Mexico City: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Social inequalities in adult mortality have been reported across diverse populations, but there is no large-scale prospective evidence from Mexico. We aimed to quantify social, including educational, inequalities in mortality among adults in Mexico City. METHODS: The Mexico City Prospective Study recruited 150 000 adults aged 35 years and older from two districts of Mexico City between 1998 and 2004. Participants were followed up until Jan 1, 2021 for cause-specific mortality. Cox regression analysis yielded rate ratios (RRs) for death at ages 35-74 years associated with education and examined, in exploratory analyses, the mediating effects of lifestyle and related risk factors. FINDINGS: Among 143 478 participants aged 35-74 years, there was a strong inverse association of education with premature death. Compared with participants with tertiary education, after adjustment for age and sex, those with no education had about twice the mortality rate (RR 1·84; 95% CI 1·71-1·98), equivalent to approximately 6 years lower life expectancy, with an RR of 1·78 (1·67-1·90) among participants with incomplete primary, 1·62 (1·53-1·72) with complete primary, and 1·34 (1·25-1·42) with secondary education. Education was most strongly associated with death from renal disease and acute diabetic crises (RR 3·65; 95% CI 3·05-4·38 for no education vs tertiary education) and from infectious diseases (2·67; 2·00-3·56), but there was an apparent higher rate of death from all specific causes studied with lower education, with the exception of cancer for which there was little association. Lifestyle factors (ie, smoking, alcohol drinking, and leisure time physical activity) and related physiological correlates (ie, adiposity, diabetes, and blood pressure) accounted for about four-fifths of the association of education with premature mortality. INTERPRETATION: In this Mexican population there were marked educational inequalities in premature adult mortality, which appeared to largely be accounted for by lifestyle and related risk factors. Effective interventions to reduce these risk factors could reduce inequalities and have a major impact on premature mortality. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, the Mexican Health Ministry, the National Council of Science and Technology for Mexico, Cancer Research UK, British Heart Foundation, and the UK Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit.

Effectiveness of school food environment policies on children's dietary behaviors: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: School food environment policies may be a critical tool to promote healthy diets in children, yet their effectiveness remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review and quantify the impact of school food environment policies on dietary habits, adiposity, and metabolic risk in children. METHODS: We systematically searched online databases for randomized or quasi-experimental interventions assessing effects of school food environment policies on children's dietary habits, adiposity, or metabolic risk factors. Data were extracted independently and in duplicate, and pooled using inverse-variance random-effects meta-analysis. Habitual (within+outside school) dietary intakes were the primary outcome. Heterogeneity was explored using meta-regression and subgroup analysis. Funnel plots, Begg's and Egger's test evaluated potential publication bias. RESULTS: From 6,636 abstracts, 91 interventions (55 in US/Canada, 36 in Europe/New Zealand) were included, on direct provision of healthful foods/beverages (N = 39 studies), competitive food/beverage standards (N = 29), and school meal standards (N = 39) (some interventions assessed multiple policies). Direct provision policies, which largely targeted fruits and vegetables, increased consumption of fruits by 0.27 servings/d (n = 15 estimates (95%CI: 0.17, 0.36)) and combined fruits and vegetables by 0.28 servings/d (n = 16 (0.17, 0.40)); with a slight impact on vegetables (n = 11; 0.04 (0.01, 0.08)), and no effects on total calories (n = 6; -56 kcal/d (-174, 62)). In interventions targeting water, habitual intake was unchanged (n = 3; 0.33 glasses/d (-0.27, 0.93)). Competitive food/beverage standards reduced sugar-sweetened beverage intake by 0.18 servings/d (n = 3 (-0.31, -0.05)); and unhealthy snacks by 0.17 servings/d (n = 2 (-0.22, -0.13)), without effects on total calories (n = 5; -79 kcal/d (-179, 21)). School meal standards (mainly lunch) increased fruit intake (n = 2; 0.76 servings/d (0.37, 1.16)) and reduced total fat (-1.49%energy; n = 6 (-2.42, -0.57)), saturated fat (n = 4; -0.93%energy (-1.15, -0.70)) and sodium (n = 4; -170 mg/d (-242, -98)); but not total calories (n = 8; -38 kcal/d (-137, 62)). In 17 studies evaluating adiposity, significant decreases were generally not identified; few studies assessed metabolic factors (blood lipids/glucose/pressure), with mixed findings. Significant sources of heterogeneity or publication bias were not identified. CONCLUSIONS: Specific school food environment policies can improve targeted dietary behaviors; effects on adiposity and metabolic risk require further investigation. These findings inform ongoing policy discussions and debates on best practices to improve childhood dietary habits and health.