Cost Effectiveness of the Baveno VI Criteria Compared With Endoscopy for High-Risk Varices in Patients With Child-Pugh A Cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Although upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (EGD) remains the gold standard for detecting varices in cirrhosis, the Baveno VI criteria proposed a combination of transient elastography and platelet count that could rule out high-risk varices, therefore sparing the need for an endoscopy, with significant potential cost savings. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in the diagnosis of high-risk varices in cirrhosis. METHODS: We built an analytical decision model to estimate the cost and benefits of using the Baveno VI criteria compared with EGD in patients with Child-Pugh A cirrhosis. The analysis was performed from the UK National Health Service perspective, over 1, 5, and 20 years. A Markov model was populated with data from published evidence. Outcomes were measured in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and avoided deaths. The analyses were repeated for Canada and Spain, using relevant cost inputs. RESULTS: The Baveno VI criteria were cost effective compared with endoscopy in all analyses. For 1000 patients, they produced 0.16 additional QALYs at an incremental cost of £326 ($443.41) over 5 years, resulting in an incremental cost of £2081 ($2830) per additional QALY gained. The incremental net monetary benefit of Baveno VI compared with EGD was £2808 ($3819) over 5 years per patient. Baveno VI criteria also were cost effective in Canada and Spain. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis supported these findings. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that the Baveno VI criteria are cost effective, suggesting that they should be considered for widespread implementation on the basis of safety, appropriateness, and economic grounds.

Development and validation of the Gender-Equity Model for Liver Allocation (GEMA) to prioritise candidates for liver transplantation: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and its sodium-corrected variant (MELD-Na) have created gender disparities in accessing liver transplantation. We aimed to derive and validate the Gender-Equity Model for liver Allocation (GEMA) and its sodium-corrected variant (GEMA-Na) to amend such inequities. METHODS: In this cohort study, the GEMA models were derived by replacing creatinine with the Royal Free Hospital glomerular filtration rate (RFH-GFR) within the MELD and MELD-Na formulas, with re-fitting and re-weighting of each component. The new models were trained and internally validated in adults listed for liver transplantation in the UK (2010-20; UK Transplant Registry) using generalised additive multivariable Cox regression, and externally validated in an Australian cohort (1998-2020; Royal Prince Alfred Hospital [Australian National Liver Transplant Unit] and Austin Hospital [Victorian Liver Transplant Unit]). The study comprised 9320 patients: 5762 patients for model training, 1920 patients for internal validation, and 1638 patients for external validation. The primary outcome was mortality or delisting due to clinical deterioration within the first 90 days from listing. Discrimination was assessed by Harrell's concordance statistic. FINDINGS: 449 (5·8%) of 7682 patients in the UK cohort and 87 (5·3%) of 1638 patients in the Australian cohort died or were delisted because of clinical deterioration within 90 days. GEMA showed improved discrimination in predicting mortality or delisting due to clinical deterioration within the first 90 days after waiting list inclusion compared with MELD (Harrell's concordance statistic 0·752 [95% CI 0·700-0·804] vs 0·712 [0·656-0·769]; p=0·001 in the internal validation group and 0·761 [0·703-0·819] vs 0·739 [0·682-0·796]; p=0·036 in the external validation group), and GEMA-Na showed improved discrimination compared with MELD-Na (0·766 [0·715-0·818] vs 0·742 [0·686-0·797]; p=0·0058 in the internal validation group and 0·774 [0·720-0·827] vs 0·745 [0·690-0·800]; p=0·014 in the external validation group). The discrimination capacity of GEMA-Na was higher in women than in the overall population, both in the internal (0·802 [0·716-0·888]) and external validation cohorts (0·796 [0·698-0·895]). In the pooled validation cohorts, GEMA resulted in a score change of at least 2 points compared with MELD in 1878 (52·8%) of 3558 patients (25·0% upgraded and 27·8% downgraded). GEMA-Na resulted in a score change of at least 2 points compared with MELD-Na in 1836 (51·6%) of 3558 patients (32·3% upgraded and 19·3% downgraded). In the whole cohort, 3725 patients received a transplant within 90 days of being listed. Of these patients, 586 (15·7%) would have been differently prioritised by GEMA compared with MELD; 468 (12·6%) patients would have been differently prioritised by GEMA-Na compared with MELD-Na. One in 15 deaths could potentially be avoided by using GEMA instead of MELD and one in 21 deaths could potentially be avoided by using GEMA-Na instead of MELD-Na. INTERPRETATION: GEMA and GEMA-Na showed improved discrimination and a significant re-classification benefit compared with existing scores, with consistent results in an external validation cohort. Their implementation could save a clinically meaningful number of lives, particularly among women, and could amend current gender inequities in accessing liver transplantation. FUNDING: Junta de Andalucía and EDRF.

LiverScreen project: study protocol for screening for liver fibrosis in the general population in European countries.

BACKGROUND: The development of liver cirrhosis is usually an asymptomatic process until late stages when complications occur. The potential reversibility of the disease is dependent on early diagnosis of liver fibrosis and timely targeted treatment. Recently, the use of non-invasive tools has been suggested for screening of liver fibrosis, especially in subjects with risk factors for chronic liver disease. Nevertheless, large population-based studies with cost-effectiveness analyses are still lacking to support the widespread use of such tools. The aim of this study is to investigate whether non-invasive liver stiffness measurement in the general population is useful to identify subjects with asymptomatic, advanced chronic liver disease. METHODS: This study aims to include 30,000 subjects from eight European countries. Subjects from the general population aged ≥ 40 years without known liver disease will be invited to participate in the study either through phone calls/letters or through their primary care center. In the first study visit, subjects will undergo bloodwork as well as hepatic fat quantification and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography. If LSM is ≥ 8 kPa and/or if ALT levels are ≥1.5 x upper limit of normal, subjects will be referred to hospital for further evaluation and consideration of liver biopsy. The primary outcome is the percentage of subjects with LSM ≥ 8kPa. In addition, a health economic evaluation will be performed to assess the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of such an intervention. The project is funded by the European Commission H2020 program. DISCUSSION: This study comes at an especially important time, as the burden of chronic liver diseases is expected to increase in the coming years. There is consequently an urgent need to change our current approach, from diagnosing the disease late when the impact of interventions may be limited to diagnosing the disease earlier, when the patient is asymptomatic and free of complications, and the disease potentially reversible. Ultimately, the LiverScreen study will serve as a basis from which diagnostic pathways can be developed and adapted to the specific socio-economic and healthcare conditions in each country. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study is registered on Clinicaltrials.gov ( NCT03789825 ).

A sustainable development goal framework to guide multisectoral action on NAFLD through a societal approach.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a highly prevalent condition that requires a comprehensive and coordinated response across sectors and disciplines. AIMS: In the absence of a multisectoral framework to tackle this condition, we developed one using the sustainable development goals (SDGs) as the basis for converging thinking about the design and delivery of public health responses. METHODS: A multidisciplinary group identified the SDG targets and indicators for inclusion in the new framework through a two-stage process. Firstly, a core team of three researchers independently reviewed the 169 targets and 231 indicators of the SDGs to select a shortlist. Over two Delphi rounds, a multidisciplinary group of 12 experts selected which of the shortlisted targets and indicators to include. Respondents also provided written feedback on their selection. Targets and indicators with 75% or greater agreement were included in the final framework. RESULTS: The final framework comprises 16 targets-representing 9% of all targets and 62% (16/26) of the shortlisted targets-and seven indicators, accounting for 50% (7/14) of the shortlisted indicators and 3% of all indicators. The selected targets and indicators cover a broad range of factors, from health, food and nutrition to education, the economy, and the built environment. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing the challenge of NAFLD will require a re-envisioning of the liver health landscape, with greater focus on joined-up systems thinking and action. This new framework can help guide this process, including by outlining the stakeholders with whom the liver health community needs to engage.

Population screening for liver fibrosis: Toward early diagnosis and intervention for chronic liver diseases.

Cirrhosis, highly prevalent worldwide, develops after years of hepatic inflammation triggering progressive fibrosis. Currently, the main etiologies of cirrhosis are non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and alcohol-related liver disease, although chronic hepatitis B and C infections are still major etiological factors in some areas of the world. Recent studies have shown that liver fibrosis can be assessed with relatively high accuracy noninvasively by serological tests, transient elastography, and radiological methods. These modalities may be utilized for screening for liver fibrosis in at-risk populations. Thus far, a limited number of population-based studies using noninvasive tests in different areas of the world indicate that a significant percentage of subjects without known liver disease (around 5% in general populations and a higher rate -18% to 27%-in populations with risk factors for liver disease) have significant undetected liver fibrosis or established cirrhosis. Larger international studies are required to show the harms and benefits before concluding that screening for liver fibrosis should be applied to populations at risk for chronic liver diseases. Screening for liver fibrosis has the potential for changing the current approach from diagnosing chronic liver diseases late when patients have already developed complications of cirrhosis to diagnosing liver fibrosis in asymptomatic subjects providing the opportunity of preventing disease progression.

Defining comprehensive models of care for NAFLD.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is now the leading cause of chronic liver disease globally. Despite the increased demand placed on health-care systems, little attention has been given to the design and implementation of efficient and effective models of care for patients with NAFLD. In many health-care settings, no formal pathways exist and, where pathways are in place, they are often not standardized according to good practices. We systematically searched the peer-reviewed literature with the aim of identifying published examples of comprehensive models of care that answered four key questions: what services are provided? Where are they provided? Who is offering them? How are they coordinated and integrated within health-care systems? We identified seven models of care and synthesized the findings into eight recommendations nested within the 'what, where, who and how' of care models. These recommendations, aimed at policy-makers and practitioners designing and implementing models of care, can help to address the increasing need for the provision of good practice care for patients with NAFLD.

Defining the Minimum Acceptable Diagnostic Accuracy of Noninvasive Fibrosis Testing in Cirrhosis: A Decision Analytic Modeling Study.

No studies explore the clinical consequences of using noninvasive tests (NITs) compared to liver biopsy (LB) in diagnosing cirrhosis. Our aim was to combine two decision analytic models to determine the minimum diagnostic accuracy criteria for NITs to diagnose cirrhosis with equivalence to LB in terms of mortality. We further evaluated selected existing NITs used alone and sequentially. A decision tree was constructed with associated 2-year mortality incorporating an LB or NIT strategy to diagnose cirrhosis in a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 asymptomatic patients. Cirrhosis prevalence was modeled at 5%, 20%, and 50%. Decision curve analyses were performed, expressing the net benefit of tests over a range of threshold probabilities (Pt ). The NIT deriving from the two models that could diagnose cirrhosis with at least equal mortality to LB was termed "mNIT." Existing NITs were then compared using both decision models. The combined mNIT minimum sensitivity and specificity to diagnose cirrhosis with equivalence to LB at 5%, 20% and 50% cirrhosis prevalence were; 89% and 88%, 94% and 85%, and 94% and 87%, respectively at Pt  = 0.20. Sequential NITs performed better than single NITs at any prevalence. Combining both decision models, FibroTest plus vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) and VCTE alone were the only existing NITs that were better than or equal to LB at diagnosing cirrhosis at 5% prevalence. At 20% and 50% prevalence, only FibroTest high specificity cutoff plus VCTE was equivalent to or better than LB. Conclusion: Decision analytic models were used to determine the minimum acceptable diagnostic accuracy of NITs for diagnosing cirrhosis; we recommend that such models should be used as the standard in evaluating the diagnostic performance of NITs.

Referral pathways for patients with NAFLD based on non-invasive fibrosis tests: Diagnostic accuracy and cost analysis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Non-invasive fibrosis tests (NITs) can be used to triage non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) patients at risk of advanced fibrosis (AF). We modelled and investigated the diagnostic accuracy and costs of a two-tier NIT approach in primary care (PC) to inform secondary care referrals (SCRs). METHODS: A hypothetical cohort of 1,000 NAFLD patients with a 5% prevalence of AF was examined. Three referral strategies were modelled: refer all patients (Scenario 1), refer only patients with AF on NITs performed in PC (Scenario 2) and refer those with AF after biopsy (Scenario 3). Patients in Scenarios 1 and 2 would undergo sequential NITs if their initial NIT was indeterminate (FIB-4 followed by Fibroscan®, enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF)® or FibroTest®). The outcomes considered were true/false positives and true/false negatives with associated mortality, complications, treatment and follow-up depending on the care setting. Decision curve analysis was performed, which expressed the net benefit of different scenarios over a range of threshold probabilities (Pt). RESULTS: Sequential use of NITs provided lower SCR rates and greater cost savings compared to other scenarios over 5 years, with 90% of patients managed in PC and cost savings of over 40%. On decision curve analysis, FIB-4 plus ELF was marginally superior to FIB-4 plus Fibroscan at Pt ≥8% (1/12.5 referrals). Below this Pt, FIB-4 plus Fibroscan had greater net benefit. The net reduction in SCRs was similar for both sequential combinations. CONCLUSIONS: The sequential use of NITs in PC is an effective way to rationalize SCRs and is associated with significant cost savings.

Comparison and correlation of fibrosis stage assessment by collagen proportionate area (CPA) and the ELF panel in patients with chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: Fibrosis progression is the common consequence of most chronic liver diseases. AIMS: To evaluate the performance of Collagen Proportionate Area (CPA) and ELF using Ishak's score in patients with chronic liver diseases. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of medical data from patients on whom a liver biopsy was performed as part of the diagnostic assessment. CPA was calculated by using digital image analysis and then compared with Ishak and ELF scores. RESULTS: 143 patients (84 men (59%); mean age 48.8 ±â€¯12.8 years) were evaluated. Patients were mainly affected by viral hepatitis (92 HCV and 8 HBV). CPA and ELF values increased with worsening Ishak stage (P < 0.001) and their median values were significantly different among Ishak stages (P < 0.001). There was a significant correlation between CPA and ELF (r = 0.5). In AUROC analysis, CPA and ELF had similar diagnostic accuracy in identifying cirrhosis, but CPA had higher diagnostic accuracy than ELF in identifying significant or absent fibrosis. High ELF scores were observed in non-cirrhotic patients who suffered non-liver related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that CPA and ELF values successfully identified patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, thus confirming the role of ELF as a clinical method for non-invasive assessment of fibrosis stage in chronic hepatitis.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the interface between primary and secondary care.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has a prevalence of 25-30% in unselected populations and has become the main reason for referrals to hepatology services. From the perspective of liver disease, NAFLD has a high prevalence but low severity. Screening studies in people at risk for NAFLD have shown a prevalence of advanced fibrosis of 5%, which underlines the need for robust pathways for risk stratification in primary care, with subsequent referrals as required. In this Review, we discuss the interface between primary and secondary care with regards to risk stratification and management of patients with NAFLD. We focus on selected issues of epidemiology and natural history and discuss the burden of disease in primary care, the evidence on screening for NAFLD, the rationale for testing for advanced fibrosis, and the optimal management of the disease in primary care.

Elastography methods for the non-invasive assessment of portal hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: The gold standard to assess the presence and severity of portal hypertension remains the hepatic vein pressure gradient, however the recent development of non-invasive assessment using elastography techniques offers valuable alternatives. In this review, we discuss the diagnostic accuracy and utility of such techniques in patients with portal hypertension due to cirrhosis. Areas covered: A literature search focused on liver and spleen stiffness measurement with different elastographic techniques for the assessment of the presence and severity of portal hypertension and oesophageal varices in people with chronic liver disease. The combination of elastography with parameters such as platelet count and spleen size is also discussed. Expert commentary: Non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension is a validated tool for the diagnosis and follow-up of patients. Baveno VI recommended the combination of transient elastography and platelet count for ruling out varices needing treatment in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. Assessment of aetiology specific cut-offs for ruling in and ruling out clinically significant portal hypertension is an unmet clinical need. The incorporation of spleen stiffness measurements in non-invasive algorithms using validated software and improved measuring scales might enhance the non-invasive diagnosis of portal hypertension in the next 5 years.

Fibrosis assessment in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection.

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a major cause of liver morbidity and mortality worldwide. While a proportion of the 250 million individuals chronically infected with HBV will not come to significant harm or require therapy, many others risk developing complications of the end-stage liver disease such as decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), without intervention. Due to the complex natural history of HBV infection, patients require an expert assessment to interpret biochemistry, viral serology and appropriately stage the disease, and to initiate monitoring and/or therapy where indicated. The detection and quantification of liver fibrosis is a key factor for disease management and prognostication for an individual with HBV. The reliance on invasive liver biopsy to stage disease is diminishing with the advent of robust non-invasive blood- and imaging-based algorithms which can reliably stage disease in many cases. These tests are now incorporated into International guidelines for HBV management and relied upon daily to inform clinical judgement. Both blood- and imaging-based approaches have advantages over liver biopsy, including minimal risks, lower cost, better patient acceptance and speed of results, while disadvantages include lower diagnostic accuracy in intermediate disease stages and variability with co-existing hepatic inflammation or steatosis. This review outlines the methods of fibrosis assessment in chronic HBV infection and focuses on the most commonly used blood- and imaging-based non-invasive tests, reviewing their diagnostic performance and applicability to patient care.

Non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis in patients with alcoholic liver disease.

Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) consists of a broad spectrum of disorders, ranging from simple steatosis to alcoholic steatohepatitis and cirrhosis. Fatty liver develops in more than 90% of heavy drinkers, however only 30%-35% of them develop more advanced forms of ALD. Therefore, even if the current "gold standard" for the assessment of the stage of alcohol-related liver injury is histology, liver biopsy is not reasonable in all patients who present with ALD. Currently, although several non-invasive fibrosis markers have been suggested as alternatives to liver biopsy in patients with ALD, none has been sufficiently validated. As described in other liver disease, the diagnostic accuracy of such tests in ALD is acceptable for the diagnosis of significant fibrosis or cirrhosis but not for lesser fibrosis stages. Existing data suggest that the use of non-invasive tests could be tailored to first tier screening of patients at risk, in order to diagnose early patients with progressive liver disease and offer targeted interventions for the prevention of decompensation. We review these tests and critically appraise the existing evidence.

Noninvasive Assessment of Fibrosis in Patients with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is prevalent in 20-25% of the general population and is associated with metabolic risk factors such as obesity, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia. Histologically, NAFLD ranges from simple steatosis to nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), fibrosis, and cirrhosis. As NASH develops in only 10-15% of patients with NAFLD, it is not practical to biopsy all patients who present with NAFLD. Noninvasive fibrosis tests have been extensively developed recently and offer alternatives for staging fibrosis. Despite their increasing use, such tests cannot adequately differentiate simple steatosis from NASH. At present, such tests can be used as first line tests to rule out patients without advanced fibrosis and thus prevent unnecessary secondary care referrals in a significant number of patients. In this review we present the evidence for the use of noninvasive fibrosis tests in patients with NAFLD.

Cost-effectiveness of non-invasive methods for assessment and monitoring of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic liver disease: systematic review and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Liver biopsy is the reference standard for diagnosing the extent of fibrosis in chronic liver disease; however, it is invasive, with the potential for serious complications. Alternatives to biopsy include non-invasive liver tests (NILTs); however, the cost-effectiveness of these needs to be established. OBJECTIVE: To assess the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of NILTs in patients with chronic liver disease. DATA SOURCES: We searched various databases from 1998 to April 2012, recent conference proceedings and reference lists. METHODS: We included studies that assessed the diagnostic accuracy of NILTs using liver biopsy as the reference standard. Diagnostic studies were assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS-2) tool. Meta-analysis was conducted using the bivariate random-effects model with correlation between sensitivity and specificity (whenever possible). Decision models were used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the NILTs. Expected costs were estimated using a NHS perspective and health outcomes were measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Markov models were developed to estimate long-term costs and QALYs following testing, and antiviral treatment where indicated, for chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and chronic hepatitis C (HCV). NILTs were compared with each other, sequential testing strategies, biopsy and strategies including no testing. For alcoholic liver disease (ALD), we assessed the cost-effectiveness of NILTs in the context of potentially increasing abstinence from alcohol. Owing to a lack of data and treatments specifically for fibrosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), the analysis was limited to an incremental cost per correct diagnosis. An analysis of NILTs to identify patients with cirrhosis for increased monitoring was also conducted. RESULTS: Given a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY, treating everyone with HCV without prior testing was cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9204. This was robust in most sensitivity analyses but sensitive to the extent of treatment benefit for patients with mild fibrosis. For HBV [hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-negative)] this strategy had an ICER of £28,137, which was cost-effective only if the upper bound of the standard UK cost-effectiveness threshold range (£30,000) is acceptable. For HBeAg-positive disease, two NILTs applied sequentially (hyaluronic acid and magnetic resonance elastography) were cost-effective at a £20,000 threshold (ICER: £19,612); however, the results were highly uncertain, with several test strategies having similar expected outcomes and costs. For patients with ALD, liver biopsy was the cost-effective strategy, with an ICER of £822. LIMITATIONS: A substantial number of tests had only one study from which diagnostic accuracy was derived; therefore, there is a high risk of bias. Most NILTs did not have validated cut-offs for diagnosis of specific fibrosis stages. The findings of the ALD model were dependent on assuptions about abstinence rates assumptions and the modelling approach for NAFLD was hindered by the lack of evidence on clinically effective treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Treating everyone without NILTs is cost-effective for patients with HCV, but only for HBeAg-negative if the higher cost-effectiveness threshold is appropriate. For HBeAg-positive, two NILTs applied sequentially were cost-effective but highly uncertain. Further evidence for treatment effectiveness is required for ALD and NAFLD. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42011001561. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Cost-effectiveness of noninvasive liver fibrosis tests for treatment decisions in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

UNLABELLED: The cost-effectiveness of noninvasive tests (NITs) as alternatives to liver biopsy is unknown. We compared the cost-effectiveness of using NITs to inform treatment decisions in adult patients with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to calculate the diagnostic accuracy of various NITs using a bivariate random-effects model. We constructed a probabilistic decision analytical model to estimate health care costs and outcomes (quality-adjusted life-years; QALYs) using data from the meta-analysis, literature, and national UK data. We compared the cost-effectiveness of four treatment strategies: testing with NITs and treating patients with fibrosis stage≥F2; testing with liver biopsy and treating patients with ≥F2; treat none; and treat all irrespective of fibrosis. We compared all NITs and tested the cost-effectiveness using current triple therapy with boceprevir or telaprevir, but also modeled new, more-potent antivirals. Treating all patients without any previous NIT was the most effective strategy and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £9,204 per additional QALY gained. The exploratory analysis of currently licensed sofosbuvir treatment regimens found that treat all was cost-effective, compared to using an NIT to decide on treatment, with an ICER of £16,028 per QALY gained. The exploratory analysis to assess the possible effect on results of new treatments, found that if SVR rates increased to >90% for genotypes 1-4, the incremental treatment cost threshold for the "treat all" strategy to remain the most cost-effective strategy would be £37,500. Above this threshold, the most cost-effective option would be noninvasive testing with magnetic resonance elastography (ICER=£9,189). CONCLUSIONS: Treating all adult patients with CHC, irrespective of fibrosis stage, is the most cost-effective strategy with currently available drugs in developed countries.

New therapeutic paradigm for patients with cirrhosis.

Cirrhosis is a major health problem, being the 5th cause of death in the U.K. and 12th in the U.S., but 4th in the 45 to 54 age group. Until recently cirrhosis was considered a single and terminal disease stage, with an inevitably poor prognosis. However, it is now clear that 1-year mortality can range from 1% in early cirrhosis to 57% in decompensated disease. As the only treatment for advanced cirrhosis is liver transplantation, what is urgently needed is strategies to prevent transition to decompensated stages. The evidence we present in this review clearly demonstrates that management of patients with cirrhosis should change from an expectant algorithm that treats complications as they occur, to preventing the advent of all complications while in the compensated phase. This requires maintaining patients in an asymptomatic phase and not significantly affecting their quality of life with minimal impairment due to the therapies themselves. This could be achieved with lifestyle changes and combinations of already licensed and low-cost drugs, similar to the paradigm of treating risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The drugs are propranolol, simvastatin, norfloxacin, and warfarin, which in combination would cost £128/patient annually-equivalent to U.S. $196/year. This treatment strategy requires randomized controlled trials to establish improvements in outcomes. In the 21st century, cirrhosis should be regarded as a potentially treatable disease with currently available and inexpensive therapies.