Cost effectiveness of preemptive school closures to mitigate pandemic influenza outbreaks of differing severity in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may be considered as part of national pandemic preparedness as a first line defense against influenza pandemics. Preemptive school closures (PSCs) are an NPI reserved for severe pandemics and are highly effective in slowing influenza spread but have unintended consequences. METHODS: We used results of simulated PSC impacts for a 1957-like pandemic (i.e., an influenza pandemic with a high case fatality rate) to estimate population health impacts and quantify PSC costs at the national level using three geographical scales, four closure durations, and three dismissal decision criteria (i.e., the number of cases detected to trigger closures). At the Chicago regional level, we also used results from simulated 1957-like, 1968-like, and 2009-like pandemics. Our net estimated economic impacts resulted from educational productivity costs plus loss of income associated with providing childcare during closures after netting out productivity gains from averted influenza illness based on the number of cases and deaths for each mitigation strategy. RESULTS: For the 1957-like, national-level model, estimated net PSC costs and averted cases ranged from $7.5 billion (2016 USD) averting 14.5 million cases for two-week, community-level closures to $97 billion averting 47 million cases for 12-week, county-level closures. We found that 2-week school-by-school PSCs had the lowest cost per discounted life-year gained compared to county-wide or school district-wide closures for both the national and Chicago regional-level analyses of all pandemics. The feasibility of spatiotemporally precise triggering is questionable for most locales. Theoretically, this would be an attractive early option to allow more time to assess transmissibility and severity of a novel influenza virus. However, we also found that county-wide PSCs of longer durations (8 to 12 weeks) could avert the most cases (31-47 million) and deaths (105,000-156,000); however, the net cost would be considerably greater ($88-$103 billion net of averted illness costs) for the national-level, 1957-like analysis. CONCLUSIONS: We found that the net costs per death averted ($180,000-$4.2 million) for the national-level, 1957-like scenarios were generally less than the range of values recommended for regulatory impact analyses ($4.6 to 15.0 million). This suggests that the economic benefits of national-level PSC strategies could exceed the costs of these interventions during future pandemics with highly transmissible strains with high case fatality rates. In contrast, the PSC outcomes for regional models of the 1968-like and 2009-like pandemics were less likely to be cost effective; more targeted and shorter duration closures would be recommended for these pandemics.

Assessment and comparison of the ILI case definition in clinical and school-based community settings: ORCHARDS/IISP.

Context: Influenza-like illness (ILI) is commonly used in clinical and public health settings to identify influenza cases. CDC defines ILI as fever and either cough or sore throat, with symptom onset within 7 days. Objective: Assess performance of ILI criteria in two settings (clinical and community), comparing symptom profiles and laboratory detection of influenza in children. Study Design and Analysis: Retrospective analyses of data from medically attended influenza (MAI) surveillance and a communitybased study. Datasets were analyzed separately to assess predictors of influenza cases. Analyses were limited to specimens collected within 7 days of symptom onset. Relationships between influenza and each categorical variable were described by the confusion matrix, sensitivity, and specificity. Associations were tested using chi-square tests. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression models were used for all variables with RT-PCR result as the outcome. Setting or Dataset: The ORegon CHild Absenteeism due to Respiratory Disease Study (ORCHARDS) is a respiratory infection study based in the Oregon School District (Dane County, WI). The Wisconsin Influenza Incidence Surveillance Project (IISP) is a MAI surveillance system operating in five family medicine clinics in Dane County. Population Studied: Children aged 4-18 years with acute respiratory infections. Intervention/Instrument: Oropharyngeal specimens, collected by research staff (ORCHARDS) or clinicians (IISP), were tested for influenza via RT-PCR and for multiple respiratory viruses at the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene. Extensive demographic and symptoms data were collected from all participants. Outcome Measures: Influenza(+)PCR. Results: From 9/7/2010-3/12/2020, 1,338 and 2,359 specimens meeting inclusion criteria were collected for IISP and ORCHARDS, respectively. Cough, fever, and ILI classification were significantly associated with influenza (sensitivity ≥92.8%, ≥85.9%, and ≥84.5%, respectively). Receiver operator curve analysis confirmed ILI had high predictive ability in both settings, improved by the inclusion of seasonality and influenza vaccination status (IISP: 0.61 vs 0.76, ORCHARDS: 0.68 vs 0.78). Conclusions: ILI performed well in both clinical and community contexts. Factors most highly associated with increased odds of RT-PCR(+) results were cough, fever, and ILI. Inclusion of seasonality and influenza vaccination status improved the predictive value of ILI in both datasets.

Changing pattern of respiratory virus detections among school-aged children in a small community - Dane County, Wisconsin, September to December 2022.

Widespread school closures and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), used to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2, significantly disrupted transmission patterns of seasonal respiratory viruses. As NPIs were relaxed, populations were vulnerable to resurgence. This study within a small community assessed acute respiratory illness among kindergarten through grade 12 students as they returned to public schools from September through December 2022 without masking and distancing requirements. The 277 specimens collected demonstrated a shift from rhinovirus to influenza. With continued circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and return of seasonal respiratory viruses, understanding evolving transmission patterns will play an important role in reducing disease burden.

Productivity costs associated with reactive school closures related to influenza or influenza-like illness in the United States from 2011 to 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Schools close in reaction to seasonal influenza outbreaks and, on occasion, pandemic influenza. The unintended costs of reactive school closures associated with influenza or influenza-like illness (ILI) has not been studied previously. We estimated the costs of ILI-related reactive school closures in the United States over eight academic years. METHODS: We used prospectively collected data on ILI-related reactive school closures from August 1, 2011 to June 30, 2019 to estimate the costs of the closures, which included productivity costs for parents, teachers, and non-teaching school staff. Productivity cost estimates were evaluated by multiplying the number of days for each closure by the state- and year-specific average hourly or daily wage rates for parents, teachers, and school staff. We subdivided total cost and cost per student estimates by school year, state, and urbanicity of school location. RESULTS: The estimated productivity cost of the closures was $476 million in total during the eight years, with most (90%) of the costs occurring between 2016-2017 and 2018-2019, and in Tennessee (55%) and Kentucky (21%). Among all U.S. public schools, the annual cost per student was much higher in Tennessee ($33) and Kentucky ($19) than any other state ($2.4 in the third highest state) or the national average ($1.2). The cost per student was higher in rural areas ($2.9) or towns ($2.5) than cities ($0.6) or suburbs ($0.5). Locations with higher costs tended to have both more closures and closures with longer durations. CONCLUSIONS: In recent years, we found significant heterogeneity in year-to-year costs of ILI-associated reactive school closures. These costs have been greatest in Tennessee and Kentucky and been elevated in rural or town areas relative to cities or suburbs. Our findings might provide evidence to support efforts to reduce the burden of seasonal influenza in these disproportionately impacted states or communities.

Assessment of US Public School District Policies for Pandemic Preparedness and Implications for COVID-19 Response Activities.

OBJECTIVES: To describe school district preparedness for school closures and other relevant strategies before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. METHODS: A stratified random sample of 957 public school districts from the 50 US states and the District of Columbia were surveyed between October 2015 and August 2016. The response rates for the questionnaires were as follows: Healthy and Safe School Environment, Crisis Preparedness Module (60%; N = 572), Nutrition Services (63%; N = 599), and Health Services (64%; N = 613). Data were analyzed using descriptive and regression techniques. RESULTS: Most school districts had procedures that would facilitate the implementation of school closures (88.7%). Fewer districts had plans for ensuring continuity of education (43.0%) or feeding students during closure (33.8%). The prevalence of continuity of education plans was lower in the Midwest than the Northeast (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.51-0.90). Presence of plans for feeding students was higher in high-poverty than low-poverty districts (aPR = 1.41; 95% CI: 1.01-1.99) and in large districts than small districts (aPR = 2.06; 95% CI: 1.37-3.09). CONCLUSIONS: Understanding factors associated with having comprehensive emergency plans could help decision makers to target assistance during the current COVID-19 pandemic and for future planning purposes.

COVID-19-associated school closures and related efforts to sustain education and subsidized meal programs, United States, February 18-June 30, 2020.

Pre-emptive school closures are frontline community mitigation measures recommended by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for implementation during severe pandemics. This study describes the spatiotemporal patterns of publicly announced school closures implemented in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and assesses how public K-12 districts adjusted their methods of education delivery and provision of subsidized meals. During February 18-June 30, 2020, we used daily systematic media searches to identify publicly announced COVID-19-related school closures lasting ≥1 day in the United States (US). We also collected statewide school closure policies from state government websites. Data on distance learning and subsidized meal programs were collected from a stratified sample of 600 school districts. The first COVID-19-associated school closure occurred on February 27, 2020 in Washington state. By March 30, 2020, all but one US public school districts were closed, representing the first-ever nearly synchronous nationwide closure of public K-12 schools in the US. Approximately 100,000 public schools were closed for ≥8 weeks because of COVID-19, affecting >50 million K-12 students. Of 600 districts sampled, the vast majority offered distance learning (91.0%) and continued provision of subsidized meal programs (78.8%) during the closures. Despite the sudden and prolonged nature of COVID-19-associated school closures, schools demonstrated flexibility by implementing distance learning and alternate methods to continue subsidized meal programs.

Paid Leave and Access to Telework as Work Attendance Determinants during Acute Respiratory Illness, United States, 2017-2018.

We assessed determinants of work attendance during the first 3 days after onset of acute respiratory illness (ARI) among workers 19-64 years of age who had medically attended ARI or influenza during the 2017-2018 influenza season. The total number of days worked included days worked at the usual workplace and days teleworked. Access to paid leave was associated with fewer days worked overall and at the usual workplace during illness. Participants who indicated that employees were discouraged from coming to work with influenza-like symptoms were less likely to attend their usual workplace. Compared with workers without a telework option, those with telework access worked more days during illness overall, but there was no difference in days worked at the usual workplace. Both paid leave benefits and business practices that actively encourage employees to stay home while sick are necessary to reduce the transmission of ARI and influenza in workplaces.

Influenza-Related Communication and Community Mitigation Strategies: Results From the 2015 Pandemic Influenza Readiness Assessment.

Emergence of a novel infectious disease, such as pandemic influenza, is the one global crisis most likely to affect the greatest number of people worldwide. Because of the potentially severe and contagious nature of influenza, a rapid multifaceted pandemic response, which includes nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and effective strategies for communication with the public are essential for a timely response and mitigating the spread of disease. A web-based questionnaire was administered via email in July 2015 to 62 Public Health Emergency Preparedness (PHEP) directors across jurisdictions that receive funding through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention PHEP cooperative agreement. This report focuses on two modules: Public Information and Communication and Community Mitigation. Consistent and targeted communication are critical for the acceptability and success of NPIs. All 62 jurisdictions have developed or are in the process of developing a communications plan. Community-level NPIs such as home isolation, school closures, and respiratory etiquette play a critical role in mitigating the spread of disease. Effective, ongoing communication with the public is essential to ensuring wide spread compliance of NPI's, especially among non-English-speaking populations. Planning should also include reaching vulnerable populations and identifying the correct legal authorities for closing schools and canceling mass gatherings.

Unintended costs and consequences of school closures implemented in preparation for Hurricane Isaac in Harrison County School District, Mississippi, August-September 2012.

INTRODUCTION: School closures, while an effective measure against the spread of disease during a pandemic, may carry unintended social and economic consequences for students and families. We evaluated these costs and consequences following a 4-day school closure in Mississippi's Harrison County School District (HCSD). METHODS: In a survey of all households with students enrolled in HCSD, we collected information on difficulties related to the school closure, including interruption of employment and pay, loss of access to subsidized school meals, and arrangement of alternative childcare. We analyzed this information in the context of certain demographic characteristics of the survey respondents and households, such as race, level of education, and income. We also estimated the average number of lost work days and documented the childcare alternatives chosen by households affected by the school closure. RESULTS: We received 2,229 (28.4%) completed surveys from an estimated 7,851 households eligible to participate. About half (1,082 [48.5%]) of the households experienced at least some difficulty during the closure, primarily in three areas: uncertainty about duration of the closure, lost income, and the effort of arranging alternate childcare. Adults working outside the home, particularly the major wage earner in the household, were more likely to suffer lost income while schools were closed, an effect mitigated by paid leave benefits. Difficulty arranging childcare was reported most frequently by respondents with lower levels of education and households with younger children. Beyond the top three concerns expressed by households in HCSD, the survey also shed light on the issue of food insecurity when subsidized school meals are not available. Reported by 17.9% of households participating in the subsidized school lunch program, difficulty providing meals during the closure was associated with higher numbers of dependent children, selection of "other" as the race of the household respondent, and lower levels of education. CONCLUSION: To help prevent undue financial hardship in families of school children, public health authorities and school administrators should provide recommendations for childcare alternatives and paid leave or remote work options during prolonged school closures, particularly to households in which all adults work outside of the home.

Reactive School Closure During Increased Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Activity in Western Kentucky, 2013: A Field Evaluation of Effect on ILI Incidence and Economic and Social Consequences for Families.

Background. School closures are an important mitigation strategy during influenza pandemic: if implemented early in a local outbreak, they can slow the disease spread in the surrounding community. During seasonal influenza epidemics, school closures may occur reactively, after the disease is already widespread in the community. Such reactive closures are often too late to reduce influenza transmission. However, they can provide data to determine under which circumstances they might be effective in reducing influenza-like illness (ILI) transmission. Methods. We conducted a household survey in a school district in Kentucky. District A closed after high student absenteeism due to influenza-like illness (ILI), whereas adjacent Districts B and C remained open. We collected data on self-reported ILI among household members in these 3 districts 2 weeks before the District A closure, during closure, and 2 weeks after reopening, and we evaluated economic and social consequences of school closure on student households in District A. The difference-in-differences method was applied to compare changes in ILI rates from before to after closure between districts. Results. Estimated average daily ILI rate decreased less in District A than in District B or C for the entire sample and when stratified by age groups (0-5 years old, 6-18 years old, and above 18 years old). Twenty-five percent of District A households reported ≥1 closure-related economic or social difficulty. Conclusions. Closing schools after a widespread ILI activity in District A did not reduce ILI transmission but caused difficulties for some households.

Evaluation of an unplanned school closure in a Colorado school district: implications for pandemic influenza preparedness.

OBJECTIVE: From January 29 through February 5, 2013, a school district outside metropolitan Denver, Colorado, was closed because of absenteeism related to influenza-like illness (ILI) among students and staff. We evaluated the consequences and acceptability of the closure among affected households. METHODS: We conducted a household survey regarding parent or guardian employment and income interruptions, alternative child care arrangements, interruption of noneducational school services, ILI symptoms, student re-congregation, and communication preferences during the closure. RESULTS: Of the 35 (31%) of 113 households surveyed, the majority (28 [80%]) reported that the closure was not challenging. Seven (20%) households reported challenges: 5 (14%) reported that 1 or more adults missed work, 3 (9%) reported lost pay, and 1 (3%) reported challenges because of missed subsidized school meals. The majority (22 [63%]) of households reported that a hypothetical 1-month closure would not represent a problem; 6 of 8 households that did anticipate challenges reported that all adults worked outside the home. The majority (58%) of students visited at least 1 outside venue during the closure. CONCLUSIONS: A brief school closure did not pose a major problem for the majority of the affected households surveyed. School and public health officials should consider the needs of families in which all adults work outside the home when creating school closure contingency plans.

Economic analysis of the 1996-1997 mass measles immunization campaigns in South Africa.

To evaluate economic implications of conducting a "catch-up" measles vaccination campaign, we conducted an economic analysis of the 1996-1997 measles immunization campaign in two provinces of South Africa comparing the baseline two-dose routine immunization program to the combined vaccination strategy (routine two-dose immunization program, plus the 1996-1997 campaign). The study findings indicate that the 1996-1997 mass measles immunization campaign was cost-effective in both study provinces, and cost-saving in the province with higher pre-campaign disease incidence and lower routine vaccination coverage. An early investment in effective vaccination strategies that rapidly reduce disease burden apparently results in better returns, both epidemiologically and economically.