Accuracy of parents' subjective assessment of paediatric fever with thermometer measured fever in a primary care setting.

BACKGROUND: Fever is a common symptom of benign childhood illness but a high fever may be a sign of a serious infection. Temperature is often used by parents to check for illness in their children, and the presence of a high temperature can act as a prompt to consult a healthcare professional. It would be helpful for GPs to understand how well parental assessment of the presence of fever correlates with temperature measurement in the clinic in order to incorporate the history of the child's fever into their clinical assessment. METHODS: Secondary analysis of a cross-sectional diagnostic method comparison study. Parents were asked whether they thought their child had fever before their temperature was measured by a researcher. Fever was defined as a temperature of 38 °C and higher using either an axillary or tympanic thermometer. RESULTS: Of 399 children recruited, 119 (29.8%) were believed by their parents to be febrile at the time of questioning and 23 (6.3%) had a fever as measured by a researcher in the clinic. 23.5% of children with a parental assessment of fever were found to have a fever in the clinic. Less than 1% of children whose parents thought they did not have a fever were found to be febrile in the clinic. Having more than one child did not improve accuracy of parents assessing fever in their child. CONCLUSIONS: In the GP surgery setting, a child identified as afebrile by their parent is highly likely to be measured as such in the clinic. A child identified as febrile by their parent is less likely to be measured as febrile.

Clinical Features for the Diagnosis of Pediatric Urinary Tract Infections: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Accurate diagnosis of urinary tract infection in children is essential because children left untreated can experience permanent renal injury. We aimed to assess the diagnostic value of clinical features of pediatric urinary tract infection. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of diagnostic test accuracy studies in ambulatory care. We searched the PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Health Technology Assessment, and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects databases from inception to January 27, 2020 for studies reporting 2 × 2 diagnostic accuracy data for clinical features compared with urine culture in children aged <18 years. For each clinical feature, we calculated likelihood ratios and posttest probabilities of urinary tract infection. To estimate summary parameters, we conducted a bivariate random effects meta-analysis and hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic analysis. RESULTS: A total of 35 studies (N = 78,427 patients) of moderate to high quality were included, providing information on 58 clinical features and 6 prediction rules. Only circumcision (negative likelihood ratio [LR-] 0.24; 95% CI, 0.08-0.72; n = 8), stridor (LR- 0.20; 95% CI, 0.05-0.81; n = 1), and diaper rash (LR- 0.13; 95% CI, 0.02-0.92; n = 1) were useful for ruling out urinary tract infection. Body temperature or fever duration showed limited diagnostic value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47-0.73; n = 16). The Diagnosis of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children score, Gorelick Scale score, and UTIcalc (https://uticalc.pitt.edu) might be useful to identify children eligible for urine sampling. CONCLUSIONS: Few clinical signs and symptoms are useful for diagnosing or ruling out urinary tract infection in children. Clinical prediction rules might be more accurate; however, they should be validated externally. Physicians should not restrict urine sampling to children with unexplained fever or other features suggestive of urinary tract infection.

Parents' concerns and beliefs about temperature measurement in children: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Nearly 40% of parents with children aged 6 to 17 months consult a healthcare professional when their child has a high temperature. Clinical guidelines recommend temperature measurement in these children, but little is known about parents' experiences of and beliefs about temperature measurement. This study aimed to explore parents' concerns and beliefs about temperature measurement in children. METHODS: Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted from May 2017 to June 2018 with 21 parents of children aged 4 months to 5.5 years, who were purposively sampled from the METRIC study (a method comparison study comparing non-contact infrared thermometers to axillary and tympanic thermometers in acutely ill children). Data analysis followed a thematic approach. RESULTS: Parents described the importance of being able to detect fever, in particular high fevers, and how this then influenced their actions. The concept of "accuracy" was valued by parents but the aspects of performance which were felt to reflect accuracy varied. Parents used numerical values of temperature in four main ways: determining precision of the thermometer on repeat measures, detecting a "bad" fever, as an indication to administer antipyretics, or monitoring response to treatment. Family and social networks, the internet, and medical professionals and resources, were all key sources of advice for parents regarding fever, and guiding thermometer choice. CONCLUSIONS: Temperature measurement in children has diagnostic value but can either empower, or cause anxiety and practical challenges for parents. This represents an opportunity for both improved communication between parents and healthcare professionals, and technological development, to support parents to manage febrile illness with greater confidence in the home.

Non-contact infrared thermometers compared with current approaches in primary care for children aged 5 years and under: a method comparison study.

BACKGROUND: Current options for temperature measurement in children presenting to primary care include either electronic axillary or infrared tympanic thermometers. Non-contact infrared thermometers could reduce both the distress of the child and the risk of cross-infection. OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the use of non-contact thermometers with the use of electronic axillary and infrared tympanic thermometers in children presenting to primary care. DESIGN: Method comparison study with a nested qualitative study. SETTING: Primary care in Oxfordshire. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged ≤ 5 years attending with an acute illness. INTERVENTIONS: Two types of non-contact infrared thermometers [i.e. Thermofocus (Tecnimed, Varese, Italy) and Firhealth (Firhealth, Shenzhen, China)] were compared with an electronic axillary thermometer and an infrared tympanic thermometer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was agreement between the Thermofocus non-contact infrared thermometer and the axillary thermometer. Secondary outcomes included agreement between all other sets of thermometers, diagnostic accuracy for detecting fever, parental and child ratings of acceptability and discomfort, and themes arising from our qualitative interviews with parents. RESULTS: A total of 401 children (203 boys) were recruited, with a median age of 1.6 years (interquartile range 0.79-3.38 years). The readings of the Thermofocus non-contact infrared thermometer differed from those of the axillary thermometer by -0.14 °C (95% confidence interval -0.21 to -0.06 °C) on average with the lower limit of agreement being -1.57 °C (95% confidence interval -1.69 to -1.44 °C) and the upper limit being 1.29 °C (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.42 °C). The readings of the Firhealth non-contact infrared thermometer differed from those of the axillary thermometer by -0.16 °C (95% confidence interval -0.23 to -0.09 °C) on average, with the lower limit of agreement being -1.54 °C (95% confidence interval -1.66 to -1.41 °C) and the upper limit being 1.22 °C (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.34 °C). The difference between the first and second readings of the Thermofocus was -0.04 °C (95% confidence interval -0.07 to -0.01 °C); the lower limit was -0.56 °C (95% confidence interval -0.60 to -0.51 °C) and the upper limit was 0.47 °C (95% confidence interval 0.43 to 0.52 °C). The difference between the first and second readings of the Firhealth thermometer was 0.01 °C (95% confidence interval -0.02 to 0.04 °C); the lower limit was -0.60 °C (95% confidence interval -0.65 to -0.54 °C) and the upper limit was 0.61 °C (95% confidence interval 0.56 to 0.67 °C). Sensitivity and specificity for the Thermofocus non-contact infrared thermometer were 66.7% (95% confidence interval 38.4% to 88.2%) and 98.0% (95% confidence interval 96.0% to 99.2%), respectively. For the Firhealth non-contact infrared thermometer, sensitivity was 12.5% (95% confidence interval 1.6% to 38.3%) and specificity was 99.4% (95% confidence interval 98.0% to 99.9%). The majority of parents found all methods to be acceptable, although discomfort ratings were highest for the axillary thermometer. The non-contact thermometers required fewer readings than the comparator thermometers. LIMITATIONS: A method comparison study does not compare new methods against a reference standard, which in this case would be central thermometry requiring the placement of a central line, which is not feasible or acceptable in primary care. Electronic axillary and infrared tympanic thermometers have been found to have moderate agreement themselves with central temperature measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The 95% limits of agreement are > 1 °C for both non-contact infrared thermometers compared with electronic axillary and infrared tympanic thermometers, which could affect clinical decision-making. Sensitivity for fever was low to moderate for both non-contact thermometers. FUTURE WORK: Better methods for peripheral temperature measurement that agree well with central thermometry are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15413321. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 53. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

General practitioners commonly measure children's temperature using a thermometer placed in the armpit or ear canal. New 'non-contact' thermometers use infrared light to measure temperature without touching the child. They are easy to use and there is no risk of passing on infections. However, we do not know how well they measure temperature compared with thermometers that use the armpit or the ear. This study aimed to compare two non-contact thermometers with current thermometers. We measured children's temperature with all thermometer types, and asked children and their parents about their views. The study was performed in general practices in Oxfordshire with children aged ≤ 5 years who had come to see their general practitioner because they had recently become unwell. Both the cheaper and more expensive non-contact thermometers gave slightly lower temperature readings on average than current thermometers. The vast majority of readings ranged from 1.6 °C lower to 1.3 °C higher than current thermometers. The detection of fever of at least 38 °C was low to moderate for both non-contact thermometers. Most parents did not think that their child was distressed by having their temperature taken using any of the thermometers, but the armpit thermometer was rated as the least comfortable. When interviewed, parents were more negative about the armpit thermometers, although still willing to use them if they were recommended by doctors. Although we found that the readings from the different thermometers did not match, we do not know whether the non-contact or the current thermometers were giving readings that were closer to the real temperature of the child. To understand this, we would need to do a study that included a more invasive procedure for temperature assessment.

Is stratification testing for treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations cost-effective in primary care? an early cost-utility analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who experience acute exacerbations usually require treatment with oral steroids or antibiotics, depending on the etiology of the exacerbation. Current management is based on clinician's assessment and judgement, which lacks diagnostic accuracy and results in overtreatment. A test to guide these decisions in primary care is in development. We developed an early decision model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this treatment stratification test in the primary care setting in the United Kingdom. METHODS: A combined decision tree and Markov model was developed of COPD progression and the exacerbation care pathway. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to guide technology development and inform evidence generation requirements. RESULTS: The base case test strategy cost GBP 423 (USD 542) less and resulted in a health gain of 0.15 quality-adjusted life-years per patient compared with not testing. Testing reduced antibiotic prescriptions by 30 percent, potentially lowering the risk of antimicrobial resistance developing. In sensitivity analysis, the result depended on the clinical effects of treating patients according to the test result, as opposed to treating according to clinical judgement alone, for which there is limited evidence. The results were less sensitive to the accuracy of the test. CONCLUSIONS: Testing may be cost-saving in primary care, but this requires robust evidence on whether test-guided treatment is effective. High quality evidence on the clinical utility of testing is required for early modeling of diagnostic tests generally.

Common evidence gaps in point-of-care diagnostic test evaluation: a review of horizon scan reports.

OBJECTIVE: Since 2008, the Oxford Diagnostic Horizon Scan Programme has been identifying and summarising evidence on new and emerging diagnostic technologies relevant to primary care. We used these reports to determine the sequence and timing of evidence for new point-of-care diagnostic tests and to identify common evidence gaps in this process. DESIGN: Systematic overview of diagnostic horizon scan reports. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: We obtained the primary studies referenced in each horizon scan report (n=40) and extracted details of the study size, clinical setting and design characteristics. In particular, we assessed whether each study evaluated test accuracy, test impact or cost-effectiveness. The evidence for each point-of-care test was mapped against the Horvath framework for diagnostic test evaluation. RESULTS: We extracted data from 500 primary studies. Most diagnostic technologies underwent clinical performance (ie, ability to detect a clinical condition) assessment (71.2%), with very few progressing to comparative clinical effectiveness (10.0%) and a cost-effectiveness evaluation (8.6%), even in the more established and frequently reported clinical domains, such as cardiovascular disease. The median time to complete an evaluation cycle was 9 years (IQR 5.5-12.5 years). The sequence of evidence generation was typically haphazard and some diagnostic tests appear to be implemented in routine care without completing essential evaluation stages such as clinical effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence generation for new point-of-care diagnostic tests is slow and tends to focus on accuracy, and overlooks other test attributes such as impact, implementation and cost-effectiveness. Evaluation of this dynamic cycle and feeding back data from clinical effectiveness to refine analytical and clinical performance are key to improve the efficiency of point-of-care diagnostic test development and impact on clinically relevant outcomes. While the 'road map' for the steps needed to generate evidence are reasonably well delineated, we provide evidence on the complexity, length and variability of the actual process that many diagnostic technologies undergo.

Validating a decision tree for serious infection: diagnostic accuracy in acutely ill children in ambulatory care.

OBJECTIVE: Acute infection is the most common presentation of children in primary care with only few having a serious infection (eg, sepsis, meningitis, pneumonia). To avoid complications or death, early recognition and adequate referral are essential. Clinical prediction rules have the potential to improve diagnostic decision-making for rare but serious conditions. In this study, we aimed to validate a recently developed decision tree in a new but similar population. DESIGN: Diagnostic accuracy study validating a clinical prediction rule. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Acutely ill children presenting to ambulatory care in Flanders, Belgium, consisting of general practice and paediatric assessment in outpatient clinics or the emergency department. INTERVENTION: Physicians were asked to score the decision tree in every child. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome of interest was hospital admission for at least 24 h with a serious infection within 5 days after initial presentation. We report the diagnostic accuracy of the decision tree in sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values. RESULTS: In total, 8962 acute illness episodes were included, of which 283 lead to admission to hospital with a serious infection. Sensitivity of the decision tree was 100% (95% CI 71.5% to 100%) at a specificity of 83.6% (95% CI 82.3% to 84.9%) in the general practitioner setting with 17% of children testing positive. In the paediatric outpatient and emergency department setting, sensitivities were below 92%, with specificities below 44.8%. CONCLUSIONS: In an independent validation cohort, this clinical prediction rule has shown to be extremely sensitive to identify children at risk of hospital admission for a serious infection in general practice, making it suitable for ruling out. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02024282.

The cost-utility of left ventricular assist devices for end-stage heart failure patients ineligible for cardiac transplantation: a systematic review and critical appraisal of economic evaluations.

BACKGROUND: A health technology assessment (HTA) of left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) as destination therapy in patients with end-stage heart failure was commissioned by the Dutch Health Care Insurance Board [College voor Zorgverzekeringen (CVZ)]. In this context, a systematic review of the economic literature was performed to assess the procedure's value for money. METHODS: A systematic search (updated in December 2013) for economic evaluations was performed by consulting various databases: the HTA database produced by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD HTA), websites of HTA institutes, CRD's National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Medline (OVID) and EMBASE. No time or language restrictions were imposed and pre-defined selection criteria were used. The two-step selection procedure was performed by two people. References of the selected studies were checked for additional relevant citations. RESULTS: Six relevant studies were selected. Four economic evaluations relied on the results of the REMATCH trial to compare a pulsatile-flow LVAD with optimal medical therapy (OMT). These evaluations were performed before the publication of the HeartMate II (HM-II) Destination Therapy Trial which compared a pulsatile-flow with a continuous-flow LVAD. Two more recent economic evaluations combined the results of both trials to make an indirect comparison of a continuous-flow LVAD with OMT. In all studies, the largest part of the incremental cost was due to the reimplantation cost of an LVAD, with a device cost of €58,000-€75,000 and about €55,000 for the surgical procedure. The survival gain was highest with a continuous-flow LVAD, up to about three life-years gained (LYG) versus OMT in the most optimistic study. Quality of life (QoL) was improved but measures with a generic utility instrument were lacking, making estimates on quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained more uncertain. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of the two most recent studies were on average €107,600 and $198,184 (ca.€145,800) per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Although LVAD destination therapy improves survival and QoL, it remains questionable as to whether it offers value for money. This conclusion may alter if the price of the device/procedure decreases sufficiently, in combination with further improved outcomes for mortality, adverse events and QoL.

Cost-effectiveness of continuous-flow left ventricular assist devices.

OBJECTIVES: Mechanical circulatory support through left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) improves survival and quality of life for patients with end-stage heart failure who are ineligible for cardiac transplantation. Our aim was to calculate the cost-effectiveness of continuous-flow LVADs. METHODS: A cost-utility analysis from a societal perspective was performed. A lifetime Markov model was set up in which continuous-flow LVAD was compared with optimal medical therapy (OMT). The treatment effect was modeled indirectly combining the results of the REMATCH trial comparing OMT with a pulsatile-flow LVAD and the HeartMate II Destination Therapy Trial comparing a pulsatile-flow LVAD with a continuous-flow LVAD. Cost data were based on real-world financial data of sixty-nine patients with a HeartMate II implantation from the University Medical Centre Utrecht (the Netherlands). One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Comparing the continuous-flow HeartMate II with OMT, 3.23 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 2.18-4.49) life-years were gained (LYG) or 2.83 (95 percent CI, 1.91-3.90) quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The cost of an LVAD implant was approximately €126,000, of which the device itself represented the largest cost, being €70,000. Total incremental costs amounted to €299,100 (95 percent CI, 190,500-521,000). This resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €94,100 (95 percent CI, 59,100-160,100) per LYG or €107,600 (95 percent CI, 66,700-181,100) per QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed these results were robust. CONCLUSIONS: Although LVAD destination therapy improves survival and quality of life, it remains a relatively expensive intervention which renders the reimbursement of this therapy questionable.

Health services for children in western Europe.

Western European health systems are not keeping pace with changes in child health needs. Non-communicable diseases are increasingly common causes of childhood illness and death. Countries are responding to changing needs by adapting child health services in different ways and useful insights can be gained through comparison, especially because some have better outcomes, or have made more progress, than others. Although overall child health has improved throughout Europe, wide inequities remain. Health services and social and cultural determinants contribute to differences in health outcomes. Improvement of child health and reduction of suffering are achievable goals. Development of systems more responsive to evolving child health needs is likely to necessitate reconfiguring of health services as part of a whole-systems approach to improvement of health. Chronic care services and first-contact care systems are important aspects. The Swedish and Dutch experiences of development of integrated systems emphasise the importance of supportive policies backed by adequate funding. France, the UK, Italy, and Germany offer further insights into chronic care services in different health systems. First-contact care models and the outcomes they deliver are highly variable. Comparisons between systems are challenging. Important issues emerging include the organisation of first-contact models, professional training, arrangements for provision of out-of-hours services, and task-sharing between doctors and nurses. Flexible first-contact models in which child health professionals work closely together could offer a way to balance the need to provide expertise with ready access. Strategies to improve child health and health services in Europe necessitate a whole-systems approach in three interdependent systems-practice (chronic care models, first-contact care, competency standards for child health professionals), plans (child health indicator sets, reliable systems for capture and analysis of data, scale-up of child health research, anticipation of future child health needs), and policy (translation of high-level goals into actionable policies, open and transparent accountability structures, political commitment to delivery of improvements in child health and equity throughout Europe).

Dealing with low-incidence serious diseases in general practice.

Cost-effective health care depends on high-quality triage. The most challenging aspect of triage, which GPs confront on a regular basis, is diagnosing rare but serious disease. Failure to shoulder any risk in this situation overloads the health system and subjects patients to unnecessary investigation. Adopting too high a risk threshold leads to missed cases, late diagnosis, and sometimes avoidable death. It also undermines the credibility of primary care practitioners. Quantification of diagnostic risk suggests there is a potential risk gap between the maximum certainty with which GPs can assess the risk of serious disease at presentation and the minimum certainty required by many health systems for further investigation or hospital referral. Physician gut-feeling and diagnostic safety netting are often employed to fill the gap. Neither strategy is well defined or well supported by evidence. It should be possible to reduce the diagnostic risk gap cost-effectively by adopting more explicit diagnostic algorithms and providing better GP access to new diagnostic technologies. It is also essential, given the decreasing experience of triage clinicians employed in a number of countries, that a teachable evidence base is constructed for gut feeling and diagnostic safety netting. However, this construction of an evidence base requires very large-scale studies, and the global primary care research community remains small. The challenge therefore needs to be met by urgent and effective international collaboration.

Tiotropium's cost-effectiveness for the treatment of COPD: a cost-utility analysis under real-world conditions.

BACKGROUND: Tiotropium is reimbursed since March 2004 in Belgium for the treatment of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). Questions however remain on this product's value for money. The purpose of this study is to calculate tiotropium's cost-effectiveness under real-world conditions. METHODS: Strengths of both observational and RCT data were combined in a model. A large longitudinal (2002-2006) observational dataset of regular tiotropium users (56,321 patients) was analysed to retrieve the baseline risk for exacerbations and exacerbation-related hospitalisations the year before the first delivery of tiotropium. The relative treatment effect from the UPLIFT (Understanding Potential Long-term Impacts on Function with Tiotropium) trial was then applied to this baseline risk to reflect the effect of tiotropium treatment and calculate the intervention's incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: After 1000 Latin Hypercube simulations, the incremental benefit expressed as quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained is on average 0.00048 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.00009-0.00092). In combination with a substantial mean incremental cost of €373 per patient (95% CI 279-475), this results in an unfavourable average ICER of €1,244,023 (95% CI 328,571-4,712,704) per QALY gained. Results were most sensitive to the treatment effect on hospitalisations. Based on our large observational database, up to 89% of the patients were not hospitalised for COPD in the year before the first tiotropium delivery. CONCLUSIONS: The main cause for tiotropium's unfavourable cost-effectiveness ratio is a combination of a relative high price for tiotropium, a low number of hospitalisations without tiotropium treatment (on average 0.14/year) and a non-significant treatment effect (on average 0.94) with respect to avoiding exacerbation-related hospitalisations. From an economic point of view, a revision of reimbursement modalities (e.g. with a lower price) would be justified and would entail a more efficient use of resources.

Diagnostic value of clinical features at presentation to identify serious infection in children in developed countries: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Our aim was to identify which clinical features have value in confirming or excluding the possibility of serious infection in children presenting to ambulatory care settings in developed countries. METHODS: In this systematic review, we searched electronic databases (Medline, Embase, DARE, CINAHL), reference lists of relevant studies, and contacted experts to identify articles assessing clinical features of serious infection in children. 1939 potentially relevant studies were identified. Studies were selected on the basis of six criteria: design (studies of diagnostic accuracy or prediction rules), participants (otherwise healthy children aged 1 month to 18 years), setting (ambulatory care), outcome (serious infection), features assessed (assessable in ambulatory care setting), and sufficient data reported. Quality assessment was based on the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies criteria. We calculated likelihood ratios for the presence (positive likelihood ratio) or absence (negative likelihood ratio) of each clinical feature and pre-test and post-test probabilities of the outcome. Clinical features with a positive likelihood ratio of more than 5.0 were deemed red flags (ie, warning signs for serious infection); features with a negative likelihood ratio of less than 0.2 were deemed rule-out signs. FINDINGS: 30 studies were included in the analysis. Cyanosis (positive likelihood ratio range 2.66-52.20), rapid breathing (1.26-9.78), poor peripheral perfusion (2.39-38.80), and petechial rash (6.18-83.70) were identified as red flags in several studies. Parental concern (positive likelihood ratio 14.40, 95% CI 9.30-22.10) and clinician instinct (positive likelihood ratio 23.50, 95 % CI 16.80-32.70) were identified as strong red flags in one primary care study. Temperature of 40 degrees C or more has value as a red flag in settings with a low prevalence of serious infection. No single clinical feature has rule-out value but some combinations can be used to exclude the possibility of serious infection-for example, pneumonia is very unlikely (negative likelihood ratio 0.07, 95% CI 0.01-0.46) if the child is not short of breath and there is no parental concern. The Yale Observation Scale had little value in confirming (positive likelihood ratio range 1.10-6.70) or excluding (negative likelihood ratio range 0.16-0.97) the possibility of serious infection. INTERPRETATION: The red flags for serious infection that we identified should be used routinely, but serious illness will still be missed without effective use of precautionary measures. We now need to identify the level of risk at which clinical action should be taken. FUNDING: Health Technology Assessment and National Institute for Health Research National School for Primary Care Research.

GPs' reasons for referral of patients with chest pain: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Prompt diagnosis of an acute coronary syndrome is very important and urgent referral to a hospital is imperative because fast treatment can be life-saving and increase the patient's life expectancy and quality of life. The aim of our study was to identify GPs' reasons for referring or not referring patients presenting with chest pain. METHODS: In a semi-structured interview, 21 GPs were asked to describe why they do or do not refer a patient presenting with chest pain. Interviews were taped, transcribed and qualitatively analysed. RESULTS: Histories of 21 patients were studied. Six were not referred, seven were referred to a cardiologist and eight to the emergency department. GPs' reasons for referral were background knowledge about the patient, patient's age and cost-benefit estimation, the perception of a negative attitude from the medical rescue team, recent patient contact with a cardiologist without detection of a coronary disease and the actual presentation of signs and symptoms, gut feeling, clinical examination and ECG results. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that GPs believe they do not exclusively use the 'classical' signs and symptoms in their decision-making process for patients presenting with chest pain. Background knowledge about the patient, GPs' personal ideas and gut feeling are also important.

Methodology for calculating a country's need for positron emission tomography scanners.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to develop a methodology for calculating the need for positron emission tomography (PET) scanners in a country and illustrate this methodology for Belgium. METHODS: First, levels of evidence were assigned to PET in different indications according to a standard hierarchical classification system. The level reached depends on whether there is evidence on diagnostic accuracy, impact on diagnostic thinking, therapeutic impact, impact on patient outcomes, or cost-effectiveness. Second, the number of patients eligible for PET for each indication was derived from a registry of PET. Third, the number of PET scanners needed in Belgium was estimated for different baseline hypotheses about maximum annual capacity of a scanner and the minimally required level of evidence. RESULTS: The number of PET scanners needed crucially depends on the level of evidence considered acceptable for the implementation of PET: the higher the level of evidence required, the lower the number of PET scanners needed. Belgium needs at least three and at most ten PET scanners. This contrasts with the thirteen currently approved. CONCLUSIONS: Scientific evidence and information on the eligible population for a specific procedure are crucial elements for policy makers who wish to make evidence-based decisions about programming and planning of heavy medical equipment.