Generating Older Adult Multimorbidity Trajectories Using Various Comorbidity Indices and Calculation Methods.

Background and Objectives: Older adult multimorbidity trajectories are helpful for understanding the current and future health patterns of aging populations. The construction of multimorbidity trajectories from comorbidity index scores will help inform public health and clinical interventions targeting those individuals that are on unhealthy trajectories. Investigators have used many different techniques when creating multimorbidity trajectories in prior literature, and no standard way has emerged. This study compares and contrasts multimorbidity trajectories constructed from various methods. Research Design and Methods: We describe the difference between aging trajectories constructed with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Elixhauser Comorbidity Index (ECI). We also explore the differences between acute (single-year) and chronic (cumulative) derivations of CCI and ECI scores. Social determinants of health can affect disease burden over time; thus, our models include income, race/ethnicity, and sex differences. Results: We use group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) to estimate multimorbidity trajectories for 86,909 individuals aged 66-75 in 1992 using Medicare claims data collected over the following 21 years. We identify low-chronic disease and high-chronic disease trajectories in all 8 generated trajectory models. Additionally, all 8 models satisfied prior established statistical diagnostic criteria for well-performing GBTM models. Discussion and Implications: Clinicians may use these trajectories to identify patients on an unhealthy path and prompt a possible intervention that may shift the patient to a healthier trajectory.

Evidence of transgenerational effects on autism spectrum disorder using multigenerational space-time cluster detection.

BACKGROUND: Transgenerational epigenetic risks associated with complex health outcomes, such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD), have attracted increasing attention. Transgenerational environmental risk exposures with potential for epigenetic effects can be effectively identified using space-time clustering. Specifically applied to ancestors of individuals with disease outcomes, space-time clustering characterized for vulnerable developmental stages of growth can provide a measure of relative risk for disease outcomes in descendants. OBJECTIVES: (1) Identify space-time clusters of ancestors with a descendent with a clinical ASD diagnosis and matched controls. (2) Identify developmental windows of ancestors with the highest relative risk for ASD in descendants. (3) Identify how the relative risk may vary through the maternal or paternal line. METHODS: Family pedigrees linked to residential locations of ASD cases in Utah have been used to identify space-time clusters of ancestors. Control family pedigrees of none-cases based on age and sex have been matched to cases 2:1. The data have been categorized by maternal or paternal lineage at birth, childhood, and adolescence. A total of 3957 children, both parents, and maternal and paternal grandparents were identified. Bernoulli space-time binomial relative risk (RR) scan statistic was used to identify clusters. Monte Carlo simulation was used for statistical significance testing. RESULTS: Twenty statistically significant clusters were identified. Thirteen increased RR (> 1.0) space-time clusters were identified from the maternal and paternal lines at a p-value < 0.05. The paternal grandparents carry the greatest RR (2.86-2.96) during birth and childhood in the 1950's-1960, which represent the smallest size clusters, and occur in urban areas. Additionally, seven statistically significant clusters with RR < 1 were relatively large in area, covering more rural areas of the state. CONCLUSION: This study has identified statistically significant space-time clusters during critical developmental windows that are associated with ASD risk in descendants. The geographic space and time clusters family pedigrees with over 3 + generations, which we refer to as a person's geographic legacy, is a powerful tool for studying transgenerational effects that may be epigenetic in nature. Our novel use of space-time clustering can be applied to any disease where family pedigree data is available.

Heavy metals drinking water contamination and health risk assessment among primary school children of Pakistan.

The purpose of this study was to characterize the concentrations of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), manganese (Mn), and Fe (Fe) in drinking water sources in primary schools in Sindh Province, Pakistan and to quantify potential health risks among those school children. We conducted a representative, cross-sectional study among 425 primary schools in Sindh province of Pakistan. We used risk assessment models to estimate the metal index, pollution index, lifetime cancer risk, and hazard quotient index. Across the 425 sampled schools, the levels of heavy metals in the drinking water often exceeded the WHO permissible limits (67% of schools exceeded Pb limit, 17% for Cd, 15% for Fe). The average incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for Pb exceeded tolerable limits in all of the districts under study. The findings, particularly for Pb, are of concern, as Pb may negatively influence children's growth, development, school performance, and long-term health.

Influence of Geographic Access on Surgical Center Readmissions After Index Congenital Heart Surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of geographic access to surgical center on readmission risk and burden in children after congenital heart surgery. STUDY DESIGN: Children <6 years old at discharge after congenital heart surgery (Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery-1 score 2-6) were identified using Pediatric Health Information System data (46 hospitals, 2004-2015). Residential distance from the surgery center, calculated using ZIP code centroids, was categorized as <15, 15-29, 30-59, 60-119, and ≥120 miles. Rurality was defined using rural-urban commuting area codes. Geographic risk factors for unplanned readmissions to the surgical center and associated burden (total hospital length of stay [LOS], costs, and complications) were analyzed using multivariable regression. RESULTS: Among 59 696 eligible children, 19 355 (32%) had ≥1 unplanned readmission. The median LOS was 9 days (IQR 22) across the entire cohort. In those readmitted, median total costs were $31 559 (IQR $90 176). Distance from the center was inversely related but rurality was positively related to readmission risk. Among those readmitted, increased distance was associated with longer LOS, more complications, and greater costs. Compared with urban patients, highly rural patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission but had fewer average readmission days. CONCLUSIONS: Geographic measures of access differentially affect readmission to the surgery center. Increased distance from the center was associated with fewer unplanned readmissions but more complications. Among those readmitted, the most isolated patients had the greatest readmission costs. Understanding the contribution of geographic access will aid in developing strategies to improve care delivery to this population.

Correlation of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater with COVID-19 disease burden in sewersheds.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which causes the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), is shed in feces and the viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) is detectable in wastewater. A nine-week wastewater epidemiology study of ten wastewater facilities, serving 39% of the state of Utah or 1.26 M individuals was conducted in April and May of 2020. COVID-19 cases were tabulated from within each sewershed boundary. RNA from SARS-CoV-2 was detectable in 61% of 126 wastewater samples. Urban sewersheds serving >100,000 individuals and tourist communities had higher detection frequencies. An outbreak of COVID-19 across two communities positively correlated with an increase in wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA, while a decline in COVID-19 cases preceded a decline in RNA. SARS-CoV-2 RNA followed a first order decay rate in wastewater, while 90% of the RNA was present in the liquid phase of the influent. Infiltration and inflow, virus decay and sewershed characteristics should be considered during correlation analysis of SAR-CoV-2 with COVID-19 cases. These results provide evidence of the utility of wastewater epidemiology to assist in public health responses to COVID-19.

The association between preconception body mass index and subfertility among Hispanic and non-Hispanic women: A cross-sectional study from Utah's Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System survey (2012-2015).

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and subfertility within a population-based cohort, exploring Hispanic ethnicity as a potential effect modifier. METHODS: We used cross-sectional study data from the Utah Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System from 2012-2015. Relationships between maternal pre-pregnancy BMI and subfertility were evaluated via Poisson regression models with robust error variance, accounting for the stratified survey sampling. Preconception BMI was analyzed continuously and categorically. Women's subfertility was defined via self-report in two ways: 1) time trying to achieve pregnancy; and 2) report of using fertility-related drugs/medical procedures. RESULTS: The median age was 27.0; 18.8% were obese, and 15.9% were Hispanic. Women with preconception obesity (BMI>30kg/m2), compared to normal weight women (18.4kg/ m2

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Drinking Water Quality to Predict the Risk of Waterborne Diseases in Primary-School Children.

Primary-school children in low- and middle-income countries are often deprived of microbiologically safe water and sanitation, often resulting in a high prevalence of gastrointestinal diseases and poor school performance. We used Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to predict the probability of infection in schoolchildren due to consumption of unsafe school water. A multistage random-sampling technique was used to randomly select 425 primary schools from ten districts of Sindh, Pakistan, to produce a representative sample of the province. We characterized water supplies in selected schools. Microbiological testing of water resulted in inputs for the QMRA model, to estimate the risks of infections to schoolchildren. Groundwater (62%) and surface water (38%) were identified as two major sources of drinking water in the selected schools, presenting varying degrees of health risks. Around half of the drinking-water samples were contaminated with Escherichia coli (49%), Shigella spp. (63%), Salmonella spp. (53%), and Vibrio cholerae (49%). Southern Sindh was found to have the highest risk of infection and illness from Campylobacter and Rotavirus. Central and Northern Sindh had a comparatively lower risk of waterborne diseases. Schoolchildren of Karachi were estimated to have the highest probability of illness per year, due to Campylobacter (70%) and Rotavirus (22.6%). Pearson correlation was run to assess the relationship between selected pathogens. V. cholerae was correlated with Salmonella spp., Campylobacter, Rotavirus, and Salmonella spp. Overall, the risk of illness due to the bacterial infection (E. coli, Salmonella spp., V. cholerae, Shigella, and Campylobacter) was high. There is a dire need for management plans in the schools of Sindh, to halt the progression of waterborne diseases in school-going children.

Short-Term Air Pollution and Incident Pneumonia. A Case-Crossover Study.

RATIONALE: The relationship between air pollution and pneumonia is poorly understood. OBJECTIVES: To examine relationships between short-term air pollution exposure and number and severity of pneumonia cases along the Wasatch Front in Utah, a region with periodic high levels of outdoor air pollution. METHODS: We applied time-stratified case-crossover analyses with distributed lag to patients presenting to seven emergency departments with pneumonia over a 2-year period. We compared levels of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter, nitrogen dioxide, and ozone at patient residences with emergency department cases, hospitalizations, objectively defined severe pneumonia, and mortality. We calculated direct cost impacts of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter reduction. RESULTS: We evaluated 4,336 pneumonia cases in seven hospitals. Among adults aged 65 years and older, we found consistently positive associations between particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter within 6 days of presentation and instances of pneumonia (Lag Day 1 adjusted odds ratio, 1.35 per 10 µg/m3 over 12 µg/m3; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-1.57), severe pneumonia (Lag Day 1 adjusted odds ratio, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.80), and inpatient mortality (Lag Day 5 adjusted odds ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-2.16). Smaller associations were found between nitrogen dioxide exposure and pneumonia occurrence, severity, and inpatient and 30-day mortality. Ozone exposure was modestly associated with increased instance and severity of pneumonia in younger adults. Particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter and nitrogen dioxide effects were greatest in colder months, and ozone effects were greatest in warmer months. Reduction of particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter levels to less than 12.0 mg/m3 could prevent 76-112 cases of pneumonia per year in these hospitals serving approximately half of the Wasatch Front's population, reducing direct medical facility costs by $807,000 annually. CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, short-term ambient particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter exposure is associated with more emergency department visits and hospitalizations for pneumonia, severe pneumonia, increased mortality, and increased healthcare costs. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone modestly increase pneumonia risk and illness severity.

It takes a village: Exploring the impact of social determinants on delivery system outcomes for heart failure patients.

BACKGROUND: Local social determinants may act as effect modifiers for the impact of neighborhood material deprivation on patient-level healthcare outcomes. The objective of this study was to understand the mediating effect of local social determinants on neighborhood material deprivation and delivery outcomes in heart failure (HF) patients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using 4737 HF patients receiving inpatient care (n=6065 encounters) from an integrated healthcare delivery system from 2010 to 2014. Outcomes included post-discharge mortality, readmission risk and length of stay. Deprivation was measured using an area deprivation index by address of residence. Effect modifications measured included urban-rural residency and faith identification using generalized linear regression models. Patient-level data was drawn from the delivery system data warehouse. RESULTS: Faith identification had a significant protective effect on HF patients from deprived areas, lowering 30-day mortality odds by one-third over patients who did not identify with a faith (OR 0.35 95%CI:0.12-0.98;p=0.05). Significant effects persisted at the 90 and 180-day timeframes. In rural areas, lack of faith identification had a multiplicative effect on 30-day mortality for deprived patients (OR 14.0 95%CI:1.47-132.7;p=0.02). No significant effects were noted for other healthcare outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of expected association between area deprivation and healthcare outcomes in some communities may be explained by the presence of effect modifiers. IMPLICATIONS: Understanding existing effect modifiers for area deprivation in local communities that delivery systems serve can inform targeted quality improvement. These factors should also be considered when comparing delivery system performance for reimbursement and in population health management.

Leveraging geotagged Twitter data to examine neighborhood happiness, diet, and physical activity.

OBJECTIVES: Using publicly available, geotagged Twitter data, we created neighborhood indicators for happiness, food and physical activity for three large counties: Salt Lake, San Francisco and New York. METHODS: We utilize 2.8 million tweets collected between February-August 2015 in our analysis. Geo-coordinates of where tweets were sent allow us to spatially join them to 2010 census tract locations. We implemented quality control checks and tested associations between Twitter-derived variables and sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: For a random subset of tweets, manually labeled tweets and algorithm labeled tweets had excellent levels of agreement: 73% for happiness; 83% for food, and 85% for physical activity. Happy tweets, healthy food references, and physical activity references were less frequent in census tracts with greater economic disadvantage and higher proportions of racial/ethnic minorities and youths. CONCLUSIONS: Social media can be leveraged to provide greater understanding of the well-being and health behaviors of communities-information that has been previously difficult and expensive to obtain consistently across geographies. More open access neighborhood data can enable better design of programs and policies addressing social determinants of health.

Drinking water infrastructure and environmental disparities: evidence and methodological considerations.

Potable drinking water is essential to public health; however, few studies have investigated income or racial disparities in water infrastructure or drinking water quality. There were many case reports documenting a lack of piped water or serious water quality problems in low income and minority communities, including tribal lands, Alaskan Native villages, colonias along the United States-Mexico border, and small communities in agricultural areas. Only 3 studies compared the demographic characteristics of communities by the quality of their drinking water, and the results were mixed in these studies. Further assessments were hampered by difficulties linking specific water systems to the sociodemographic characteristics of communities, as well as little information about how well water systems operated and the effectiveness of governmental oversight.

Proximal and distal determinants of access to health care among Hispanics in El Paso County, Texas.

In the United States, having health insurance is an important determinant of health care access and individual health outcomes. Nationwide, a significant proportion of the population does not have health insurance. Hispanics, in particular, are less likely than non-Hispanics to have insurance. A framework was established to examine the relationships between the determinants of insurance coverage and health care affordability in El Paso County, Texas. Data from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to examine the relationships described by this framework. The sample included 653 adults, of those 477 self-identified as Hispanic or Latino. In El Paso County, almost half of adult Hispanics lack any type of health insurance coverage, three times the rate of non-Hispanics. Among Hispanics, the lack of health insurance was strongly associated with reduced affordability of health care. Employment status, income, and age were found to have significant associations with insurance coverage and health care affordability. Sex and education level were relevant, yet distal determinants of these outcomes. Ongoing conversations about health care reform should take into account the patterns of coverage within the Hispanic population. Knowing how economic and social factors affect coverage is necessary to inform policy that can effectively alleviate disparities experienced by Hispanics.

Workgroup report: Drinking-water nitrate and health--recent findings and research needs.

Human alteration of the nitrogen cycle has resulted in steadily accumulating nitrate in our water resources. The U.S. maximum contaminant level and World Health Organization guidelines for nitrate in drinking water were promulgated to protect infants from developing methemoglobinemia, an acute condition. Some scientists have recently suggested that the regulatory limit for nitrate is overly conservative; however, they have not thoroughly considered chronic health outcomes. In August 2004, a symposium on drinking-water nitrate and health was held at the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology meeting to evaluate nitrate exposures and associated health effects in relation to the current regulatory limit. The contribution of drinking-water nitrate toward endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds was evaluated with a focus toward identifying subpopulations with increased rates of nitrosation. Adverse health effects may be the result of a complex interaction of the amount of nitrate ingested, the concomitant ingestion of nitrosation cofactors and precursors, and specific medical conditions that increase nitrosation. Workshop participants concluded that more experimental studies are needed and that a particularly fruitful approach may be to conduct epidemiologic studies among susceptible subgroups with increased endogenous nitrosation. The few epidemiologic studies that have evaluated intake of nitrosation precursors and/or nitrosation inhibitors have observed elevated risks for colon cancer and neural tube defects associated with drinking-water nitrate concentrations below the regulatory limit. The role of drinking-water nitrate exposure as a risk factor for specific cancers, reproductive outcomes, and other chronic health effects must be studied more thoroughly before changes to the regulatory level for nitrate in drinking water can be considered.