Modeling cost-effectiveness of risk-based bovine tuberculosis surveillance in Minnesota.

In the United States, slaughter surveillance combined with other measures has effectively maintained a very low prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). However, bTB continues to be sporadically detected, causing substantial economic burden to the government and cattle producers. To detect the infection earlier and reduce sudden economic losses, additional risk-based surveillance of live animals might be more cost-effective than slaughter surveillance alone to detect and prevent bTB infection. The objective of this study was to evaluate alternative risk-based surveillance strategies targeting high-risk herds to complement slaughter surveillance in a region with very low bTB prevalence. We developed an integrated within- and between-herd bTB transmission model with simulated premises-level cattle movements among beef and dairy herds in Minnesota for 10 years. We constructed ten risk-based surveillance strategies for beef herds and dairy herds, and predicted the epidemiological outcomes and costs for each strategy in combination with slaughter surveillance. Our models showed that slaughter surveillance alone resulted in low risk of between-herd transmission with typically small outbreak sizes, and also cost less compared to alternative risk-based surveillance measures. However, risk-based surveillance strategies could reduce the time to detect infection and the time to reach disease freedom by up to 9 months. At a higher initial prevalence, alternative risk-based surveillance could reduce the number of infected herds and shorten the time to disease freedom by almost 3 years (34-35 months). Our findings suggest that risk-based surveillance could detect infection more quickly and allow affected regions to reach disease freedom faster. If the bTB status of the affected regions changes after an outbreak happens, the reduced time to disease freedom could reduce the economic impact on the affected region.

Global trends in infectious diseases of swine.

Pork accounts for more than one-third of meat produced worldwide and is an important component of global food security, agricultural economies, and trade. Infectious diseases are among the primary constraints to swine production, and the globalization of the swine industry has contributed to the emergence and spread of pathogens. Despite the importance of infectious diseases to animal health and the stability and productivity of the global swine industry, pathogens of swine have never been reviewed at a global scale. Here, we build a holistic global picture of research on swine pathogens to enhance preparedness and understand patterns of emergence and spread. By conducting a scoping review of more than 57,000 publications across 50 years, we identify priority pathogens globally and regionally, and characterize geographic and temporal trends in research priorities. Of the 40 identified pathogens, publication rates for eight pathogens increased faster than overall trends, suggesting that these pathogens may be emerging or constitute an increasing threat. We also compared regional patterns of pathogen prioritization in the context of policy differences, history of outbreaks, and differing swine health challenges faced in regions where swine production has become more industrialized. We documented a general increasing trend in importance of zoonotic pathogens and show that structural changes in the industry related to intensive swine production shift pathogen prioritization. Multinational collaboration networks were strongly shaped by region, colonial ties, and pig trade networks. This review represents the most comprehensive overview of research on swine infectious diseases to date.

Linking social and spatial networks to viral community phylogenetics reveals subtype-specific transmission dynamics in African lions.

Heterogeneity within pathogen species can have important consequences for how pathogens transmit across landscapes; however, discerning different transmission routes is challenging. Here, we apply both phylodynamic and phylogenetic community ecology techniques to examine the consequences of pathogen heterogeneity on transmission by assessing subtype-specific transmission pathways in a social carnivore. We use comprehensive social and spatial network data to examine transmission pathways for three subtypes of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIVPle ) in African lions (Panthera leo) at multiple scales in the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We used FIVPle molecular data to examine the role of social organization and lion density in shaping transmission pathways and tested to what extent vertical (i.e., father- and/or mother-offspring relationships) or horizontal (between unrelated individuals) transmission underpinned these patterns for each subtype. Using the same data, we constructed subtype-specific FIVPle co-occurrence networks and assessed what combination of social networks, spatial networks or co-infection best structured the FIVPle network. While social organization (i.e., pride) was an important component of FIVPle transmission pathways at all scales, we find that FIVPle subtypes exhibited different transmission pathways at within- and between-pride scales. A combination of social and spatial networks, coupled with consideration of subtype co-infection, was likely to be important for FIVPle transmission for the two major subtypes, but the relative contribution of each factor was strongly subtype-specific. Our study provides evidence that pathogen heterogeneity is important in understanding pathogen transmission, which could have consequences for how endemic pathogens are managed. Furthermore, we demonstrate that community phylogenetic ecology coupled with phylodynamic techniques can reveal insights into the differential evolutionary pressures acting on virus subtypes, which can manifest into landscape-level effects.