Optimization of hepatitis C virus screening strategies by birth cohort in Italy.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cost-effective screening strategies are needed to make hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination a reality. We determined if birth cohort screening is cost-effective in Italy. METHODS: A model was developed to quantify screening and healthcare costs associated with HCV. The model-estimated prevalence of undiagnosed HCV was used to calculate the antibody screens needed annually, with a €25 000 cost-effectiveness threshold. Outcomes were assessed under the status quo and a scenario that met the World Health Organization's targets for elimination of HCV. The elimination scenario was assessed under five screening strategies. RESULTS: A graduated birth cohort screening strategy (graduated screening 1: 1968-1987 birth cohorts, then expanding to 1948-1967 cohorts) was the least costly. This strategy would gain approximately 144 000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) by 2031 and result in an 89.3% reduction in HCV cases, compared to an 89.6%, 89.0%, 89.7% and 88.7% reduction for inversed graduated screening, 1948-77 birth cohort, 1958-77 birth cohort and universal screening, respectively. Graduated screening 1 yielded the lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3552 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: In Italy, a graduated screening scenario is the most cost-effective strategy. Other countries could consider a similar birth cohort approach when developing HCV screening strategies.

Economic Consequences of Investing in Anti-HCV Antiviral Treatment from the Italian NHS Perspective: A Real-World-Based Analysis of PITER Data.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the cost consequence of Italian National Health System (NHS) investment in direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy according to hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment access policies in Italy. METHODS: A multistate, 20-year time horizon Markov model of HCV liver disease progression was developed. Fibrosis stage, age and genotype distributions were derived from the Italian Platform for the Study of Viral Hepatitis Therapies (PITER) cohort. The treatment efficacy, disease progression probabilities and direct costs in each health state were obtained from the literature. The break-even point in time (BPT) was defined as the period of time required for the cumulative costs saved to recover the Italian NHS investment in DAA treatment. Three different PITER enrolment periods, which covered the full DAA access evolution in Italy, were considered. RESULTS: The disease stages of 2657 patients who consecutively underwent DAA therapy from January 2015 to December 2017 at 30 PITER clinical centres were standardized for 1000 patients. The investment in DAAs was considered to equal €25 million, €15 million, and €9 million in 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. For patients treated in 2015, the BPT was not achieved, because of the disease severity of the treated patients and high DAA prices. For 2016 and 2017, the estimated BPTs were 6.6 and 6.2 years, respectively. The total cost savings after 20 years were €50.13 and €55.50 million for 1000 patients treated in 2016 and 2017, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study may be a useful tool for public decision makers to understand how HCV clinical and epidemiological profiles influence the economic burden of HCV.

Economic Evaluation of the Hepatitis C Virus Treatment Extension to Early-Stage Fibrosis Patients: Evidence from the PITER Real-World Cohort.

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis of two planning strategies of the second-generation direct-acting antiviral interferon-free regimens for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus infection. METHODS: A lifetime multicohort model comprised 8125 real-life patients enrolled in the PITER (Italian platform for the study of viral hepatitis) registry, implemented by the ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanità). Two treatment planning strategies were compared: 1) policy 1-treat all patients regardless of the stage of fibrosis (F0-F4) with second-generation direct-acting antivirals and 2) policy 2-treat patients at F3/F4 stage and those who are prioritized by the scientific guidelines first, and the remaining patients when they reach the F3 stage. Clinical outcomes and costs were evaluated by using a lifetime horizon Markov model and adopting the third-party payer perspective. Health outcomes were expressed in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). A sensitivity analysis was run to explore first- and second-order uncertainty and heterogeneity. An expected value of perfect information analysis was also conducted. RESULTS: Policy 1 exhibits an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €8,775/QALY gained and remains less than €30,000/QALY in 94% of realizations produced by the Monte-Carlo simulation. Such a proportion increases to 97% when adopting a threshold of €40,000/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Moving from the urgency criterion to evidence-based escalating strategies when prioritizing the access to new anti-hepatitis C virus treatments is a good investment in health, whose affordability should be explored through context-specific budget impact analyses.

Forecasting Hepatitis C liver disease burden on real-life data. Does the hidden iceberg matter to reach the elimination goals?

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Advances in direct-acting antiviral treatment of HCV have reinvigorated public health initiatives aimed at identifying affected individuals. We evaluated the possible impact of only diagnosed and linked-to-care individuals on overall HCV burden estimates and identified a possible strategy to achieve the WHO targets by 2030. METHODS: Using a modelling approach grounded in Italian real-life data of diagnosed and treated patients, different linkage-to-care scenarios were built to evaluate potential strategies in achieving the HCV elimination goals. RESULTS: Under the 40% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic burden would decline (60%); however, eligible patients to treat will be depleted by 2025. Increased case finding through a targeted screening strategy in 1948-1978 birth cohorts could supplement the pool of diagnosed patients by finding 75% of F0-F3 cases. Under the 60% linked-to-care scenario, viraemic infections would decline by 70% by 2030 but the patients eligible for treatment will run out by 2028. If treatment is to be maintained, a screening strategy focusing on 1958-1978 birth cohorts could capture 55% of F0-F3 individuals. Under the 80% linked-to-care scenario, screening limited in 1968-1978 birth cohorts could sustain treatment at levels required to achieve the HCV elimination goals. CONCLUSION: In Italy, which is an HCV endemic country, the eligible pool of patients to treat will run out between 2025 and 2028. To maintain the treatment rate and achieve the HCV elimination goals, increased case finding in targeted, high prevalence groups is required.

Modeling cost-effectiveness and health gains of a "universal" versus "prioritized" hepatitis C virus treatment policy in a real-life cohort.

We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two alternative direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment policies in a real-life cohort of hepatitis C virus-infected patients: policy 1, "universal," treat all patients, regardless of fibrosis stage; policy 2, treat only "prioritized" patients, delay treatment of the remaining patients until reaching stage F3. A liver disease progression Markov model, which used a lifetime horizon and health care system perspective, was applied to the PITER cohort (representative of Italian hepatitis C virus-infected patients in care). Specifically, 8,125 patients naive to DAA treatment, without clinical, sociodemographic, or insurance restrictions, were used to evaluate the policies' cost-effectiveness. The patients' age and fibrosis stage, assumed DAA treatment cost of €15,000/patient, and the Italian liver disease costs were used to evaluate quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of policy 1 versus policy 2. To generalize the results, a European scenario analysis was performed, resampling the study population, using the mean European country-specific health states costs and mean treatment cost of €30,000. For the Italian base-case analysis, the cost-effective ICER obtained using policy 1 was €8,775/QALY. ICERs remained cost-effective in 94%-97% of the 10,000 probabilistic simulations. For the European treatment scenario the ICER obtained using policy 1 was €19,541.75/QALY. ICER was sensitive to variations in DAA costs, in the utility value of patients in fibrosis stages F0-F3 post-sustained virological response, and in the transition probabilities from F0 to F3. The ICERs decrease with decreasing DAA prices, becoming cost-saving for the base price (€15,000) discounts of at least 75% applied in patients with F0-F2 fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Extending hepatitis C virus treatment to patients in any fibrosis stage improves health outcomes and is cost-effective; cost-effectiveness significantly increases when lowering treatment prices in early fibrosis stages. (Hepatology 2017;66:1814-1825).

Beyond viral suppression of HIV - the new quality of life frontier.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Organization (WHO) adopted a new Global Health Sector Strategy on HIV for 2016-2021. It establishes 15 ambitious targets, including the '90-90-90' target calling on health systems to reduce under-diagnosis of HIV, treat a greater number of those diagnosed, and ensure that those being treated achieve viral suppression. DISCUSSION: The WHO strategy calls for person-centered chronic care for people living with HIV (PLHIV), implicitly acknowledging that viral suppression is not the ultimate goal of treatment. However, it stops short of providing an explicit target for health-related quality of life. It thus fails to take into account the needs of PLHIV who have achieved viral suppression but still must contend with other intense challenges such as serious non-communicable diseases, depression, anxiety, financial stress, and experiences of or apprehension about HIV-related discrimination. We propose adding a 'fourth 90' to the testing and treatment target: ensure that 90 % of people with viral load suppression have good health-related quality of life. The new target would expand the continuum-of-services paradigm beyond the existing endpoint of viral suppression. Good health-related quality of life for PLHIV entails attention to two domains: comorbidities and self-perceived quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Health systems everywhere need to become more integrated and more people-centered to successfully meet the needs of virally suppressed PLHIV. By doing so, these systems can better meet the needs of all of their constituents - regardless of HIV status - in an era when many populations worldwide are living much longer with multiple comorbidities.

Dynamic NAD(P)H post-synaptic autofluorescence signals for the assessment of mitochondrial function in a neurodegenerative disease: monitoring the primary motor cortex of G93A mice, an amyotrophic lateral sclerosis model.

Abnormal mitochondrial function was reported in patients and models for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). It is therefore important to set up sensitive tools for the monitoring of active agents that enhance energy metabolism delay onset, and extend lifespan of transgenic G93A-SOD1 ALS mice. In this report, primary motor cortex slices from G93A mice at different stages of disease were studied, using NAD(P)H autofluorescence post-synaptic signals following ultraviolet stimuli, as a probe to evaluate mitochondrial function. We observed consistent age-related alterations of responses in G93A primary motor cortex slices versus controls. We conclude that NAD(P)H autofluorescence post-synaptic signal is a highly sensitive real-time technique to detect mitochondrial function failure in primary cortex from living tissues.

Inequalities in health: access to treatment for HIV/AIDS.

The HIV infection represents a very clear example of the inequalities in access to health care between rich and poor countries: AIDS is a disease that the Western world can treat and the resource-limited countries cannot. In the world scenario a total of 5 million patients with HIV/AIDS who need treatment have no access to therapy: the estimated treatment coverage is 28% in Sub-Saharan Africa, 19% in Asia and only 14% in low and middle-income countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. A broad, multisectorial response at national and international levels is required to guarantee access to antiretroviral drugs for all people with HIV/AIDS who need them.