Validation of the Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four aging cohorts from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care.

BACKGROUND: As global aging accelerates, routinely assessing the functional status and morbidity burden of older patients becomes paramount. The aim of this study is to assess the validity of the comprehensive clinical and functional Health Assessment Tool (HAT) based on four cohorts of older adults (60 + years) from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care (SNAC) spanning urban, suburban, and rural areas. METHODS: The HAT integrates five health indicators (gait speed, global cognition, number of chronic diseases, and basic and instrumental activities of daily living), providing an individual-level score between 0 and 10. The tool was constructed using nominal response models, first separately for each cohort and then in a harmonized dataset. Outcomes included all-cause mortality over a maximum follow-up of 16 years and unplanned hospital admissions over a maximum of 3 years of follow-up. The predictive capacity was assessed through the area under the curve (AUC) using logistic regressions. For time to death, Cox regressions were performed, and Harrell's C-indices were reported. Results from the four cohorts were pooled using individual participant data meta-analysis and compared with those from the harmonized dataset. RESULTS: The HAT demonstrated high predictive capacity across all cohorts as well as in the harmonized dataset. In the harmonized dataset, the AUC was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81-0.87) for 1-year mortality, 0.81 (95% CI 0.80-0.83) for 3-year mortality, 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.82) for 5-year mortality, 0.69 (95% CI 0.67-0.70) for 1-year unplanned admissions, and 0.69 (95% CI 0.68-0.70) for 3-year unplanned admissions. The Harrell's C for time-to-death throughout 16 years of follow-up was 0.75 (95% CI 0.74-0.75). CONCLUSIONS: The HAT is a highly predictive, clinically intuitive, and externally valid instrument with potential for better addressing older adults' health needs and optimizing risk stratification at the population level.

Early growth, stress, and socioeconomic factors as predictors of the rate of multimorbidity accumulation across the life course: a longitudinal birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Early growth, stress, and socioeconomic factors are associated with future risk of individual chronic diseases. It is uncertain whether they also affect the rate of multimorbidity accumulation later in life. This study aimed to explore whether early life factors are associated with the rate at which chronic diseases are accumulated across older age. METHODS: In this national birth cohort study, we studied people born at Helsinki University Central Hospital, Helsinki, Finland between Jan 1, 1934, and Dec 31, 1944, who attended child welfare clinics in the city, and were living in Finland in 1971. Individuals who had died or emigrated from Finland before 1987 were excluded, alongside participants without any registry data and who died before the end of the registry follow-up on Dec 31, 2017. Early anthropometry, growth, wartime parental separation, and socioeconomic factors were recorded from birth, child welfare clinic, or school health-care records, and Finnish National Archives. International Classification of Diseases codes of diagnoses for chronic diseases were obtained from the Care Register for Health Care starting from 1987 (when participants were aged 42-53 years) until 2017. Linear mixed models were used to study the association between early-life factors and the rate of change in the number of chronic diseases over 10-year periods. FINDINGS: From Jan 1, 1934, to Dec 31, 2017, 11 689 people (6064 [51·9%] men and 5625 [48·1%] women) were included in the study. Individuals born to mothers younger than 25 years (ß 0·09; 95% CI 0·06-0·12), mothers with a BMI of 25-30 kg/m2 (0·08; 0·05-0·10), and mothers with a BMI more than 30 kg/m2 (0·26; 0·21-0·31) in late pregnancy accumulated chronic diseases faster than those born to older mothers (25-30 years) and those with a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2. Individuals with a birthweight less than 2·5 kg (0·17; 0·10-0·25) and those with a rapid growth in height and weight from birth until age 11 years accumulated chronic diseases faster during their life course. Additionally, paternal occupational class (manual workers vs upper-middle class 0·27; 0·23-0·30) and wartime parental separation (0·24; 0·19-0·29 for boys; 0·31; 0·25-0·36 for girls) were associated with a faster rate of chronic disease accumulation. INTERPRETATION: Our findings suggest that the foundation for accumulating chronic diseases is established early in life. Early interventions might be needed for vulnerable populations, including war evacuee children and children with lower socioeconomic status. FUNDING: Finska Läkaresällskapet, Liv och Hälsa rf, the Finnish Pediatric Research Foundation, and Folkhälsan Research Center. TRANSLATIONS: For the Finnish and Swedish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Recent developments in frailty identification, management, risk factors and prevention: A narrative review of leading journals in geriatrics and gerontology.

Frailty is an age-related clinical condition characterised by an increased susceptibility to stressors and an elevated risk of adverse outcomes such as mortality. In the light of global population ageing, the prevalence of frailty is expected to soar in coming decades. This narrative review provides critical insights into recent developments and emerging practices in frailty research regarding identification, management, risk factors, and prevention. We searched journals in the top two quartiles of geriatrics and gerontology (from Clarivate Journal Citation Reports) for articles published between 01 January 2018 and 20 December 2022. Several recent developments were identified, including new biomarkers and biomarker panels for frailty screening and diagnosis, using artificial intelligence to identify frailty, and investigating the altered response to medications by older adults with frailty. Other areas with novel developments included exercise (including technology-based exercise), multidimensional interventions, person-centred and integrated care, assistive technologies, analysis of frailty transitions, risk-factors, clinical guidelines, COVID-19, and potential future treatments. This review identified a strong need for the implementation and evaluation of cost-effective, community-based interventions to manage and prevent frailty. Our findings highlight the need to better identify and support older adults with frailty and involve those with frailty in shared decision-making regarding their care.

12-year evolution of multimorbidity patterns among older adults based on Hidden Markov Models.

BACKGROUND: The evolution of multimorbidity patterns during aging is still an under-researched area. We lack evidence concerning the time spent by older adults within one same multimorbidity pattern, and their transitional probability across different patterns when further chronic diseases arise. The aim of this study is to fill this gap by exploring multimorbidity patterns across decades of age in older adults, and longitudinal dynamics among these patterns. METHODS: Longitudinal study based on the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (SNAC-K) on adults ≥60 years (N=3,363). Hidden Markov Models were applied to model the temporal evolution of both multimorbidity patterns and individuals' transitions over a 12-year follow-up. FINDINGS: Within the study population (mean age 76.1 years, 66.6% female), 87.2% had ≥2 chronic conditions at baseline. Four longitudinal multimorbidity patterns were identified for each decade. Individuals in all decades showed the shortest permanence time in an Unspecific pattern lacking any overrepresented diseases (range: 4.6-10.9 years), but the pattern with the longest permanence time varied by age. Sexagenarians remained longest in the Psychiatric-endocrine and sensorial pattern (15.4 years); septuagenarians in the Neuro-vascular and skin-sensorial pattern (11.0 years); and octogenarians and beyond in the Neuro-sensorial pattern (8.9 years). Transition probabilities varied across decades, sexagenarians showing the highest levels of stability. INTERPRETATION: Our findings highlight the dynamism and heterogeneity underlying multimorbidity by quantifying the varying permanence times and transition probabilities across patterns in different decades. With increasing age, older adults experience decreasing stability and progressively shorter permanence time within one same multimorbidity pattern.

Primary care costs due to prodromal Alzheimer disease: a real-world study in patients with a 10-year or longer medical history.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate primary care costs of prodromal signs/symptoms of Alzheimer disease (AD), during a 10-year or longer period preceding AD diagnosis, in relation to costs cumulated in the general population for the same reasons. METHODS: Nested case-control study involving 1889 AD cases and 18,890 controls aged 60+ from the Italian primary care Health Search Database (HSD). AD incident cases were through the International Classification of Diseases, 9th edition. Costs related to drugs, diagnostic tests and specialist referrals triggered by prodromal AD signs and/or symptoms were quantified and compared with costs cumulated by non-AD counterparts. RESULTS: During the pre-diagnosis 10-year or longer period, prodromal signs and symptoms trigger diagnostic and therapeutic costs 55% higher than those cumulated in general population for the same clinical reasons. After accounting for patients' comorbidity and regional differences, the mean cost related to diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, and those related to specialist referrals, amounted to 854.1 €(SD: 630.6 €) in AD incident cases vs. 527.3 €(SD: 446.2) cumulated in patients not developing AD. CONCLUSION: Prodromal AD manifestations are associated with primary care costs that resulted higher than those cumulated in the general population aged 60+. It remains to be elucidated if earlier dementia diagnoses would be associated with reduced costs triggered by the same clinical signs and symptoms.

Health trajectories after age 60: the role of individual behaviors and the social context.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to detect health trajectories after age 60, and to explore to what extent individual and social factors may contribute to healthier aging. METHODS: Twelve-year health trajectories were identified in subjects from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (N=3108), integrating five indicators of disease, physical and cognitive function, and disability through nominal response models. Growth mixture models were applied to explore health trajectories in terms of rate and pattern of change. Baseline information about health-related behaviors and the social context was collected through standardized questionnaires. The strength of the associations was estimated using logistic regression, and their impact through population attributable fractions (PAF). RESULTS: Three trajectories were identified grouping 78%, 18%, and 4% of people with respectively increasing rates of health decline. Compared to the best trajectory, subjects in the middle and worst trajectories became functionally dependent 12.0 (95% CI: 11.4-12.6) and 12.1 (95% CI: 11.5-12.7) years earlier, respectively. Insufficient physical activity (OR: 3.38, 95% CI: 2.58-4.42), financial strain (OR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.77-4.30), <12 years education (OR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.14-2.04), low social connections (OR: 1.45, 95% CI: 1.09-1.94), low social participation (OR: 1.39, 95% CI: 1.06-1.83) and a body mass index ≥25 (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03-1.75) were associated with belonging to the middle/worst trajectories. The highest PAFs were observed for insufficient physical activity (27.1%), low education (19.3%) and low social participation (15.9%); a total PAF of 66.1% was obtained. CONCLUSIONS: Addressing the social determinants of health in its broadest sense, complementarily considering life-long factors belonging to the socioeconomic, psychosocial, and behavioral dimensions, should be central to any strategy aimed at fostering health in older age.

Medication Management in Frail Older People: Consensus Principles for Clinical Practice, Research, and Education.

Frailty is a geriatric condition associated with increased vulnerability to adverse drug events and medication-related harm. Existing clinical practice guidelines rarely provide medication management recommendations specific to frail older people. This report presents international consensus principles, generated by the Optimizing Geriatric Pharmacotherapy through Pharmacoepidemiology Network, related to medication management in frail older people. This consensus comprises 7 principles for clinical practice, 6 principles for research, and 4 principles for education. Principles for clinical practice include (1) perform medication reconciliation and maintain an up-to-date medication list; (2) assess and plan based on individual's capacity to self-manage medications; (3) ensure appropriate prescribing and deprescribing; (4) simplify medication regimens when appropriate to reduce unnecessary burden; (5) be alert to the contribution of medications to geriatric syndromes; (6) regularly review medication regimens to align with changing goals of care; and (7) facilitate multidisciplinary communication among patients, caregivers, and healthcare teams. Principles for research include (1) include frail older people in randomized controlled trials; (2) consider frailty status as an effect modifier; (3) ensure collection and reporting of outcome measures important in frailty; (4) assess impact of frailty on pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics; (5) encourage frailty research in under-researched settings; and (6) utilize routinely collected linked health data. Principles for education include (1) provide undergraduate and postgraduate education on frailty; (2) minimize low-value care related to medication management; (3) improve health and medication literacy; and (4) incorporate evidence in relation to frailty into clinical practice guidelines. These principles for clinical practice, research and education highlight different considerations for optimizing medication management in frail older people. These principles can be used in conjunction with existing best practice guidelines to help achieve optimal health outcomes for this vulnerable population. Implementation of the principles will require multidisciplinary collaboration between healthcare professionals, researchers, educators, organizational leaders, and policymakers.

COVID-19: risk accumulation among biologically and socially vulnerable older populations.

Emerging data show that the health and economic impacts of COVID-19 are being disproportionately borne by individuals who are not only biologically, but also socially vulnerable. Based on preliminary data from Sweden and other reports, in this paper we propose a conceptual framework whereby different factors related to biological and social vulnerability may explain the specific COVID-19 burden among older people. There is already some evidence showing large social disparities in the prevention, treatment, prognosis and/or long-term consequences of COVID-19. The remaining question is to what extent these affect older adults specifically. We provide the rationale to address this question with scientific methods and proper study designs, where the interplay between individuals' biomedical status and their social environment is the focus. Only through interdisciplinary research integrating biological, clinical and social data will we be able to provide new insights into the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and inform actions aimed at reducing older adults' vulnerability to COVID-19 or other similar pandemics in the future.

Social engagement in late life may attenuate the burden of depressive symptoms due to financial strain in childhood.

BACKGROUND: It remains poorly understood if childhood financial strain is associated with old-age depression and if active social life may mitigate this relationship. AIMS: To investigate the association between childhood financial strain and depressive symptoms during aging; to examine whether late-life social engagement modifies this association. METHOD: 2884 dementia-free individuals (aged 60+) from the Swedish National study of Aging and Care-Kungsholmen were clinically examined over a 15-year follow-up. Presence of childhood financial strain was ascertained at baseline. Depressive symptoms were repeatedly assessed with the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale. Social engagement comprised information on baseline social network and leisure activities. Linear, logistic and mixed-effect models estimated baseline and longitudinal associations accounting for sociodemographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors. RESULTS: Childhood financial strain was independently associated with a higher baseline level of depressive symptoms (ß = 0.37, 95%CI 0.10-0.65), but not with symptom change over time. Relative to those without financial strain and with active social engagement, depressive burden was increased in those without financial strain but with inactive social engagement (ß = 0.43, 95%CI: 0.15-0.71), and in those with both financial strain and inactive engagement (ß = 0.99, 95%CI: 0.59-1.40). Individuals with financial strain and active social engagement exhibited similar depressive burden as those without financial strain and with active social engagement. LIMITATIONS: Recall bias and reverse causality may affect study results, although sensitivity analyses suggest their limited effect. CONCLUSIONS: Early-life financial strain may be of lasting importance for old-age depressive symptoms. Active social engagement in late-life may mitigate this association.

Patterns of Multimorbidity in a Population-Based Cohort of Older People: Sociodemographic, Lifestyle, Clinical, and Functional Differences.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to identify clusters of older persons based on their multimorbidity patterns and to analyze differences among clusters according to sociodemographic, lifestyle, clinical, and functional characteristics. METHODS: We analyzed data from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen on 2,931 participants aged 60 years and older who had at least two chronic diseases. Participants were clustered by the fuzzy c-means cluster algorithm. A disease was considered to be associated with a given cluster when the observed/expected ratio was ≥2 or the exclusivity was ≥25%. RESULTS: Around half of the participants could be classified into five clinically meaningful clusters: respiratory and musculoskeletal diseases (RESP-MSK) 15.7%, eye diseases and cancer (EYE-CANCER) 10.7%, cognitive and sensory impairment (CNS-IMP) 10.6%, heart diseases (HEART) 9.3%, and psychiatric and respiratory diseases (PSY-RESP) 5.4%. Individuals in the CNS-IMP cluster were the oldest, with the worst function and more likely to live in a nursing home; those in the HEART cluster had the highest number of co-occurring diseases and drugs, and they exhibited the highest mean values of serum creatinine and C-reactive protein. The PSY-RESP cluster was associated with higher levels of alcoholism and neuroticism. The other half of the cohort was grouped in an unspecific cluster, which was characterized by gathering the youngest individuals, with the lowest number of co-occurring diseases, and the best functional and cognitive status. CONCLUSIONS: The identified multimorbidity patterns provide insight for setting targets for secondary and tertiary preventative interventions and for designing care pathways for multimorbid older people.

Geriatric Health Charts for Individual Assessment and Prediction of Care Needs: A Population-Based Prospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Geriatric health charts that are similar to pediatric growth charts could facilitate monitoring health changes and predicting care needs in older adults. We aimed to validate an existing composite score (Health Assessment Tool [HAT]) and provide provisional age-specific reference curves for the general older population. METHODS: Data came from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen (N = 3,363 participants aged 60 years and over examined clinically at baseline and 3 years later). HAT was validated by exploring its relationship with health indicators (logistic regression) and comparing its ability to predict care consumption with that of two of its components, morbidity and disability (receiver operating characteristic curve areas). A flowchart was developed to obtain individual-level HAT scores (nominal response method). Sex-specific health charts were derived by graphing seven percentile curves of age-related HAT change (logistic quantile regression). RESULTS: HAT scores above the age- and sex-specific median were related to good performance in chair-stand tests (odds ratio [OR] = 2.62, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.07-3.31), balance and grip tests (interaction balance grip test, OR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05-1.25), and good self-rated health (OR = 2.19, 95% CI: 1.77-2.71). Receiver operating characteristic curve areas (HAT vs number of chronic disorders) were formal care, 0.76 versus 0.58 (p value < .001); informal care, 0.74 versus 0.59 (p value < .001); hospital admission, 0.70 versus 0.66 (p value < .001); primary care visits, 0.71 versus 0.69 (p value > .05); and specialty care visits, 0.62 versus 0.65 (p value < .001). HAT consistently predicted medical and social care service use better than disability. CONCLUSIONS: HAT is a valid tool that predicts care consumption well and could be useful in developing geriatric health charts to better monitor health changes in older populations.

Comparing the prognostic value of geriatric health indicators: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The identification of individuals at increased risk of poor health-related outcomes is a priority. Geriatric research has proposed several indicators shown to be associated with these outcomes, but a head-to-head comparison of their predictive accuracy is still lacking. We therefore aimed to compare the accuracy of five geriatric health indicators in predicting different outcomes among older persons: frailty index (FI), frailty phenotype (FP), walking speed (WS), multimorbidity, and a summary score including clinical diagnoses, functioning, and disability (the Health Assessment Tool; HAT). METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, an ongoing longitudinal study including 3363 people aged 60+. To inspect the accuracy of geriatric health indicators, we employed areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the prediction of 3-year and 5-year mortality, 1-year and 3-year unplanned hospitalizations (1+), and contacts with healthcare providers in the 6 months before and after baseline evaluation (2+). RESULTS: FI, WS, and HAT showed the best accuracy in the prediction of mortality [AUC(95%CI) for 3-year mortality 0.84 (0.82-0.86), 0.85 (0.83-0.87), 0.87 (0.85-0.88) and AUC(95%CI) for 5-year mortality 0.84 (0.82-0.86), 0.85 (0.83-0.86), 0.86 (0.85-0.88), respectively]. Unplanned hospitalizations were better predicted by the FI [AUC(95%CI) 1-year 0.73 (0.71-0.76); 3-year 0.72 (0.70-0.73)] and HAT [AUC(95%CI) 1-year 0.73 (0.71-0.75); 3-year 0.71 (0.69-0.73)]. The most accurate predictor of multiple contacts with healthcare providers was multimorbidity [AUC(95%CI) 0.67 (0.65-0.68)]. Predictions were generally less accurate among younger individuals (< 78 years old). CONCLUSION: Specific geriatric health indicators predict clinical outcomes with different accuracy. Comprehensive indicators (HAT, FI, WS) perform better in predicting mortality and hospitalization. Multimorbidity exhibits the best accuracy in the prediction of multiple contacts with providers.

Polypharmacy in Home Care in Europe: Cross-Sectional Data from the IBenC Study.

BACKGROUND: Home care (HC) patients are characterized by a high level of complexity, which is reflected by the prevalence of multimorbidity and the correlated high drug consumption. This study assesses prevalence and factors associated with polypharmacy in a sample of HC patients in Europe. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis on 1873 HC patients from six European countries participating in the Identifying best practices for care-dependent elderly by Benchmarking Costs and outcomes of community care (IBenC) project. Data were collected using the interResident Assessment Instrument (interRAI) instrument for HC. Polypharmacy status was categorized into three groups: non-polypharmacy (0-4 drugs), polypharmacy (5-9 drugs), and excessive polypharmacy (≥ 10 drugs). Multinomial logistic regressions were used to identify variables associated with polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy. RESULTS: Polypharmacy was observed in 730 (39.0%) HC patients and excessive polypharmacy in 433 (23.1%). As compared with non-polypharmacy, excessive polypharmacy was directly associated with chronic disease but also with female sex (odds ratio [OR] 1.58; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17-2.13), pain (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.15-1.98), dyspnea (OR 1.37; 95% CI 1.01-1.89), and falls (OR 1.55; 95% CI 1.01-2.40). An inverse association with excessive polypharmacy was shown for age (OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.56-0.83). CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy and excessive polypharmacy are common among HC patients in Europe. Factors associated with polypharmacy status include not only co-morbidity but also specific symptoms and age.

Impact of hospitalization on modification of drug regimens: Results of the criteria to assess appropriate medication use among elderly complex patients study.

AIM: To assess the impact of hospitalization on modification of drug burden among elderly patients. METHODS: The present prospective cohort study was carried out in acute care hospitals in Italy. The difference in the number of drugs used before hospital admission and those prescribed at discharge was calculated. The prevalence of (i) any increase (1 or more drugs); and (ii) an increase >50% in the number of drugs from admission to discharge was calculated, and the factors associated with these conditions were identified. RESULTS: The mean age of 1082 participants was 81.2 ± 7.3 years and 606 were women (56.0%), an increase in the number of drugs (1 or more drugs) between admission and discharge was observed in 672 participants (62.1% of study sample) and an "increase >50%" was observed in 372 participants (34.3%). "Any increase" was inversely associated with age and the number of drugs used before hospitalization, and it was positively associated with length of stay and diagnoses, including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischemic heart disease and diabetes. "Increase >50%" was inversely associated with female sex, the number of drugs before hospitalization, involuntary loss of weight and intact cognitive status, and was positively associated with length of stay, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure and diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Not only disease, but also demographic factors (age and gender) and geriatric syndromes (weight loss and cognitive status) might influence pharmacological burden. These data might be useful in order to target interventions aimed at improving drug use and reducing iatrogenic illness. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2016; 16: 593-599.