Utility of the NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© tool and the Surprise Question as screening tools for early palliative care and to predict mortality in patients with advanced chronic conditions: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Surprise Question (SQ) identifies patients with palliative care needs. The NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© (NECPAL) tool combines the Surprise Question with additional clinical parameters for a more comprehensive assessment. The capacity of these screening tools to predict mortality is still unknown. AIM: To explore the predictive validity of the NECPAL and SQ to determine 12- to 24-month mortality. DESIGN: Longitudinal, prospective and observational cohort study. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Three primary care centres, one general hospital, one intermediate care centre, and four nursing homes. Population cohort with advanced chronic conditions and limited life prognosis. Patients were classified according to SQ and NECPAL criteria and followed for 24 months. RESULTS: Data available to assess 1059 of 1064 recruited patients (99.6%) at 12 and 24 months: 837 patients were SQ+ and 780 were NECPAL+. Mortality rates at 24 months were as follows: 44.6% (SQ+) versus 15.8% (SQ-) and 45.8% (NECPAL+) versus 18.3% (NECPAL-) ( p = 0.000). SQ+ and NECPAL+ identification was significantly correlated with 24-month mortality risk (hazard ratios: 2.719 and 2.398, respectively). Both tools were highly sensitive (91.4, CI: 88.7-94.1 and 87.5, CI: 84.3-90.7) with high negative predictive values (84.2, CI: 79.4-89.0 and 81.7, CI: 77.2-86.2), with low specificity and positive predictive value. The prognostic accuracy of SQ and NECPAL was 52.9% and 55.2%, respectively. The predictive validity was slightly better for NECPAL. CONCLUSION: SQ and NECPAL are valuable screening instruments to identify patients with limited life prognosis who may require palliative care. More research is needed to increase its prognostic utility in combination with other parameters.

Identifying patients with chronic conditions in need of palliative care in the general population: development of the NECPAL tool and preliminary prevalence rates in Catalonia.

Palliative care (PC) has focused on patients with cancer within specialist services. However, around 75% of the population in middle-income and high-income countries die of one or more chronic advanced diseases. Early identification of such patients in need of PC becomes crucial. In this feature article we describe the initial steps of the NECPAL (Necesidades Paliativas [Palliative Needs]) Programme. The focus is on development of the NECPAL tool to identify patients in need of PC; preliminary results of the NECPAL prevalence study, which assessed prevalence of advanced chronically ill patients within the population and all socio-health settings of Osona; and initial implementation of the NECPAL Programme in the region. As first measures of the Programme, we present the NECPAL tool. The main differences from the British reference tools on which NECPAL is based are highlighted. The preliminary results of the prevalence study show that 1.45% of the total population and 7.71% of the population aged over 65 are 'surprise question' positive, while 1.33% and 7.00%, respectively, are NECPAL positive, and surprise question positive with at least one additional positive parameter. More than 50% suffer from geriatric pluri-pathology conditions or dementia. The pilot phase of the Programme consists of developing sectorised policies to improve PC in three districts of Catalonia. The first steps to design and implement a Programme to improve PC for patients with chronic conditions with a public health and population-based approach are to identify these patients and to assess their prevalence in the healthcare system.