Childhood attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder: socioeconomic inequalities in symptoms, impact, diagnosis and medication.

BACKGROUND: Children from disadvantaged backgrounds are at greater risk of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD)-related symptoms, being diagnosed with ADHD, and being prescribed ADHD medications. We aimed to examine how inequalities manifest across the 'patient journey', from perceptions of impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, to the propensity to seek and receive a diagnosis and treatment. METHODS: We investigated four 'stages': (1) symptoms, (2) caregiver perception of impact, (3) diagnosis and (4) medication, in two data sets: UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS, analytic n ~ 9,000), with relevant (parent-reported) information on all four stages (until 14 years); and a population-wide 'administrative cohort', which includes symptoms (child health checks) and prescriptions (dispensing records), born in Scotland, 2010-2012 (analytic n ~ 100,000), until ~6 years. We described inequalities according to maternal occupational status, with percentages and relative indices of inequality (RII). RESULTS: The prevalence of ADHD symptoms and medication receipt was considerably higher in the least compared to the most advantaged children in the administrative cohort (RIIs of 5.9 [5.5-6.4] and 8.1 [4.2-15.6]) and the MCS (3.08 [2.68-3.55], 3.75 [2.21-6.36]). MCS analyses highlighted complexities between these two stages, however, those from least advantaged backgrounds, with ADHD symptoms, were the least likely to perceive impacts on daily life (15.7% vs. average 19.5%) and to progress from diagnosis to medication (44.1% vs. average 72.5%). CONCLUSIONS: Despite large inequalities in ADHD symptoms and medication, parents from the least advantaged backgrounds were less likely to report impacts of ADHD symptoms on daily life, and their children were less likely to have received medication postdiagnosis, highlighting how patient journeys differed according to socioeconomic circumstances.

Estimating the effects of preventive and weight-management interventions on the prevalence of childhood obesity in England: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The effects of the systematic delivery of treatments for obesity are unknown. We aimed to estimate the potential effects on the prevalence of childhood obesity of systematically offering preventive and treatment interventions to eligible children in England, based on weight or health status. METHODS: For this modelling study, we developed a cross-sectional simulation model of the child and young adult population in England using data from multiple years of the Health Survey of England conducted between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019. Individuals were assessed for eligibility via age, BMI, and medical complications. Weight status was defined based on clinical criteria used by the UK National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Published systematic reviews were used to estimate effect sizes for treatments, uptake, and completion for each weight-management tier. We used all available evidence, including evidence from studies that showed an unfavourable effect. We estimated the effects of two systematic approaches: a staged approach, in which children and young people were simultaneously given the most intensive treatment for which they were eligible, and a stepped approach, in which each management tier was applied sequentially, with additive effects. The primary outcomes were estimated prevalence of clinical obesity, defined as a BMI ≥98th centile on the UK90 growth chart, and difference in comparison with the estimated baseline prevalence. FINDINGS: 18 080 children and young people were included in the analytical sample. Baseline prevalence of clinical obesity was estimated to be 11·2% (95% CI 10·5 to 11·8) for children and young people aged 2-18 years. In modelling, we estimated absolute decreases in the prevalence of obesity of 0·9% (95% CI 0·1 to 1·8) for universal, preventive interventions; 0·2% (0·1 to 0·4) for interventions within a primary-care setting; 1·0% (0·1 to 2·1) for community and lifestyle interventions; 0·2% (0·0 to 0·4) for pharmaceutical interventions; and 0·4% (0·1 to 0·7) for surgical interventions. Staged care was estimated to result in an absolute decrease in the prevalence of obesity of 1·3% (-0·3 to 2·4) and stepped care was estimated to lead to an absolute decrease of 2·4% (0·1 to 4·8). INTERPRETATION: Although individual effect sizes for prevention and treatment interventions were small, when delivered at scale across England, these interventions have the potential to meaningfully contribute to reducing the prevalence of childhood obesity. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of universal school-based mindfulness training compared with normal school provision in reducing risk of mental health problems and promoting well-being in adolescence: the MYRIAD cluster randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews suggest school-based mindfulness training (SBMT) shows promise in promoting student mental health. OBJECTIVE: The My Resilience in Adolescence (MYRIAD) Trial evaluated the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of SBMT compared with teaching-as-usual (TAU). METHODS: MYRIAD was a parallel group, cluster-randomised controlled trial. Eighty-five eligible schools consented and were randomised 1:1 to TAU (43 schools, 4232 students) or SBMT (42 schools, 4144 students), stratified by school size, quality, type, deprivation and region. Schools and students (mean (SD); age range=12.2 (0.6); 11-14 years) were broadly UK population-representative. Forty-three schools (n=3678 pupils; 86.9%) delivering SBMT, and 41 schools (n=3572; 86.2%) delivering TAU, provided primary end-point data. SBMT comprised 10 lessons of psychoeducation and mindfulness practices. TAU comprised standard social-emotional teaching. Participant-level risk for depression, social-emotional-behavioural functioning and well-being at 1 year follow-up were the co-primary outcomes. Secondary and economic outcomes were included. FINDINGS: Analysis of 84 schools (n=8376 participants) found no evidence that SBMT was superior to TAU at 1 year. Standardised mean differences (intervention minus control) were: 0.005 (95% CI -0.05 to 0.06) for risk for depression; 0.02 (-0.02 to 0.07) for social-emotional-behavioural functioning; and 0.02 (-0.03 to 0.07) for well-being. SBMT had a high probability of cost-effectiveness (83%) at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life year. No intervention-related adverse events were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Findings do not support the superiority of SBMT over TAU in promoting mental health in adolescence. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: There is need to ask what works, for whom and how, as well as considering key contextual and implementation factors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current controlled trials ISRCTN86619085. This research was funded by the Wellcome Trust (WT104908/Z/14/Z and WT107496/Z/15/Z).

The impact on dietary outcomes of licensed and brand equity characters in marketing unhealthy foods to children: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Licensed and brand equity characters are used to target children in the marketing of products high in fat, salt, and sugar (HFSS), but the impact of characters on dietary outcomes is unclear. The primary aim of this review was to quantify the impact of both licensed and brand equity characters on children's dietary outcomes given that existing regulations often differentiates between these character types. We systematically searched eight interdisciplinary databases and included studies from 2009 onwards until August 2021, including all countries and languages. Participants were children under 16 years, exposure was marketing for HFSS product with a character, and the outcomes were dietary consumption, preference, or purchasing behaviors of HFSS products. Data allowed for meta-analysis of taste preferences. A total of 16 articles (including 20 studies) met the inclusion criteria, of which five were included in the meta-analysis. Under experimental conditions, the use of characters on HFSS packaging compared with HFSS packaging with no character was found to result in significantly higher taste preference for HFSS products (standardized mean difference on a 5-point scale 0.273; p < 0.001). Narrative findings supported this, with studies reporting impact of both character types on product preferences including food liking and snack choice. There was limited evidence on the impact on purchase behaviors and consumption. These findings are supportive of policies that limit the exposure of HFSS food marketing using characters to children.

Natural history of mental health competence from childhood to adolescence.

BACKGROUND: Mental health competence (MHC) involves psychosocial capabilities such as regulating emotions, interacting well with peers and caring for others, and predicts a range of health and social outcomes. This study examines the course of MHC from childhood to adolescence and patterning by gender and disadvantage, in Australian and UK contexts. METHODS: Data: Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (n=4983) and the Millennium Cohort Study (n=18 296). Measures: A measure capturing key aspects of MHC was derived summing items from the parent-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, assessed at 4-5 years, 6-7 years, 10-11 years and 14-15 years. Analysis: Proportions of children with high MHC (scores ≥23 of range 8-24) were estimated by age and country. Random-effects models were used to define MHC trajectories according to baseline MHC and change over time. Sociodemographic patterns were described. RESULTS: The prevalence of high MHC steadily increased from 4 years to 15 years (from 13.6% to 15.8% and 20.6% to 26.2% in Australia and the UK, respectively). Examination of trajectories revealed that pathways of some children diverge from this normative MHC progression. For example, 7% and 9% of children in Australia and the UK, respectively, had a low starting point and decreased further in MHC by mid-adolescence. At all ages, and over time, MHC was lower for boys compared with girls and for children from disadvantaged compared with advantaged family backgrounds. CONCLUSIONS: Approaches to promoting MHC require a sustained focus from the early years through to adolescence, with more intensive approaches likely needed to support disadvantaged groups and boys.

Modeling the impact of calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities in childhood obesity in the Southampton Women's Survey.

BACKGROUND: In the United Kingdom, rates of childhood obesity are high and inequalities in obesity have widened in recent years. Children with obesity face heightened risks of living with obesity as adults and suffering from associated morbidities. Addressing population prevalence and inequalities in childhood obesity is a key priority for public health policymakers in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Where randomized controlled trials are not possible, potential policy actions can be simulated using causal modeling techniques. OBJECTIVES: Using data from the Southampton Women's Survey (SWS), a cohort with high quality dietary and lifestyle data, the potential impact of policy-relevant calorie-reduction interventions on population prevalence and inequalities of childhood obesity was investigated. METHODS: Predicted probabilities of obesity (using UK90 cut-offs) at age 6-7 years were estimated from logistic marginal structural models adjusting for observed calorie consumption at age 3 years (using food diaries) and confounding. A series of policy-relevant intervention scenarios were modeled to simulate reductions in energy intake (differing in effectiveness, the targeting mechanisms, and level of uptake). RESULTS: At age 6-7 years, 8.3% of children were living with obesity, after accounting for observed energy intake and confounding. A universal intervention to lower median energy intake to the estimated average requirement (a 13% decrease), with an uptake of 75%, reduced obesity prevalence by 1% but relative and absolute inequalities remained broadly unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Simulated interventions substantially reduced population prevalence of obesity, which may be useful in informing policymakers.

Update to the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a mindfulness training programme in schools compared with normal school provision (MYRIAD): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: MYRIAD (My Resilience in Adolescence) is a superiority, parallel group, cluster randomised controlled trial designed to examine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a mindfulness training (MT) programme, compared with normal social and emotional learning (SEL) school provision to enhance mental health, social-emotional-behavioural functioning and well-being in adolescence. The original trial protocol was published in Trials (accessible at https://doi.org/10.1186/s13063-017-1917-4 ). This included recruitment in two cohorts, enabling the learning from the smaller first cohort to be incorporated in the second cohort. Here we describe final amendments to the study protocol and discuss their underlying rationale. METHODS: Four major changes were introduced into the study protocol: (1) there were changes in eligibility criteria, including a clearer operational definition to assess the degree of SEL implementation in schools, and also new criteria to avoid experimental contamination; (2) the number of schools and pupils that had to be recruited was increased based on what we learned in the first cohort; (3) some changes were made to the secondary outcome measures to improve their validity and ability to measure constructs of interest and to reduce the burden on school staff; and (4) the current Coronavirus Disease 2019 (SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19) pandemic both influences and makes it difficult to interpret the 2-year follow-up primary endpoint results, so we changed our primary endpoint to 1-year follow-up. DISCUSSION: These changes to the study protocol were approved by the Trial Management Group, Trial Steering Committee and Data and Ethics Monitoring Committees and improved the enrolment of participants and quality of measures. Furthermore, the change in the primary endpoint will give a more reliable answer to our primary question because it was collected prior to the COVID-19 pandemic in both cohort 1 and cohort 2. Nevertheless, the longer 2-year follow-up data will still be acquired, although this time-point will be now framed as a second major investigation to answer some new important questions presented by the combination of the pandemic and our study design. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials ISRCTN86619085 . Registered on 3 June 2016.

The Role of Schools in Early Adolescents' Mental Health: Findings From the MYRIAD Study.

OBJECTIVE: Recent studies suggest mental health in youths is deteriorating. The current policy in the United Kingdom emphasizes the role of schools for mental health promotion and prevention, but little data exist on what aspects of schools influence mental health in pupils. This study explored school-level influences on the mental health of young people in a large school-based sample from the United Kingdom. METHOD: Baseline data from a large cluster randomized controlled trial collected between 2016 and 2018 from mainstream secondary schools selected to be representative in relation to their quality rating, size, deprivation, mixed or single-sex pupil population, and country were analyzed. Participants were pupils in their first or second year of secondary school. The study assessed whether school-level factors were associated with pupil mental health. RESULTS: The study included 26,885 pupils (response rate = 90%; age range, 11‒14 years; 55% female) attending 85 schools in the United Kingdom. Schools accounted for 2.4% (95% CI: 2.0%‒2.8%; p < .0001) of the variation in psychopathology, 1.6% (95% CI: 1.2%‒2.1%; p < .0001) of depression, and 1.4% (95% CI: 1.0%‒1.7%; p < .0001) of well-being. Schools in urban locations, with a higher percentage of free school meals and of White British, were associated with poorer pupil mental health. A more positive school climate was associated with better mental health. CONCLUSION: School-level variables, primarily related to contextual factors, characteristics of pupil population, and school climate, explain a small but significant amount of variability in mental health of young people. This information might be used to identify schools that are in need of more resources to support mental health of young people. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: MYRIAD: My Resilience in Adolescence, a Study Examining the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of a Mindfulness Training Programme in Schools Compared With Normal School Provision; https://www.isrctn.com/; 86619085.

Sociodemographic profiles, educational attainment and physical activity associated with The Daily Mile™ registration in primary schools in England: a national cross-sectional linkage study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine primary school and local authority characteristics associated with registration for The Daily Mile (TDM), an active mile initiative aimed at increasing physical activity in children. DESIGN: A cross-sectional linkage study using routinely collected data. SETTING: All state-funded primary schools in England from 2012 to 2018 (n=15,815). RESULTS: 3,502 of all 15,815 (22.1%) state-funded primary schools in England were registered to do TDM, ranging from 16% in the East Midlands region to 31% in Inner London. Primary schools registered for TDM had larger mean pupil numbers compared with schools that had not registered (300 vs 269, respectively). There was a higher proportion of TDM-registered schools in urban areas compared with non-urban areas. There was local authority variation in the likelihood of school registration (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.094). After adjusting for school and local authority characteristics, schools located in a major urban conurbation (OR 1.46 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.71) urban vs rural) and schools with a higher proportion of disadvantaged pupils had higher odds of being registered for TDM (OR 1.16 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.33)). Area-based physical activity and schools' educational attainment were not significantly associated with registration to TDM. CONCLUSION: One in five primary schools in England has registered for TDM since 2012. TDM appears to be a wide-reaching school-based physical activity intervention that is reaching more disadvantaged primary school populations in urban areas where obesity prevalence is highest. TDM-registered schools include those with both high and low educational attainment and are in areas with high and low physical activity.

Inequalities in glycemic control in childhood onset type 2 diabetes in England and Wales-A national population-based longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Not much is known about glycaemic-control trajectories in childhood-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D). We investigated characteristics of children and young people (CYP) with T2D and inequalities in glycemic control. METHODS: We studied 747 CYP with T2D, <19 years of age in 2009-2016 (from the total population-based National Pediatric Diabetes Audit [>95% diabetes cases in England/Wales]). Linear mixed-effects modeling was used to assess socioeconomic and ethnic differences in longitudinal glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c ) trajectories during 4 years post-diagnosis (3326 HbA1c data points, mean 4.5 data points/subject). Self-identified ethnicity was grouped into six categories. Index of Multiple Deprivation (a small geographical area-level deprivation measure) was grouped into SES quintiles for analysis. RESULTS: Fifty-eight percent were non-White, 66% were female, and 41% were in the most disadvantaged SES quintile. Mean age and HbA1c at diagnosis were 13.4 years and 68 mmol/mol, respectively. Following an initial decrease between diagnosis and end of year 1 (-15.2 mmol/mol 95%CI, -19.2, -11.2), HbA1c trajectories increased between years 1 and 3 (10 mmol/mol, 7.6, 12.4), followed by slight gradual decrease subsequently (-1.6 mmol/mol, -2, -1.1). Compared to White CYP, Pakistani children had higher HbA1c at diagnosis (13.2 mmol/mol, 5.6-20.9). During follow-up, mixed-ethnicity and Pakistani CYP had poorer glycemic control. Compared to children in the most disadvantaged quintile, those in the most advantaged had lower HbA1c at diagnosis (-6.3 mmol, -12.6, -0.1). Differences by SES remained during follow-up. Mutual adjustment for SES and ethnicity did not substantially alter the above estimates. CONCLUSIONS: About two-thirds of children with childhood-onset T2D were non-White, female adolescents, just under half of whom live in the most disadvantaged areas of England and Wales. Additionally, there are substantial socioeconomic and ethnic inequalities in diabetes control.

Progress in adolescent health and wellbeing: tracking 12 headline indicators for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016.

BACKGROUND: Rapid demographic, epidemiological, and nutritional transitons have brought a pressing need to track progress in adolescent health. Here, we present country-level estimates of 12 headline indicators from the Lancet Commission on adolescent health and wellbeing, from 1990 to 2016. METHODS: Indicators included those of health outcomes (disability-adjusted life-years [DALYs] due to communicable, maternal, and nutritional diseases; injuries; and non-communicable diseases); health risks (tobacco smoking, binge drinking, overweight, and anaemia); and social determinants of health (adolescent fertility; completion of secondary education; not in education, employment, or training [NEET]; child marriage; and demand for contraception satisfied with modern methods). We drew data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016, International Labour Organisation, household surveys, and the Barro-Lee education dataset. FINDINGS: From 1990 to 2016, remarkable shifts in adolescent health occurred. A decrease in disease burden in many countries has been offset by population growth in countries with the poorest adolescent health profiles. Compared with 1990, an additional 250 million adolescents were living in multi-burden countries in 2016, where they face a heavy and complex burden of disease. The rapidity of nutritional transition is evident from the 324·1 million (18%) of 1·8 billion adolescents globally who were overweight or obese in 2016, an increase of 176·9 million compared with 1990, and the 430·7 million (24%) who had anaemia in 2016, an increase of 74·2 million compared with 1990. Child marriage remains common, with an estimated 66 million women aged 20-24 years married before age 18 years. Although gender-parity in secondary school completion exists globally, prevalence of NEET remains high for young women in multi-burden countries, suggesting few opportunities to enter the workforce in these settings. INTERPRETATION: Although disease burden has fallen in many settings, demographic shifts have heightened global inequalities. Global disease burden has changed little since 1990 and the prevalence of many adolescent health risks have increased. Health, education, and legal systems have not kept pace with shifting adolescent needs and demographic changes. Gender inequity remains a powerful driver of poor adolescent health in many countries. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Changes in health in the countries of the UK and 150 English Local Authority areas 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported national and regional Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for the UK. Because of substantial variation in health within the UK, action to improve it requires comparable estimates of disease burden and risks at country and local levels. The slowdown in the rate of improvement in life expectancy requires further investigation. We use GBD 2016 data on mortality, causes of death, and disability to analyse the burden of disease in the countries of the UK and within local authorities in England by deprivation quintile. METHODS: We extracted data from the GBD 2016 to estimate years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and attributable risks from 1990 to 2016 for England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, the UK, and 150 English Upper-Tier Local Authorities. We estimated the burden of disease by cause of death, condition, year, and sex. We analysed the association between burden of disease and socioeconomic deprivation using the Index of Multiple Deprivation. We present results for all 264 GBD causes of death combined and the leading 20 specific causes, and all 84 GBD risks or risk clusters combined and 17 specific risks or risk clusters. FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-adjusted YLLs in all UK countries in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, lung cancers, cerebrovascular disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Age-standardised rates of YLLs for all causes varied by two times between local areas in England according to levels of socioeconomic deprivation (from 14 274 per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval 12 791-15 875] in Blackpool to 6888 [6145-7739] in Wokingham). Some Upper-Tier Local Authorities, particularly those in London, did better than expected for their level of deprivation. Allowing for differences in age structure, more deprived Upper-Tier Local Authorities had higher attributable YLLs for most major risk factors in the GBD. The population attributable fractions for all-cause YLLs for individual major risk factors varied across Upper-Tier Local Authorities. Life expectancy and YLLs have improved more slowly since 2010 in all UK countries compared with 1990-2010. In nine of 150 Upper-Tier Local Authorities, YLLs increased after 2010. For attributable YLLs, the rate of improvement slowed most substantially for cardiovascular disease and breast, colorectal, and lung cancers, and showed little change for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Morbidity makes an increasing contribution to overall burden in the UK compared with mortality. The age-standardised UK DALY rate for low back and neck pain (1795 [1258-2356]) was higher than for ischaemic heart disease (1200 [1155-1246]) or lung cancer (660 [642-679]). The leading causes of ill health (measured through YLDs) in the UK in 2016 were low back and neck pain, skin and subcutaneous diseases, migraine, depressive disorders, and sense organ disease. Age-standardised YLD rates varied much less than equivalent YLL rates across the UK, which reflects the relative scarcity of local data on causes of ill health. INTERPRETATION: These estimates at local, regional, and national level will allow policy makers to match resources and priorities to levels of burden and risk factors. Improvement in YLLs and life expectancy slowed notably after 2010, particularly in cardiovascular disease and cancer, and targeted actions are needed if the rate of improvement is to recover. A targeted policy response is also required to address the increasing proportion of burden due to morbidity, such as musculoskeletal problems and depression. Improving the quality and completeness of available data on these causes is an essential component of this response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Public Health England.

Investigating equalisation of health inequalities during adolescence in four low-income and middle-income countries: an analysis of the Young Lives cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate if socioeconomic gradients in health reduce during adolescence (the equalisation hypothesis) in four low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). SETTING: Analysis of the Young Lives Study cohorts in Ethiopia, Peru, Vietnam and India. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3395 participants (across the four cohorts) aged 6-10 years at enrolment and followed up for 11 years. OUTCOMES MEASURED: Change in income-related health inequalities from mid-childhood to late adolescence. Socioeconomic status was determined by wealth index quartile. The health indicators included were self-reported health, injuries in the previous 4 years, presence of long-term health problems, low mood, alcohol use, overweight/obesity, thinness and stunting. The relative risk of each adverse health outcome between highest and lowest wealth index quartile were compared across four waves of the study within each country. RESULTS: We found steep socioeconomic gradients across multiple health indicators in all four countries. Socioeconomic gradients remained similar across all waves of the study, with no significant decrease during adolescence. CONCLUSION: We found no consistent evidence of equalisation for income-related health inequalities in youth in these LMIC. Socioeconomic gradients for health in these cohorts appear to persist and be equally damaging across the early life course and during adolescence.

Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets.

BACKGROUND: The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement. METHODS: We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0-19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals. RESULTS: UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1-4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1-4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1-4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1-4 years and 15-19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented. DISCUSSION: UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.

Cost-effectiveness of a community-delivered multicomponent intervention compared with enhanced standard care of obese adolescents: cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial (the HELP trial).

OBJECTIVE: To undertake a cost-utility analysis of a motivational multicomponent lifestyle-modification intervention in a community setting (the Healthy Eating Lifestyle Programme (HELP)) compared with enhanced standard care. DESIGN: Cost-utility analysis alongside a randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Community settings in Greater London, England. PARTICIPANTS: 174 young people with obesity aged 12-19 years. INTERVENTIONS: Intervention participants received 12 one-to-one sessions across 6 months, addressing lifestyle behaviours and focusing on motivation to change and self-esteem rather than weight change, delivered by trained graduate health workers in community settings. Control participants received a single 1-hour one-to-one nurse-delivered session providing didactic weight-management advice. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mean costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) per participant over a 1-year period using resource use data and utility values collected during the trial. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated and non-parametric bootstrapping was conducted to generate a cost-effectiveness acceptability curve (CEAC). RESULTS: Mean intervention costs per participant were £918 for HELP and £68 for enhanced standard care. There were no significant differences between the two groups in mean resource use per participant for any type of healthcare contact. Adjusted costs were significantly higher in the intervention group (mean incremental costs for HELP vs enhanced standard care £1003 (95% CI £837 to £1168)). There were no differences in adjusted QALYs between groups (mean QALYs gained 0.008 (95% CI -0.031 to 0.046)). The ICER of the HELP versus enhanced standard care was £120 630 per QALY gained. The CEAC shows that the probability that HELP was cost-effective relative to the enhanced standard care was 0.002 or 0.046, at a threshold of £20 000 or £30 000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: We did not find evidence that HELP was more effective than a single educational session in improving quality of life in a sample of adolescents with obesity. HELP was associated with higher costs, mainly due to the extra costs of delivering the intervention and therefore is not cost-effective. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN9984011.

Burden of child and adolescent obesity on health services in England.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the numbers of obese children and young people (CYP) eligible for assessment and management at each stage of the childhood obesity pathway in England. DESIGN: Pathway modelling study, operationalising the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance on childhood obesity management against national survey data. SETTING: Data on CYP aged 2-18 years from the Health Survey for England 2006 to 2013. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Clinical obesity (body mass index (BMI) >98th centile), extreme obesity (BMI ≥99.86th centile); family history of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes; obesity comorbidities defined as primary care detectable (hypertension, orthopaedic or mobility problems, bullying or psychological distress) or secondary care detectable (dyslipidaemia, hyperinsulinaemia, high glycated haemoglobin, abnormal liver function). RESULTS: 11.2% (1.22 million) of CYP in England were eligible for primary care assessment and for community lifestyle modification. 2.6% (n=283 500) CYP were estimated to be likely to attend primary care. 5.1% (n=556 000) were eligible for secondary care referral. Among those aged 13-18 years, 8.2% (n=309 000) were eligible for antiobesity drug therapy and 2.4% (90 500) of English CYP were eligible for bariatric surgery. CYP from the most deprived quintile were 1.5-fold to 3-fold more likely to be eligible for obesity management. CONCLUSIONS: There is a mismatch between population burden and available data on service use for obesity in CYP in England, particularly among deprived young people. There is a need for consistent evidence-based commissioning of services across the childhood obesity pathway based on population burden.

The impact of out-of-hospital models of care on paediatric emergency department presentations.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the potential impact of enhanced primary care and new out-of-hospital models (OOHMs) on emergency department (ED) presentations by children and young people (CYP). DESIGN: Observational study. PATIENTS & SETTING: Data collected prospectively on 3020 CYP 0-17.9 years from 6 London EDs during 14 days by 25 supernumerary clinicians. CYP with transient acute illness, exacerbation of long-term condition (LTC), complex LTC/disability and injury/trauma were considered manageable within OOHM. OOHMs assessed included nurse-led services, multispecialty community provider (MCP), primary and acute care system (PACS) plus current and enhanced primary care. MEASURES: Diagnosis, severity; record of investigations, management and outcome that occurred; objective assessment of clinical need and potential alternative management options/destinations. RESULTS: Of the patients 95.6% had diagnoses appropriate for OOHM. Most presentations required assessment by a clinician with skills in assessing illness (39.6%) or injuries (30.9%). One thousand two hundred and ninety-one (42.75%) required no investigations and 1007 (33.3%) were provided only with reassurance. Of the presentations 42.2% were judged to have been totally avoidable if the family had had better health education.Of the patients 26.1% were judged appropriate for current primary care (community pharmacy or general practice) with 31.5% appropriate for the combination of enhanced general practice and community pharmacy. Proportions suitable for new models were 14.1% for the nurse-led acute illness team, MCP 25.7%, GP federation CYP service 44.6%, comprehensive walk-in centre for CYP 64.3% and 75.5% for a PACS. CONCLUSIONS: High proportions of ED presentations by CYP could potentially be managed in new OOHMs or by enhancement of existing primary care.