Modeling freedom from progression for standard-risk medulloblastoma: a mathematical tumor control model with multiple modes of failure.

PURPOSE: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used to model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. RESULTS: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.

Estimated radiation pneumonitis risk after photon versus proton therapy alone or combined with chemotherapy for lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, radiation therapy plans are optimized without consideration of chemotherapy. Here, we model the risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP) in the presence of a possible interaction between chemotherapy and radiation dose distribution. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Three alternative treatment plans are compared in 18 non-small cell lung cancer patients previously treated with helical tomotherapy; the tomotherapy plan, an intensity modulated proton therapy plan (IMPT) and a three dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) plan. All plans are optimized without consideration of the chemotherapy effect. The effect of chemotherapy is modeled as an independent cell killing process using a uniform chemotherapy equivalent radiation dose (CERD) added to the entire organ at risk. We estimate the risk of grade 3 or higher RP (G3RP) using the critical volume model. RESULTS: The mean risk of clinical G3RP at zero CERD is 5% for tomotherapy (range: 1-18 %) and 14% for 3D-CRT (range 2-49%). When the CERD exceeds 9 Gy, however, the risk of RP with the tomotherapy plans become higher than the 3D-CRT plans. The IMPT plans are less toxic both at zero CERD (mean 2%, range 1-5%) and at CERD = 10 Gy (mean 7%, range 1-28%). Tomotherapy yields a lower risk of RP than 3D-CRT for 17/18 patients at zero CERD, but only for 7/18 patients at CERD = 10 Gy. IMPT gives the lowest risk of all plans for 17/18 patients at zero CERD and for all patients with CERD = 10 Gy. CONCLUSIONS: The low dose bath from highly conformal photon techniques may become relevant for lung toxicity when radiation is combined with cytotoxic chemotherapy as shown here. Proton therapy allows highly conformal delivery while minimizing the low dose bath potentially interacting with chemotherapy. Thus, intensive drug-radiation combinations could be an interesting indication for selecting patients for proton therapy. It is likely that the IMRT plans would perform better if the CERD was accounted for during optimization, but more clinical data is required to facilitate evidence-based plan optimization in the multi-modality setting.