Estimating the future cancer management costs attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada.

OBJECTIVES: An estimated 33-37% of incident cancers in Canada are attributable to modifiable risk factors. Interventions targeting these risk factors would minimize the substantial health and economic burdens Canadians face due to cancer. We estimate the future health and economic burden of cancer in Canada by incorporating data from the Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer (ComPARe) study into OncoSim, a web-based microsimulation tool. METHODS: Using the integrated OncoSim population attributable risk and population impact measures, we evaluated risk factor-targeted intervention scenarios implemented in 2020, assuming the targeted risk factor prevalence reduction would be achieved by 2032 with a 12-year latency period. RESULTS: We estimate that smoking will be the largest contributor to cancer-related costs, with a cost of CAD $44.4 billion between 2032 and 2044. An estimated CAD $3.3 billion of the cost could be avoided with a 30% reduction in smoking prevalence by 2022. Following smoking, the next highest cancer management costs are associated with inadequate physical activity and excess body weight, accounting for CAD $10.7 billion ($2.7 billion avoidable) and CAD $9.8 billion ($3.2 billion avoidable), respectively. Avoidable costs for other risk factors range from CAD $90 million to CAD $2.5 billion. CONCLUSION: Interventions targeting modifiable cancer risk factors could prevent a substantial number of incident cancer cases and billions of dollars in cancer management costs. With limited budgets and rising costs in cancer care in Canada, these simulation models and results are valuable for researchers and policymakers to inform decisions and prioritize and evaluate intervention programs.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIFS: Il est estimé que de 33 % à 37 % des cancers incidents au Canada sont imputables à des facteurs de risque modifiables. Des interventions ciblant ces facteurs de risque réduiraient le fardeau sanitaire et économique considérable du cancer dans la population canadienne. Nous avons estimé le futur fardeau sanitaire et économique du cancer au Canada en intégrant les données de l'étude ComPARe (Canadian Population Attributable Risk of Cancer) dans l'outil de microsimulation en ligne OncoSim. MéTHODE: À l'aide des indicateurs d'impact dans la population et du risque attribuable dans la population intégrés dans OncoSim, nous avons évalué des scénarios d'intervention mis en œuvre en 2020 axés sur les facteurs de risque, en partant de l'hypothèse que la réduction de la prévalence des facteurs de risque ciblés serait atteinte d'ici 2032 avec une période de latence de 12 ans. RéSULTATS: Nous estimons que le tabagisme sera le facteur qui contribuera le plus aux coûts du cancer, avec un coût de 44,4 milliards $ CA entre 2032 et 2044. Il est estimé qu'une part de 3,3 milliards $ CA de ce coût pourrait être évitée en réduisant de 30 % la prévalence du tabagisme d'ici 2022. Après le tabagisme, les coûts de prise en charge du cancer les plus élevés sont associés à l'inactivité physique et au surpoids, qui représentent respectivement 10,7 milliard $ CA (dont 2,7 milliards $ évitables) et 9,8 milliards $ CA (dont 3,2 milliards $ évitables). Les coûts évitables pour d'autres facteurs de risque vont de 90 millions $ CA à 2,5 milliards $ CA. CONCLUSION: Des interventions ciblant les facteurs de risque de cancer modifiables pourraient prévenir un nombre considérable de cas de cancers incidents et épargner des milliards de dollars en coûts de prise en charge du cancer. Avec les budgets serrés et la hausse des coûts des soins du cancer au Canada, ces modèles de simulation et leurs résultats permettent aux chercheurs et aux responsables des politiques d'éclairer les décisions et de hiérarchiser et d'évaluer les programmes d'intervention.

Merger mania: mergers and acquisitions in the generic drug sector from 1995 to 2016.

BACKGROUND: Drug shortages and increasing generic drug prices are associated with low levels of competition. Mergers and acquisitions impact the level of competition. Record merger and acquisition activity was reported for the pharmaceutical sector in 2014/15, yet information on mergers and acquisitions in the generic drug sector are absent from the literature. This information is necessary to understand if and how such mergers and acquisitions can be a factor in drug shortages and increasing prices. METHODS: Data on completed merger and acquisition deals that had a generic drug company being taken over (i.e. 'target') were extracted from Bloomberg Finance L.P. The number and announced value of deals are presented globally, for the United States, and globally excluding the United States annually from 1995 to 2016 in United States dollars. RESULTS: Generic drug companies comprised 9.3% of the value of all deals with pharmaceutical targets occurring from 1995 to 2016. Globally, in 1995 there were no deals, in 2014 there were 22 deals worth $1.86 billion, in 2015 there were 34 deals totalling $33.56 billion, and in 2016 there were 42 deals worth in excess of $44 billion. This substantial increase was partially attributed to Teva's 2016 acquisition of Allergan's generic drug business. The surge in mergers and acquisitions for 2015/16 was driven by deals in the United States, where they represented 89.7% of the dollar value of deals in those years. CONCLUSIONS: The recent blitz in mergers and acquisitions signals that the generic drug industry is undergoing a transformation, especially in the United States. This restructuring can negatively affect the level of competition that might impact prices and shortages for some products, emphasizing the importance of updating regulations and procurement policies.

Examining screening mammography participation among women aged 40 to 74.

OBJECTIVE: To examine participation in screening mammography among women aged 40 to 74 and identify which factors are associated with those women who participate in screening. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of the cross-sectional 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey. SETTING: Canada. PARTICIPANTS: A population-based national sample of 18 312 women aged 40 to 74. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Women's participation in screening mammography in the 2 years preceding the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey; women's preventive health activities (ie, having a regular doctor, a recent physical checkup, and a Papanicolaou test), which were adjusted for sociodemographic factors. RESULTS: Participation in recent screening mammography was highest among women aged 60 to 69 (70.3%), followed by those aged 50 to 59 (63.4%) and those aged 70 to 74 (58.4%). Almost one-third (31.4%) of women aged 40 to 49 had had a screening mammogram in the past 2 years. Having a regular doctor (odds ratio [OR] = 3.30, 95% CI 2.90 to 3.73), a physical checkup in the past year (OR = 3.06, 95% CI 2.30 to 4.08), or a Pap test in the past 3 years (OR = 3.47, 95% CI 3.18 to 3.79) more than tripled the odds that women had had a recent screening mammogram. CONCLUSION: Aside from age being a factor associated with women's participation in screening mammography, factors related to women's health care use (having a regular doctor, a recent physical checkup, and a recent Pap test) demonstrated a stronger association with women aged 40 to 74 having had recent mammograms. The association between women's participation in screening and their preventive health activities implies that the doctor's office is an appropriate venue for conversations regarding the potential benefits and harms of screening mammography.