Neonatal, Infant, and Child Mortality in India: Progress and Future Directions.

In India, considerable progress has been made in reducing child mortality rates. Despite this achievement, wide disparities persist across and socio-economic strata, and persistent challenges, such as malnutrition, poor sanitation, and lack of clean water. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the state of child health in India, examining key risk factors and causes of child mortality, assessing the coverage of child health interventions, and highlighting critical public health programs and policies. The authors also discuss future directions and recommendations for bolstering ongoing efforts to improve child health. These include state- and region-specific interventions, prioritizing social determinants of health, strengthening data systems, leveraging existing programs like the National Health Mission (NHM) and Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY), and the proposed Public Health Management Cadre (PHMC). The authors argue that reducing child mortality requires not only scaled-up interventions but a comprehensive approach that addresses all dimensions of health, from social determinants to system strengthening.

Estimating national, regional and provincial cost-effectiveness of introducing childhood 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in China: a modelling analysis.

Background: Although 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is available in China's private market, it has yet to be introduced into the National Immunization Programme (NIP) and is therefore not available to large parts of the population. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of including PCV13 in China's NIP at national and provincial levels. Methods: We adopted a decision-tree Markov model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of adding 3-dose PCV13 in the NIP compared to the status quo in the private market from a societal perspective. The model hypothesized a birth cohort for five years after vaccine introduction. Treatment costs and vaccine program costs were calculated from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and national insurance databases. Disease burden data, incidence rate ratios, and other parameters were derived from published and grey literature. Cases and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated at the provincial, regional, and national levels. One-way, scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore model uncertainty. Findings: At the national level, introducing PCV13 in the NIP was predicted to prevent approximately 4807 pneumococcal deaths (66% reduction) and 1,057,650 pneumococcal cases (17% reduction) in the first five years of the 2019 birth cohort. Under the assumed base case price of US$ 25 per dose in the NIP, PCV13 in the NIP was cost-effective nationally with ICER of US$ 5.222 per QALY gained, and was cost-effective in 17 and cost-saving in 4 of the 31 provinces compared to the status quo. One-way and scenario sensitivity analyses indicated robust results when varying all model parameters, and probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed a 98% probability of cost-effectiveness nationally. Interpretation: Our findings highlight the cost-effectiveness of introducing PCV13 in China's NIP. Provincial results supported subnational introduction of PCV13, and priority should be given to less socioeconomically developed provinces. Since vaccination cost is the most influential model parameter, efforts to improve PCV affordability after pooled procurement will benefit public health in a cost-effective manner. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Designing a Pro-Equity HPV Vaccine Delivery Program for Girls Who Have Dropped Out of School: Community Perspectives From Uttar Pradesh, India.

India experiences a substantial burden of cervical cancer and accounts for nearly one third of cervical cancer deaths worldwide. While human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have been introduced subnationally in some states, HPV has not yet been rolled out nationally. Given the target age group, schools are the most common delivery channel for HPV vaccines, but this fails to account for local girls who never attended or no longer attend school. We conducted a qualitative, design-informed, community-based study conducted in Uttar Pradesh, India. We assessed facilitators and barriers among out-of-school girls and proposed program characteristics to inform the design of pro-equity HPV vaccine delivery programs for out-of-school girls. Programs should improve parental knowledge of the risk of cervical cancer, engage vaccinated girls as vaccine champions, utilize varied media options for low-literacy populations, and ensure that HPV vaccine services are accessible and flexible to accommodate out-of-school girls. In areas with poor or irregular school attendance among adolescent girls, HPV vaccine coverage will remain suboptimal until programs can effectively address their needs and reach this priority population. Our findings present a meaningful opportunity for program planners to purposefully design HPV vaccination programs according to these parameters, rather than modifying existing programs to include HPV vaccine. Adolescent girls, their parents, and other community members should be involved in program design to ensure that the program can effectively meet the needs of adolescent girls who are not in school.

National and provincial impact and cost-effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine in China: a modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Globally, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) vaccine has substantially reduced the burden of Hib invasive disease. However, China remains the only country not to include Hib vaccine into its national immunization program (NIP), although it accounts for 11% of global Hib deaths. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of including Hib vaccine in China's NIP at the national and provincial levels. METHODS: Using a decision-tree Markov state transition model, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of Hib vaccine in the NIP compared to the status quo of Hib vaccine in the private market for the 2017 birth cohort. Treatment costs and vaccine program costs were calculated from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and national insurance databases. Epidemiological data and other model parameters were obtained from published literature. Cases and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were predicted by province. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore model uncertainty. RESULTS: Including Hib vaccine in the NIP was projected to prevent approximately 2700 deaths (93% reduction) and 235,700 cases of Hib disease (92% reduction) for the 2017 birth cohort at the national level. Hib vaccine was cost-effective nationally (US$ 8001 per QALY gained) compared to the GDP per capita and cost-effective in 15 of 31 provinces. One-way and scenario sensitivity analyses indicated results were robust when varying model parameters, and in probabilistic sensitivity analysis, Hib vaccine had a 64% probability of being cost-effective nationally. CONCLUSION: Introducing Hib vaccine in China's NIP is cost-effective nationally and in many provinces. Less socioeconomically developed provinces with high Hib disease burden and low access to Hib vaccine in the current private market, such as those in the west region, would benefit the most from adding Hib vaccine to the NIP. In the absence of a national policy decision on Hib vaccine, this analysis provides evidence for provincial governments to include Hib vaccine into local immunization programs to substantially reduce disease burden and treatment costs.

Change in full immunization inequalities in Indian children 12-23 months: an analysis of household survey data.

BACKGROUND: India has made substantial progress in improving child health in recent years. However, the country continues to account for a large number of vaccine preventable child deaths. We estimated wealth-related full immunization inequalities in India. We also calculated the degree to which predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors contribute to these inequalities. METHODS: We used data from the two rounds of a large nationally representative survey done in all states in India in 2005-06 (n = 9582) and 2015-16 (n = 49,284). Full immunization status was defined as three doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccine, three doses of polio vaccine, one dose of Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine, and one dose of measles vaccine in children 12-23 months. We compared full immunization coverage by wealth quintiles using descriptive statistics. We calculated concentration indices for full immunization coverage at the national and state levels. Using predisposing, reinforcing, and enabling factors associated with full immunization status identified from the literature, we applied a generalized linear model (GLM) framework with a binomial distribution and an identity link to decompose the concentration index. RESULTS: National full immunization coverage increased from 43.65% in 2005-06 to 62.46% in 2015-16. Overall, full immunization coverage in both 2005-06 and 2015-16 in all states was lowest in children from poorer households and improved with increasing socioeconomic status. The national concentration index decreased from 0.36 to 0.13 between the two study periods, indicating a reduction in poor-rich inequality. Similar reductions were observed for most states, except in states where inequalities were already minimal (i.e., Tamil Nadu) and in some northeastern states (i.e., Meghalaya and Manipur). In 2005-06, the contributors to wealth-related full immunization inequality were antenatal care, maternal education, and socioeconomic status. The same factors contributed to full immunization inequality in 2015-16 in addition to difficulty reaching a health facility. CONCLUSIONS: Immunization coverage and wealth-related equality have improved nationally and in most states over the last decade in India. Targeted, context-specific interventions could help address overall wealth-related full immunization inequalities. Intensified government efforts could help in this regard, particularly in high-focus states where child mortality remains high.

Characterizing mothers and children at risk of being under-immunized in India: A latent class analysis approach.

OBJECTIVES: While India has made substantial progress in introducing new vaccines and scaling up immunization coverage, inequities persist sub-nationally. This study was performed to investigate the risk of under-immunization based on class membership and to identify heterogeneous classes based on sociodemographic characteristics in pediatric and maternal populations in India through latent class analysis. METHODS: Data from the most recent National Family Health Survey conducted in 2015-2016 were used. Latent class analysis was used to model immunization coverage in children aged 12-23 months and mothers, and to identify subgroups to characterize those at risk of not being immunized. RESULTS: Patterns of sociodemographic characteristics were found to contribute to non-immunization or under-immunization among pediatric and maternal populations in India. Individuals who fit into one of three categories were identified in both populations: those at high, medium, and lower risk of not being immunized. Lower socioeconomic status, lack of antenatal care, and lower maternal education put individuals at higher risk of not being immunized with routine childhood vaccines and maternal tetanus toxoid. CONCLUSIONS: Predisposing risk factors can persistently impact immunization status despite improvements in immunization access in India. Tailored programmatic interventions should be developed to improve immunization coverage among those children and mothers who are at highest risk of being under-immunized or not immunized.

Expanding the use of community health workers in urban settings: a potential strategy for progress towards universal health coverage.

Community health worker (CHW) programmes have been used for decades to improve access to health services in rural settings in low- and middle-income countries. With more than half of the world's population currently living in urban areas and this population expected to grow, equitable access to health services in urban areas is critically important. To understand the extent to which CHW programmes have been successfully deployed in low-income urban settings, we conducted a review of the literature between 2000 and 2018 to identify studies evaluating and describing CHW programmes implemented fully or partially in urban or peri-urban settings. We identified 32 peer-reviewed articles that met our inclusion criteria. Benefits have been documented in several urban settings in low- and middle-income countries including those to address TB/HIV, child health, maternal health and non-communicable diseases through a variety of study designs.

National, regional, and state-level all-cause and cause-specific under-5 mortality in India in 2000-15: a systematic analysis with implications for the Sustainable Development Goals.

BACKGROUND: India had the largest number of under-5 deaths of all countries in 2015, with substantial subnational disparities. We estimated national and subnational all-cause and cause-specific mortality among children younger than 5 years annually in 2000-15 in India to understand progress made and to consider implications for achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) child survival targets. METHODS: We used a multicause model to estimate cause-specific mortality proportions in neonates and children aged 1-59 months at the state level, with causes of death grouped into pneumonia, diarrhoea, meningitis, injury, measles, congenital abnormalities, preterm birth complications, intrapartum-related events, and other causes. AIDS and malaria were estimated separately. The model was based on verbal autopsy studies representing more than 100 000 neonatal deaths globally and 16 962 deaths among children aged 1-59 months at the subnational level in India. By applying these proportions to all-cause deaths by state, we estimated cause-specific numbers of deaths and mortality rates at the state, regional, and national levels. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 25·121 million livebirths in India and 1·201 million under-5 deaths (under-5 mortality rate 47·81 per 1000 livebirths). 0·696 million (57·9%) of these deaths occurred in neonates. There were disparities in child mortality across states (from 9·7 deaths [Goa] to 73·1 deaths [Assam] per 1000 livebirths) and regions (from 29·7 deaths [the south] to 63·8 deaths [the northeast] per 1000 livebirths). Overall, the leading causes of under-5 deaths were preterm birth complications (0·330 million [95% uncertainty range 0·279-0·367]; 27·5% of under-5 deaths), pneumonia (0·191 million [0·168-0·219]; 15·9%), and intrapartum-related events (0·139 million [0·116-0·165]; 11·6%), with cause-of-death distributions varying across states and regions. In states with very high under-5 mortality, infectious-disease-related causes (pneumonia and diarrhoea) were among the three leading causes, whereas the three leading causes were all non-communicable in states with very low mortality. Most states had a slower decline in neonatal mortality than in mortality among children aged 1-59 months. Ten major states must accelerate progress to achieve the SDG under-5 mortality target, while 17 are not on track to meet the neonatal mortality target. INTERPRETATION: Efforts to reduce vaccine-preventable deaths and to reduce geographical disparities should continue to maintain progress achieved in 2000-15. Enhanced policies and programmes are needed to accelerate mortality reduction in high-burden states and among neonates to achieve the SDG child survival targets in India by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

National, regional, and state-level burden of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b disease in children in India: modelled estimates for 2000-15.

BACKGROUND: India accounts for a disproportionate burden of global childhood illnesses. To inform policies and measure progress towards achieving child health targets, we estimated the annual national and state-specific childhood mortality and morbidity attributable to Streptococcus pneumoniae and Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) between 2000 and 2015. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used vaccine clinical trial data to estimate the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus and Hib. The proportion of meningitis deaths attributable to each pathogen was derived from pathogen-specific meningitis case fatality and bacterial meningitis case data from surveillance studies. We applied these proportions to modelled state-specific pneumonia and meningitis deaths from 2000 to 2015 prepared by the WHO Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation collaboration (WHO/MCEE) on the basis of verbal autopsy studies from India. The burden of clinical and severe pneumonia cases attributable to pneumococcus and Hib was ascertained with vaccine clinical trial data and state-specific all-cause pneumonia case estimates prepared by WHO/MCEE by use of risk factor prevalence data from India. Pathogen-specific meningitis cases were derived from state-level modelled pathogen-specific meningitis deaths and state-level meningitis case fatality estimates. Pneumococcal and Hib morbidity due to non-pneumonia, non-meningitis (NPNM) invasive syndromes were derived by applying the ratio of pathogen-specific NPNM cases to pathogen-specific meningitis cases to the state-level pathogen-specific meningitis cases. Mortality due to pathogen-specific NPNM was calculated with the ratio of pneumococcal and Hib meningitis case fatality to pneumococcal and Hib meningitis NPNM case fatality. Census data from India provided the population at risk. FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2015, estimates of pneumococcal deaths in Indian children aged 1-59 months fell from 166 000 (uncertainty range [UR] 110 000-198 000) to 68 700 (44 600-86 000), while Hib deaths fell from 82 600 (52 300-112 000) to 15 600 (9800-21 500), representing a 58% (UR 22-78) decline in pneumococcal deaths and an 81% (59-91) decline in Hib deaths. In 2015, national mortality rates in children aged 1-59 months were 56 (UR 37-71) per 100 000 for pneumococcal infection and 13 (UR 8-18) per 100 000 for Hib. Uttar Pradesh (18 900 [UR 12 300-23 600]) and Bihar (8600 [5600-10 700]) had the highest numbers of pneumococcal deaths in 2015. Uttar Pradesh (9300 [UR 5900-12 700]) and Odisha (1100 [700-1500]) had the highest numbers of Hib deaths in 2015. Less conservative assumptions related to the proportion of pneumonia deaths attributable to pneumococcus indicate that as many as 118 000 (UR 69 000-140 000) total pneumococcal deaths could have occurred in 2015 in India. INTERPRETATION: Pneumococcal and Hib mortality have declined in children aged 1-59 months in India since 2000, even before nationwide implementation of conjugate vaccines. Introduction of the Hib vaccine in several states corresponded with a more rapid reduction in morbidity and mortality associated with Hib infection. Rapid scale-up and widespread use of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine and sustained use of the Hib vaccine could help accelerate achievement of child survival targets in India. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Assessment of an Antibody-in-Lymphocyte Supernatant Assay for the Etiological Diagnosis of Pneumococcal Pneumonia in Children.

New diagnostic tests for the etiology of childhood pneumonia are needed. We evaluated the antibody-in-lymphocyte supernatant (ALS) assay to detect immunoglobulin (Ig) G secretion from ex vivo peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) culture, as a potential diagnostic test for pneumococcal pneumonia. We enrolled 348 children with pneumonia admitted to Patan Hospital, Kathmandu, Nepal between December 2015 and September 2016. PBMCs sampled from participants were incubated for 48 h before harvesting of cell culture supernatant (ALS). We used a fluorescence-based multiplexed immunoassay to measure the concentration of IgG in ALS against five conserved pneumococcal protein antigens. Of children with pneumonia, 68 had a confirmed etiological diagnosis: 12 children had pneumococcal pneumonia (defined as blood or pleural fluid culture-confirmed; or plasma CRP concentration ≥60 mg/l and nasopharyngeal carriage of serotype 1 pneumococci), and 56 children had non-pneumococcal pneumonia. Children with non-pneumococcal pneumonia had either a bacterial pathogen isolated from blood (six children); or C-reactive protein <60 mg/l, absence of radiographic consolidation and detection of a pathogenic virus by multiplex PCR (respiratory syncytial virus, influenza viruses, or parainfluenza viruses; 23 children). Concentrations of ALS IgG to all five pneumococcal proteins were significantly higher in children with pneumococcal pneumonia than in children with non-pneumococcal pneumonia. The concentration of IgG in ALS to the best-performing antigen discriminated between children with pneumococcal and non-pneumococcal pneumonia with a sensitivity of 1.0 (95% CI 0.73-1.0), specificity of 0.66 (95% CI 0.52-0.78) and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) 0.85 (95% CI 0.75-0.94). Children with pneumococcal pneumonia were older than children with non-pneumococcal pneumonia (median 5.6 and 2.0 years, respectively, p < 0.001). When the analysis was limited to children ≥2 years of age, assay of IgG ALS to pneumococcal proteins was unable to discriminate between children with pneumococcal pneumonia and non-pneumococcal pneumonia (AUROCC 0.67, 95% CI 0.47-0.88). This method detected spontaneous secretion of IgG to pneumococcal protein antigens from cultured PBMCs. However, when stratified by age group, assay of IgG in ALS to pneumococcal proteins showed limited utility as a test to discriminate between pneumococcal and non-pneumococcal pneumonia in children.

One size does not fit all: The impact of primary vaccine container size on vaccine distribution and delivery.

BACKGROUND: While the size and type of a vaccine container (i.e., primary container) can have many implications on the safety and convenience of a vaccination session, another important but potentially overlooked consideration is how the design of the primary container may affect the distribution of the vaccine, its resulting cost, and whether the vial is ultimately opened. METHODS: Using our HERMES software platform, we developed a simulation model of the World Health Organization Expanded Program on Immunization supply chain for the Republic of Benin and used the model to explore the effects of different primary containers for various vaccine antigens. RESULTS: Replacing vaccines with presentations containing fewer doses per vial reduced vaccine availability (proportion of people arriving for vaccines who are successfully immunized) by as much as 13% (from 73% at baseline) and raised logistics costs by up to $0.06 per dose administered (from $0.25 at baseline) due to increased bottlenecks, while reducing total costs by as much as $0.15 per dose administered (from $2.52 at baseline) due to lower open vial wastage. Primary containers with a greater number of doses per vial each improved vaccine availability by 19% and reduced logistics costs by $0.05 per dose administered, while reducing the total costs by up to $0.25 per dose administered. Changes in supply chain performance were more extreme in departments with greater constraints. Implementing a vial opening threshold reversed the direction of many of these effects. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that one size may not fit all when choosing a primary vaccine container. Rather, the choice depends on characteristics of the vaccine, the vaccine supply chain, immunization session size, and goals of decision makers. In fact, the optimal vial size may vary among locations within a country. Simulation modeling can help identify tailored approaches to improve availability and efficiency.