Economic burden of hepatitis C in Egypt: the future impact of highly effective therapies.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Egypt is the highest in the world, yet the total economic burden has not been quantified. Improved understanding of costs and the impact of treatment strategies will provide for better allocation of resources to reduce HCV disease and economic burden. AIM: A modelling approach was used to quantify the current HCV-infected population, future disease progression and associated costs in Egypt. METHODS: Direct healthcare costs were calculated from a nationally representative hospital and a disability adjusted life year (DALY) template was used with monetary value assigned to lost life years. Three scenarios were considered: (i) Historical treatment scenario: 50% SVR; 65,000 treated annually, (ii) Current treatment scenario: 90% sustained virologic response (SVR); 65,000 treated annually, (iii) Increased treatment scenario: 90% SVR; 325,000 treated annually by 2018. RESULTS: Cumulative DALYs (2015-2030) under Scenario 1 were estimated at 7.88 million and cumulative costs estimated at $89.07 billion. Annual DALYs increased 16% during 2015-2030 while annual costs more than doubled. Scenario 2 reduced cumulative DALYs and costs by 7% and 4%, respectively. Under Scenario 3, total costs declined 73% to $1047 million during 2015-2030. As compared to Scenario 1, cumulative DALYs and costs decreased 37% and 35%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first estimate of the total economic burden of HCV in Egypt. Extraordinary measures are necessary to substantially reduce HCV disease and cost burden. With newer therapies, strategies to reduce disease burden are feasible and cost-effective.

Analysis of long-term endoscopic surveillance during follow-up after variceal sclerotherapy from a 13-year experience.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the course of patients with bleeding esophageal varices treated with endoscopic sclerotherapy after obliterating varices and to determine the cost benefits of long-term endoscopic surveillance from a retrospective analysis of a 13-year experience. LOCATION: University-affiliated teaching hospital and county facility. METHODS: Patients whose varices were obliterated by endoscopic sclerotherapy were considered for the study if they had a minimum of 12 months of follow-up. Sclerotherapy was initially performed weekly, increasing intervals to eventual yearly treatments. Varices were reobliterated if they reformed. Variables assessed were rebleeding, mortality, employment status, and cost based on allowable and reimbursed Medicare rates. RESULTS: Of 324 patients who achieved variceal obliteration, analysis included 104 eligible patients who were followed up for > 12 months (41 +/- 28). Varices reformed in 73 patients (71%), mostly in the first year after obliteration or reobliteration. Abstinent alcoholic patients were least likely to reform varices. Nineteen patients (18%) had 23 rebleeding episodes, and in 10 patients (10%) portalsystemic shunt was placed. Survival was 84% and bleeding-related mortality was 6%. Significantly more patients were employed while on the program compared with entry. The yearly cost of treating variceal reformers ($2,117) was significantly higher than variceal nonreformers ($1,735), but the overall cost of maintaining a patient on a chronic sclerotherapy program was relatively small. CONCLUSIONS: The low rebleeding, low mortality, and relatively low cost in patients managed long term by chronic sclerotherapy underscores the benefits of this treatment program.