Overcoming challenges in the economic evaluation of interventions to optimise antibiotic use.

Bacteria are becoming increasingly resistant to antibiotics, reducing our ability to treat infections and threatening to undermine modern health care. Optimising antibiotic use is a key element in tackling the problem. Traditional economic evaluation methods do not capture many of the benefits from improved antibiotic use and the potential impact on resistance. Not capturing these benefits is a major obstacle to optimising antibiotic use, as it fails to incentivise the development and use of interventions to optimise the use of antibiotics and preserve their effectiveness (stewardship interventions). Estimates of the benefits of improving antibiotic use involve considerable uncertainty as they depend on the evolution of resistance and associated health outcomes and costs. Here we discuss how economic evaluation methods might be adapted, in the face of such uncertainties. We propose a threshold-based approach that estimates the minimum resistance-related costs that would need to be averted by an intervention to make it cost-effective. If it is probable that without the intervention costs will exceed the threshold then the intervention should be deemed cost-effective.

Assessment of an institutional guideline for vancomycin dosing and identification of predictive factors associated with dose and drug trough levels.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of an antimicrobial guideline for vancomycin prescribing deployed using electronic prescribing aid and web/phone-based app. To define factors associated with guideline compliance and drug levels, and to investigate if antimicrobial dosing recommendations can be refined using routinely collected electronic healthcare record data. METHODS: We used data from Oxford University Hospitals between 01-January-2016 and 01-June-2021 and multivariable regression models to investigate factors associated with dosing compliance, drug levels and acute kidney injury (AKI). RESULTS: 3767 patients received intravenous vancomycin for ≥24 h. Compliance with recommended loading and initial maintenance doses reached 84% and 70% respectively; 72% of subsequent maintenance doses were correctly adjusted. However, only 26% first and 32% subsequent levels reached the target range, and for patients with ongoing vancomycin treatment, 55-63% achieved target levels at 5 days. Drug levels were independently higher in older patients. Incidence of AKI was low (5.7%). Model estimates were used to propose updated age, weight and eGFR specific guidelines. CONCLUSION: Despite good compliance with guidelines for vancomycin dosing, the proportion of drug levels achieving the target range remained suboptimal. Routinely collected electronic data can be used at scale to inform pharmacokinetic studies and could improve vancomycin dosing.

Optimised versus standard dosing of vancomycin in infants with Gram-positive sepsis (NeoVanc): a multicentre, randomised, open-label, phase 2b, non-inferiority trial.

BACKGROUND: Vancomycin is the most widely used antibiotic for neonatal Gram-positive sepsis, but clinical outcome data of dosing strategies are scarce. The NeoVanc programme comprised extensive preclinical studies to inform a randomised controlled trial to assess optimised vancomycin dosing. We compared the efficacy of an optimised regimen to a standard regimen in infants with late onset sepsis that was known or suspected to be caused by Gram-positive microorganisms. METHODS: NeoVanc was an open-label, multicentre, phase 2b, parallel-group, randomised, non-inferiority trial comparing the efficacy and toxicity of an optimised regimen of vancomycin to a standard regimen in infants aged 90 days or younger. Infants with at least three clinical or laboratory sepsis criteria or confirmed Gram-positive sepsis with at least one clinical or laboratory criterion were enrolled from 22 neonatal intensive care units in Greece, Italy, Estonia, Spain, and the UK. Infants were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the optimised regimen (25 mg/kg loading dose, followed by 15 mg/kg every 12 h or 8 h dependent on postmenstrual age, for 5 ± 1 days) or the standard regimen (no loading dose; 15 mg/kg every 24 h, 12 h, or 8 h dependent on postmenstrual age for 10 ± 2 days). Vancomycin was administered intravenously via 60 min infusion. Group allocation was not masked to local investigators or parents. The primary endpoint was success at the test of cure visit (10 ± 1 days after the end of actual vancomycin therapy) in the per-protocol population, where success was defined as the participant being alive at the test of cure visit, having a successful outcome at the end of actual vancomycin therapy, and not having a clinically or microbiologically significant relapse or new infection requiring antistaphylococcal antibiotics for more than 24 h within 10 days of the end of actual vancomycin therapy. The non-inferiority margin was -10%. Safety was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02790996). FINDINGS: Between March 3, 2017, and July 29, 2019, 242 infants were randomly assigned to the standard regimen group (n=122) or the optimised regimen group (n=120). Primary outcome data in the per-protocol population were available for 90 infants in the optimised group and 92 in the standard group. 64 (71%) of 90 infants in the optimised group and 73 (79%) of 92 in the standard group had success at test of cure visit; non-inferiority was not confirmed (adjusted risk difference -7% [95% CI -15 to 2]). Incomplete resolution of clinical or laboratory signs after 5 ± 1 days of vancomycin therapy was the main factor contributing to clinical failure in the optimised group. Abnormal hearing test results were recorded in 25 (30%) of 84 infants in the optimised group and 12 (15%) of 79 in the standard group (adjusted risk ratio 1·96 [95% CI 1·07 to 3·59], p=0·030). There were six vancomycin-related adverse events in the optimised group (one serious adverse event) and four in the standard group (two serious adverse events). 11 infants in the intention-to-treat population died (six [6%] of 102 infants in the optimised group and five [5%] of 98 in the standard group). INTERPRETATION: In the largest neonatal vancomycin efficacy trial yet conducted, no clear clinical impact of a shorter duration of treatment with a loading dose was demonstrated. The use of the optimised regimen cannot be recommended because a potential hearing safety signal was identified; long-term follow-up is being done. These results emphasise the importance of robust clinical safety assessments of novel antibiotic dosing regimens in infants. FUNDING: EU Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration.

How did a Quality Premium financial incentive influence antibiotic prescribing in primary care? Views of Clinical Commissioning Group and general practice professionals.

BACKGROUND: The Quality Premium (QP) was introduced for Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) in England to optimize antibiotic prescribing, but it remains unclear how it was implemented. OBJECTIVES: To understand responses to the QP and how it was perceived to influence antibiotic prescribing. METHODS: Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 22 CCG and 19 general practice professionals. Interviews were analysed thematically. RESULTS: The findings were organized into four categories. (i) Communication: this was perceived as unstructured and infrequent, and CCG professionals were unsure whether they received QP funding. (ii) Implementation: this was influenced by available local resources and competing priorities, with multifaceted and tailored strategies seen as most helpful for engaging general practices. Many antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) strategies were implemented independently from the QP, motivated by quality improvement. (iii) Mechanisms: the QP raised the priority of AMS nationally and locally, and provided prescribing targets to aim for and benchmark against, but money was not seen as reinvested into AMS. (iv) Impact and sustainability: the QP was perceived as successful, but targets were considered challenging for a minority of CCGs and practices due to contextual factors (e.g. deprivation, understaffing). CCG professionals were concerned with potential discontinuation of the QP and prescribing rates levelling off. CONCLUSIONS: CCG and practice professionals expressed positive views of the QP and associated prescribing targets and feedback. The QP helped influence change mainly by raising the priority of AMS and defining change targets rather than providing additional funding. To maximize impact, behavioural mechanisms of financial incentives should be considered pre-implementation.

The cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis strategies for individuals with advanced HIV starting treatment in Africa.

INTRODUCTION: Many HIV-positive individuals in Africa have advanced disease when initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) so have high risks of opportunistic infections and death. The REALITY trial found that an enhanced-prophylaxis package including fluconazole reduced mortality by 27% in individuals starting ART with CD4 <100 cells/mm3 . We investigated the cost-effectiveness of this enhanced-prophylaxis package versus other strategies, including using cryptococcal antigen (CrAg) testing, in individuals with CD4 <200 cells/mm3 or <100 cells/mm3 at ART initiation and all individuals regardless of CD4 count. METHODS: The REALITY trial enrolled from June 2013 to April 2015. A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of six management strategies in individuals initiating ART in the REALITY trial countries. Strategies included standard-prophylaxis, enhanced-prophylaxis, standard-prophylaxis with fluconazole; and three CrAg testing strategies, the first stratifying individuals to enhanced-prophylaxis (CrAg-positive) or standard-prophylaxis (CrAg-negative), the second to enhanced-prophylaxis (CrAg-positive) or enhanced-prophylaxis without fluconazole (CrAg-negative) and the third to standard-prophylaxis with fluconazole (CrAg-positive) or without fluconazole (CrAg-negative). The model estimated costs, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) over 48 weeks using three competing mortality risks: cryptococcal meningitis; tuberculosis, serious bacterial infection or other known cause; and unknown cause. RESULTS: Enhanced-prophylaxis was cost-effective at cost-effectiveness thresholds of US$300 and US$500 per QALY with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$157 per QALY in the CD4 <200 cells/mm3 population providing enhanced-prophylaxis components are sourced at lowest available prices. The ICER reduced in more severely immunosuppressed individuals (US$113 per QALY in the CD4 <100 cells/mm3 population) and increased in all individuals regardless of CD4 count (US$722 per QALY). Results were sensitive to prices of the enhanced-prophylaxis components. Enhanced-prophylaxis was more effective and less costly than all CrAg testing strategies as enhanced-prophylaxis still conveyed health gains in CrAg-negative patients and savings from targeting prophylaxis based on CrAg status did not compensate for costs of CrAg testing. CrAg testing strategies did not become cost-effective unless the price of CrAg testing fell below US$2.30. CONCLUSIONS: The REALITY enhanced-prophylaxis package in individuals with advanced HIV starting ART reduces morbidity and mortality, is practical to administer and is cost-effective. Efforts should continue to ensure that components are accessed at lowest available prices.

Handling an uncertain control group event risk in non-inferiority trials: non-inferiority frontiers and the power-stabilising transformation.

BACKGROUND: Non-inferiority trials are increasingly used to evaluate new treatments that are expected to have secondary advantages over standard of care, but similar efficacy on the primary outcome. When designing a non-inferiority trial with a binary primary outcome, the choice of effect measure for the non-inferiority margin (e.g. risk ratio or risk difference) has an important effect on sample size calculations; furthermore, if the control event risk observed is markedly different from that assumed, the trial can quickly lose power or the results become difficult to interpret. METHODS: We propose a new way of designing non-inferiority trials to overcome the issues raised by unexpected control event risks. Our proposal involves using clinical judgement to specify a 'non-inferiority frontier', i.e. a curve defining the most appropriate non-inferiority margin for each possible value of control event risk. Existing trials implicitly use frontiers defined by a fixed risk ratio or a fixed risk difference. We discuss their limitations and propose a fixed arcsine difference frontier, using the power-stabilising transformation for binary outcomes, which may better represent clinical judgement. We propose and compare three ways of designing a trial using this frontier: testing and reporting on the arcsine scale; testing on the arcsine scale but reporting on the risk difference or risk ratio scale; and modifying the margin on the risk difference or risk ratio scale after observing the control event risk according to the power-stabilising frontier. RESULTS: Testing and reporting on the arcsine scale leads to results which are challenging to interpret clinically. For small values of control event risk, testing on the arcsine scale and reporting results on the risk difference scale produces confidence intervals at a higher level than the nominal one or non-inferiority margins that are slightly smaller than those back-calculated from the power-stabilising frontier alone. However, working on the arcsine scale generally requires a larger sample size compared to the risk difference scale. Therefore, working on the risk difference scale, modifying the margin after observing the control event risk, might be preferable, as it requires a smaller sample size. However, this approach tends to slightly inflate type I error rate; a solution is to use a slightly lower significance level for testing, although this modestly reduces power. When working on the risk ratio scale instead, the same approach based on the modification of the margin leads to power levels above the nominal one, maintaining type I error under control. CONCLUSIONS: Our proposed methods of designing non-inferiority trials using power-stabilising non-inferiority frontiers make trial design more resilient to unexpected values of the control event risk, at the only cost of requiring somewhat larger sample sizes when the goal is to report results on the risk difference scale.

Comparison of long-read sequencing technologies in the hybrid assembly of complex bacterial genomes.

Illumina sequencing allows rapid, cheap and accurate whole genome bacterial analyses, but short reads (<300 bp) do not usually enable complete genome assembly. Long-read sequencing greatly assists with resolving complex bacterial genomes, particularly when combined with short-read Illumina data (hybrid assembly). However, it is not clear how different long-read sequencing methods affect hybrid assembly accuracy. Relative automation of the assembly process is also crucial to facilitating high-throughput complete bacterial genome reconstruction, avoiding multiple bespoke filtering and data manipulation steps. In this study, we compared hybrid assemblies for 20 bacterial isolates, including two reference strains, using Illumina sequencing and long reads from either Oxford Nanopore Technologies (ONT) or SMRT Pacific Biosciences (PacBio) sequencing platforms. We chose isolates from the family Enterobacteriaceae, as these frequently have highly plastic, repetitive genetic structures, and complete genome reconstruction for these species is relevant for a precise understanding of the epidemiology of antimicrobial resistance. We de novo assembled genomes using the hybrid assembler Unicycler and compared different read processing strategies, as well as comparing to long-read-only assembly with Flye followed by short-read polishing with Pilon. Hybrid assembly with either PacBio or ONT reads facilitated high-quality genome reconstruction, and was superior to the long-read assembly and polishing approach evaluated with respect to accuracy and completeness. Combining ONT and Illumina reads fully resolved most genomes without additional manual steps, and at a lower consumables cost per isolate in our setting. Automated hybrid assembly is a powerful tool for complete and accurate bacterial genome assembly.

Oral versus intravenous antibiotics for bone and joint infections: the OVIVA non-inferiority RCT.

BACKGROUND: Management of bone and joint infection commonly includes 4-6 weeks of intravenous (IV) antibiotics, but there is little evidence to suggest that oral (PO) therapy results in worse outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether or not PO antibiotics are non-inferior to IV antibiotics in treating bone and joint infection. DESIGN: Parallel-group, randomised (1 : 1), open-label, non-inferiority trial. The non-inferiority margin was 7.5%. SETTING: Twenty-six NHS hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with a clinical diagnosis of bone, joint or orthopaedic metalware-associated infection who would ordinarily receive at least 6 weeks of antibiotics, and who had received ≤ 7 days of IV therapy from definitive surgery (or start of planned curative treatment in patients managed non-operatively). INTERVENTIONS: Participants were centrally computer-randomised to PO or IV antibiotics to complete the first 6 weeks of therapy. Follow-on PO therapy was permitted in either arm. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary outcome was the proportion of participants experiencing treatment failure within 1 year. An associated cost-effectiveness evaluation assessed health resource use and quality-of-life data. RESULTS: Out of 1054 participants (527 in each arm), end-point data were available for 1015 (96.30%) participants. Treatment failure was identified in 141 out of 1015 (13.89%) participants: 74 out of 506 (14.62%) and 67 out of 509 (13.16%) of those participants randomised to IV and PO therapy, respectively. In the intention-to-treat analysis, using multiple imputation to include all participants, the imputed risk difference between PO and IV therapy for definitive treatment failure was -1.38% (90% confidence interval -4.94% to 2.19%), thus meeting the non-inferiority criterion. A complete-case analysis, a per-protocol analysis and sensitivity analyses for missing data each confirmed this result. With the exception of IV catheter complications [49/523 (9.37%) in the IV arm vs. 5/523 (0.96%) in the PO arm)], there was no significant difference between the two arms in the incidence of serious adverse events. PO therapy was highly cost-effective, yielding a saving of £2740 per patient without any significant difference in quality-adjusted life-years between the two arms of the trial. LIMITATIONS: The OVIVA (Oral Versus IntraVenous Antibiotics) trial was an open-label trial, but bias was limited by assessing all potential end points by a blinded adjudication committee. The population was heterogenous, which facilitated generalisability but limited the statistical power of subgroup analyses. Participants were only followed up for 1 year so differences in late recurrence cannot be excluded. CONCLUSIONS: PO antibiotic therapy is non-inferior to IV therapy when used during the first 6 weeks in the treatment for bone and joint infection, as assessed by definitive treatment failure within 1 year of randomisation. These findings challenge the current standard of care and provide an opportunity to realise significant benefits for patients, antimicrobial stewardship and the health economy. FUTURE WORK: Further work is required to define the optimal total duration of therapy for bone and joint infection in the context of specific surgical interventions. Currently, wide variation in clinical practice suggests significant redundancy that likely contributes to the excess and unnecessary use of antibiotics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN91566927. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 23, No. 38. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Treatment of bone and joint infection usually requires a long course of antibiotics. Doctors usually give these by injection through a vein (intravenously) for the first 4­6 weeks, rather than by mouth (orally). Although intravenous (IV) administration is more expensive and less convenient for patients, most doctors believe that it is more effective. However, there is little evidence to support this. The OVIVA (Oral Versus IntraVenous Antibiotics) trial set out to challenge this assumption. A total of 1054 patients from 26 UK hospitals were randomly allocated to receive the first 6 weeks of antibiotic therapy either intravenously or orally. Irrespective of the route of administration, the choice of antibiotic was left to an infection specialist so as to ensure that the most appropriate antibiotics were given. Patients were followed up for 1 year. Thirty-nine participants were lost to follow-up. Among the remaining 1015 participants, treatment failure occurred in 14.6% of those treated intravenously and 13.2% of those treated with PO antibiotics. This difference could easily have occurred by chance. Even if it was not by chance, the difference does not suggest that PO therapy is associated with worse outcomes than IV therapy and is too small to conclude that PO therapy is better than IV therapy. Participants in the IV group stayed in hospital longer and 10% of them had complications related to the IV line used for administering the antibiotics. In addition, their treatment was, overall, more expensive. We conclude that PO antibiotic therapy has no disadvantages for the early management of bone and joint infection. It is also cheaper and associated with fewer complications.

Transfusion Volume for Children with Severe Anemia in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Severe anemia (hemoglobin level, <6 g per deciliter) is a leading cause of hospital admission and death in children in sub-Saharan Africa. The World Health Organization recommends transfusion of 20 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram of body weight for anemia, regardless of hemoglobin level. METHODS: In this factorial, open-label trial, we randomly assigned Ugandan and Malawian children 2 months to 12 years of age with a hemoglobin level of less than 6 g per deciliter and severity features (e.g., respiratory distress or reduced consciousness) to receive immediate blood transfusion with 20 ml per kilogram or 30 ml per kilogram. Three other randomized analyses investigated immediate as compared with no immediate transfusion, the administration of postdischarge micronutrients, and postdischarge prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. RESULTS: A total of 3196 eligible children (median age, 37 months; 2050 [64.1%] with malaria) were assigned to receive a transfusion of 30 ml per kilogram (1598 children) or 20 ml per kilogram (1598 children) and were followed for 180 days. A total of 1592 children (99.6%) in the higher-volume group and 1596 (99.9%) in the lower-volume group started transfusion (median, 1.2 hours after randomization). The mean (±SD) volume of total blood transfused per child was 475±385 ml and 353±348 ml, respectively; 197 children (12.3%) and 300 children (18.8%) in the respective groups received additional transfusions. Overall, 55 children (3.4%) in the higher-volume group and 72 (4.5%) in the lower-volume group died before 28 days (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54 to 1.08; P = 0.12 by log-rank test). This finding masked significant heterogeneity in 28-day mortality according to the presence or absence of fever (>37.5°C) at screening (P=0.001 after Sidak correction). Among the 1943 children (60.8%) without fever, mortality was lower with a transfusion volume of 30 ml per kilogram than with a volume of 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.69). Among the 1253 children (39.2%) with fever, mortality was higher with 30 ml per kilogram than with 20 ml per kilogram (hazard ratio, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.04 to 3.49). There was no evidence of differences between the randomized groups in readmissions, serious adverse events, or hemoglobin recovery at 180 days. CONCLUSIONS: Overall mortality did not differ between the two transfusion strategies. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and Department for International Development, United Kingdom; TRACT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN84086586.).

Immediate Transfusion in African Children with Uncomplicated Severe Anemia.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends not performing transfusions in African children hospitalized for uncomplicated severe anemia (hemoglobin level of 4 to 6 g per deciliter and no signs of clinical severity). However, high mortality and readmission rates suggest that less restrictive transfusion strategies might improve outcomes. METHODS: In this factorial, open-label, randomized, controlled trial, we assigned Ugandan and Malawian children 2 months to 12 years of age with uncomplicated severe anemia to immediate transfusion with 20 ml or 30 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram of body weight, as determined in a second simultaneous randomization, or no immediate transfusion (control group), in which transfusion with 20 ml of whole-blood equivalent per kilogram was triggered by new signs of clinical severity or a drop in hemoglobin to below 4 g per deciliter. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. Three other randomizations investigated transfusion volume, postdischarge supplementation with micronutrients, and postdischarge prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. RESULTS: A total of 1565 children (median age, 26 months) underwent randomization, with 778 assigned to the immediate-transfusion group and 787 to the control group; 984 children (62.9%) had malaria. The children were followed for 180 days, and 71 (4.5%) were lost to follow-up. During the primary hospitalization, transfusion was performed in all the children in the immediate-transfusion group and in 386 (49.0%) in the control group (median time to transfusion, 1.3 hours vs. 24.9 hours after randomization). The mean (±SD) total blood volume transfused per child was 314±228 ml in the immediate-transfusion group and 142±224 ml in the control group. Death had occurred by 28 days in 7 children (0.9%) in the immediate-transfusion group and in 13 (1.7%) in the control group (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22 to 1.36; P = 0.19) and by 180 days in 35 (4.5%) and 47 (6.0%), respectively (hazard ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.48 to 1.15), without evidence of interaction with other randomizations (P>0.20) or evidence of between-group differences in readmissions, serious adverse events, or hemoglobin recovery at 180 days. The mean length of hospital stay was 0.9 days longer in the control group. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of differences in clinical outcomes over 6 months between the children who received immediate transfusion and those who did not. The triggered-transfusion strategy in the control group resulted in lower blood use; however, the length of hospital stay was longer, and this strategy required clinical and hemoglobin monitoring. (Funded by the Medical Research Council and Department for International Development; TRACT Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN84086586.).

The challenge of antimicrobial resistance: What economics can contribute.

As antibiotic consumption grows, bacteria are becoming increasingly resistant to treatment. Antibiotic resistance undermines much of modern health care, which relies on access to effective antibiotics to prevent and treat infections associated with routine medical procedures. The resulting challenges have much in common with those posed by climate change, which economists have responded to with research that has informed and shaped public policy. Drawing on economic concepts such as externalities and the principal-agent relationship, we suggest how economics can help to solve the challenges arising from increasing resistance to antibiotics. We discuss solutions to the key economic issues, from incentivizing the development of effective new antibiotics to improving antibiotic stewardship through financial mechanisms and regulation.

Adjunctive rifampicin to reduce early mortality from Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia: the ARREST RCT.

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia is a common and frequently fatal infection. Adjunctive rifampicin may enhance early S. aureus killing, sterilise infected foci and blood faster, and thereby reduce the risk of dissemination, metastatic infection and death. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether or not adjunctive rifampicin reduces bacteriological (microbiologically confirmed) failure/recurrence or death through 12 weeks from randomisation. Secondary objectives included evaluating the impact of rifampicin on all-cause mortality, clinically defined failure/recurrence or death, toxicity, resistance emergence, and duration of bacteraemia; and assessing the cost-effectiveness of rifampicin. DESIGN: Parallel-group, randomised (1 : 1), blinded, placebo-controlled multicentre trial. SETTING: UK NHS trust hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Adult inpatients (≥ 18 years) with meticillin-resistant or susceptible S. aureus grown from one or more blood cultures, who had received < 96 hours of antibiotic therapy for the current infection, and without contraindications to rifampicin. INTERVENTIONS: Adjunctive rifampicin (600-900 mg/day, oral or intravenous) or placebo for 14 days in addition to standard antibiotic therapy. Investigators and patients were blinded to trial treatment. Follow-up was for 12 weeks (assessments at 3, 7, 10 and 14 days, weekly until discharge and final assessment at 12 weeks post randomisation). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was all-cause bacteriological (microbiologically confirmed) failure/recurrence or death through 12 weeks from randomisation. RESULTS: Between December 2012 and October 2016, 758 eligible participants from 29 UK hospitals were randomised: 370 to rifampicin and 388 to placebo. The median age was 65 years [interquartile range (IQR) 50-76 years]. A total of 485 (64.0%) infections were community acquired and 132 (17.4%) were nosocomial; 47 (6.2%) were caused by meticillin-resistant S. aureus. A total of 301 (39.7%) participants had an initial deep infection focus. Standard antibiotics were given for a median of 29 days (IQR 18-45 days) and 619 (81.7%) participants received flucloxacillin. By 12 weeks, 62 out of 370 (16.8%) patients taking rifampicin versus 71 out of 388 (18.3%) participants taking the placebo experienced bacteriological (microbiologically confirmed) failure/recurrence or died [absolute risk difference -1.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) -7.0% to 4.3%; hazard ratio 0.96, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.35; p = 0.81]. There were 4 (1.1%) and 5 (1.3%) bacteriological failures (p = 0.82) in the rifampicin and placebo groups, respectively. There were 3 (0.8%) versus 16 (4.1%) bacteriological recurrences (p = 0.01), and 55 (14.9%) versus 50 (12.9%) deaths without bacteriological failure/recurrence (p = 0.30) in the rifampicin and placebo groups, respectively. Over 12 weeks, there was no evidence of differences in clinically defined failure/recurrence/death (p = 0.84), all-cause mortality (p = 0.60), serious (p = 0.17) or grade 3/4 (p = 0.36) adverse events (AEs). However, 63 (17.0%) participants in the rifampicin group versus 39 (10.1%) participants in the placebo group experienced antibiotic or trial drug-modifying AEs (p = 0.004), and 24 (6.5%) participants in the rifampicin group versus 6 (1.5%) participants in the placebo group experienced drug-interactions (p = 0.0005). Evaluation of the costs and health-related quality-of-life impacts revealed that an episode of S. aureus bacteraemia costs an average of £12,197 over 12 weeks. Rifampicin was estimated to save 10% of episode costs (p = 0.14). After adjustment, the effect of rifampicin on total quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) was positive (0.004 QALYs), but not statistically significant (standard error 0.004 QALYs). CONCLUSIONS: Adjunctive rifampicin provided no overall benefit over standard antibiotic therapy in adults with S. aureus bacteraemia. FUTURE WORK: Given the substantial mortality, other antibiotic combinations or improved source management should be investigated. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN37666216, EudraCT 2012-000344-10 and Clinical Trials Authorisation 00316/0243/001. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 59. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Reducing demand for antibiotic prescriptions: evidence from an online survey of the general public on the interaction between preferences, beliefs and information, United Kingdom, 2015.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a major public health threat, is strongly associated with human antibiotic consumption. Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) account for substantial inappropriate antibiotic use; patient understanding and expectations probably play an important role. AIM: This study aimed to investigate what drives patient expectations of antibiotics for ILI and particularly whether AMR awareness, risk preferences (attitudes to taking risks with health) or time preferences (the extent to which people prioritise good health today over good health in the future) play a role. METHODS: In 2015, a representative online panel survey of 2,064 adults in the United Kingdom was asked about antibiotic use and effectiveness for ILI. Explanatory variables in multivariable regression included AMR awareness, risk and time preferences and covariates. RESULTS: The tendency not to prioritise immediate gain over later reward was independently strongly associated with greater awareness that antibiotics are inappropriate for ILI. Independently, believing antibiotics were effective for ILI and low AMR awareness significantly predicted reported antibiotic use. However, 272 (39%) of those with low AMR awareness said that the AMR information we provided would lead them to ask a doctor for antibiotics more often, significantly more than would do so less often, and in contrast to those with high AMR awareness (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Information campaigns to reduce AMR may risk a paradoxical consequence of actually increasing public demand for antibiotics. Public antibiotic stewardship campaigns should be tested on a small scale before wider adoption.

Evaluation of Whole-Genome Sequencing for Mycobacterial Species Identification and Drug Susceptibility Testing in a Clinical Setting: a Large-Scale Prospective Assessment of Performance against Line Probe Assays and Phenotyping.

Use of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) for routine mycobacterial species identification and drug susceptibility testing (DST) is becoming a reality. We compared the performances of WGS and standard laboratory workflows prospectively, by parallel processing at a major mycobacterial reference service over the course of 1 year, for species identification, first-line Mycobacterium tuberculosis resistance prediction, and turnaround time. Among 2,039 isolates with line probe assay results for species identification, 74 (3.6%) failed sequencing or WGS species identification. Excluding these isolates, clinically important species were identified for 1,902 isolates, of which 1,825 (96.0%) were identified as the same species by WGS and the line probe assay. A total of 2,157 line probe test results for detection of resistance to the first-line drugs isoniazid and rifampin were available for 728 M. tuberculosis complex isolates. Excluding 216 (10.0%) cases where there were insufficient sequencing data for WGS to make a prediction, overall concordance was 99.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 98.9 to 99.6%), sensitivity was 97.6% (91.7 to 99.7%), and specificity was 99.5% (99.0 to 99.7%). A total of 2,982 phenotypic DST results were available for 777 M. tuberculosis complex isolates. Of these, 356 (11.9%) had no WGS comparator due to insufficient sequencing data, and in 154 (5.2%) cases the WGS prediction was indeterminate due to discovery of novel, previously uncharacterized mutations. Excluding these data, overall concordance was 99.2% (98.7 to 99.5%), sensitivity was 94.2% (88.4 to 97.6%), and specificity was 99.4% (99.0 to 99.7%). Median processing times for the routine laboratory tests versus WGS were similar overall, i.e., 20 days (interquartile range [IQR], 15 to 31 days) and 21 days (15 to 29 days), respectively (P = 0.41). In conclusion, WGS predicts species and drug susceptibility with great accuracy, but work is needed to increase the proportion of predictions made.

Adjunctive rifampicin for Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia (ARREST): a multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia is a common cause of severe community-acquired and hospital-acquired infection worldwide. We tested the hypothesis that adjunctive rifampicin would reduce bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or disease recurrence, or death, by enhancing early S aureus killing, sterilising infected foci and blood faster, and reducing risks of dissemination and metastatic infection. METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adults (≥18 years) with S aureus bacteraemia who had received ≤96 h of active antibiotic therapy were recruited from 29 UK hospitals. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) via a computer-generated sequential randomisation list to receive 2 weeks of adjunctive rifampicin (600 mg or 900 mg per day according to weight, oral or intravenous) versus identical placebo, together with standard antibiotic therapy. Randomisation was stratified by centre. Patients, investigators, and those caring for the patients were masked to group allocation. The primary outcome was time to bacteriologically confirmed treatment failure or disease recurrence, or death (all-cause), from randomisation to 12 weeks, adjudicated by an independent review committee masked to the treatment. Analysis was intention to treat. This trial was registered, number ISRCTN37666216, and is closed to new participants. FINDINGS: Between Dec 10, 2012, and Oct 25, 2016, 758 eligible participants were randomly assigned: 370 to rifampicin and 388 to placebo. 485 (64%) participants had community-acquired S aureus infections, and 132 (17%) had nosocomial S aureus infections. 47 (6%) had meticillin-resistant infections. 301 (40%) participants had an initial deep infection focus. Standard antibiotics were given for 29 (IQR 18-45) days; 619 (82%) participants received flucloxacillin. By week 12, 62 (17%) of participants who received rifampicin versus 71 (18%) who received placebo experienced treatment failure or disease recurrence, or died (absolute risk difference -1·4%, 95% CI -7·0 to 4·3; hazard ratio 0·96, 0·68-1·35, p=0·81). From randomisation to 12 weeks, no evidence of differences in serious (p=0·17) or grade 3-4 (p=0·36) adverse events were observed; however, 63 (17%) participants in the rifampicin group versus 39 (10%) in the placebo group had antibiotic or trial drug-modifying adverse events (p=0·004), and 24 (6%) versus six (2%) had drug interactions (p=0·0005). INTERPRETATION: Adjunctive rifampicin provided no overall benefit over standard antibiotic therapy in adults with S aureus bacteraemia. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment.

Mortality risks associated with emergency admissions during weekends and public holidays: an analysis of electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Weekend hospital admission is associated with increased mortality, but the contributions of varying illness severity and admission time to this weekend effect remain unexplored. METHODS: We analysed unselected emergency admissions to four Oxford University National Health Service hospitals in the UK from Jan 1, 2006, to Dec 31, 2014. The primary outcome was death within 30 days of admission (in or out of hospital), analysed using Cox models measuring time from admission. The primary exposure was day of the week of admission. We adjusted for multiple confounders including demographics, comorbidities, and admission characteristics, incorporating non-linearity and interactions. Models then considered the effect of adjusting for 15 common haematology and biochemistry test results or proxies for hospital workload. FINDINGS: 257 596 individuals underwent 503 938 emergency admissions. 18 313 (4·7%) patients admitted as weekday energency admissions and 6070 (5·1%) patients admitted as weekend emergency admissions died within 30 days (p<0·0001). 9347 individuals underwent 9707 emergency admissions on public holidays. 559 (5·8%) died within 30 days (p<0·0001 vs weekday). 15 routine haematology and biochemistry test results were highly prognostic for mortality. In 271 465 (53·9%) admissions with complete data, adjustment for test results explained 33% (95% CI 21 to 70) of the excess mortality associated with emergency admission on Saturdays compared with Wednesdays, 52% (lower 95% CI 34) on Sundays, and 87% (lower 95% CI 45) on public holidays after adjustment for standard patient characteristics. Excess mortality was predominantly restricted to admissions between 1100 h and 1500 h (pinteraction=0·04). No hospital workload measure was independently associated with mortality (all p values >0·06). INTERPRETATION: Adjustment for routine test results substantially reduced excess mortality associated with emergency admission at weekends and public holidays. Adjustment for patient-level factors not available in our study might further reduce the residual excess mortality, particularly as this clustered around midday at weekends. Hospital workload was not associated with mortality. Together, these findings suggest that the weekend effect arises from patient-level differences at admission rather than reduced hospital staffing or services. FUNDING: NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

A randomized trial comparing concise and standard consent forms in the START trial.

BACKGROUND: Improving the effectiveness and efficiency of research informed consent is a high priority. Some express concern about longer, more complex, written consent forms creating barriers to participant understanding. A recent meta-analysis concluded that randomized comparisons were needed. METHODS: We conducted a cluster-randomized non-inferiority comparison of a standard versus concise consent form within a multinational trial studying the timing of starting antiretroviral therapy in HIV+ adults (START). Interested sites were randomized to standard or concise consent forms for all individuals signing START consent. Participants completed a survey measuring comprehension of study information and satisfaction with the consent process. Site personnel reported usual site consent practices. The primary outcome was comprehension of the purpose of randomization (pre-specified 7.5% non-inferiority margin). RESULTS: 77 sites (2429 participants) were randomly allocated to use standard consent and 77 sites (2000 participants) concise consent, for an evaluable cohort of 4229. Site and participant characteristics were similar for the two groups. The concise consent was non-inferior to the standard consent on comprehension of randomization (80.2% versus 82%, site adjusted difference: 0.75% (95% CI -3.8%, +5.2%)); and the two groups did not differ significantly on total comprehension score, satisfaction, or voluntariness (p>0.1). Certain independent factors, such as education, influenced comprehension and satisfaction but not differences between consent groups. CONCLUSIONS: An easier to read, more concise consent form neither hindered nor improved comprehension of study information nor satisfaction with the consent process among a large number of participants. This supports continued efforts to make consent forms more efficient. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Informed consent substudy was registered as part of START study in clinicaltrials.gov #NCT00867048, and EudraCT # 2008-006439-12.

Same-Day Diagnostic and Surveillance Data for Tuberculosis via Whole-Genome Sequencing of Direct Respiratory Samples.

Routine full characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is culture based, taking many weeks. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) can generate antibiotic susceptibility profiles to inform treatment, augmented with strain information for global surveillance; such data could be transformative if provided at or near the point of care. We demonstrate a low-cost method of DNA extraction directly from patient samples for M. tuberculosis WGS. We initially evaluated the method by using the Illumina MiSeq sequencer (40 smear-positive respiratory samples obtained after routine clinical testing and 27 matched liquid cultures). M. tuberculosis was identified in all 39 samples from which DNA was successfully extracted. Sufficient data for antibiotic susceptibility prediction were obtained from 24 (62%) samples; all results were concordant with reference laboratory phenotypes. Phylogenetic placement was concordant between direct and cultured samples. With Illumina MiSeq/MiniSeq, the workflow from patient sample to results can be completed in 44/16 h at a reagent cost of £96/£198 per sample. We then employed a nonspecific PCR-based library preparation method for sequencing on an Oxford Nanopore Technologies MinION sequencer. We applied this to cultured Mycobacterium bovis strain BCG DNA and to combined culture-negative sputum DNA and BCG DNA. For flow cell version R9.4, the estimated turnaround time from patient to identification of BCG, detection of pyrazinamide resistance, and phylogenetic placement was 7.5 h, with full susceptibility results 5 h later. Antibiotic susceptibility predictions were fully concordant. A critical advantage of MinION is the ability to continue sequencing until sufficient coverage is obtained, providing a potential solution to the problem of variable amounts of M. tuberculosis DNA in direct samples.

Opportunities for improving the efficiency of paediatric HIV treatment programmes.

OBJECTIVES: To conduct two economic analyses addressing whether to: routinely monitor HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinically or with laboratory tests; continue or stop cotrimoxazole prophylaxis when children become stabilized on ART. DESIGN AND METHODS: The ARROW randomized trial investigated alternative strategies to deliver paediatric ART and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis in 1206 Ugandan/Zimbabwean children. Incremental cost-effectiveness and value of implementation analyses were undertaken. Scenario analyses investigated whether laboratory monitoring (CD4 tests for efficacy monitoring; haematology/biochemistry for toxicity) could be tailored and targeted to be delivered cost-effectively. Cotrimoxazole use was examined in malaria-endemic and non-endemic settings. RESULTS: Using all trial data, clinical monitoring delivered similar health outcomes to routine laboratory monitoring, but at a reduced cost, so was cost-effective. Continuing cotrimoxazole improved health outcomes at reduced costs. Restricting routine CD4 monitoring to after 52 weeks following ART initiation and removing toxicity testing was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $6084 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) across all age groups, but was much lower for older children (12+ years at initiation; incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = $769/QALY). Committing resources to improve cotrimoxazole implementation appears cost-effective. A healthcare system that could pay $600/QALY should be willing to spend up to $12.0 per patient-year to ensure continued provision of cotrimoxazole. CONCLUSION: Clinically driven monitoring of ART is cost-effective in most circumstances. Routine laboratory monitoring is generally not cost-effective at current prices, except possibly CD4 testing amongst adolescents initiating ART. Committing resources to ensure continued provision of cotrimoxazole in health facilities is more likely to represent an efficient use of resources.

Can rapid integrated polymerase chain reaction-based diagnostics for gastrointestinal pathogens improve routine hospital infection control practice? A diagnostic study.

BACKGROUND: Every year approximately 5000-9000 patients are admitted to a hospital with diarrhoea, which in up to 90% of cases has a non-infectious cause. As a result, single rooms are 'blocked' by patients with non-infectious diarrhoea, while patients with infectious diarrhoea are still in open bays because of a lack of free side rooms. A rapid test for differentiating infectious from non-infectious diarrhoea could be very beneficial for patients. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate MassCode multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the simultaneous diagnosis of multiple enteropathogens directly from stool, in terms of sensitivity/specificity to detect four common important enteropathogens: Clostridium difficile, Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp. and norovirus. DESIGN: A retrospective study of fixed numbers of samples positive for C. difficile (n = 200), Campylobacter spp. (n = 200), Salmonella spp. (n = 100) and norovirus (n = 200) plus samples negative for all these pathogens (n = 300). Samples were sourced from NHS microbiology laboratories in Oxford and Leeds where initial diagnostic testing was performed according to Public Health England methodology. Researchers carrying out MassCode assays were blind to this information. A questionnaire survey, examining current practice for infection control teams and microbiology laboratories managing infectious diarrhoea, was also carried out. SETTING: MassCode assays were carried out at Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust. Further multiplex assays, carried out using Luminex, were run on the same set of samples at Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust. The questionnaire was completed by various NHS trusts. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity to detect C. difficile, Campylobacter spp., Salmonella spp., and norovirus. RESULTS: Nucleic acids were extracted from 948 clinical samples using an optimised protocol (200 Campylobacter spp., 199 C. difficile, 60 S. enterica, 199 norovirus and 295 negative samples; some samples contained more than one pathogen). Using the MassCode assay, sensitivities for each organism compared with standard microbiological testing ranged from 43% to 94% and specificities from 95% to 98%, with particularly poor performance for S. enterica. Relatively large numbers of unexpected positives not confirmed with quantitative PCR were also observed, particularly for S. enterica, Giardia lamblia and Cryptosporidium spp. As the results indicated that S. enterica detection might provide generic challenges to other multiplex assays for gastrointestinal pathogens, the Luminex xTag(®) gastrointestinal assay was also run blinded on the same extracts (937/948 remaining) and on re-extracted samples (839/948 with sufficient material). For Campylobacter spp., C. difficile and norovirus, high sensitivities (> 92%) and specificities (> 96%) were observed. For S. enterica, on the original MassCode/Oxford extracts, Luminex sensitivity compared with standard microbiological testing was 84% [95% confidence interval (CI) 73% to 93%], but this dropped to 46% on a fresh extract, very similar to MassCode, with a corresponding increase in specificity from 92% to 99%. Overall agreement on the per-sample diagnosis compared with combined microbiology plus PCR for the main four/all pathogens was 85.6%/64.7%, 87.0%/82.9% and 89.8%/86.8% for the MassCode assay, Luminex assay/MassCode extract and Luminex assay/fresh extract, respectively. Luminex assay results from fresh extracts implied that 5% of samples did not represent infectious diarrhoea, even though enteropathogens were genuinely present. Managing infectious diarrhoea was a significant burden for infection control teams (taking 21% of their time) and better diagnostics were identified as having major potential benefits for patients. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the Luminex xTag gastrointestinal panel showed similar or superior sensitivity and specificity to the MassCode assay. However, on fresh extracts, this test had low sensitivity to detect a key enteric pathogen, S. enterica; making it an unrealistic option for most microbiology laboratories. Extraction efficiency appears to be a major obstacle for nucleic acid-based tests for this organism, and possibly the whole Enterobacteriaceae family. To improve workflows in service microbiology laboratories, to reduce workload for infection control practitioners, and to improve outcomes for NHS patients, further research on deoxyribonucleic acid-based multiplex gastrointestinal diagnostics is urgently needed. FUNDING: The Health Technology Assessment programme of the National Institute for Health Research.