The STAR care pathway for patients with chronic pain after total knee replacement: four-year follow-up of a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The Support and Treatment After Replacement (STAR) care pathway is a clinically important and cost-effective intervention found to improve pain outcomes over one year for people with chronic pain three months after total knee replacement (TKR). We followed up STAR trial participants to evaluate the longer-term clinical- and cost-effectiveness of this care pathway. METHODS: Participants who remained enrolled on the trial at one year were contacted by post at a median of four years after randomisation and invited to complete a questionnaire comprising the same outcomes collected during the trial. We captured pain (co-primary outcome using the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) pain severity and interference scales; scored 0-10, best to worst), function, neuropathic characteristics, emotional aspects of pain, health-related quality of life, and satisfaction. Electronic hospital informatics data on hospital resource use for the period of one to four years post-randomisation were collected from participating hospital sites. The economic evaluation took an National Health Service (NHS) secondary care perspective, with a four-year time horizon. RESULTS: Overall, 226/337 (67%) of participants returned completed follow-up questionnaires, yielding adjusted between-group differences in BPI means of -0.42 (95% confidence interval, CI (-1.07, 0.23); p = 0.20) for pain severity and - 0.64 (95% CI -1.41, 0.12); p = 0.10) for pain interference. Analysis using a multiple imputed data set (n = 337) showed an incremental net monetary benefit in favour of the STAR care pathway of £3,525 (95% CI -£990 to £8,039) at a £20,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold, leading to a probability that the intervention was cost-effective of 0.94. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of the longer-term benefits of the STAR care pathway are uncertain due to attrition of trial participants; however, there is a suggestion of some degree of sustained clinical benefit at four years. The care pathway remained cost-effective at four years. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: 92,545,361.

Chronic Low Back Pain with and without Concomitant Osteoarthritis: A Retrospective, Longitudinal Cohort Study of Patients in England.

Objective: Despite the high prevalence of chronic low back pain (CLBP) and osteoarthritis (OA), few estimates of the economic cost of these conditions in England have been published. The aim of the present analysis was to characterise the economic burden of moderate-to-severe pain associated with CLBP + OA and CLBP alone compared with general population-matched controls without CLBP or OA. The primary objective was to describe the total healthcare resource use (HCRU) and direct healthcare costs associated with the target patient populations. Secondary objectives were to describe treatment patterns and surgical procedures. Methods: This was a retrospective, observational cohort study of patients receiving healthcare indicative of moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with CLBP, with or without OA. We used linked longitudinal data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). Patients (cases) were matched 1 : 1 with controls on age, sex, comorbidity burden, GP practice, and HES data availability. Results: The CLBP-alone cohort comprised 13 554 cases with CLBP and 13 554 matched controls; the CLBP + OA cohort comprised 7803 cases with both OA and CLBP and 7803 matched controls. Across all follow-up periods, patients with CLBP alone and those with CLBP + OA had significantly more GP consultations, outpatient attendances, emergency department visits, and inpatient stays than controls (all p < 0.0001). By 36 months after indexing, the mean (SD) per-patient total direct healthcare cost in the CLBP-alone cohort was £5081 (£5905) for cases and £1809 (£4451) for controls (p < 0.0001); in the CLBP + OA cohort, the mean (SD) per-patient total direct healthcare cost was £8819 (£7143) for cases and £2428 (£4280) for controls (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: Moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with CLBP-with or without OA-has a substantial impact on patients and healthcare providers, leading to higher HCRU and costs versus controls among people with CLBP alone or together with OA.

Estimating the cost and epidemiology of mild to severe chronic pain associated with osteoarthritis in England: a retrospective analysis of linked primary and secondary care data.

OBJECTIVE: Osteoarthritis (OA) affects 10% of adults in the UK. Despite over one-third of people with OA experiencing chronic pain, few studies have examined the population-level impact of chronic pain associated with OA. We compared resource-use and epidemiological outcomes in patients with mild, moderate and severe chronic OA-associated pain and matched controls without known OA. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study (July 2008 to June 2019). SETTING: Electronic records extracted from Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD primary care linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES). PARTICIPANTS: Patients (cases; n=23 016) aged ≥18 years with chronic OA-associated pain. Controls (n=23 016) without OA or chronic pain matched on age, sex, comorbidity burden, general practitioner practice and available HES data. INTERVENTIONS: None. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Total healthcare resource use (HCRU), direct healthcare costs in 0-12, 12-24 and 24-36 months postindex. Secondary outcomes included incidence and prevalence of chronic OA-associated pain and pharmacological management. RESULTS: HCRU was consistently greater in cases versus controls for all resource categories during preindex and postindex periods. Across follow-up periods, resource use was greatest in patients with severe pain. In the first 12 months postindexing, mean total costs incurred by cases were four times higher versus matched controls (£256 vs £62); costs were approximately twice as high in cases vs controls for months 12-24 (£166 vs £86) and 24-36 (£150 vs £81; all p<0.0001). The incidence of new cases of chronic pain associated with OA was 2.64 per 1000 person-years; the prevalence was 1.4%. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the real-world cost of chronic pain associated with OA in cases versus matched controls. We included patients with mild, moderate and severe pain associated with OA, and showed HCRU in discrete 1-year time frames. The true economic burden of pain associated with OA is likely to be considerably higher when indirect costs are considered.

Social security cuts and life expectancy: a longitudinal analysis of local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales.

BACKGROUND: The UK Government's 'welfare reform' programme included reductions to social security payments, phased in over the financial years 2011/2012-2015/2016. Previous studies of social security cuts and health outcomes have been restricted to analysing single UK countries or single payment types (eg, housing benefit). We examined the association between all social security cuts fully implemented by 2016 and life expectancy, for local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales. METHODS: Our unit of analysis was 201 upper tier local authorities (unitary authorities and county councils: 147 in England, 32 in Scotland, 22 in Wales). Our exposure was estimated social security loss per head of the working age population per year for each local authority, calculated against the baseline in 2010/2011. The primary outcome was annual life expectancy at birth between the calendar years 2012 and 2016 (year lagged following exposure). We used a panel regression approach with fixed effects. RESULTS: Social security cuts implemented by 2016 were estimated to be £475 per head of the working age population in England, £390 in Scotland and £490 in Wales since 2010/2011. During the study period, there was either no improvement or only marginal increases in national life expectancy. Social security loss and life expectancy were significantly associated: an estimated £100 decrease in social security per head of working age population was associated with a 1-month reduction in life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Social security cuts, at the UK local authority level, were associated with lower life expectancy. Further research should examine causality.

The Web-Based Pain-at-Work Toolkit With Telephone Support for Employees With Chronic or Persistent Pain: Protocol for a Cluster Randomized Feasibility Trial.

BACKGROUND: Chronic or persistent pain affects one's ability to work or be productive at work, generating high societal and economic burden. However, the provision of work-related advice and support for people with chronic pain is variable or lacking. The Pain-at-Work (PAW) Toolkit was cocreated with people who live with pain, health care professionals, and employers. It aims to increase knowledge about employee rights and how to access support for managing a painful chronic condition in the workplace and provides advice on lifestyle behaviors that facilitate the management of chronic pain. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to establish the feasibility of conducting a definitive cluster randomized controlled trial comparing access to the PAW Toolkit and telephone support calls from an occupational therapist (PAW) with treatment as usual (ie, standard support from their employer). Our primary outcomes are establishing parameters of feasibility, acceptability, usability, and safety of this digital workplace health intervention. We will assess the candidate primary and secondary outcomes' feasibility and test research processes for a definitive trial. METHODS: This is an open-label, parallel 2-arm pragmatic feasibility cluster randomized controlled trial with exploratory health economics analysis and a nested qualitative interview study. We aim to recruit 120 participants from at least 8 workplace clusters (any type, >10 employees) in England. The recruitment of workplaces occurs via personal approach, and the recruitment of individual participants is web based. Eligible participants are vocationally active adults aged ≥18 years with internet access and self-reporting chronic pain interfering with their ability to undertake or enjoy productive work. A restricted 1:1 cluster-level randomization is used to allocate employment settings to PAW or treatment as usual; participants are unblinded to group allocation. Following site- and individual-level consent, participants complete a web-based baseline survey (time 0), including measures of work capacity, health and well-being, and health care resource use. Follow-up is performed at 3 months (time 1) and 6 months (time 2). Feasibility outcomes relate to recruitment; intervention fidelity (eg, delivery, reach, uptake, and engagement); retention; and follow-up. Qualitative evaluation (time 2) is mapped to the Capability, Opportunity, Motivation-Behavior model and will explore intervention acceptability to employees and employers, along with individual and contextual factors influencing the delivery and uptake of the intervention. RESULTS: Ethics approval was obtained in March 2023. Trial recruitment began in June 2023. CONCLUSIONS: The PAW Toolkit is the first evidence-based digital health intervention aimed at supporting the self-management of chronic or persistent pain at work. This study will inform the design of a definitive trial, including sample size estimation, approaches to cluster site identification, primary and secondary outcomes' selection, and the final health economic model. Findings will inform approaches for the future delivery of this digital health intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05838677; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05838677. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/51474.

What is missing from how we measure and understand the experience of poverty and deprivation in population health analyses?

BACKGROUND: Explaining why some populations are healthier than others is a core task of epidemiology. Socioeconomic position (SEP), encompassing a broad range of exposures relating to economic circumstances, social class and deprivation, is an important explanation, but lacks a comprehensive framework for understanding the range of relevant exposures it encompasses. METHODS: We reviewed existing literature on experiential accounts of poverty through database searching and the identification of relevant material by experts. We mapped relevant concepts into a complex systems diagram. We developed this diagram through a process of consultation with academic experts and experts with direct experience of poverty. Finally, we categorized concepts on the basis of whether they have previously been measured, their importance to the causal flow of the diagram, and their importance to those consulted, creating a list of priorities for future measurement. RESULTS: There are a great many aspects of SEP which are not frequently measured or used in epidemiological research and, for some of these, work is needed to better conceptualize and develop measures. Potentially important missing aspects include stigma, social class processes, access to education, sense of lost potential, neighbourhoods, fairness and justice, emotional labour, masking poverty, being (in)visible, costs, and experiences of power. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses seeking to understand the extent to which SEP exposures explain differences in the health of populations are likely to benefit from a comprehensive understanding of the range and inter-relationships between different aspects of SEP. More research to better conceptualize and measure these aspects is now needed.

Health economic impact of moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with osteoarthritis in England: a retrospective analysis of linked primary and secondary care data.

OBJECTIVE: Despite the prevalence of osteoarthritis (OA) in England, few studies have examined the health economic impact of chronic pain associated with OA. The aim of this study was to compare outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with OA and matched controls without known OA. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study. SETTING: Electronic records extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD primary care database linked to Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data set. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (cases; n=5931) ≥18 years and with existing diagnosis of OA and moderate-to-severe pain associated with their OA, and controls matched on age, sex, comorbidity burden, general practitioner (GP) practice and availability of HES data. INTERVENTIONS: None. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Total healthcare resource use (HCRU) and direct healthcare costs during 0-6, 0-12, 0-24 and 0-36 months of follow-up. Secondary outcomes measures included pharmacological management and time to total joint replacement. RESULTS: Patients with moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with OA used significantly more healthcare services versus matched controls, reflected by higher HCRU and significantly higher direct costs. During the first 12 months' follow-up, cases had significantly more GP consultations, outpatient attendances, emergency department visits and inpatient stays than matched controls (all p<0.0001). Total mean costs incurred by cases during 0-12 months' follow-up were five times higher in cases versus controls (mean (SD): £4199 (£3966) vs £781 (£2073), respectively). Extensive cycling through pharmacological therapies was observed; among cases, 2040 (34.4%), 1340 (22.6%), 841 (14.2%), 459 (7.7%) and 706 (11.9%) received 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20 and >20 lines of therapy, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This wide-ranging, longitudinal, observational study of real-world primary and secondary care data demonstrates the impact of moderate-to-severe chronic pain associated with OA in patients compared with matched controls. Further studies are required to fully quantify the health economic burden of moderate-to-severe pain associated with OA.

Spatial Aspects of Health-Developing a Conceptual Framework.

Numerous studies and models address the determinants of health. However, in existing models, the spatial aspects of the determinants are not or only marginally taken into account and a theoretical discussion of the association between space and the determinants of health is missing. The aim of this paper is to generate a framework that can be used to place the determinants of health in a spatial context. A screening of the current first serves to identify the relevant determinants and describes the current state of knowledge. In addition, spatial scales that are important for the spatial consideration of health were developed and discussed. Based on these two steps, the conceptual framework on the spatial determinants of health was derived and subsequently discussed. The results show a variety of determinants that are associated with health from a spatial point of view. The overarching categories are global driving forces, policy and governance, living and physical environment, socio-demographic and economic conditions, healthcare services and cultural and working conditions. Three spatial scales (macro, meso and micro) are further subdivided into six levels, such as global (e.g., continents), regional (e.g., council areas) or neighbourhood (e.g., communities). The combination of the determinants and spatial scales are presented within a conceptual framework as a result of this work. Operating mechanisms and pathways between the spatial levels were added schematically. This is the first conceptual framework that links the determinants of health with the spatial perspective. It can form the working basis for future analyses in which spatial aspects of health are taken into account.

Influence of Social Support, Financial Status, and Lifestyle on the Disparity Between Inflammation and Disability in Rheumatoid Arthritis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how social support, financial status, and lifestyle influence the development of excess disability in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: Data were obtained from the Étude et Suivi des Polyarthrites Indifférenciées Récentes (ESPOIR) cohort study of people with RA. A previous analysis identified groups with similar inflammation trajectories but markedly different disability over 10 years; those in the higher disability trajectory groups were defined as having "excess disability." Self-reported data regarding contextual factors (social support, financial situation, lifestyle) were obtained from participants, and they completed patient-reported outcome measures (pain, fatigue, anxiety, depression) at baseline. The direct effect of the contextual factors on excess disability and the effect mediated by patient-reported outcome measures were assessed using structural equation models. Findings were validated in 2 independent data sets (Norfolk Arthritis Register [NOAR], Early Rheumatoid Arthritis Network [ERAN]). RESULTS: Of 538 included ESPOIR participants (mean age ± SD 48.3 ± 12.2 years; 79.2% women), 200 participants (37.2%) were in the excess disability group. Less social support (ß = 0.17 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.08, 0.26]), worse financial situation (ß = 0.24 [95% CI 0.14, 0.34]), less exercise (ß = 0.17 [95% CI 0.09-0.25]), and less education (ß = 0.15 [95% CI 0.06, 0.23]) were associated with excess disability group membership; smoking, alcohol consumption, and body mass index were not. Fatigue and depression mediated a small proportion of these effects. Similar results were seen in NOAR and ERAN. CONCLUSION: Greater emphasis is needed on the economic and social contexts of individuals with RA at presentation; these factors might influence disability over the following decade.

Bearing the burden of austerity: how do changing mortality rates in the UK compare between men and women?

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates across the UK stopped improving in the early 2010s, largely attributable to UK Government's 'austerity' policies. Such policies are thought to disproportionately affect women in terms of greater financial impact and loss of services. The aim here was to investigate whether the mortality impact of austerity-in terms of when rates changed and the scale of excess deaths-has also been worse for women. METHODS: All-cause mortality data by sex, age, Great Britain (GB) nation and deprivation quintile were obtained from national agencies. Trends in age-standardised mortality rates were calculated, and segmented regression analyses used to identify break points between 1981 and 2019. Excess deaths were calculated for 2012-2019 based on comparison of observed deaths with numbers predicted by the linear trend for 1981-2011. RESULTS: Changes in trends were observed for both men and women, especially for those living in the 20% most deprived areas. In those areas, mortality increased between 2010/2012 and 2017/2019 among women but not men. Break points in trends occurred at similar time points. Approximately 335 000 more deaths occurred between 2012 and 2019 than was expected based on previous trends, with the excess greater among men. CONCLUSIONS: It remains unclear whether there are sex differences in UK austerity-related health effects. Nonetheless, this study provides further evidence of adverse trends in the UK and the associated scale of excess deaths. There is a clear need for such policies to be reversed, and for policies to be implemented to protect the most vulnerable in society.

Sport: A Holistic Approach to Lifestyle Medicine.

Sport represents a holistic health tool that unifies multiple pillars of lifestyle medicine. Sport can mitigate both the ongoing health disparities in communities that were present before COVID-19 and those exacerbated after COVID-19. The significance of this recommendation is highlighted by the impact sport participation has on creating healthy relationships, managing stress, and delivering physical activity among diverse populations. Importantly, sport can offer meaning and value to its participants, particularly when COVID-19 has limited people's ability for purposeful activity and social interaction. Clinicians are urged to consider the broad utility of sport for the prevention and treatment of unhealthy behaviors.

Trends in healthy life expectancy in the age of austerity.

BACKGROUND: Worrying changes in life expectancy trends have been observed recently in the UK, largely attributed to austerity policies introduced over the last decade. To incorporate changes to quality, rather than just length of, life, our aim was to describe trends in healthy life expectancy (HLE) for the relevant period. METHODS: In the absence of available long-term trends, we calculated new estimates of HLE for Scotland for the period 1995-2019, using standard HLE methodologies based on mortality and national survey data, and stratified by sex and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: Overall, male and female HLE increased markedly between 1995 and 2009, but then decreased by approximately 2 years between 2011 and 2019. A decline was observed for the most and least deprived groups, but this was larger for those living in the 20% most deprived areas, where the decrease was 3.5 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are further evidence of changing levels of pre-pandemic population health in the UK. An increasing body of UK and international evidence have attributed these changes to UK Government austerity policies. There is an urgent need, therefore, to reverse cuts to social security and protect the income and health of the poorest across all of the UK.

Small Towns, Big Cities: Rural and Urban Disparities Among Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 in the Central Savannah River Area.

BACKGROUND: There is a lack of data surrounding the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among rural and urban communities. This study aims to determine whether there are differences in epidemiologic characteristics and clinical outcomes among individuals with COVID-19 among these communities. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of 155 patients admitted to a single-center tertiary academic hospital located in Augusta, Georgia, with a large proportion of hospitalized patients transferred from or residing in rural and urban counties. Hospitalized adult patients were included in the study if they were admitted to AUMC between March 13, 2020, and June 25, 2020, and had a positive polymerase chain reaction test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 regardless of the presence or absence of symptomatology. Demographics, admission data, and 30-day outcomes were examined overall and by geographical variation. RESULTS: Urban patients were more likely to be admitted to the general medical floor (P = .01), while rural patients were more likely to require an escalation in the level of care within 24 hours of admission (P = .02). In contrast, of the patients who were discharged or expired at day 30, there were no statistically significant differences in either total hospital length of stay or intensive care unit length of stay between the populations. CONCLUSIONS: There may be many social determinants of health that limit a rural patient's ability to seek prompt medical care and contribute to decompensation within the first 24 hours of admission. This study provides insight into the differences in clinical course among patients admitted from different community settings and when accounting for comorbid conditions.

A Multicenter Curricular Intervention to Address Resident Knowledge and Perceptions of Personal Finance.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated internal medicine residents' confidence and knowledge of personal finance, perceptions of burnout, and relations between these issues before and after an educational intervention. METHODS: We surveyed internal medicine residents at two university-based training programs in 2018. We developed and implemented a curriculum at both sites, covering topics of budgeting, saving for retirement, investment options, and the costs of investing. Each site used the same content but different strategies for dissemination. One used a condensed-form lecture series (two 1-hour sessions) and the other used a microlecture series (four 30-minute sessions) series. Residents were resurveyed following the intervention for comparison. RESULTS: The preintervention survey response rate was 41.2% (122/296) and the postintervention response rate was 44.3% (120/271). Postintervention mean scores for personal finance knowledge improved for basic concepts (52.6% vs 39.4%, P < 0.001), mutual fund elements (30.8% vs 19.7%, P < 0.001), investment plans (68.5% vs. 49.2%, P < 0.001), and overall knowledge (50.1% vs 36.1%, P < 0.001). A significantly smaller proportion of residents reported feelings of burnout following the intervention (23.3% vs 36.9%, P = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that residents want to learn about finances. Our brief educational intervention is a practical way to improve overall knowledge. Our intervention suggests that improving knowledge of finance may be associated with decreased feelings of burnout.

Fidelity assessment of nurse-led non-pharmacological package of care for knee pain in the package development phase of a feasibility randomised controlled trial based in secondary care: a mixed methods study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate fidelity of delivery of a nurse-led non-pharmacological complex intervention for knee pain. SETTING: Secondary care. Single-centre study. STUDY DESIGN: Mixed methods study. PARTICIPANTS: Eighteen adults with chronic knee pain. INCLUSION CRITERIA: Age >40 years, knee pain present for longer than 3 months, knee pain for most days of the previous month, at least moderate pain in two of the five domains of Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index pain scale. INTERVENTIONS: Nurse-led non-pharmacological intervention comprising assessment, education, exercise, use of hot/cold treatments, footwear modification, walking aids and weight-loss advice (if required). OUTCOMES: Primary: fidelity of delivery of intervention, secondary: nurses' experience of delivering intervention. METHODS: Each intervention session with every participant was video recorded and formed part of fidelity assessment. Fidelity checklists were completed by the research nurse after each session and by an independent researcher, after viewing the video-recordings blinded to nurse ratings. Fidelity scores (%), percentage agreement and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated. Two semi-structured interviews were conducted with the research nurse. RESULTS: Fourteen participants completed all visits. 62 treatment sessions took place. Nurse self-report and assessor video rating scores for all 62 treatment sessions were included in fidelity assessment. Overall fidelity was higher on nurse self-report (97.7%) than on objective video-rating (84.2%). Percentage agreement between nurse self-report and video-rating was 73.3% (95% CI 71.3 to 75.3). Fidelity was lowest for advice on footwear and walking aids. The nurse reported difficulty advising on thermal treatments, footwear and walking aids, and did not feel confident negotiating achievable and realistic goals with participants. CONCLUSIONS: A trained research nurse can deliver most components of a non-pharmacological intervention for knee pain to a high degree of fidelity. Future research should assess intervention fidelity in a routine clinical setting, and examine its clinical and cost-effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03670706.

The Role of Labor Induction in Racial Disparities in Cesarean Delivery.

We examined the interaction between race and labor induction in cesarean delivery in a cohort of 600,000 deliveries in the Cerner Health Facts database. Black women had higher likelihood cesarean (28.9 vs. 26.5%) and lower likelihood of induction of labor at delivery compared to white women (27.2 vs. 32.5%). Induction modified the association between race and cesarean-Black women (odds ratio=1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.30, 1.43) who were induced had significantly increased odds of cesarean delivery.

Spatial and temporal inequalities in mortality in the USA, 1968-2016.

Previous UK and European research has highlighted important variations in mortality between populations after adjustment for key determinants such as poverty and deprivation. The aim here was to establish whether similar populations could be identified in the US, and to examine changes over time. We employed Poisson regression models to compare county-level mortality with national rates between 1968 and 2016, adjusting for poverty, education, race (a proxy for exposure to racism), population change and deindustrialisation. Results are presented by means of population-weighted cartograms, and highlight widening spatial inequalities in mortality over time, including an urban to rural, and south-westward, shift in areas with the highest levels of such unexplained 'excess' mortality. There is a need to understand the causes of the excess in affected communities, given that it persists after adjustment for such a broad range of important health determinants.

Scaling COVID-19 against inequalities: should the policy response consistently match the mortality challenge?

BACKGROUND: The mortality impact of COVID-19 has thus far been described in terms of crude death counts. We aimed to calibrate the scale of the modelled mortality impact of COVID-19 using age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contribution against other, socially determined, causes of death in order to inform governments and the public. METHODS: We compared mortality attributable to suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality with estimates of mortality from an infectious disease model of COVID-19. We calculated age-standardised mortality rates and life expectancy contributions for the UK and its constituent nations. RESULTS: Mortality from a fully unmitigated COVID-19 pandemic is estimated to be responsible for a negative life expectancy contribution of -5.96 years for the UK. This is reduced to -0.33 years in the fully mitigated scenario. The equivalent annual life expectancy contributions of suicide, drug poisoning and socioeconomic inequality-related deaths are -0.25, -0.20 and -3.51 years, respectively. The negative impact of fully unmitigated COVID-19 on life expectancy is therefore equivalent to 24 years of suicide deaths, 30 years of drug poisoning deaths and 1.7 years of inequality-related deaths for the UK. CONCLUSION: Fully mitigating COVID-19 is estimated to prevent a loss of 5.63 years of life expectancy for the UK. Over 10 years, there is a greater negative life expectancy contribution from inequality than around six unmitigated COVID-19 pandemics. To achieve long-term population health improvements it is therefore important to take this opportunity to introduce post-pandemic economic policies to 'build back better'.

Changing mortality trends in countries and cities of the UK: a population-based trend analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Previously improving life expectancy and all-cause mortality in the UK has stalled since the early 2010s. National analyses have demonstrated changes in mortality rates for most age groups and causes of death, and with deprived populations most affected. The aims here were to establish whether similar changes have occurred across different parts of the UK (countries, cities), and to examine cause-specific trends in more detail. DESIGN: Population-based trend analysis. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Whole populations of countries and selected cities of the UK. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: European age-standardised mortality rates (calculated by cause of death, country, city, year (1981-2017), age group, sex and-for all countries and Scottish cities-deprivation quintiles); changes in rates between 5-year periods; summary measures of both relative (relative index of inequality) and absolute (slope index of inequality) inequalities. RESULTS: Changes in mortality from around 2011/2013 were observed throughout the UK for all adult age groups. For example, all-age female rates decreased by approximately 4%-6% during the 1980s and 1990s, approximately 7%-9% during the 2000s, but by <1% between 2011/2013 and 2015/2017. Equivalent figures for men were 4%-7%, 8%-12% and 1%-3%, respectively. This later period saw increased mortality among the most deprived populations, something observed in all countries and cities analysed, and for most causes of death: absolute and relative inequalities therefore increased. Although similar trends were seen across all parts of the UK, particular issues apply in Scotland, for example, higher and increasing drug-related mortality (with the highest rates observed in Dundee and Glasgow). CONCLUSIONS: The study presents further evidence of changing mortality in the UK. The timing, geography and socioeconomic gradients associated with the changes appear to support suggestions that they may result, at least in part, from UK Government 'austerity' measures which have disproportionately affected the poorest.