A factorial stepwise-clustering input-output model for unveiling water-carbon nexus from multi-policy perspectives.

Water-carbon nexus exerts significant influence on environmental sustainability. The demand-side patterns of water-carbon nexus in supply chains have been extensively conducted. However, there is still research gap in unveiling supply-side complex relationships among various sectors from multi-policy perspectives. In this study, a factorial stepwise-clustering input-output (FSCIO) model is developed to uncover the complicated water-carbon nexus accompanied by analyses of multi-element, multi-sector and multi-policy. This is the first time that input-output analysis (IOA), stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) and factorial analysis (FA) are integrated to explore water-carbon nexus. Water-carbon flows along supply chains are tracked through IOA. SCA helps identify key sectors through evaluating the complexities in water-carbon nexus. FA helps examine different supply-side policies (i.e., input- and allocation-oriented policies, abbreviated as IOP and AOP) through quantifying the effects of multiple sectors and their interactions. We find that China's water-carbon characteristics in supply side differ greatly from those in demand side (e.g., construction is a significant final consumer and other service is more prominent as a primary supplier). The impacts of supply-side policies on different sectors vary significantly and AOP is generally better than IOP in the trade-off between water-carbon pressures mitigation and economic development. The effects of multiple sectors and their interactions on water and carbon shouldn't be neglected and the appropriate policy combinations could have good synergistic effects (e.g., IOP on electricity-gas-water supply, and AOP on chemical, machinery and other service). This study not only provides insight into the multifaceted features of China's water-carbon nexus, but also provides guidance for the supply-side policies.

[Analysis of early diagnosis and prevention techniques for occupational pneumoconiosis based on patent perspectives in China's coal industry].

Occupational pneumoconiosis in the coal industry is an occupational disease that seriously endangers coal miners' health. Early diagnosis and prevention techniques are significant in controlling its incidence rate and reducing its harm. This article takes the patent data related to the early diagnosis and prevention of occupational pneumoconiosis in the coal industry, published from 1985 to 2021, as the research object. It uses tools such as the Derwent Data Analyzer (DDA) software, the Patyee Database, and the PatSnap Database to analyze the technological development trend and characteristics in this field from aspects of growth trend, primary patent holders, IPC classification layout, value, and research and development hotspots. The results show that the number of patent applications in this field indicates a rapid growth trend, mainly in the hands of Shandong Energy Group Co. Ltd., Shandong University of Science and Technology, China University of Mining and Technology, and other institutions or enterprises. Patent technology mainly involves spray dust reduction, dust removal fans, dust masks, and other aspects with high patent value and innovation ability. This article provides a new perspective and reference for preventing, diagnosing, and treating occupational pneumoconiosis in the coal industry.

[Analysis and forecast of burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in Asia countries between 1990 and 2019].

Objective: To analyze the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in major Asian countries and forecast the burden of that in China, which helps to provide reference for the prevention and control of pancreatic cancer. Methods: Data on disease burden of pancreatic cancer among global and major Asian countries from on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 were collected to describe burden distribution through the absolute numbers or standardized rates of incidence, death and disability adjusted life years (DALY) by year, sex and socio-demographic index. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) was used to assess the trend of standardized rate. The proportion of deaths attributable to risk factors for pancreatic cancer in 2019 was used to compare by age, sex and region. ARIMA model was performed with R language to predict change of age-standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer from 2020 to 2029. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the standardized incidence rates of pancreatic cancer in China increased from 3.17/100 000 to 5.78/100 000, and the standardized death rate increased from 3.34/100 000 to 5.99/100 000. The increases exceeded other high-income Asia countries. In the past three decades, the standardized incidence, death and DALY rates of pancreatic cancer in global have increased year by year. Among the major countries in Asia, China has the highest growth rate of disease burden (EAPC of standardized incidence rates=2.32%, 95% CI: 2.10%-2.48% and EAPC of standardized death rate=2.25%, 95% CI: 2.03%-2.42%). In addition, incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China are expected to continue on the rise between 2000 and 2029 by ARIMA model. Incidence rate is expected to increase 15.92% and death rate is expected to increase 15.86%. Conclusions: The standardized incidence and death rates of pancreatic cancer in China increase year by year with an increasing trend for the burden of disease. The disease burden of pancreatic cancer is expected to rise due to the increase and aging of the population. Preventive measures should be adopted to decrease the burden of the pancreatic cancer.

[Study on the effect of AIDS preventive cascade services provided by social organizations for men who have sex with men in China].

Objective: To analyze the effect and main gaps of each stage in the AIDS prevention cascade for men who have sex with men (MSM) provided in intervention projects supported by the China AIDS Fund for non-governmental organizations (CAFNGO) and provide suggestions to improve the quality of cascade services and project management. Methods: Data were collected through the CAFNGO management information system and field interviews to analyze the differences in the number of MSM receiving HIV testing and confirming tests, the newly reported patients, and the number of antiviral treatment (ART) referrals of newly established reported patients among different social organization service areas. A service chain chart was also drawn. Results: Between 2016 and 2020, 1 508 MSM intervention projects were funded by CAFNGO, including 1 183 234 MSM being mobilized to receive HIV testing. However, only 68.8% (1 183 234/1 719 139) of the testing capacity of social organizations was covered by these projects. As a result, 55 783 HIV-positive MSM were detected in preliminary screening, and only 86.6% (48 327/55 783) received confirming tests. The proportion of newly reported infections was 3.8% (45 347/1 183 234). The ratio of antiviral treatment (ART) referrals for newly reported patients between 2017 and 2020 was 89.8% (32 719/36 444). 75.8%(1 143/1 508) of total MSM intervention projects were implemented by community-based organizations (Non-registered civil affairs departments). In comparison, organizations registered in civil affairs departments took up 24.2% (365/1 508) of the total MSM intervention projects. No significant difference was noticed in the proportion of newly reported infected (3.8% and 3.8%) and the ratio of ART referrals (89.7% and 89.9%) between community-based organizations and registered organizations' projects. But these two proportions are significantly different between these two types of organizations in some areas in China. Conclusions: The AIDS prevention cascade established in CAFNGO has effectively promoted the early detection and treatment of infected MSM. However, CAFNGO needs more financial support to extend testing coverage for MSM. Meanwhile, confirmation testing for positives in preliminary screening and ART referrals needs to be improved for newly reported patients. In addition, various capacity building needs to be provided for different social organizations.

[Application of epidemiological methods in health impact assessment].

Health impact assessment (HIA) system has been listed in the Outline of the Healthy China 2030 Plan and the Law of Basic Health Care and Health Promotion of the People's Republic of China, however, the technique guideline of HIA needs to be established and improved. This paper summarizes the applications of different epidemiological methods in HIA and focus on the introduction of the application of ecology model of health social determinants as theory basis in the establishment of HIA system along with the introduction of HIA cases in the world. The applications of epidemiological methods in domestic HIA research are limited. Therefore, appropriate applications of epidemiological methods should be strengthened in HIA guideline and system development, especially the applications of big health data, mobile health techniques, systems epidemiology and implementation science, to facilitate data collection and potential health hazard evaluation and surveillance for HIA, establishment and improvement of HIA system and the implementation of Healthy China Strategy.

[Analysis of risk factors for hyperkalemia in hemodialysis patients and establishment and verification of risk assessment model of hyperkalemia].

Objective: To explore risk factors for hyperkalemia in hemodialysis (HD) patients, and establish and verify a risk assessment model of hyperkalemia in HD patients. Methods: The clinical data of HD patients who were admitted to the Department of Nephrology of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University between April 2020 and January 2021 were retrospectively collected and divided into training dataset and validation dataset by using the conversion-random number generator. In the training dataset, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors for hyperkalemia in HD patients and the factors were scored to establish the risk assessment model. The validation dataset was substituted into the model and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn and the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated to verify the effectiveness of the risk prediction model in predicting hyperkalemia. Results: A total of 502 HD patients were enrolled and further divided into training dataset (n=372) and validation dataset (n=130). There were 268 males and 234 females, with a mean age of (54±13) years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that metabolic acidosis, high potassium diet, history of hyperkalemia, the change of electrocardiogram (ECG), disfunction of vascular access and time interval from last dialysis were risk factors for causing hyperkalemia in patients undergoing HD. Risk assessment model was established based on these risk factors. The AUC of the ROC curve was 0.799. Using 5 as the cut-off value, the sensitivity and specificity for predicting hyperkalemia events was 61.4% and 86.3%, respectively. Conclusion: The current study preliminarily established a risk assessment model for hyperkalemia in HD patients, which can help clinicians manage the potassium level of HD patients.

[Study on the demand of social organizations working for female sex workers regarding project management and capacity building of HIV prevention and treatment].

Objective: To understand the capacity building needs on social organizations providing HIV prevention and treatment services for female sex workers (FSW). Methods: Questionnaires and interview were conducted with the heads of social organizations participating in China AIDS Fund for Non-Governmental Organizations (CAFNGO) project 2017-2018. Data from the CAFNGO's information system were compiled and analyzed using Excel 2016 and SPSS 25.0 software. The distribution of social organizations, availability of funds, and social organizations' needs for capacity building were analyzed. Results: Nationwide, 184 social organizations were involved in project '2017-2018 CAFNGO's FSW field work'. Out of which, 156 answers were valid. Social organizations that participated in the implementation of fund projects were mainly concentrated in the western region, accounting for 44.0% (81/184), with Sichuan, Guangxi, and Yunnan being the majority. However, the eastern part received the most financial support. Social organizations expressed the highest demand for project data collection and analysis, accounting for 68.6% (107/156). Items on risk analysis, response, and quality control project ranked the second, accounting for 64.1% (100/156). Results showed that statistically significant differences were seen on capacity building needs among social organization leaders with different levels of training on management of planning and finance of the project (χ2=5.78,P=0.016;χ2=8.99,P=0.003). Conclusions: Currently, the number of social organizations and the related fund provision concerning HIV prevention and control among FSWs were not consistent in China. Thus, it is necessary to encourage, guide, and support the development of social organizations and satisfy social organizations' needs on capacity-building and planning.

[Cost-effectiveness of anti-tumor associated antigen autoantibody screening for hepatocellular carcinoma in the population with chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis].

Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of anti-tumor associated antigen autoantibody (TAAb) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in cirrhosis population with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Methods: A simulated cohort of 40-year-old patients with CHB cirrhosis was established with a sample size of 10 000. Using TAAb screening alone or TAAb and AFP screening in parallel (TAAb + AFP) as the research strategy, and liver ultrasound and AFP screening in parallel (liver ultrasound + AFP) as the control strategy, the decision analysis Markov model was constructed and the model validity was evaluated. The 6-month cycle was simulated using TreeAge Pro 2020 software. Cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) were calculated. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the two strategies, and sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the uncertainty of results. Results: The Markov model had a total of 11 outcomes, of which 7 were natural outcomes and 4 wereclinical intervention outcomes, and the goodness of fit was 0.969. The lifetime screening cost of TAAb+AFP strategy for HCC screening was 249 612 yuan/case, and the QALY per capita was 7.704 years. Compared with liver ultrasound +AFP strategy (247 805 yuan/case), the total health cost increased by 1 807 yuan/case, and the QALY obtained was 0.014. The ICER was 127 635 yuan /QALY. When the TAAb screening fee was higher than 889.552 yuan, or the discount rate was higher than 0.068, or the antiviral treatment compliance was lower than 45.1%, ICER > 212 676 yuan /QALY. When the single TAAb screening fee was 400-600 yuan, the TAAB+AFP strategy had cost effective value. When the willingness to pay was 70 892, 141 784 and 212 676 yuan /QALY, the probability of cost-effectiveness of TAAb+AFP strategy was 70.6%, 75.3% and 77.8%, respectively. Conclusion: It is cost-effective to use TAAb+AFP for early screening of liver cancer in Chinese population with CHB cirrhosis.

[Comparison of Three CNN Models Applied in Bone Age Assessment of Pelvic Radiographs of Adolescents].

ABSTRACT: Objective To compare the performance of three deep-learning models （VGG19, Inception-V3 and Inception-ResNet-V2） in automatic bone age assessment based on pelvic X-ray radiographs. Methods A total of 962 pelvic X ray radiographs taken from adolescents （481 males, 481 females） aged from 11.0 to 21.0 years in five provinces and cities of China were collected, preprocessed and used as objects of study. Eighty percent of these X ray radiographs were divided into training set and validation set with random sampling method and used for model fitting and hyper-parameters adjustment. Twenty percent were used as test sets, to evaluate the ability of model generalization. The performances of the three models were assessed by comparing the root mean square error （RMSE）, mean absolute error （MAE） and Bland-Altman plots between the model estimates and the chronological ages. Results The mean RMSE and MAE between bone age estimates of the VGG19 model and the chronological ages were 1.29 and 1.02 years, respectively. The mean RMSE and MAE between bone age estimates of the Inception-V3 model and the chronological ages were 1.17 and 0.82 years, respectively. The mean RMSE and MAE between bone age estimates of the Inception-ResNet-V2 model and the chronological ages were 1.11 and 0.84 years, respectively. The Bland-Altman plots showed that the mean value of differences between bone age estimates of Inception-ResNet-V2 model and the chronological ages was the lowest. Conclusion In the automatic bone age assessment of adolescent pelvis, the Inception-ResNet-V2 model performs the best while the Inception-V3 model achieves a similar accuracy as VGG19 model.

[The assessment value of urinary NGAL combined with blood NLR in the early prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning].

Objective: To explore the evaluate of neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) , combined with neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in the early prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning (APP) . Methods: In March 2019, 108 APP patients admitted to Emergency Medicine Department of Hebei Medical University from January 2017 to December 2018 were selected as the observation group, 60 healthy people in the same period were see as the control group according to the results of diagnosis and 28-day survival, the observation group was divided into 51 death group and 57 survival group. The correlation between NGAL, NLR and the death of APP patients was analyzed, to explore the value of NGAL and NLR in predicting the death of APP patients. Results: Compared with the Control group, the NGAL and NLR in the observation group were significantly higher (P<0.01) , and the NGAL and NLR in the death group were significantly higher (P<0.05) . The results showed that NGAL and NLR were positively correlated with the death of APP patients on 28th day, and the Correlation Coefficient was 0.456 and 0.638 at 2nd Day (P<0.01) The area under the ROC curve of NGAL, NLR and their combination were 0.764, 0.869 and 0.905, respectively. Conclusion: The combined detection of NGAL and NLR has important clinical significance in the early prediction of 28-day mortality in APP patients.

[Comparative analysis of comprehensive health status among 31 provinces in China and 134 countries (regions) in 2015].

Objective: To evaluate comprehensive health status of 31 provinces in China and compare with other countries (regions). Methods: Social-demographic index, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in 134 countries (regions) and 31 provinces in China were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. K-means clustering method was used to classify comprehensive health status of various countries (regions) in the world. HemI 1.0.3 software was applied to draw distribution heat maps of social-demographic index, life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in different provinces of Mainland China. Discriminant analysis was used to evaluate comprehensive health status of different provinces in Mainland China. Results: Comprehensive health status of 134 countries (regions) was grouped into category 1-8 from good to poor, and Mainland China was in the category 4. The comprehensive health status of provinces in Mainland China is better in the east coast and poorer in the west inland, among which Shanghai and Beijing were grouped into the category 1, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin into the category 2, Fujian, Liaoning and Shandong into the category 3, Yunnan, Guangxi, Xinjiang and Guizhou into the category 5, Qinghai and Tibet into the category 6, and the rest 16 provinces into the category 4. Conclusion: Comprehensive health status of Mainland China ranked middle to upper level in the world, and health status disparities were observed among different provinces in Mainland China.

[Evaluation of screening accuracy on osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians and its cut-off value in healthy physical examination population].

OBJECTIVE: To explore the screening value of osteoporosis self-assessment tool for Asians (OSTA) and the optimal cut-off value in Chinese healthy physical examination population. METHODS: We selected a healthy physical examination population for bone mineral density screening at the Health Examination Center in Peking University Third Hospital from 2013 to 2016. Quantitative ultrasound (QUS) results were used as the gold standard, and T value ≤-2.5 was defined as osteoporosis patients. Diagnostic test methods were used to analyze the sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio and area under curve (AUC) of different cut points of OSTA. The screening accuracy of OSTA at different cut points was compared and the optimal cut-point value determined. RESULTS: A total of 5 833 subjects were included in the study, with an average age of (48.3±17.5) years and 2 594 women (44.5%). The QUS test showed 403 patients with osteoporosis (6.9% of the total population), 343 female osteoporosis patients (13.22% of the female population). In the whole age group, AUC at the international routine cut-off value (OSTA ≤-1) screening for osteoporosis was 0.815 (95%CI: 0.804-0.825), and screening accuracy was higher in the women (AUC=0.837, 95%CI: 0.823-0.851) than that in the men (AUC=0.767, 95%CI: 0.752-0.781; P<0.05). In the whole age group, when the optimal cut-off value was 0, its AUC 0.842 (95%CI: 0.832-0.851) was significantly higher than that when the cut-off value was -1 (P<0.01), and net reclassification improvement (NRI) increased by 5.5%. In the 40 to 65-year-old group, when OSTA cut-off value ≤0, the screening accuracy was significantly higher (NRI=19.5%, P=0.003) than that when it was -1. CONCLUSION: The OSTA screening tool had good osteoporosis screening value in healthy people, and the screening accuracy in women is higher than that in men. Increasing the screening cut-off value of OSTA would be helpful to improve the screening accuracy in the whole and 40 to 65-year-old population. There may be different optimal cut-off values for different age group population.

Identifying systems delays in assessment, diagnosis, and operative management for testicular torsion in a single-payer health-care system.

INTRODUCTION: Testicular torsion (TT) is a common pediatric urologic emergency. Management of TT is time sensitive and often confirmed on scrotal Doppler ultrasound (DUS). Acquiring DUS, however, can result in delays in the management of TT, affecting testicular salvage rates. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to identify delays in the assessment and diagnosis for patients presenting with TT to a Canadian academic hospital using patient flow analysis. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective review was performed for patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) who received a scrotal DUS to rule out possible TT between 2012 and 2017. The primary outcome measured cycle-time measurements (median time) between points along the clinical flow pathway for a patient with suspected TT. The secondary outcome assessed diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of standard scrotal DUS components (Doppler flow, arterial waveform, heterogeneous echotexture). RESULTS: A total of 609 patients presented with an acute scrotum warranting a scrotal DUS to rule out TT; of which, 46 underwent scrotal exploration. Testicular salvage rate was 82.6% in the series (38 testes salvaged, 8 required orchiectomy). Median time from symptom onset to ED presentation for patients with possible TT was 4 h. After triage, a median of 79.8 min was required for ED physician assessment and an additional 48 min for scrotal DUS to be performed. Absence of Doppler flow on scrotal DUS had a 97.4% PPV for diagnosing TT confirmed during scrotal exploration. DISCUSSION: Almost 4 h of in-ED time is required from triage to surgical intervention for potential TT at the institution. One area of delay is the time needed to conduct a scrotal DUS (48-128 min; Fig. 1). This represents an area of opportunity for patient flow optimization through the use of standardized clinical pathways and diagnostic adjuncts, such as point-of-care ultrasound. This study is limited in its retrospective nature and does not include patients with overt signs of TT who underwent surgical detorsion without need for scrotal DUS. CONCLUSION: Patient flow delays to surgical intervention for patients with TT represent a preventable cause of orchiectomy in young men. This study identifies intervention points in patient-care flow pathways where delays to surgical intervention can be potentially reduced by up to 2 h. The findings support the need for further studies into the optimization of patient flow and management protocols to reduce delays in the diagnosis and management of TT.

[Analysis on funds application of community based organizations involved in HIV/AIDS response and government financial investment in China, 2014].

Objective: To understand the government financial investments to community based organizations (CBO) involved in HIV/AIDS Control and Prevention of China and its influencing factors. Methods: Questionnaire of the situation of CBO involved in HIV/AIDS control and prevention were designed, and filled by the staff of Provincial Health Administrative Departments of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). The research focused on the fields of CBO involved in HIV/AIDS response in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), including intervention on HIV/AIDS high risk population (female sex worker (FSW), man who sex with man (MSM), drug user (DU) and case management and care for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH)). 29 valid questionnaires were collecting, with Shanxi Province and Inner Mongolia Autonomous Regions not filled. Questionnaire included financial supports from local governments, transfer payment from central government for CBO involved in HIV/AIDS response in 2014, and unit cost for CBO involved in HIV/AIDS control and prevention. Multivariate analysis was conducted on the project application and financial investment of community based organizations involved in HIV/AIDS control and prevention in 2014. Results: The total amount of CBO to apply for participation in AIDS prevention and control was 64 482 828 Yuan in 2014. The actual total amount of investment was 50 616 367 Yuan, The investment came from the central government funding, the provincial level government funding, the prefecture and county level government funding investment and other sources of funding. 22 of 28 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) received the funds from the central government finance, and median of investment funds 500 000 Yuan. 15 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) gained the funds from the provincial government finance, and median of investment funds 350 000 Yuan. 12 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) got the funds from the prefecture and county level government finance, and median of investment funds 408 750 Yuan. 12 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) acquired the funds from other sources, and median of investment funds 228 400 Yuan. The median (P(25), P(75)) unit costs of intervention for FSW from 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) was 70 (23, 280) Yuan per year; DU from 14 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) was 83 (44, 200 ) Yuan per year; MSM from 16 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) was 100 (35, 280) Yuan per year; the follow-up and care for PLWH from 17 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) was 200 (45, 500) Yuan per year. Multivariate linear regression analysis results showed that the amount of PLWH in 2014 influenced on the total number of application funds of CBO involved in HIV/AIDS response (b=178.11, 95% CI: 51.86-305.36) and the amount of PLWH (b=77.72, 95% CI: 16.28-139.16), and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the province (b=36.20, 95% CI: 4.60-67.80) impacted financial investment to CBO involved in HIV/AIDS response, respectively. Conclusion: Funds application and financial investment of CBO involved in HIV/AIDS control and prevention were huge. Financial investment from government was main resources for CBO in 2014. The amount of financial investment funds from governments was influenced by the HIV/AIDS epidemic situation and the development level of local economic.

[Influencing factors on healthy life expectancy in adults in Beijing].

OBJECTIVE: To understand the main influencing factors related to healthy life expectancy (HALE) among adults in Beijing. METHODS: The calculation on health-adjusted life expectancy was performed by Sullivan METHODS. Data from the self-reported health survey program on adults in Beijing 2012 was gathered. Hierarchical ordered probit model was used to estimate the severity-weighted prevalence of disability and then combined with the period life table to obtain the HALE. Factors associated with the severity-adjusted prevalence of the disabled were analyzed under the generalized additive models (GAM). RESULTS: The main influencing factors of HALE would include age (t=40.351, P<0.001), sex (t=9.689, P<0.001), levels of education (t=5.021, P< 0.001), exercise (t=5.487, P<0.001) and alcohol intake (t=-2.380, P=0.017) etc. The influence of per capita monthly income (χ(2) =3.949, P=0.044) showed as non-linear. CONCLUSIONS: Levels of income would directly influence the severity-weighted prevalence of the disability, which also affecting the HALE. Programs on improving healthy life style and health care in women should be promoted.

Computation of Rate Constants for Diffusion of Small Ligands to and from Buried Protein Active Sites.

The diffusion of ligands to actives sites of proteins is essential to enzyme catalysis and many cellular signaling processes. In this contribution we review our recently developed methodology for calculation of rate constants for diffusion and binding of small molecules to buried protein active sites. The diffusive dynamics of the ligand obtained from molecular dynamics simulation is coarse grained and described by a Markov state model. Diffusion and binding rate constants are then obtained either from the reactive flux formalism or by fitting the time-dependent population of the Markov state model to a phenomenological rate law. The method is illustrated by applications to diffusion of substrate and inhibitors in [NiFe] hydrogenase, CO-dehydrogenase, and myoglobin. We also discuss a recently developed sensitivity analysis that allows one to identify hot spots in proteins, where mutations are expected to have the strongest effects on ligand diffusion rates.

Measuring the impact of non-monetary incentives on facility delivery in rural Zambia: a clustered randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: In Zambia, only 56% of rural women deliver in a health facility, and improving facility delivery rates is a priority of the Zambian government. 'Mama kit' incentives - small packages of childcare items provided to mothers conditional on delivering their baby in a facility - may encourage facility delivery. This study measured the impact and cost-effectiveness of a US$4 mama kit on rural facility delivery rates in Zambia. METHODS: A clustered randomised controlled trial was used to measure the impact of mama kits on facility delivery rates in thirty rural health facilities in Serenje and Chadiza districts. Facility-level antenatal care and delivery registers were used to measure the percentage of women attending antenatal care who delivered at a study facility during the intervention period. Results from the trial were then used to model the cost-effectiveness of mama kits at-scale in terms of cost per death averted. RESULTS: The mama kits intervention resulted in a statistically significant increase in facility delivery rates. The multivariate logistic regression found that the mama kits intervention increased the odds of delivering at a facility by 63% (P-value < 0.01, 95% CI: 29%, 106%), or an increase of 9.9 percentage points, yielding a cost-effectiveness of US$5183 per death averted. CONCLUSIONS: This evaluation confirms that low-cost mama kits can be a cost-effective intervention to increase facility delivery rates in rural Zambia. Mama kits alone are unlikely to completely solve safe delivery challenges but should be embedded in larger maternal and child health programmes.

Gas chromatograph-surface acoustic wave for quick real-time assessment of blood/exhaled gas ratio of propofol in humans.

BACKGROUND: Although pilot studies have reported that exhaled propofol concentrations can reflect intraoperative plasma propofol concentrations in an individual, the blood/exhaled partial pressure ratio RBE varies between patients, and the relevant factors have not yet been clearly addressed. No efficient method has been reported for the quick evaluation of RBE and its association with inter-individual variables. METHODS: We proposed a novel method that uses a surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensor combined with a fast gas chromatograph (GC) to simultaneously detect propofol concentrations in blood and exhaled gas in 28 patients who were receiving propofol i.v. A two-compartment pharmacokinetic (PK) model was established to simulate propofol concentrations in exhaled gas and blood after a bolus injection. Simulated propofol concentrations for exhaled gas and blood were used in a linear regression model to evaluate RBE. RESULTS: The fast GC-SAW system showed reliability and efficiency for simultaneous quantitative determination of propofol in blood (correlation coefficient R(2)=0.994, P<0.01) and exhaled gas (R(2)=0.991, P<0.01). The evaluation of RBE takes <50 min for a patient. The distribution of RBE in 28 patients showed inter-individual differences in RBE (median 1.27; inter-quartile range 1.07-1.59). CONCLUSIONS: Fast GC-SAW, which analyses samples in seconds, can perform both rapid monitoring of exhaled propofol concentrations and fast analysis of blood propofol concentrations. The proposed method allows early determination of the coefficient RBE in individuals. Further studies are required to quantify the distribution of RBE in a larger cohort and assess the effect of other potential factors. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChiCTR-ONC-13003291.

Quantitative assessment of spinal cord perfusion by using contrast-enhanced ultrasound in a porcine model with acute spinal cord contusion.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify spinal cord perfusion by using contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) in a porcine model with acute spinal cord injury. METHODS: Microcirculatory changes of acute spinal cord injury were shown by CEUS in a porcine model with spinal cord contusion at three selected time points, coupling with conventional ultrasound (US) and Color Doppler US (CDFI). Time-intensity curves and perfusion parameters were also obtained by autotracking contrast quantification (ACQ) software in the epicenter of contusion site, adjacent region and distant region, respectively. Neurologic and histologic examinations were used to confirm the severity of injury. RESULTS: Conventional US revealed the spinal cord was hypoechoic and homogeneous, whereas the dura mater, pia mater and cerebral aqueduct were hyperechoic. On CDFI intramedullary blood vessels were displayed as segmental and columnar. It was homogeneous on CEUS. After spinal cord contusion, the injured region on gray scale US was hyperechoic. CDFI demonstrated intramedullary blood vessels of adjacent region had increased and dilated during the observation period. On CEUS the epicenter of contusion site was hypoperfusion, whereas its adjacent region was hyperperfusion compared with the distant region. Quantitative analysis showed that peak intensity decreased in epicenters of contusion but increased in adjacent regions significantly at all time points (P<0.05). Evaluation of neurological function for post-contusion demonstrated significantly deterioration in comparison before injury (P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: CEUS is a practical technique that provides overall views for evaluating microcirculatory pattern in spinal cord injury. Quantitative analysis shows the efficacy in assessment of perfusion changes after spinal cord injury.

Predicting preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey.

PURPOSE: To develop and test functions for predicting the preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey. METHODS: This study was a secondary analysis of data collected in a population health survey in which respondents (n = 7,529) completed both the SF-36 and the SF-8 questionnaires. We examined seven ordinary least-square estimators for their performance in predicting SF-6D scores from the SF-8 at both the individual and the group levels. RESULTS: In general, all functions performed similarly well in predicting SF-6D scores, and the predictions at the group level were better than predictions at the individual level. At the individual level, 42.5-51.5% of prediction errors were smaller than the minimally important difference (MID) of the SF-6D scores, depending on the function specifications, while almost all prediction errors of the tested functions were smaller than the MID of SF-6D at the group level. At both individual and group levels, the tested functions predicted lower than actual scores at the higher end of the SF-6D scale. CONCLUSIONS: Our study developed functions to generate preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey, the first of its kind. Further research is needed to evaluate the performance and validity of the prediction functions.