LiverRisk score: An accurate, cost-effective tool to predict fibrosis, liver-related, and diabetes-related mortality in the general population.

BACKGROUND: Noninvasive and early assessment of liver fibrosis is of great significance and is challenging. We aimed to evaluate the predictive performance and cost-effectiveness of the LiverRisk score for liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. METHODS: The general population from the NHANES 2017-March 2020, NHANES 1999-2018, and UK Biobank 2006-2010 were included in the cross-sectional cohort (n = 3,770), along with the NHANES follow-up cohort (n = 25,317) and the UK Biobank follow-up cohort (n = 17,259). The cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using TreeAge Pro software. Liver stiffness measurements ≥10 kPa were defined as compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). FINDINGS: Compared to conventional scores, the LiverRisk score had significantly better accuracy and calibration in predicting liver fibrosis, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.76 (0.72-0.79) for cACLD. According to the updated thresholds of LiverRisk score (6 and 10), we reclassified the population into three groups: low, medium, and high risk. The AUCs of LiverRisk score for predicting liver-related and diabetes-related mortality at 5, 10, and 15 years were all above 0.8, with better performance than the Fibrosis-4 score. Furthermore, compared to the low-risk group, the medium-risk and high-risk groups in the two follow-up cohorts had a significantly higher risk of liver-related and diabetes-related mortality. Finally, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for LiverRisk score compared to FIB-4 was USD $18,170 per additional quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The LiverRisk score is an accurate, cost-effective tool to predict liver fibrosis and liver-related and diabetes-related mortality in the general population. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (nos. 82330060, 92059202, and 92359304); the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2023767a); the Fundamental Research Fund of Southeast University (3290002303A2); Changjiang Scholars Talent Cultivation Project of Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University (2023YJXYYRCPY03); and the Research Personnel Cultivation Program of Zhongda Hospital Southeast University (CZXM-GSP-RC125).

Cross-country health inequalities of four common nutritional deficiencies among children, 1990 to 2019: data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional deficiencies remain serious medical and public health issues worldwide, especially in children. This study aims to analyze cross-country inequality in four common nutritional deficiencies (protein-energy malnutrition, dietary iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency and iodine deficiency) among children from 1990 to 2019 based on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data. METHODS: Prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) data as measures of four nutritional deficiency burdens in people aged 0 to 14 years were extracted from the GBD Results Tool. We analyzed temporal trends in prevalence by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC) and quantified cross-country inequalities in disease burden using the slope index. RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rates of dietary iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency and iodine deficiency decreased, with AAPCs of -0.14 (-0.15 to -0.12), -2.77 (-2.96 to -2.58), and -2.17 (-2.3 to -2.03) from 1999 to 2019, respectively. Significant reductions in socio-demographic index (SDI)-related inequality occurred in protein-energy malnutrition and vitamin A deficiency, while the health inequality for dietary iron deficiency and iodine deficiency remained basically unchanged. The age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates of the four nutritional deficiencies decreased as the SDI and healthcare access and quality index increased. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of nutritional deficiency has decreased since 1990, but cross-country health inequalities still exist. More efficient public health measures are needed to reduce disease burdens, particularly in low-SDI countries/territories.

Energy financing, energy projects retrofit and energy poverty: a scenario-analysis approach for energy project cost estimation and energy price determination.

The research aims to determine the nexus of energy projects retrofit and poverty under two scenarios: energy project cost estimation and energy price determination. Households in rural areas of northern China are now required to switch from coal to cleaner heating options, including natural gas and electricity, as part of a government-led clean heating initiative. This initiative significantly increased the heating expense for participating homes, even when substantial subsidies were applied. We surveyed a large number of northern Chinese households to learn more about the rise in energy insecurity that has been attributed to government action. Our research shows that switching to electricity and gas from coal considerably worsens energy poverty in several ways, whereas switching to clean coal improves the situation. According to an econometric study, changes in energy poverty reveal heterogeneity in several ways. There is little change in Beijing, while the considerably less developed province of Hebei to the north sees a 75% rise. Energy poverty is more common in families with poorer incomes, lower levels of education, and smaller sizes. People who lack resources to insulate their homes will feel the effects more acutely. These results support the idea that low-income families would suffer disproportionately under a "one policy for all" mandate. For policymakers working on energy transition strategies for a low-carbon economy, it highlights the need to consider the distributional impact.

Prevalence, risk factors, and management of asthma in China: a national cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a common chronic airway disease worldwide. Despite its large population size, China has had no comprehensive study of the national prevalence, risk factors, and management of asthma. We therefore aimed to estimate the national prevalence of asthma in a representative sample of the Chinese population. METHODS: A representative sample of 57 779 adults aged 20 years or older was recruited for the national cross-sectional China Pulmonary Health (CPH) study using a multi-stage stratified sampling method with parameters derived from the 2010 census. Ten Chinese provinces, representative of all socioeconomic settings, from six geographical regions were selected, and all assessments were done in local health centres. Exclusion criteria were temporary residence, inability to take a spirometry test, hospital treatment of cardiovascular conditions or tuberculosis, and pregnancy and breastfeeding. Asthma was determined on the basis of a self-reported history of diagnosis by a physician or by wheezing symptoms in the preceding 12 months. All participants were assessed with a standard asthma questionnaire and were classed as having or not having airflow limitation through pulmonary function tests before and after the use of a bronchodilator (400 µg of salbutamol). Risk factors for asthma were examined by multivariable-adjusted analyses done in all participants for whom data on the variables of interest were available. Disease management was assessed by the self-reported history of physician diagnosis, treatments, and hospital visits in people with asthma. FINDINGS: Between June 22, 2012, and May 25, 2015, 57 779 participants were recruited into the CPH study. 50 991 (21 446 men and 29 545 women) completed the questionnaire survey and had reliable post-bronchodilator pulmonary function test results and were thus included in the final analysis. The overall prevalence of asthma in our sample was 4·2% (95% CI 3·1-5·6), representing 45·7 million Chinese adults. The prevalence of asthma with airflow limitation was 1·1% (0·9-1·4), representing 13·1 million adults. Cigarette smoking (odds ratio [OR] 1·89, 95% CI 1·26-2·84; p=0·004), allergic rhinitis (3·06, 2·26-4·15; p<0·0001), childhood pneumonia or bronchitis (2·43, 1·44-4·10; p=0·002), parental history of respiratory disease (1·44, 1·02-2·04; p=0·040), and low education attainment (p=0·045) were associated with prevalent asthma. In 2032 people with asthma, only 28·8% (95% CI 19·7-40·0) reported ever being diagnosed by a physician, 23·4% (13·9-36·6) had a previous pulmonary function test, and 5·6% (3·1-9·9) had been treated with inhaled corticosteroids. Furthermore, 15·5% (11·4-20·8) people with asthma reported at least one emergency room visit and 7·2% (4·9-10·5) at least one hospital admission due to exacerbation of respiratory symptoms within the preceding year. INTERPRETATION: Asthma is prevalent but largely undiagnosed and undertreated in China. It is crucial to increase the awareness of asthma and disseminate standardised treatment in clinical settings to reduce the disease burden. FUNDING: National Key R&D Program of China, Ministry of Science and Technology of China; the Special Research Foundation for Public Welfare of Health, Ministry of Health of China; the Chinese National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control; and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.