Longitudinal varying coefficient single-index model with censored covariates.

It is of interest to health policy research to estimate the population-averaged longitudinal medical cost trajectory from initial cancer diagnosis to death, and understand how the trajectory curve is affected by patient characteristics. This research question leads to a number of statistical challenges because the longitudinal cost data are often non-normally distributed with skewness, zero-inflation, and heteroscedasticity. The trajectory is nonlinear, and its length and shape depend on survival, which are subject to censoring. Modeling the association between multiple patient characteristics and nonlinear cost trajectory curves of varying lengths should take into consideration parsimony, flexibility, and interpretation. We propose a novel longitudinal varying coefficient single-index model. Multiple patient characteristics are summarized in a single-index, representing a patient's overall propensity for healthcare use. The effects of this index on various segments of the cost trajectory depend on both time and survival, which is flexibly modeled by a bivariate varying coefficient function. The model is estimated by generalized estimating equations with an extended marginal mean structure to accommodate censored survival time as a covariate. We established the pointwise confidence interval of the varying coefficient and a test for the covariate effect. The numerical performance was extensively studied in simulations. We applied the proposed methodology to medical cost data of prostate cancer patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare-Linked Database.

Preclinical assessment of IL-1ß primed human umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells for tendon functional repair through TGF-ß/IL-10 signaling.

Background: Inadequate repair capacity and disturbed immune compartments are the main pathological causes of tendinopathy. Transplantation of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) become an effective clinic option to alleviate tendinopathy. Interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß) could confer on MSCs enhanced immunoregulatory capability to remodel the repair microenvironment favoring tissue repair. Therefore, IL-1ß activated UC-MSCs (1ßUC-MSCs) may exert favorable efficacy in promoting tendon repair in a preclinical tendinopathy rat model. Methods: Tendon-derived stem cells (TDSCs) were isolated and characterized. In vitro, the levels of immunoregulatory-related cytokines such as IL-1ß, IL-6, IL-10, and TGF-ß secreted by 1ßUC-MSCs and unprimed UC-MSCs was measured. And tendon-specific markers expressed by TDSCs cultured with primed cultured medium (CM) or unprimed CM were detected. In vivo, Achilles tendinopathy was induced by 30 µL collagenase I injection in Sprague Dawley rats. One week later, the rats were randomly injected with UC-MSCs primed with IL-1ß (106 cells per tendon), UC-MSCs, or PBS. After rats were sacrificed, histological evaluation, electron microscopy, biomechanical tests, gait performance were conducted to evaluate the structural and functional recovery of Achilles tendons. The inflammation and metabolic state of the extracellular matrix, and the potential mechanism were assessed by immunohistochemical staining and Western blot. Results: UC-MSCs were activated by IL-1ß to secrete higher levels of IL-10 and TGF-ß while the secretion levels of IL-6 and IL-1ß were not changed significantly, promoting a higher expression level of COL I and TNMD in TDSCs under proinflammatory environment. In vivo, the transplanted 1ßUC-MSCs could survive up to 5 weeks after injection with tenogenic differentiation and improved tendon healing histologically semi-quantified by modified Bonar scores. This structural regeneration was further confirmed by observation of ultrastructural morphology, and led to good functional recovery including improved biomechanical properties and gait performance. During this process, the inflammatory response and metabolism of the extracellular matrix was improved through TGF-ß/IL-10 pathway. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the transplantation of UC-MSCs activated by IL-1ß exhibited satisfactory ability for promoting tendon functional repair in a tendinopathy rat model. During this process, the balance of inflammatory response and extracellular matrix metabolism was remodeled, and the TGF-ß/Smad2/3 and IL-10 signaling pathways were activated simultaneously. We cautiously conclude that the IL-1ß primed UC-MSCs could be a promising strategy for enhancing the ability of MSCs to treat tendinopathy.

Comparisons of Medical Cost Trajectories Between Non-Hispanic Black and Non-Hispanic White Patients With Newly Diagnosed Localized Prostate Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: This study applied a recently developed statistical method to compare the mean cost trajectories between non-Hispanic White (NHW) and non-Hispanic Black (NHB) patients with localized prostate cancer conditioning on patients' survival. METHODS: In this observational study, we modeled cost trajectories of NHW and NHB patients with localized prostate cancer for 3 survival durations: 24, 48, and 72 months. We also compared the cost trajectories between NHW and NHB, stratified by comorbidities scores. RESULTS: We find that the mean cost trajectories of NHB were significantly higher than the trajectories of NHW in the last 12 months before death, regardless of the survival duration and patients' baseline comorbidity scores. For patients with comorbidity score ≥2, mean cost trajectories within the first year of diagnosis for NHB were significantly higher than those for NHW, except for the subgroup of patients with comorbidity 2-3 and whose survival length was 72 months. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested that a higher proportion of NHB patients with high comorbidity scores are likely contribute to their higher end-of-life costs than those for NHW patients. To narrow the gap in healthcare-related financial burden between NHB and NHW patients with localized prostate cancer, policy makers need to explore different strategies to better manage comorbidities.

Statistical modeling of longitudinal medical cost trajectory: renal cell cancer care cost analyses.

Estimating the current cost of cancer care is important to health policy makers. An indispensable step in cost projection is to estimate cost trajectories from an incident cohort of cancer patients using longitudinal medical cost data, accounting for terminal events such as death, and right censoring due to loss of follow-up. Since the cost of cancer care and survival are correlated, a scientifically meaningful quantity for inference in this context is the mean cost trajectory conditional on survival. We propose a two-stage semiparametric approach to estimate the longitudinal cost trajectories from a joint model of longitudinal medical costs and survival. The longitudinal cost trajectories corresponding to various survival times form a bivariate surface in a triangular area. The cost trajectories are estimated using the tensor products of discretized measurement time and survival, as well as effective ridge penalties for data in 2D arrays. The proposed approach balances the practical considerations of model flexibility, statistical efficiency, and computational tractability. We used the proposed method to estimate the cost trajectories of renal cell cancer patients using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database.