What is the cost-effectiveness of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens? An economic evaluation of a federal policy intervention among 235 million adults in the USA.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing obesity-associated cancer burdens in the USA. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov cohort state-transition model. SETTING: Policy intervention. PARTICIPANTS: A modelled population of 235 million adults aged ≥20 years in 2015-2016. INTERVENTIONS: The impact of menu calorie labelling on reducing 13 obesity-associated cancers among US adults over a lifetime was evaluated for: (1) effects on consumer behaviours; and (2) additional effects on industry reformulation. The model integrated nationally representative demographics, calorie intake from restaurants, cancer statistics and estimates on associations of policy with calorie intake, dietary change with body mass index (BMI) change, BMI with cancer rates, and policy and healthcare costs from published literature. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted new cancer cases and cancer deaths and net costs (in 2015 US$) among the total population and demographic subgroups were determined. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from societal and healthcare perspectives were assessed and compared with the threshold of US$150 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). RESULTS: Considering consumer behaviour alone, this policy was associated with 28 000 (95% UI 16 300 to 39 100) new cancer cases and 16 700 (9610 to 23 600) cancer deaths averted, 111 000 (64 800 to 158 000) QALYs gained, and US$1480 (884 to 2080) million saved in cancer-related medical costs among US adults. The policy was associated with net cost savings of US$1460 (864 to 2060) million and US$1350 (486 to 2260) million from healthcare and societal perspectives, respectively. Additional industry reformulation would substantially increase policy impact. Greater health gains and cost savings were predicted among young adults, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings suggest that menu calorie labelling is associated with lower obesity-related cancer burdens and reduced healthcare costs. Policymakers may prioritise nutrition policies for cancer prevention in the USA.

Disparities in substance use treatment retention: An exploration of reasons for discharge from publicly funded treatment.

Although Delaware is the seventh smallest state in the country (including Washington, D.C.) in terms of population size, it has the second highest drug overdose death rate. The Delaware Division of Substance Abuse and Mental Health has increased attention in identifying disparities in treatment outcomes. We explored reasons for discharge from publicly-funded treatment in Delaware with special attention to populations at risk for health inequities, with a focus on covariates of treatment non-completion. Using secondary data collected from publicly-funded treatment providers, we analyzed data from individuals that were admitted to substance use treatment between 2015 and 2019 and had been discharged in 2019. We did this by using logistic and multinomial regression, focusing on non-completion treatment outcomes such as failure to meet requirements, loss of contact, and treatment refusal. Clients who were Black or African American, compared to white clients, were more likely to be lost contact with, administratively discharged, or marked as failing to meet treatment requirements than having a completed treatment discharge. Women were 30% less likely than men to have "failed to meet treatment requirements" compared to completing treatment. Further investigation is needed into these patterns. While treatment quality cannot be assessed using this data, the results point to a need for closer study of disparities in treatment related to race, ethnicity, gender, employment, criminal justice involvement, and type of drug used. Treatment providers should be made aware of culturally informed care, as well as client-created goals, in order to reduce disparities in exit from treatment.

Valuing the cross-sector benefits from improving youth health to drive investment in place-based preventive interventions in the US: A simulation modeling study.

Healthcare payment reform has not produced incentives for investing in place-based, or population-level, upstream preventive interventions. This article uses economic modeling to estimate the long-term benefits to different sectors associated with improvements in population health indicators in childhood. This information can motivate policymakers to invest in prevention and provide guidance for cross-sector contracting to align incentives for implementing place-based preventive interventions. A benefit-cost model developed by the Washington State Institute for Public Policy was used to estimate total and sector-specific benefits expected from improvements to nine different population health indicators at ages 17 and 18. The magnitudes of improvement used in the model were comparable to those that could be achieved by high-quality implementation of evidence-based population-level preventive interventions. Benefits accruing throughout the lifecycle and over a ten-year time horizon were modelled. Intervention effect sizes of 0.10 and 0.20 demonstrated substantial long-term benefits for eight of the nine outcomes measured. At an effect size of 0.10, the median lifecycle benefit per participant across the ten indicators was $3080 (ranged: $93 to $14,220). The median over a 10-year time horizon was $242 (range: $14 to $1357). Benefits at effect sizes of 0.20 were approximately double. Policymakers may be able to build will for additional investment based on these cross-sector returns and communities may be able to capture these cross-sector benefits through contracting to better align incentives for implementing and sustaining place-based preventive interventions.

Introducing the MAVEN Leadership Training Initiative to diversify the scientific workforce.

Addressing gender and racial-ethnic disparities at all career stages is a priority for the research community. In this article, we focus on efforts to encourage mid-career women, particularly women of color, to move into leadership positions in science and science policy. We highlight the need to strengthen leadership skills for the critical period immediately following promotion to associate/tenured professor - when formal career development efforts taper off while institutional demands escalate - and describe a program called MAVEN that has been designed to teach leadership skills to mid-career women scientists, particularly those from underrepresented groups.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Nutrition Facts Added-Sugar Labeling and Obesity-Associated Cancer Rates in the US.

Importance: Obesity-associated cancer burdens are increasing in the US. Nutrition policies, such as the Nutrition Facts added-sugar labeling, may reduce obesity-associated cancer rates. Objective: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Nutrition Facts added-sugar labeling and obesity-associated cancer rates in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: A probabilistic cohort state-transition model was used to conduct an economic evaluation of added-sugar labeling and 13 obesity-associated cancers among 235 million adults aged 20 years or older by age, sex, and race/ethnicity over a median follow-up of 34.4 years. Policy associations were considered in 2 scenarios: with consumer behaviors and with additional industry reformulation. The model integrated nationally representative population demographics, diet, and cancer statistics; associations of policy intervention with diet, diet change and body mass index, and body mass index with cancer risk; and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Data were analyzed from January 8, 2019, to May 6, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Net costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio were estimated from societal and health care perspectives. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses incorporated uncertainty in input parameters and generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Results: Based on consumer behaviors, the policy was associated with a reduction of 30 000 (95% UI, 21 600-39 300) new cancer cases and 17 100 (95% UI, 12 400-22 700) cancer deaths, a gain of 116 000 (95% UI, 83 800-153 000) quality-adjusted life-years, and a saving of $1600 million (95% UI, $1190 million-$2030 million) in medical costs associated with cancer care among US adults over a lifetime. The policy was associated with a savings of $704 million (95% UI, $44.5 million-$1450 million) from the societal perspective and $1590 million (95% UI, $1180 million-$2020 million) from the health care perspective. Additional industry reformulation to reduce added-sugar amounts in packaged foods and beverages would double the impact. Greater health gains and cost savings were expected among young adults, women, and non-Hispanic Black individuals than other population subgroups. Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the added-sugar labeling is associated with reduced costs and lower rates of obesity-associated cancers. Policymakers may consider and prioritize nutrition policies for cancer prevention in the US.

Trends and sociodemographic disparities in sugary drink consumption among adults in New York City, 2009-2017.

Despite efforts to decrease sugary drink consumption, sugary drinks remain the largest single source of added sugars in diets in the United States. This study aimed to examine trends in sugary drink consumption among adults in New York City (NYC) over the past decade by key sociodemographic factors. We used data from the 2009-2017 NYC Community Health Survey to examine trends in sugary drink consumption overall, and across different age, gender, and racial/ethnic subgroups. We conducted a test of trend to examine the significance of change in mean sugary drink consumption over time. We also conducted multiple zero-inflated negative binomial regression to identify the association between different sociodemographic and neighborhood factors and sugary drink consumption. Sugary drink consumption decreased from 2009 to 2014 from 0.97 to 0.69 servings per day (p < 0.001), but then plateaued from 2014 to 2017 (p = 0.01). Although decreases were observed across all age, gender and racial/ethnic subgroups, the largest decreases over this time period were observed among 18-24 year old (1.75 to 1.22 servings per day, p < 0.001); men (1.12 to 0.86 servings per day, p < 0.001); Blacks (1.45 to 1.14 servings per day, p < 0.001); and Hispanics (1.26 to 0.86 servings per day, p < 0.001). Despite these decreases, actual mean consumption remains highest in these same sociodemographic subgroups. Although overall sugary drink consumption has been declining, the decline has slowed in more recent years. Further, certain age, gender and racial/ethnic groups still consume disproportionately more sugary drinks than others. More research is needed to understand and address the root causes of disparities in sugary drink consumption.

WIC Food Package Changes: Trends in Childhood Obesity Prevalence.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association of the 2009 changes to the US Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) food package and childhood obesity trends. We hypothesized that the food package change reduced obesity among children participating in WIC, a population that has been especially vulnerable to the childhood obesity epidemic. METHODS: We used an interrupted time-series design with repeated cross-sectional measurements of state-specific obesity prevalence among WIC-participating 2- to 4-year-old children from 2000 to 2014. We used multilevel linear regression models to estimate the trend in obesity prevalence for states before the WIC package revision and to test whether the trend in obesity prevalence changed after the 2009 WIC package revision, adjusting for changes in demographics. In a secondary analysis, we adjusted for changes in macrosomia and high prepregnancy BMI. RESULTS: Before the 2009 WIC food package change, the prevalence of obesity across states among 2- to 4-year-old WIC participants was increasing by 0.23 percentage points annually (95% confidence interval: 0.17 to 0.29; P < .001). After 2009, the trend was reversed (-0.34 percentage points per year; 95% confidence interval: -0.42 to -0.25; P < .001). Changes in sociodemographic and other obesity risk factors did not account for this change in the trend in obesity prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: The 2009 WIC food package change may have helped to reverse the rapid increase in obesity prevalence among WIC participants observed before the food package change.

Timely, Granular, and Actionable: Informatics in the Public Health 3.0 Era.

Ensuring the conditions for all people to be healthy, though always the core mission of public health, has evolved in approaches in response to the changing epidemiology and challenges. In the Public Health 3.0 era, multisectorial efforts are essential in addressing not only infectious or noncommunicable diseases but also upstream social determinants of health. In this article, we argue that actionable, geographically granular, and timely intelligence is an essential infrastructure for the protection of our health today. Even though local and state efforts are key, there are substantial federal roles in accelerating data access, connecting existing data systems, providing guidance, incentivizing nonproprietary analytic tools, and coordinating measures that matter most.

Public Health 3.0: A Call to Action for Public Health to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century.

Public health is what we do together as a society to ensure the conditions in which everyone can be healthy. Although many sectors play key roles, governmental public health is an essential component. Recent stressors on public health are driving many local governments to pioneer a new Public Health 3.0 model in which leaders serve as Chief Health Strategists, partnering across multiple sectors and leveraging data and resources to address social, environmental, and economic conditions that affect health and health equity. In 2016, the US Department of Health and Human Services launched the Public Health 3.0 initiative and hosted listening sessions across the country. Local leaders and community members shared successes and provided insight on actions that would ensure a more supportive policy and resource environment to spread and scale this model. This article summarizes the key findings from those listening sessions and recommendations to achieve Public Health 3.0.

Nutrition Quality of US School Snack Foods: A First Look at 2011-2014 Bid Records in 8 School Districts.

BACKGROUND: As part of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act, snacks, and desserts sold in K-12 schools as of the 2014-2015 school year are required to meet the "Smart Snacks" nutritional guidelines. Although studies exist in tracking progress in local and national efforts, the proportion of snack food procured by school districts compliant with the Smart Snacks standard prior to its full implementation is unknown. METHODS: We repurposed a previously untapped database, Interflex, of public bid records to examine the nutritional quality of snacks and desserts procured by school districts. We selected 8 school districts with at least 90% complete data each year during 2011-2012, 2012-2013, and 2013-2014 school years and at locations across different regions of the United States. We quantified the amount of calories and sugar of each product contained in the won bids based on available online sources and determined whether the produce complied with Smart Snack guidelines. RESULTS: In all 8 districts (snack expenditure analyzed ranging from $152,000 to $4.4 million), at least 50% of snack bids were compliant with the US Department of Agriculture Smart Snacks standard during the 2013-2014 school year. Across sampled districts, we observed a general trend in lower caloric density (kcal per product) and sugar density (grams of sugar per product) over a 3-year period. CONCLUSIONS: Many districts across the country have made headway in complying with the Smart Snack guidelines, though gaps remain.

Cost-effectiveness of a Nutrition Education Curriculum Intervention in Elementary Schools.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of an obesity prevention nutrition education curriculum (Food, Health, & Choices) as delivered to all New York City fifth-grade public school students over 1 year. METHODS: This study is a standard cost-effectiveness analysis from a societal perspective, with a 3% discount rate and a no-intervention comparator, as recommended by the US Panel on Cost-effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Costs of implementation, administration, and future obesity-related medical costs were included. Effectiveness was based on a cluster-randomized, controlled trial in 20 public schools during the 2012-2013 school year and linked to published estimates of childhood-to-adulthood body mass index trajectories using a decision analytic model. RESULTS: The Food, Health, & Choices intervention was estimated to cost $8,537,900 and result in 289 fewer males and 350 fewer females becoming obese (0.8% of New York City fifth-grade public school students), saving 1,599 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and $8,098,600 in direct medical costs. Food, Health, & Choices is predicted to be cost-effective at $275/QALY (95% confidence interval, -$2,576/QALY to $2,084/QALY) with estimates up to $6,029/QALY in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: This cost-effectiveness model suggests that a nutrition education curriculum in public schools is effective and cost-effective in reducing childhood obesity, consistent with the authors' hypothesis and previous literature. Future research should assess the feasibility and sustainability of scale-up.

Deconstructing race and gender differences in adolescent obesity: Oaxaca-blinder decomposition.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze sources of racial and gender disparities in adolescent obesity prevalence in the United States using Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. METHODS: Data were obtained from the National Youth Physical Activity and Nutrition Study, a 2010 nationally representative study of 9th-12th grade students. Obesity status was determined from objective height and weight data; weight-related behaviors and school, home, and environmental data were collected via questionnaire. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was used to independently analyze racial and gender obesity prevalence differences (PD), i.e., comparing Black girls to White girls, and Black girls to Black boys. RESULTS: Overall, measured characteristics accounted for 46.8% of the racial PD but only 11.9% of the gender PD. Racial PD was associated with Black girls having less fruit/vegetable access at home, obtaining lunch at school more often, and playing fewer sports than White girls. Gender PD was associated with differential associations between physical activity (PA) measures-including total activities in the past year and days of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in the past week-and obesity. CONCLUSIONS: School lunch and home food environmental variables accounted for racial disparities, but not gender disparities, in obesity prevalence. Gender differences in mechanisms between PA and obesity should be explored further.

Economic evaluation of registered nurse tenure on nursing home resident outcomes.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the economic implications of nursing home (NH) registered nurse (RN) tenure on resident outcomes. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of two nurse workforce scenarios focusing on RN tenure (high versus low), and the associated transfers from NH to the hospital. METHODS: A decision tree was constructed to compare the incremental costs and effects of RN tenure scenarios on NH resident transfers to the hospital under two NH staffing scenarios: high versus low levels of RN tenure. Three outcomes were modeled: 1) dollars per hospitalization avoided, 2) dollars per hospitalization and death avoided, and 3) dollars per death avoided. RESULTS: The total costs of care for the low tenure scenario were $34,108 per month compared to the high tenure scenario at $29,442 per month. Effectiveness of the high tenure was greater across all 3 outcomes (incremental effectiveness ranged from 0.925 to 0.974 depending on outcome), indicating that high tenure was the dominant strategy (that is less costly and more effective). CONCLUSIONS: Higher RN tenure was a dominant strategy across the 3 outcomes. This was a fairly robust finding despite the variations in the model and uncertainty in the input parameters. Aligning quality outcomes with cost effectiveness is imperative to driving the direction of health policy in the United States. Better prevention of hospitalizations by having an experienced RN workforce will not only improve resident quality of care but will allow NHs to realize the value of retaining a skilled workforce.

Cost-Effectiveness of Bariatric Surgery Prior to Total Knee Arthroplasty in the Morbidly Obese: A Computer Model-Based Evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with adverse outcomes and increased costs after total knee arthroplasty. Bariatric surgery is an effective treatment for morbid obesity, but its cost-effectiveness for weight loss prior to total knee arthroplasty is unknown. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bariatric surgery prior to total knee arthroplasty for patients in whom medical treatment of obesity and knee osteoarthritis had failed. METHODS: A state-transition Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-utility of two treatment protocols for patients with morbid obesity and end-stage knee osteoarthritis: (1) immediate total knee arthroplasty and (2) bariatric surgery two years prior to the total knee arthroplasty. The probability of transition for each health state and its utility were derived from the literature. Costs, expressed in 2012 United States dollars, were estimated with use of administrative and claims data. Costs and utilities were discounted at 3% annually, and effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The principal outcome measure was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). One-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed, using $100,000 per QALY as the threshold willingness to pay. RESULTS: Morbidly obese patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty alone had lower QALYs gained than patients who underwent bariatric surgery two years prior to the total knee arthroplasty. The ICER between these two procedures was approximately $13,910 per QALY, well below the threshold willingness to pay. Results were stable across broad value ranges for independent variables. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that the median ICER was $14,023 per QALY (95% confidence interval, $4875 to $51,210 per QALY). CONCLUSIONS: This model supports bariatric surgery prior to total knee arthroplasty as a cost-effective option for improving outcomes in morbidly obese patients with end-stage knee osteoarthritis who are indicated for total knee arthroplasty. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Economic and Decision Analysis Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Severe Obesity In Adults Cost State Medicaid Programs Nearly $8 Billion In 2013.

Efforts to expand Medicaid while controlling spending must be informed by a deeper understanding of the extent to which the high medical costs associated with severe obesity (having a body mass index of [Formula: see text] or higher) determine spending at the state level. Our analysis of population-representative data indicates that in 2013, severe obesity cost the nation approximately $69 billion, which accounted for 60 percent of total obesity-related costs. Approximately 11 percent of the cost of severe obesity was paid for by Medicaid, 30 percent by Medicare and other federal health programs, 27 percent by private health plans, and 30 percent out of pocket. Overall, severe obesity cost state Medicaid programs almost $8 billion a year, ranging from $5 million in Wyoming to $1.3 billion in California. These costs are likely to increase following Medicaid expansion and enhanced coverage of weight loss therapies in the form of nutrition consultation, drug therapy, and bariatric surgery. Ensuring and expanding Medicaid-eligible populations' access to cost-effective treatment for severe obesity should be part of each state's strategy to mitigate rising obesity-related health care costs.

Three Interventions That Reduce Childhood Obesity Are Projected To Save More Than They Cost To Implement.

Policy makers seeking to reduce childhood obesity must prioritize investment in treatment and primary prevention. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of seven interventions high on the obesity policy agenda: a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax; elimination of the tax subsidy for advertising unhealthy food to children; restaurant menu calorie labeling; nutrition standards for school meals; nutrition standards for all other food and beverages sold in schools; improved early care and education; and increased access to adolescent bariatric surgery. We used systematic reviews and a microsimulation model of national implementation of the interventions over the period 2015-25 to estimate their impact on obesity prevalence and their cost-effectiveness for reducing the body mass index of individuals. In our model, three of the seven interventions--excise tax, elimination of the tax deduction, and nutrition standards for food and beverages sold in schools outside of meals--saved more in health care costs than they cost to implement. Each of the three interventions prevented 129,000-576,000 cases of childhood obesity in 2025. Adolescent bariatric surgery had a negligible impact on obesity prevalence. Our results highlight the importance of primary prevention for policy makers aiming to reduce childhood obesity.

Economic and Survival Implications of Use of Electric Power Morcellation for Hysterectomy for Presumed Benign Gynecologic Disease.

BACKGROUND: Electric power morcellation during laparoscopic hysterectomy allows some women to undergo minimally invasive surgery but may disrupt underlying occult malignancies and increase the risk of tumor dissemination. METHODS: We developed a state transition Markov cohort simulation model of the risks and benefits of hysterectomy (abdominal, laparoscopic, and laparoscopic with electric power morcellation) for women with presumed benign gynecologic disease. The model considered perioperative morbidity, mortality, risk of cancer and dissemination, and outcomes in women with an underlying malignancy. We explored the effectiveness from a societal perspective stratified by age (<40, 40-49, 50-59, and ≥60 years). RESULTS: Under all scenarios, modeled laparoscopic hysterectomy without morcellation was the most beneficial strategy. Laparoscopic hysterectomy with morcellation was associated with 80.83 more intraoperative complications, 199.64 fewer perioperative complications, and 241.80 fewer readmissions than abdominal hysterectomy per 10 000 women. Per 10 000 women younger than age 40 years, laparoscopic hysterectomy with morcellation was associated with 1.57 more cases of disseminated cancer and 0.97 fewer deaths than abdominal hysterectomy. The excess cases of disseminated cancer per 10 000 women with morcellation compared with abdominal hysterectomy increased with age to 47.54 per 10 000 in women age 60 years and older. Compared with abdominal hysterectomy, this resulted in 0.30 (age 40-49 years), 5.07 (age 50-59 years), and 18.14 (age 60 years and older) excess deaths per 10 000 women in the respective age groups. CONCLUSION: Laparoscopic hysterectomy without morcellation is the most beneficial approach of the three methods of hysterectomy studied. In older women, the risks of electric power morcellation may outweigh the benefits of minimally invasive hysterectomy.

Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Obesity Interventions: Evidence and Methods for CHOICES.

INTRODUCTION: The childhood obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and fiscal crises are leading policymakers to ask not only whether an intervention works but also whether it offers value for money. However, cost-effectiveness analyses have been limited. This paper discusses methods and outcomes of four childhood obesity interventions: (1) sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax (SSB); (2) eliminating tax subsidy of TV advertising to children (TV AD); (3) early care and education policy change (ECE); and (4) active physical education (Active PE). METHODS: Cost-effectiveness models of nationwide implementation of interventions were estimated for a simulated cohort representative of the 2015 U.S. population over 10 years (2015-2025). A societal perspective was used; future outcomes were discounted at 3%. Data were analyzed in 2014. Effectiveness, implementation, and equity issues were reviewed. RESULTS: Population reach varied widely, and cost per BMI change ranged from $1.16 (TV AD) to $401 (Active PE). At 10 years, assuming maintenance of the intervention effect, three interventions would save net costs, with SSB and TV AD saving $55 and $38 for every dollar spent. The SSB intervention would avert disability-adjusted life years, and both SSB and TV AD would increase quality-adjusted life years. Both SSB ($12.5 billion) and TV AD ($80 million) would produce yearly tax revenue. CONCLUSIONS: The cost effectiveness of these preventive interventions is greater than that seen for published clinical interventions to treat obesity. Cost-effectiveness evaluations of childhood obesity interventions can provide decision makers with information demonstrating best value for the money.

BMI and Healthcare Cost Impact of Eliminating Tax Subsidy for Advertising Unhealthy Food to Youth.

INTRODUCTION: Food and beverage TV advertising contributes to childhood obesity. The current tax treatment of advertising as an ordinary business expense in the U.S. subsidizes marketing of nutritionally poor foods and beverages to children. This study models the effect of a national intervention that eliminates the tax subsidy of advertising nutritionally poor foods and beverages on TV to children aged 2-19 years. METHODS: We adapted and modified the Assessing Cost Effectiveness framework and methods to create the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study model to simulate the impact of the intervention over the 2015-2025 period for the U.S. population, including short-term effects on BMI and 10-year healthcare expenditures. We simulated uncertainty intervals (UIs) using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and discounted outcomes at 3% annually. Data were analyzed in 2014. RESULTS: We estimated the intervention would reduce an aggregate 2.13 million (95% UI=0.83 million, 3.52 million) BMI units in the population and would cost $1.16 per BMI unit reduced (95% UI=$0.51, $2.63). From 2015 to 2025, the intervention would result in $352 million (95% UI=$138 million, $581 million) in healthcare cost savings and gain 4,538 (95% UI=1,752, 7,489) quality-adjusted life-years. CONCLUSIONS: Eliminating the tax subsidy of TV advertising costs for nutritionally poor foods and beverages advertised to children and adolescents would likely be a cost-saving strategy to reduce childhood obesity and related healthcare expenditures.