Trends and patterns in stroke incidence, mortality, DALYs and case-fatality by sociodemographic index worldwide: an age-period-cohort analysis using the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study.

OBJECTIVES: Stroke is a significant public health burden worldwide. This study aimed to explore the trends and patterns of stroke incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and case-fatality percent (CFP) worldwide from 1990 to 2019. STUDY DESIGN: Age-period-cohort analysis. METHODS: Trends in stroke burden worldwide were evaluated using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. In addition, the relationship between the burden of stroke and sociodemographic index (SDI) was examined by quantile regression. Age, period and cohort patterns in stroke burden across different SDI groups were estimated using age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised rates (ASRs) of stroke incidence, mortality and DALYs declined significantly worldwide, with decreases of -16.89% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: -18.41 to -15.29), -36.43% (95% UI: -41.65 to -31.20) and -35.23% (95% UI: -40.49 to -30.49), respectively. Regions with ASRs in the 75th percentile and below experienced significant decreases in ASRs with increasing SDI. After 2014, there was a stable or slightly increased period effect for stroke incidence in all groups, while mortality, DALYs and CFP increased only in the high SDI group. The cohort effect of stroke incidence remained constant in the high SDI group from the 1960-1964 cohort onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Although high SDI regions had a lower stroke burden and a faster overall decline in burden, the recent relative risk data suggest a potential deceleration in the progress of reducing stroke burden in these areas. There is a need for more active measures to reduce the stroke burden in areas with the highest incidence, mortality and DALYs, as increasing SDI alone cannot lower the burden in these regions.

Systematic Analysis of the Global, Regional and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases from 1990 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies on the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) were mainly based on limited data of the study period or area, or did not include detailed risk factor analysis. OBJECTIVE: To investigate up-to-date temporal and regional trends and risk factors of mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVDs by age, sex, and disease throughout the world. METHODS: Data for the disease burden of CVDs in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, including mortality, DALYs, age-standardized mortality rates, and age-standardized DALY rates, were estimated from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Risk factors attributable to deaths and DALYs for CVDs were also estimated using the comparative risk assessment framework. RESULTS: The number of deaths from CVDs increased by 48.62%, from 11.94 (95% UI 11.78-12.18) million in 1990 to 17.79 (17.53-18.04) million in 2017. However, the age-standardized mortality rate decreased by an average of - 1.45% (- 1.72% to - 1.18%) annually. After fluctuation in the expected age-standardized mortality rate of CVDs in most of the socio-demographic index (SDI) scale, these rates decrease rapidly for SDI values of 0.7 and higher. In 2017, metabolic risks accounted for 73.48% of deaths and 73.25% of DALYs due to CVDs, behavioral factors accounted for 63.23% of deaths and 66.71% of attributable DALYs. CONCLUSION: CVDs remain a major global health burden due to the increment in death numbers and DALYs. Aging and the main risk factors are the main drivers of mortality and health loss. More attention to main risk factors should be paid with supportive health policies.

Assessment of the presence and anti-tumor potential of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in patients with acute myeloid leukemia.

Purpose: Assessing the possibility of finding tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) in bone marrow of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients and evaluating the anti-tumor activity of these TIL against autologous AML cells. Patients and methods: TIL were immunomagnetically isolated by using anti-CD3 from bone marrow samples of 20 patients at the presentation of AML or four weeks upon completion of chemotherapy. TIL were ex vivo expanded for two weeks and immunophenotyped. Functionality in terms of cytokine secretion and cytotoxicity was assessed by γ-interferon quantitation and Elispot assay, respectively. Results: TIL were detected in bone marrow samples of 50% (10/20) of the patient cohort. They were noted to highly express CD137 and PD-1 and display a significantly higher anti-tumor reactivity compared to that of autologous peripheral blood lymphocytes. TIL could be expanded in co-cultures with irradiated feeder cells supplemented with interleukin (IL)-7 and IL-15. Conclusion: Data suggested the presence of reactive γ-interferon-secreting TIL in AML patients. They are expandable and possess anti-tumor activity, which might have a great potential in the development of adoptive cellular therapy for AML.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Trends in Mortality from Drowning in China: Data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

The studies on drowning mortality are very scarce in China, and the aim of this study is to identify the long-term patterns of drowning mortality in China between 1990 and 2015 to provide evidence for further prevention and control on drowning. The mortality data were derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 and were analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. This study demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality rates for drowning in both sexes displayed general declining trends with a decrease in the drowning mortality rate for every age group. In the same birth cohort, both sexes witnessed a substantial decline followed by a slight increase in the risk of death from drowning with age after controlling for period deviations. The estimated period and cohort relative risks were found in similar monotonic downward patterns for both sexes, with more reduction for females than for males during the whole study period.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Stroke Mortality in China: Data From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke has been the leading cause of death in China. The aim of this study is to assess the long-term trends of stroke mortality in China between 1994 and 2013. METHODS: The mortality data were obtained from the GBD 2013 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2013) and were analyzed with the age-period-cohort framework. RESULTS: We found that the net drift was -2.665% (95% confidence interval, -2.854% to -2.474%) per year for men and -4.064% (95% confidence interval, -4.279% to -3.849%) per year for women, and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (P<0.05 for all) in both sexes during the period of 1994 to 2013. In the same birth cohort, the risk of death from stroke rose exponentially with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations. The estimated period and cohort relative risks were found in similar monotonic downward patterns (significantly with P<0.05 for all) for both sexes, with more quickly decreasing for women than for men during the whole period (significantly with P<0.05 for both). CONCLUSIONS: The decreased mortality rates of stroke in China are likely to be related to improvements in medical care and techniques, spectacular economic growth and fast urbanization, and better early life nutrition conditions of Chinese people. Besides, better education and better awareness of stroke-related knowledge in successive generations could also probably play a role.

Temporal Trends of Suicide Mortality in Mainland China: Results from the Age-Period-Cohort Framework.

The aim of this study is to explore the long-term trends of suicide mortality in China. We implemented the age-period-cohort (APC) framework, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Our results showed that the net drift of suicide mortality was -4.727% (95% CI: -4.821% to -4.634%) per year for men and -6.633% (95% CI: -6.751% to -6.515%) per year for women, and the local drift values were below 0 in all age groups (p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes during the period of 1994-2013. Longitudinal age curves indicated that, in the same birth cohort, suicide death risk increased rapidly to peak at the life stage of 20-24 years old and 15-24 years old for men and women, respectively, and then showed a decelerated decline, followed by a rise thereafter after 54 years old for men and a slight one after 69 years old for women. The estimated period and cohort RRs were found to show similar monotonic downward patterns (significantly with p < 0.01 for all) for both sexes, with more quickly decreasing for women than for men during the whole period. The decreasing trend of suicide was likely to be related to the economic rapid growth, improvements in health care, enhancement on the level of education, and increasing awareness of suicide among the public in China. In addition, fast urbanization and the effective control of pesticides and rodenticides might be the special reasons behind these trends we observed in this study.

The influence of temperature on mortality and its Lag effect: a study in four Chinese cities with different latitudes.

BACKGROUND: Global climate change is one of the most serious environmental issues faced by humanity, and the resultant change in frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells could increase mortality. The influence of temperature on human health could be immediate or delayed. Latitude, relative humidity, and air pollution may influence the temperature-mortality relationship. We studied the influence of temperature on mortality and its lag effect in four Chinese cities with a range of latitudes over 2008-2011, adjusting for relative humidity and air pollution. METHODS: We recorded the city-specific distributions of temperature and mortality by month and adopted a Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model to investigate the lag effect of temperature on mortality. RESULTS: We found that the coldest months in the study area are December through March and the hottest months are June through September. The ratios of deaths during cold months to hot months were 1.43, 1.54, 1.37 and 1.12 for the cities of Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The effects of extremely high temperatures generally persisted for 3 days, whereas the risk of extremely low temperatures could persist for 21 days. Compared with the optimum temperature of each city, at a lag of 21 days, the relative risks (95 % confidence interval) of extreme cold temperatures were 4.78 (3.63, 6.29), 2.38 (1.35, 4.19), 2.62 (1.15, 5.95) and 2.62 (1.44, 4.79) for Wuhan, Changsha, Guilin and Haikou, respectively. The respective risks were 1.35 (1.18, 1.55), 1.19 (0.96, 1.48), 1.22 (0.82, 1.82) and 2.47 (1.61, 3.78) for extreme hot temperatures, at a lag of 3 days. CONCLUSIONS: Temperature-mortality relationships vary among cities at different latitudes. Local governments should establish regional prevention and protection measures to more effectively confront and adapt to local climate change. The effects of hot temperatures predominantly occur over the short term, whereas those of cold temperatures can persist for an extended number of days.

Evaluation of health care system reform in Hubei Province, China.

This study established a set of indicators for and evaluated the effects of health care system reform in Hubei Province (China) from 2009 to 2011 with the purpose of providing guidance to policy-makers regarding health care system reform. The resulting indicators are based on the "Result Chain" logic model and include the following four domains: Inputs and Processes, Outputs, Outcomes and Impact. Health care system reform was evaluated using the weighted TOPSIS and weighted Rank Sum Ratio methods. Ultimately, the study established a set of indicators including four grade-1 indicators, 16 grade-2 indicators and 76 grade-3 indicators. The effects of the reforms increased year by year from 2009 to 2011 in Hubei Province. The health status of urban and rural populations and the accessibility, equity and quality of health services in Hubei Province were improved after the reforms. This sub-national case can be considered an example of a useful approach to the evaluation of the effects of health care system reform, one that could potentially be applied in other provinces or nationally.