Multimodal Action Quality Assessment.

Action quality assessment (AQA) is to assess how well an action is performed. Previous works perform modelling by only the use of visual information, ignoring audio information. We argue that although AQA is highly dependent on visual information, the audio is useful complementary information for improving the score regression accuracy, especially for sports with background music, such as figure skating and rhythmic gymnastics. To leverage multimodal information for AQA, i.e., RGB, optical flow and audio information, we propose a Progressive Adaptive Multimodal Fusion Network (PAMFN) that separately models modality-specific information and mixed-modality information. Our model consists of with three modality-specific branches that independently explore modality-specific information and a mixed-modality branch that progressively aggregates the modality-specific information from the modality-specific branches. To build the bridge between modality-specific branches and the mixed-modality branch, three novel modules are proposed. First, a Modality-specific Feature Decoder module is designed to selectively transfer modality-specific information to the mixed-modality branch. Second, when exploring the interaction between modality-specific information, we argue that using an invariant multimodal fusion policy may lead to suboptimal results, so as to take the potential diversity in different parts of an action into consideration. Therefore, an Adaptive Fusion Module is proposed to learn adaptive multimodal fusion policies in different parts of an action. This module consists of several FusionNets for exploring different multimodal fusion strategies and a PolicyNet for deciding which FusionNets are enabled. Third, a module called Cross-modal Feature Decoder is designed to transfer cross-modal features generated by Adaptive Fusion Module to the mixed-modality branch. Our extensive experiments validate the efficacy of the proposed method, and our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on two public datasets. Code is available at https://github.com/qinghuannn/PAMFN.

Comprehensive Clinical-Pathologic Assessment of Malignant Phyllodes Tumors: Proposing Refined Diagnostic Criteria.

The latest World Health Organization classification of breast tumors recommends diagnosing malignant phyllodes tumors (MPTs) when all 5 morphologic features are present: permeative borders, marked stromal cellularity, marked stromal cytologic atypia, ≥10 mitoses per 10 high-power fields (HPF), and stromal overgrowth. We assessed the performance of this recommendation to capture MPTs and features predictive of distant metastasis in a multi-institutional retrospective study. Of 65 MPTs, most cases had at least focally permeative borders (58, 89%), with marked stromal cellularity in 40 (61.5%), marked atypia in 38 (58.5%), ≥10 mitoses per 10 HPF in 50 (77%), and stromal overgrowth in 56 (86%). Distant metastases were observed in 20 (31%) patients (median follow-up 24.5 mo, 1 to 204). Only 13 of 65 (20%) cases had all 5 morphologic features, while only 7 of 20 (35%) cases with distant metastases had all 5 features. In univariate analysis, only marked stromal atypia ( P =0.004) and cellularity ( P =0.017) were associated with decreased distant metastasis-free survival. In multivariate Cox regression, the combination of stromal overgrowth, marked stromal cellularity, and atypia (C-index 0.721, 95% CI: 0.578, 0.863) was associated with decreased distant metastasis-free survival. The current World Health Organization recommendation will miss a significant number of MPTs with distant metastases. We propose refined diagnostic criteria for MPTs: (1) stromal overgrowth combined with ≥1 feature(s) (marked cellularity, marked atypia, or ≥10 mitoses per 10 HPF), or (2) in the absence of stromal overgrowth, marked cellularity combined with ≥1 feature(s) (permeative borders, marked atypia, or ≥10 mitoses per 10 HPF).

Multi-institutional Assessment of Pathologist Scoring HER2 Immunohistochemistry.

The HercepTest was approved 20+ years ago as the companion diagnostic test for trastuzumab in human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2) or ERBB2 gene-amplified/overexpressing breast cancers. Subsequent HER2 immunohistochemistry (IHC) assays followed, including the now most common Ventana 4B5 assay. Although this IHC assay has become the clinical standard, its reliability, reproducibility, and accuracy have largely been approved and accepted on the basis of concordance among small numbers of pathologists without validation in a real-world setting. In this study, we evaluated the concordance and interrater reliability of scoring HER2 IHC in 170 breast cancer biopsies by 18 breast cancer-specialized pathologists from 15 institutions. We used the Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests method to determine the plateau of concordance and the minimum number of pathologists needed to estimate interrater agreement values for large numbers of raters, as seen in the real-world setting. We report substantial discordance within the intermediate categories (<1% agreement for 1+ and 3.6% agreement for 2+) in the 4-category HER2 IHC scoring system. The discordance within the IHC 0 cases is also substantial with an overall percent agreement (OPA) of only 25% and poor interrater reliability metrics (0.49 Fleiss' kappa, 0.55 intraclass correlation coefficient). This discordance can be partially reduced by using a 3-category system (28.8% vs 46.5% OPA for 4-category and 3-category scoring systems, respectively). Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests plots suggest that the OPA for the task of determining a HER2 IHC score 0 from not 0 plateaus statistically around 59.4% at 10 raters. Conversely, at the task of scoring HER2 IHC as 3+ or not 3+ pathologists' concordance was much higher with an OPA that plateaus at 87.1% with 6 raters. This suggests that legacy HER2 IHC remains valuable for finding the patients in whom the ERBB2 gene is amplified but unacceptably discordant in assigning HER2-low or HER2-negative status for the emerging HER2-low therapies.

When are breakthrough therapies cost-effective?

BACKGROUND: An increasing proportion of novel drug approvals use accelerated pathways, with notable growth in the US Food and Drug Administration-designated breakthrough pathway in recent years. Breakthrough therapy (BT) designation suggests that these therapies offer substantial potential to improve health outcomes but their value for money is not fully understood, as BTs typically cost more than non-BTs (NBTs). OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic value of BTs and factors associated with their reported value. METHODS: Using the Tufts Medical Center Cost-Effectiveness (CE) Analysis Registry, we (1) summarized the CE of BTs, as measured by cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY); (2) compared the CE of BTs and NBTs in the United States; and (3) identified factors associated with BT CE using general estimating equation models across US willingness-to-pay (WTP) benchmarks ($50K-$150K/QALY). RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration approved 279 drugs, designating 83 (32%) as BTs. Incremental costs and health gains (QALYs) were higher for BTs relative to NBTs ($29,000 vs $20,000 and 0.7 vs 0.2 QALYs, respectively), and BTs had more favorable CE ratios compared with NBTs (median values $38,000/QALY vs $50,000/QALY, respectively). For BTs, hepatitis C treatments had the most favorable CE ratios, which may be driven by the curative nature of some hepatitis C therapies. Furthermore, BT CE ratios for new molecular entities (NMEs) were about 40% lower than ratios for non-NME BTs on average, which may signal more value for money when the BT has a new active molecule. Regression analysis to identify trends driving CE found that BT drugs compared with active comparators (instead of best supportive care) were less likely to be cost-effective at standard US WTP thresholds (odds ratio [OR] = 0.1-0.6) and that BTs in the neoplasm space also trended less likely to be cost-effective (OR = 0.12-0.43). CE ratios reported by studies with industry funding were also more likely to be cost-effective than ratios from studies with other funding sources (OR = 4.3-4.5), though this finding was not significant at WTP thresholds over $50,000/QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence from published, peer-reviewed CE studies suggests that BTs may confer greater health benefits than NBTs in terms of overall QALYs. Our analysis supports that the US Food and Drug Administration BT designation may be associated with increased value for money for these BTs. However, factors such as the disease area, NME status, and comparator (active vs standard of care) will also influence whether these therapies are cost-effective. DISCLOSURES: Dr Cohen reports grants or contracts from PhRMA Foundation, National Pharmaceutical Council, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly and Company, Gilead Sciences, Regeneron, Pfizer, Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Vir Biotechnology, Moderna, Amgen, and Lundbeck; consulting fees from AbbVie, Biogen, IQVIA, Novartis, Partnership for Health Analytic Research, Pharmerit, Precision Health Economics, Sage, Sanofi, and Sarepta; and stock or stock options from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, and Merck. Ms Kowal is an employee and stockholder of Genentech, Inc. Dr Yeh is an employee and stockholder of Roche, Inc.

Adaptive Action Assessment.

Action assessment, the process of evaluating how well an action is performed, is an important task in human action analysis. Action assessment has experienced considerable development based on visual cues; however, existing methods neglect to adaptively learn different architectures for varied types of actions and are therefore limited in achieving high-performance assessment for each type of action. In fact, every type of action has specific evaluation criteria, and human experts are trained for years to correctly evaluate a single type of action. Therefore, it is difficult for a single assessment architecture to achieve high performance for all types of actions. However, manually designing an assessment architecture for each specific type of action is very difficult and impracticable. This work addresses this problem by adaptively designing different assessment architectures for different types of actions, and the proposed approach is therefore called the adaptive action assessment. In order to facilitate our adaptive action assessment by exploiting the specific joint interactions for each type of action, a set of graph-based joint relations is learned for each type of action by means of trainable joint relation graphs built according to the human skeleton structure, and the learned joint relation graphs can visually interpret the assessment process. In addition, we introduce using a normalized mean squared error loss (N-MSE loss) and a Pearson loss that perform automatic score normalization to operate adaptive assessment training. The experiments on four benchmarks for action assessment demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. We also demonstrate the visual interpretability of our model by visualizing the details of the assessment process.

Assessment of Residual Cancer Burden and Event-Free Survival in Neoadjuvant Treatment for High-risk Breast Cancer: An Analysis of Data From the I-SPY2 Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Residual cancer burden (RCB) distributions may improve the interpretation of efficacy in neoadjuvant breast cancer trials. OBJECTIVE: To compare RCB distributions between randomized control and investigational treatments within subtypes of breast cancer and explore the relationship with survival. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The I-SPY2 is a multicenter, platform adaptive, randomized clinical trial in the US that compares, by subtype, investigational agents in combination with chemotherapy vs chemotherapy alone in adult women with stage 2/3 breast cancer at high risk of early recurrence. Investigational treatments graduated in a prespecified subtype if there was 85% or greater predicted probability of higher rate of pathologic complete response (pCR) in a confirmatory, 300-patient, 1:1 randomized, neoadjuvant trial in that subtype. Evaluation of a secondary end point was reported from the 10 investigational agents tested in the I-SPY2 trial from March 200 through 2016, and analyzed as of September 9, 2020. The analysis plan included modeling of RCB within subtypes defined by hormone receptor (HR) and ERBB2 status and compared control treatments with investigational treatments that graduated and those that did not graduate. INTERVENTIONS: Neoadjuvant paclitaxel plus/minus 1 of several investigational agents for 12 weeks, then 12 weeks of cyclophosphamide/doxorubicin chemotherapy followed by surgery. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Residual cancer burden (pathological measure of residual disease) and event-free survival (EFS). RESULTS: A total of 938 women (mean [SD] age, 49 [11] years; 66 [7%] Asian, 103 [11%] Black, and 750 [80%] White individuals) from the first 10 investigational agents were included, with a median follow-up of 52 months (IQR, 29 months). Event-free survival worsened significantly per unit of RCB in every subtype of breast cancer (HR-positive/ERBB2-negative: hazard ratio [HZR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.45-2.16; HR-positive/ERBB2-positive: HZR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.18-2.05; HR-negative/ERBB2-positive: HZR, 2.39; 95% CI, 1.64-3.49; HR-negative/ERBB2-negative: HZR, 1.99; 95% CI, 1.71-2.31). Prognostic information from RCB was similar from treatments that graduated (HZR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.57-2.55; 254 [27%]), did not graduate (HZR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.61-2.17; 486 [52%]), or were control (HZR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.42-2.26; 198 [21%]). Investigational treatments significantly lowered RCB in HR-negative/ERBB2-negative (graduated and nongraduated treatments) and ERBB2-positive subtypes (graduated treatments), with improved EFS (HZR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.41-0.93) in the exploratory analysis. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this randomized clinical trial, the prognostic significance of RCB was consistent regardless of subtype and treatment. Effective neoadjuvant treatments shifted the distribution of RCB in addition to increasing pCR rate and appeared to improve EFS. Using a standardized quantitative method to measure response advances the interpretation of efficacy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01042379.

Prospective multi-institutional evaluation of pathologist assessment of PD-L1 assays for patient selection in triple negative breast cancer.

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the PD-L1 immunohistochemical assay, SP142, as a companion test to determine eligibility for atezolizumab therapy in patients with advanced triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) but data in lung cancer studies suggest the assay suffers from poor reproducibility. We sought to evaluate reproducibility and concordance in PD-L1 scoring across multiple pathologists. Full TNBC sections were stained with SP142 and SP263 assays and interpreted for percentage (%) immune cell (IC) staining by 19 pathologists from 14 academic institutions. Proportion of PD-L1 positive cases (defined as ≥1% IC) was determined for each assay as well as concordance across observers. We utilized a new method we call Observers Needed to Evaluate Subjective Tests (ONEST) to determine the minimum number of evaluators needed to estimate concordance between large numbers of readers, as occurs in the real-world setting. PD-L1 was interpreted as positive with the SP142 assay in an average 58% of cases compared with 78% with SP263 (p < 0.0001). IC positive continuous scores ranged from 1 to 95% (mean = 20%) and 1 to 90% (mean = 10%) for SP263 and SP142, respectively. With SP142, 26 cases (38%) showed complete two category (<1% vs. ≥1%) concordance; with SP263, 38 cases (50%) showed complete agreement. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for two category scoring of SP263 and SP142 was 0.513 and 0.560. ONEST plots showed decreasing overall percent agreement (OPA) as observer number increased, reaching a low plateau of 0.46 at ten observers for SP263 and 0.41 at eight observers for SP142. IC scoring with both assays showed poor reproducibility across multiple pathologists with ONEST analysis suggesting more than half of pathologists will disagree about IC scores. This could lead to many patients either receiving atezolizumab when they are unlikely to benefit, or not receiving atezolizumab when they may benefit.

A CD24-p53 axis contributes to African American prostate cancer disparities.

BACKGROUND: Using a functional analysis of prostate cancer cells, we found a CD24-dependent inactivation of mutant p53, but the clinical significance of this observation remained uncertain. Here, we validated these results with samples of human prostate cancer and explored the role of a CD24-p53 axis in racial disparities of prostate cancer. METHODS: Samples of formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded prostate cancer from 141 European Americans (EAs) and 147 African Americans (AAs) in two independent sample cohorts were assessed for protein expression of CD24, mutant p53, mouse double minute 2 human homolog (MDM2), and cyclin dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (ARF) using immunohistochemical analyses. All samples were analyzed for TP53R175H and TP53R273H . RESULTS: CD24, mutant p53, MDM2, and ARF proteins were expressed in 55%, 24%, 39%, and 68% of prostate cancer samples, respectively. CD24 and mutant p53 were present more frequently in late-stage and metastatic prostate cancer. The presence of CD24 was associated with a greater than fourfold risk of metastasis, which included lymph node and distant metastases. H score analysis showed positive correlations of CD24 expression with mutant p53 (r = .308, P < .001) and MDM2 (r = .227, P = .004). There was a negative correlation for CD24 with ARF (r = -.280, P < .001). A racial disparity was evident for CD24 (AAs/EAs: 64% vs 47%; P = .004) but not for mutant p53 (AA/EA: 28% vs 21%; P = .152). In 32 CD24+ /mutant p53+ cases, a TP53R273H mutation was found in five cases, but no TP53R175H mutation was found. CONCLUSION: The CD24-p53 axis may contribute to aggressive and metastatic prostate cancers, especially those of AAs. This observation enhances understanding of the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and its associated racial disparities.

Outcomes of Stable Multiple Sclerosis Patients Staying on Initial Interferon Beta Therapy Versus Switching to Another Interferon Beta Therapy: A US Claims Database Study.

INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to assess real-world outcomes of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) who were stable on interferon (IFN) beta therapy in the year prior to switching to another IFN beta therapy versus those who continued on the initial treatment. METHODS: This study used administrative claims from MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database, from January 1, 2010, to March 31, 2015, to identify MS patients aged 18-64 years who remained relapse free for at least 1 year while continuously treated with an IFN beta therapy. Stable patients remaining on their initial IFN beta therapy (no-switch patients) were matched with stable patients who switched IFN beta therapy (switch patients) using propensity score matching (first claim = index date). Outcome measures included annualized relapse rate (ARR), the percentage of patients who relapsed, medication possession ratio, and the proportion of days covered and were measured during the year following the index date. RESULTS: This study identified 531 patients in the no-switch group and 177 patients in the switch group, with subsets of 270 patients in the no-switch group and 90 patients in the switch group stable on intramuscular (IM) IFN beta-1a therapy. All outcomes during the follow-up year were significantly better in the no-switch group than in the switch group. For all patients, ARR in the switch group was more than twice that in the no-switch group (P = 0.002). For patients stable on IM IFN beta-1a at baseline, ARR was twice as high in the switch group as in the no-switch group (P = 0.012). CONCLUSION: Among all patients stable on IFN beta therapy and the subset stable on IM IFN beta therapy in particular, those who remained on therapy had significantly better outcomes than those who switched to another IFN beta therapy. FUNDING: Biogen (Cambridge, MA, USA).

[Dynamics and driving forces of main vegetation types in the Saihanba Nature Reserve, Hebei Province, China]. / å¡žç½•åè‡ªç„¶ä¿æŠ¤åŒºä¸»è¦æ¤è¢«ç±»åž‹åŠ¨æ€åŠå ¶é©±åŠ¨åŠ›.

To explore the changes of vegetation landscape pattern and its driving mechanism in Saihanba Nature Reserve, we analyzed vegetation type changes from 1989 to 2013 and the driving factors using random forest and Logistic regression models in conjunction with land dynamic degree indicator, based on three Landsat TM imageries obtained in 1989, 2000 and 2013. The results showed that the proportion of shrubland was always small in this area from 1989 to 2013. During 1989-2013, the proportion of shrubland rapidly decreased and plantation area significantly increased, while the area of grassland and natural secondary forest slightly changed. Key driving factors for the vegetation dynamics were dependent on vegetation type and time. The change of each vegetation type from 1989 to 2000 was significantly influenced by social factors, i.e. distance to road and total investment of afforestation. Since the implementation of the Natural Forest Protection Project and establishment of Saihanba Nature Reserve, the role of natural factors including elevation and aspect gradually became more important during the 2000-2013. The vegetation landscape dynamics were primarily determined by social activities, while the distribution patterns of vegetation types were probably controlled by natural factors in the study area.

The economic burden of spinal muscular atrophy.

AIM: To evaluate the economic burden of spinal muscular atrophy (SMA). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used Department of Defense Military Healthcare System (MHS) data from 2003-2012. Healthcare costs were determined for patients with at least one inpatient or three outpatient claims with a diagnosis of SMA before 18 years of age and who had ≥ 6 months of data after first SMA diagnosis or expired within 6 months of initial diagnosis. A comparator cohort was selected using a 3:1 match based on age and gender. RESULTS: A total of 239 individuals with SMA diagnosis met the inclusion criteria along with 717 matched comparator patients. More patients with SMA had hospitalizations (69.5%) compared to the comparator cohort (17.2%, p < 0.001). Median total expenditures across all years of data for patients with SMA were $83 652 (25-75th percentile = $29 620-228 754) vs the comparator group of $4329 (25-75(th) percentile = $1229-10 062 (p < 0.001)) over an average (SD) of 6.9 ± 3.6 years. The annualized mean costs of total healthcare expenditures were significantly higher for the SMA cases than the comparison cohort, $47 862 ± 88 607 compared to $1861 ± 6374, respectively (p < 0.001). The sub-group of patients with early diagnosis (n = 45) had 4.3 ± 2.9 years of observation with a median cost of $167 921 ($53 349-678 412). Mean age (SD) at first observed SMA diagnosis was 7.5 ± 6.4 years. Mean (SD) duration of follow-up after initial SMA diagnosis was 4.8 ± 3.3 years, with a median post-diagnosis cost of $60 213 ($18 229-192 559). The major costs for all patients were outpatient visits [median = $53 152 ($23 902-136 150)], followed by inpatient costs [median = $11 258 ($0-51 987)] and total prescription costs [median = $3167 ($943-13 283)]. LIMITATIONS: The analysis is limited to the data available and may under-estimate the total cost of SMA. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with SMA have a high degree of morbidity, particularly those diagnosed during infancy. SMA patients have significant medical expenditures and high utilization of healthcare services.

Understanding the experiences and needs of individuals with Spinal Muscular Atrophy and their parents: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical features of SMA, which range along a spectrum of severity, are relatively well described. In contrast, the literature on how individuals with SMA and their families experience this condition is limited. To address this gap, we undertook a qualitative study with individuals affected by SMA Types I, II and III, parents of those affected, and clinicians. METHODS: We completed 16 focus group sessions and 37 interviews in the US with 96 participants including: 21 with individuals with SMA; 64 parents of individuals affected by SMA; and 11 clinicians who specialize in the care of SMA patients. RESULTS: The Diagnostic Journey: Families reported substantial diagnostic delays owing to: 1) lack of awareness and knowledge about SMA; 2) the difficulty of distinguishing normal from abnormal development; and 3) the challenge of differential diagnosis. Lack of sensitivity in how clinicians communicated this potentially devastating diagnosis compounded parents' negative impressions. Newborn Screening: Parents generally held positive views about adding SMA to newborn screening panels. For example, it would: 1) enable earlier access to care; 2) shorten the diagnostic journey; and 3) give families more time to prepare to care for a disabled child. Some noted negative outcomes such as prematurely affecting a parent's relationship with a child before symptoms are evident. The Psychosocial Impact of Living with SMA: Ten thematic areas characterized the impact: 1) confronting premature death; 2) making difficult treatment choices; 3) fearing the loss of functional ability; 4) coming to terms with lost expectations; 5) loss of sleep and stress; 6) stigma; 7) limitations on social activities; 8) independence; 9) uncertainty and helplessness; and 10) family finances. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggest high levels of burden experienced by individuals with SMA and their families. The difficulties of living with SMA begin with the long and often arduous process of finding a diagnosis for their child. Newborn screening for SMA is seen as an important step toward shortening this journey. The psychosocial effects of coping with SMA are substantial and wide ranging both for the individual living with this condition and family members of affected individuals.

Health care utilization and costs of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in U.S. Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older.

RATIONALE: Management of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is resource-intensive. Because an increasing prevalence of IPF was found among the elderly in the United States, it is important to understand the economic burden associated with the disease in this population. OBJECTIVES: To compare health care resource utilization and costs between patients with IPF and matched control subjects without IPF in Medicare, the largest U.S. payer covering the elderly. METHODS: Administrative claims from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries (aged 65+) from years 2000 to 2011 were analyzed. Incident patients with IPF were identified on the basis of International Classification of Diseases, ninth revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes, with at least 1 year of enrollment before (preindex) and after (postindex) the first diagnosis (index date). Up to five beneficiaries without IPF were matched to each patient with IPF, based on age, sex, race, and region. Annual health care resource utilization and medical costs (excluding outpatient drug costs) during the preindex and postindex periods were compared between patients with IPF and matched control subjects. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: A total of 7,855 patients with IPF were matched to 38,856 control subjects. Compared with matched control subjects during the preindex period, patients with IPF had an 82% higher risk of hospitalization (28.8 vs. 15.8%), and 72% higher total medical costs ($10,124 vs. $5,888). Compared with matched control subjects during the postindex period, patients with IPF had a 134% higher risk of hospitalization (48.7 vs. 20.8%), similar increased risk of emergency room visits (39.6 vs. 17.5%), and 134% higher total medical costs ($20,887 vs. $8,932). CONCLUSIONS: In the U.S. Medicare population, patients with IPF incurred substantial health care resource utilization. The annual IPF-attributable medical cost to the U.S. health care system, excluding medication costs, is estimated at close to $2 billion.

Glucocorticoid Use in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Association Between Dose and Health Care Utilization and Costs.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the determinants of health care utilization and costs with use of glucocorticoid (GC) drugs among adult systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients. METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed established SLE patients identified by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes from a large US insurance claims database in 2007-2011. Five patient groups were defined by their oral GC use during a 1-year period: non-GC users, <60 days of GC use, and ≥60 days of GC use in low dosage (≤7.5 mg/day), medium dosage (>7.5 to ≤15 mg/day), or higher dosage (>15 mg/day). Annual health care utilization and costs were compared across these groups. Incremental costs of GC groups, calculated as the difference in total health care costs compared with those of the non-GC group, were estimated from multivariable regressions adjusting for demographic/clinical characteristics and stratified by concomitant immunosuppressant use. RESULTS: A total of 50,230 SLE patients were identified (52% non-GC users, 20% <60 days of GC use, and 10% low dose, 10% medium dose, and 8% higher dose of ≥60 days of GC use). GC users had higher health care utilization and costs. Incremental costs were significant (all P < 0.01) for medium-dose ($5,319 and $6,913) and higher-dose ($12,517 and $15,019) GC groups, regardless of concomitant immunosuppressant use. The incremental costs for the low-dose GC group with concomitant immunosuppressants ($1,285; P = 0.04) were smaller than the incremental costs for the low-dose GC group without concomitant immunosuppressants ($2,514; P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: GC use, especially at higher doses, was associated with higher health care utilization and costs. Findings in users with concomitant immunosuppressants suggest that therapies with a GC-sparing effect may be associated with lower economic burden in SLE treatment.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in US Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years and older: incidence, prevalence, and survival, 2001-11.

BACKGROUND: Published data for the epidemiology of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the USA are scarce. We sought to estimate the incidence, prevalence, and mortality risk of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis among US Medicare beneficiaries. METHODS: We used administrative claims from a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries (aged 65 years and older) from the years 2000-11 as a data source. Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis was defined by International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis codes. We estimated annual incidence and cumulative prevalence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, median survival time of patients, and potential risk factors for diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and death between 2001 and 2011. We also estimated incidence and prevalence using more restrictive algorithms for diagnosis. FINDINGS: The annual incidence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the Medicare population remained stable between 2001 and 2011, with an overall estimate of 93.7 cases per 100000 person-years (95% CI 91.9-95.4) across the study period. The annual cumulative prevalence increased steadily from 202.2 cases per 100000 people in 2001 to 494.5 cases per 100000 people in 2011. Among newly diagnosed patients with Medicare (mean age 79.4 years [SD 7.2], 54% female, 91% white), the median survival time was 3.8 years (95% CI 3.5-3.8). Older age and male sex were associated with a higher incidence of disease and shorter survival time after diagnosis. Mortality risk was lower in patients diagnosed in more recent years (median survival time 3.3 years [95% CI 3.0-3.8] in 2001 vs 4.0 years [3.8-4.5] in 2007). INTERPRETATION: The incidence and prevalence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in people aged 65 years and older in the USA are substantially higher than previously reported, and prevalence is increasing annually, even in the subgroups based on more restrictive algorithms for diagnosis. Patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis aged 65 years and older were living longer in 2011 than they were 10 years before, which could partly account for the steady increase in prevalence. FUNDING: Biogen Idec.

Clinical utilization of anti-VEGF agents and disease monitoring in neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

PURPOSE: To examine bevacizumab and ranibizumab utilization and disease monitoring patterns in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (neovascular AMD) in clinical practice. DESIGN: Retrospective medical claims analysis. METHODS: Patients receiving ≥1 ranibizumab or bevacizumab injection during the 12 months after initial neovascular AMD diagnosis were included. Annual bevacizumab and/or ranibizumab injection utilization was assessed by year of first injection cohorts: 2006 and 2007 (received either agent because of billing code overlap), 2008, 2009, and January-June 2010 (received each agent). Outcome measures were time to first injection relative to neovascular AMD diagnosis and mean numbers of intravitreal injections, ophthalmologist visits, and optical coherence tomography (OCT) and fluorescein angiography (FA) examinations in 12 months. RESULTS: In the 2006 and 2007 cohorts (n = 8767), mean annual numbers of bevacizumab or ranibizumab injections were 4.7 and 5.0, respectively. Over 92% of patients in all cohorts received first treatment within 3 months of neovascular AMD diagnosis. In the 2008-2010 cohorts (n = 10 259), mean annual number of injections remained low (bevacizumab: 4.6, 5.1, and 5.5; ranibizumab: 6.1, 6.6, and 6.9), as did mean numbers of ophthalmologist visits (bevacizumab only) and OCT examinations (both agents), but there was no such trend in FA examinations. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with treatment paradigms validated by clinical trials published at the time, in clinical practice, patients with neovascular AMD received fewer bevacizumab or ranibizumab injections and less-frequent monitoring from 2006 to mid-2011. Factors contributing to this lower injection frequency and visual outcomes associated with reduced utilization need to be researched.

Analysis of Excess Direct Medical Costs of Vision Impairment in Taiwan.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the annual excess direct medical costs of vision impairment from the perspective of the Bureau of National Health Insurance in Taiwan and to examine whether the costs vary by severity and duration of vision impairment. METHODS: A retrospective matched cohort analysis was conducted by using data from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Databases between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2008. All patients newly diagnosed with vision impairment were categorized as having moderate vision loss, severe vision loss, or blindness. Each patient with vision impairment was matched to one randomly selected patient with normal vision by age (±1 year) and sex. At each level of vision impairment, generalized linear models were used to quantify the total annual excess costs and component costs incurred in the first and second years. RESULTS: Vision impairment was associated with significantly higher crude excess medical costs. At each level of vision impairment, the total crude medical costs were attributable to different resource utilization and dominated by non-eye-related medical care. After adjusting for covariates, the first-year annual excess costs increased with escalating severity of vision impairment: New Taiwan (NT) $9894 for moderate vision loss, NT $22,760 for severe vision loss, and NT $52,687 for blindness. Similarly, the second-year adjusted costs were estimated as NT $3477, NT $19,532, and NT $28,272 for moderate vision loss, severe vision loss, and blindness, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with Western countries, vision impairment is associated with significantly increased health care costs in Taiwan. The excess costs seem to increase with severity of vision impairment and decrease in the second year.

Epistatic association mapping in homozygous crop cultivars.

The genetic dissection of complex traits plays a crucial role in crop breeding. However, genetic analysis and crop breeding have heretofore been performed separately. In this study, we designed a new approach that integrates epistatic association analysis in crop cultivars with breeding by design. First, we proposed an epistatic association mapping (EAM) approach in homozygous crop cultivars. The phenotypic values of complex traits, along with molecular marker information, were used to perform EAM. In our EAM, all the main-effect quantitative trait loci (QTLs), environmental effects, QTL-by-environment interactions and QTL-by-QTL interactions were included in a full model and estimated by empirical Bayes approach. A series of Monte Carlo simulations was performed to confirm the reliability of the new method. Next, the information from all detected QTLs was used to mine novel alleles for each locus and to design elite cross combination. Finally, the new approach was adopted to dissect the genetic basis of seed length in 215 soybean cultivars obtained, by stratified random sampling, from 6 geographic ecotypes in China. As a result, 19 main-effect QTLs and 3 epistatic QTLs were identified, more than 10 novel alleles were mined and 3 elite parental combinations, such as Daqingdou and Zhengzhou790034, were predicted.

Why using current medications to select a medicare Part D plan may lead to higher out-of-pocket payments.

While medications are one of the most stable categories of health care expenses, the actual composition of drug products used may be highly variable over time. Medicare beneficiaries selecting among Part D prescription drug plans (PDPs) are often advised to base plan selection on current medication lists. However, this approach may lead to higher out-of-pocket payments relative to payments under other plans if drug switches are common. This article uses a sample of Medicare beneficiaries from the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey to estimate how changes in actual drug use during a 1-year period affect estimated annual costs, given the initial choice of the lowest-cost PDP. While 57% of the sample had no difference in expenditure for plans selected based on initial versus end-of-the-year drug lists, 43% experienced average increases of $556 in annualized expenses due to drug switches. Implementable suggestions for improving the selection of Part D plans are provided.