Tacking upwind: reducing spending among high-risk commercially insured patients.

OBJECTIVES: The study examined a commercial accountable care organization (ACO) population and then assessed the impact of an integrated care management program on medical spending and clinical event rates. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study of high-risk individuals (n = 487) in a population of 365,413 individuals aged 18 to 64 years within the Mass General Brigham health system who were part of commercial ACO contracts with 3 large insurers between 2015 and 2019. METHODS: Using medical spending claims and other enrollment data, the study assessed the demographic and clinical characteristics, medical spending, and clinical event rates of patients in the ACO and its high-risk care management program. The study then examined the impact of the program using a staggered difference-in-difference design with individual-level fixed effects and compared outcomes of those who had entered the program with those of similar patients who had not entered. RESULTS: The commercially insured ACO population was healthy on average but included several hundred high-risk patients (n = 487). After adjustment, patients within the ACO's integrated care management program for high-risk patients had lower monthly medical spending (by $1361 per person per month) as well as lower emergency department visit and hospitalization rates compared with similar patients who had yet to start the program. Accounting for early ACO departure decreased the magnitude of the program effects as expected. CONCLUSIONS: Commercial ACO populations may be healthy on average but still include some high-risk patients. Identifying which patients might benefit from more intensive care management could be critical for reaping the potential savings.

Evaluating The Accuracy Of Medicare Risk Adjustment For Alzheimer's Disease And Related Dementias.

In 2020 Medicare reintroduced Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) to risk-adjust Medicare Advantage and accountable care organization (ACO) payments. The potential for Medicare spending increases from this policy change are not well understood because the baseline accuracy of ADRD HCCs is uncertain. Using linked 2016-18 claims and electronic health record data from a large ACO, we evaluated the accuracy of claims-based ADRD HCCs against a reference standard of clinician-adjudicated disease. An estimated 7.5 percent of beneficiaries had clinician-adjudicated ADRD. Among those with ADRD HCCs, 34 percent did not have clinician-adjudicated disease. The false-negative and false-positive rates were 22.7 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Medicare spending for those with false-negative ADRD HCCs exceeded that of true positives by $14,619 per beneficiary. If, after the reintroduction of risk adjustment for ADRD, all false negatives were coded as having ADRD, expenditure benchmarks for beneficiaries with ADRD would increase by 9 percent. Monitoring ADRD coding could become challenging in the setting of concurrent incentives to decrease false-negative rates and increase false-positive rates.

Premium tax credits in the American Rescue Plan and off-marketplace enrollees.

OBJECTIVES: The 2021 American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) increased the availability and magnitude of premium tax credits (PTCs) for consumers purchasing individual marketplace plans in 2021-2022. Millions currently purchase PTC-ineligible plans off of the marketplace. We estimate the proportion of off-marketplace enrollees who would be eligible for the expanded PTCs under ARPA, calculate PTC amounts for eligible enrollees, and examine factors influencing plan choice that could inform outreach efforts. STUDY DESIGN: We analyzed data from a survey of a random sample of off-marketplace enrollees in California in 2017 (n = 829). METHODS: Using survey data including self-reported income, household size, and employment status combined with 2021 benchmark premium data from Covered California, we estimate eligibility for PTCs and potential PTC amounts under ARPA among off-marketplace enrollees. We adjust for both survey design weights and poststratification weights. RESULTS: Among off-marketplace enrollees, we estimate that approximately 12% are potentially ineligible for PTCs because they reported incomes less than 100% of the poverty level or because they had access to employer-sponsored coverage for their family through themselves or their partner. The median annual PTC in 2021 for eligible off-marketplace enrollees was $311 but varied greatly by age, family or individual plan, and household income (5%-95% range, $0-$14,836). In 2017, 69% of off-marketplace enrollees were unaware that they had to enroll in marketplace plans to receive PTCs, and 51% received enrollment assistance from insurance brokers. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the need for targeted outreach to encourage off-marketplace enrollees to switch to marketplace plans.

Growth In ACA-Compliant Marketplace Enrollment And Spending Risk Changes During The COVID-19 Pandemic.

In 2020 the COVID-19 pandemic caused millions to lose their jobs and, consequently, their employer-sponsored health insurance. Enacted in 2010, the Affordable Care Act (ACA) created safeguards for such events by expanding Medicaid coverage and establishing Marketplaces through which people could purchase health insurance. Using a novel national data set with information on ACA-compliant individual insurance plans, we found large increases in Marketplace enrollment in 2020 compared with 2019 but with varying percentage increases and spending risk implications across states. States that did not expand Medicaid had enrollment and spending risk increases. States that expanded Medicaid but did not relax 2020 Marketplace enrollment criteria also had spending risk increases. In contrast, states that expanded Medicaid and relaxed 2020 enrollment criteria experienced enrollment increases without spending risk changes. The findings are reassuring with respect to the ability of Marketplaces to buffer employment shocks, but they also provide cautionary signals that risks and premiums could begin to rise either in the absence of Medicaid expansion or when Marketplace enrollment is constrained.

Identifying Medicare beneficiaries with dementia.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: No data exist regarding the validity of International Classification of Disease (ICD)-10 dementia diagnoses against a clinician-adjudicated reference standard within Medicare claims data. We examined the accuracy of claims-based diagnoses with respect to expert clinician adjudication using a novel database with individual-level linkages between electronic health record (EHR) and claims. DESIGN: In this retrospective observational study, two neurologists and two psychiatrists performed a standardized review of patients' medical records from January 2016 to December 2018 and adjudicated dementia status. We measured the accuracy of three claims-based definitions of dementia against the reference standard. SETTING: Mass-General-Brigham Healthcare (MGB), Massachusetts, USA. PARTICIPANTS: From an eligible population of 40,690 fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare beneficiaries, aged 65 years and older, within the MGB Accountable Care Organization (ACO), we generated a random sample of 1002 patients, stratified by the pretest likelihood of dementia using administrative surrogates. INTERVENTION: None. MEASUREMENTS: We evaluated the accuracy (area under receiver operating curve [AUROC]) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large [CITL] and calibration slope) of three ICD-10 claims-based definitions of dementia against clinician-adjudicated standards. We applied inverse probability weighting to reconstruct the eligible population and reported the mean and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for all performance characteristics, using 10-fold cross-validation (CV). RESULTS: Beneficiaries had an average age of 75.3 years and were predominately female (59%) and non-Hispanic whites (93%). The adjudicated prevalence of dementia in the eligible population was 7%. The best-performing definition demonstrated excellent accuracy (CV-AUC 0.94; 95% CI 0.92-0.96) and was well-calibrated to the reference standard of clinician-adjudicated dementia (CV-CITL <0.001, CV-slope 0.97). CONCLUSION: This study is the first to validate ICD-10 diagnostic codes against a robust and replicable approach to dementia ascertainment, using a real-world clinical reference standard. The best performing definition includes diagnostic codes with strong face validity and outperforms an updated version of a previously validated ICD-9 definition of dementia.

Renal artery stenosis: functional assessment with dynamic MR perfusion measurements--feasibility study.

PURPOSE: To prospectively assess feasibility of renal magnetic resonance (MR) perfusion measurement method based on turbo fast low-angle shot sequences for grading effect of renal artery stenosis (RAS) on parenchymal perfusion. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Institutional review board approved this study, and patients gave written consent. Seventy-three patients (34 male, 39 female; age range, 17-84 years) who were clinically suspected of having RAS underwent contrast material-enhanced (gadodiamide) saturation-recovery turbo fast low-angle shot imaging for measurement of renal perfusion and high-spatial-resolution MR angiography for RAS detection and grading. Degree of stenosis was evaluated as high grade (>/=75% stenosis), low to intermediate grade (>0% to <75% stenosis), or absent. High temporal resolution of the turbo fast low-angle shot sequence allowed acquisition of an exact first-pass tracing of the contrast agent bolus from which a signal intensity (SI)-time curve was derived. On the basis of this curve, mean transit time (MTT) of the contrast agent bolus, maximal upslope (MUS) of the curve, maximum SI, and time to SI peak (TTP) were calculated with a gamma variate fit. Wilcoxon rank sum test, Pearson product moment correlation, and paired t test were used for statistical analysis. RESULTS: Twenty-four renal arteries had high-grade RAS, 12 renal arteries had low- to intermediate-grade RAS, and 104 renal arteries had no RAS. Significant differences between patients without stenoses or with low- to intermediate-grade stenoses and patients with high-grade stenoses were found for MTT, MUS, and TTP (P < .001). Perfusion parameters were correlated with patients' serum creatinine levels, and significant correlations were found for MTT (r = 0.41), MUS (r = 0.48), and TTP (r = 0.4), with P < .001. CONCLUSION: MR perfusion parameters can be used to assess effect of RAS on parenchymal perfusion. Perfusion measurements reflect renal function as measured with serum creatinine levels.