The outcome of a cohort of tuberculin-positive predominantly South Asian new entrants aged 16-34 to the UK: Blackburn 1989-2001.

SETTING: Blackburn, Hyndburn and Ribble Valley Local Government areas of England and Wales, the former a high tuberculosis (TB) prevalence district. BACKGROUND: The incidence of tuberculosis in new entrants aged 16-34 with positive tuberculin skin tests but normal chest X-rays after initial entry is not definitely known, and was previously estimated from cross-sectional national surveys and derived data for the 2006 and 2011 NICE economic appraisals of new entrant TB screening. METHODS: New entrants aged 16-34 years predominantly from South Asia (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh), with tuberculin tests inappropriately positive for their BCG history were identified for the years 1989-2001 inclusive from a new entrant database. These entrants were compared with the current GP registration database to see if local residence could be confirmed and the local TB notification database to October 2008. Survival analysis was carried out using Kaplan-Meier survival curves and a Cox Regression model. RESULTS: Four hundred and seventy-nine such new entrants with normal initial chest X-rays were identified. Of these 402 (84%) registered with a General Practitioner in East Lancashire for a period of time and could be followed up by this study. The crude incidence density of active TB amongst these individuals with latent disease was 1297 per 100 000 person-years (95% CI; 991-1698 per 100 000 person-years). After 10 and 15 years of follow-up 13.5 and 16.3% of individuals, respectively, had progressed on to active disease. CONCLUSION: This patient-derived, rather than estimated, data shows a minimum risk of TB disease of 16.3% at 15 years. The 2006 NICE economic appraisal, suggested that treatment for latent TB infection (LTBI) was cost-effective when the incidence of clinical TB over 15 years surpassed 18% in these populations. The 2011 NICE economic appraisal reduced this to 12% active TB over 15 years, and showed that at 16% active TB over 15 years a single interferon gamma release assay was the most cost-effective strategy. Further cohort studies are urgently needed to confirm or revise the assumptions behind the 2011 NICE economic appraisal.

Association of blood pressure in adolescence with birthweight.

AIMS: To compare the blood pressure of very low birthweight infants with that of normal birthweight controls in adolescence. METHODS: A cohort of all infants of birthweight < or = 1500 g born to women resident in the county of Merseyside in 1980-1 was followed up at age 15 years with age, sex, and school matched controls. Growth indices and blood pressures were measured under standard conditions. The smoking history of mothers and children and their status for several socioeconomic variables were documented. In a matched pairs analysis systolic and diastolic blood pressures were compared for cases and controls before and after adjusting for height, weight, and body mass index. RESULTS: There were 172 singleton 15 year old survivors of birthweight < 1500 g out of 40,321 live births of Merseyside residents in 1980-1. Of the 172 survivors, 128 (74%) who had no clinical disability and 11 (6%) with a clinical disability but attending normal schools, were assessed with individually matched age, sex, and school controls. Twenty three (13%) had a clinical disability and were attending special schools; these were assessed without controls. Ten (6%) children refused or were unavailable for assessment. The systolic blood pressure was significantly higher in cases than in controls; the mean of the difference was 3.2 mm Hg. The diastolic blood pressure was also higher in the cases, but the difference was not significant. The controls were significantly heavier (4.4 kg), taller (4.0 cm), with larger head circumference (1.5 cm) than the cases. The difference in body mass index was not significant. Adjusting for height, weight, or body mass index increased the difference in systolic blood pressure between cases and controls. There were no significant differences in the socioeconomic variables, but what differences did exist favoured the controls. There was also a higher prevalence of smoking among the children and the mothers of the cases than the controls. CONCLUSIONS: The study supports the hypothesis that in adolescents variation in systolic blood pressure has its origins in fetal development. Some of the variation could be attributed to socioeconomic differences.

Transvaginal ultrasound in the assessment of bladder volumes in women. Preliminary report.

Transvaginal linear array ultrasound is described as a method of measuring bladder volumes in the range 2 to 175 ml, overcoming the limitations of abdominal ultrasound at these smaller (though clinically important) volumes. The mean error over the range 10 to 175 ml was 23%. Statistical analysis of preliminary data obtained by this technique shows that bladder volume in ml can be calculated by the formula: Volume = 5.9 x (height x depth) - 14.6 ml (95% confidence limits = +/- 37 ml)

Chemical Health Effects Assessment Methodology for airborne contaminants.

Chemical Health Effects Assessment Methodology (CHEM) is a new procedure for assessing hazardous properties of airborne toxic contaminants. CHEM evaluates substances for four major health effect categories: carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, reproductive/developmental toxicity, and toxic effects other than the first three. Three elements are considered in the assessment: weight of evidence, potency, and severity of effect. This approach produces a profile of toxic properties of chemicals which preserves their unique multidimensional character and highlights data gaps.