The cost-effectiveness of procalcitonin for guiding antibiotic prescribing in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19: part of the PEACH study.

BACKGROUND: Many hospitals introduced procalcitonin (PCT) testing to help diagnose bacterial coinfection in individuals with COVID-19, and guide antibiotic decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK. OBJECTIVES: Evaluating cost-effectiveness of using PCT to guide antibiotic decisions in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19, as part of a wider research programme. METHODS: Retrospective individual-level data on patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were collected from 11 NHS acute hospital Trusts and Health Boards from England and Wales, which varied in their use of baseline PCT testing during the first COVID-19 pandemic wave. A matched analysis (part of a wider analysis reported elsewhere) created groups of patients whose PCT was/was not tested at baseline. A model was created with combined decision tree/Markov phases, parameterized with quality-of-life/unit cost estimates from the literature, and used to estimate costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Cost-effectiveness was judged at a £20 000/QALY threshold. Uncertainty was characterized using bootstrapping. RESULTS: People who had baseline PCT testing had shorter general ward/ICU stays and spent less time on antibiotics, though with overlap between the groups' 95% CIs. Those with baseline PCT testing accrued more QALYs (8.76 versus 8.62) and lower costs (£9830 versus £10 700). The point estimate was baseline PCT testing being dominant over no baseline testing, though with uncertainty: the probability of cost-effectiveness was 0.579 with a 1 year horizon and 0.872 with a lifetime horizon. CONCLUSIONS: Using PCT to guide antibiotic therapy in individuals hospitalized with COVID-19 is more likely to be cost-effective than not, albeit with uncertainty.

Long-term health conditions and UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Long-term health conditions can affect labour market outcomes. COVID-19 may have increased labour market inequalities, e.g. due to restricted opportunities for clinically vulnerable people. Evaluating COVID-19's impact could help target support. AIM: To quantify the effect of several long-term conditions on UK labour market outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare them to pre-pandemic outcomes. METHODS: The Understanding Society COVID-19 survey collected responses from around 20,000 UK residents in nine waves from April 2020-September 2021. Participants employed in January/February 2020 with a variety of long-term conditions were matched with people without the condition but with similar baseline characteristics. Models estimated probability of employment, hours worked and earnings. We compared these results with results from a two-year pre-pandemic period. We also modelled probability of furlough and home-working frequency during COVID-19. RESULTS: Most conditions (asthma, arthritis, emotional/nervous/psychiatric problems, vascular/pulmonary/liver conditions, epilepsy) were associated with reduced employment probability and/or hours worked during COVID-19, but not pre-pandemic. Furlough was more likely for people with pulmonary conditions. People with arthritis and cancer were slower to return to in-person working. Few effects were seen for earnings. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 had a disproportionate impact on people with long-term conditions' labour market outcomes.

PeRsOnaliSed care Planning for oldER people with frailty (PROSPER): protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is common in older age and is characterised by loss of biological reserves across multiple organ systems. These changes associated with frailty mean older people can be vulnerable to sudden, dramatic changes in health because of relatively small problems. Older people with frailty are at increased risk of adverse outcomes including disability, hospitalisation, and care home admission, with associated reduction in quality of life and increased NHS and social care costs. Personalised Care Planning offers an anticipatory, preventative approach to supporting older adults to live independently for longer, but it has not been robustly evaluated in a population of older adults with frailty. METHODS: Following an initial feasibility study, this multi-centre, individually randomised controlled trial aims to establish whether personalised care planning for older people improves health-related quality of life. It will recruit 1337 participants from general practices across Yorkshire and Humber and Mid-Mersey in the North of England. Eligible patients will be aged 65 and over with an electronic frailty index score of 0.21 or above, living in their own homes, without severe cognitive impairment and not in receipt of end-of-life care. Following confirmation of eligibility, informed consent and baseline data collection, participants will be individually randomised to the PeRsOnaliSed care Planning for oldER people with frailty (PROSPER) intervention or usual care in a 2.6:1 allocation ratio. Participants will not be blinded to allocation, but data collection and analysis will be blinded. The intervention will be delivered over 12 weeks by a Personal Independence Co-ordinator worker based within a voluntary sector organisation, Age UK. The primary outcomes are health-related quality of life, measured using both the physical and mental components of the Short-Form 12 Item Health Questionnaire at 12 months after randomisation. Secondary outcomes comprise activities of daily living, self-management capabilities and loneliness, admission to care homes, hospitalisations, and health and social care resource use at 12 months post randomisation. Parallel cost-effectiveness and process evaluations will be conducted alongside the trial. DISCUSSION: The PROSPER study will evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a personalised care planning approach for older people with frailty and inform the process of its implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN16123291 .  Registered on  28 August 2020.

Cost-effective DNA methylation profiling by FML-seq.

Current methods for profiling DNA methylation require costly reagents, sequencing, and labor time. We introduce fragmentation at methylated loci and sequencing (FML-seq), a sequencing library protocol that greatly reduces all these costs. Relative to other techniques tested on the same human cell lines, FML-seq produces similar measurements of absolute and differential cytosine methylation at a fraction of the price. FML-seq enables inexpensive, high-throughput experimental designs for large-scale epigenetics research projects.

Mid- to late-term follow-up of primary hip and knee arthroplasty: the UK SAFE evidence-based recommendations.

To review the evidence and reach consensus on recommendations for follow-up after total hip and knee arthroplasty. A programme of work was conducted, including: a systematic review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness literature; analysis of routine national datasets to identify pre-, peri-, and postoperative predictors of mid-to-late term revision; prospective data analyses from 560 patients to understand how patients present for revision surgery; qualitative interviews with NHS managers and orthopaedic surgeons; and health economic modelling. Finally, a consensus meeting considered all the work and agreed the final recommendations and research areas. The UK poSt Arthroplasty Follow-up rEcommendations (UK SAFE) recommendations apply to post-primary hip and knee arthroplasty follow-up. The ten-year time point is based on a lack of robust evidence beyond ten years. The term 'complex cases' refers to individual patient and surgical factors that may increase the risk for arthroplasty failure. For Orthopaedic Data Evaluation Panel (ODEP) 10A* minimum implants, it is safe to disinvest in routine follow-up from one to years post-non-complex hip and knee arthroplasty provided there is rapid access to orthopaedic review. For ODEP 10A* minimum implants in complex cases, or non-ODEP 10A* minimum implants, periodic follow-up post-hip and knee arthroplasty may be required from one to ten years. At ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, clinical and radiological evaluation is recommended. After ten years post-hip and knee arthroplasty, frequency of further follow-up should be based on the ten-year assessment; ongoing rapid access to orthopaedic review is still required. Complex cases, implants not meeting the ODEP 10A* criteria, and follow-up after revision surgery are not covered by this recommendation.

Cost-effective DNA methylation profiling by FML-seq.

Current methods for profiling DNA methylation require costly reagents, sequencing, or labor time. We introduce FML-seq, a sequencing library protocol that greatly reduces all these costs. Relative to other techniques tested on the same human cell lines, FML-seq produces similar measurements of absolute and differential cytosine methylation at a fraction of the price. FML-seq enables inexpensive, high-throughput experimental designs for large-scale epigenetics research projects.

In silico predictions of absorption of MDI substances after dermal or inhalation exposures to support a category based read-across assessment.

Methylenediphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) substances used polyurethane production can range from their simplest monomeric forms (e.g., 4,4'-MDI) to mixtures of the monomers with various homologues, homopolymer, and prepolymer derivatives. The relative dermal or inhalation absorption of 39 constituents of these substances in human were predicted using the GastroPlus® program. Predicted dermal uptake and absorption of the three MDI monomers from an acetone vehicle was 84-86% and 1.4-1.5%, respectively, with lower uptake and absorption predicted for the higher MW analogs. Lower absorption was predicted from exposures in a more lipophilic vehicle (1-octanol). Modeled inhalation exposures afforded the highest pulmonary absorption for the MDI monomers (38-54%), with 3-27% for the MW range of 381-751, and <0.1% for the remaining, higher MW derivatives. Predicted oral absorption, representing mucociliary transport, ranged from 5 to 10% for the MDI monomers, 10-25% for constituents of MW 381-751, and ≤3% for constituents with MW > 900. These in silico evaluations should be useful in category-based, worst-case, Read-Across assessments for MDI monomers and modified MDI substances for potential systemic effects. Predictions of appreciable mucociliary transport may also be useful to address data gaps in oral toxicity testing for this category of compounds.

Social care costs for community-dwelling older people living with frailty.

International evidence indicates that older people with frailty are more likely to access social care services, compared to nonfrail older people. There is, however, no robust evidence on costs of social care provided for community-dwelling older people living with frailty in their own homes. The main objective of this study was to examine the relationship between community-dwelling older people living with frailty, defined using the cumulative deficit model, and annual formal social care costs for the 2012-2018 period. A secondary objective was to estimate formal social care spending for every 1% reduction in the number of older people who develop frailty over 1 year. Secondary analysis of prospective cohort data from two large nationally representative community-based cohort studies in England was performed. Respondents aged ≥75 were used in the main analysis and respondents aged 65-74 in sensitivity testing. We used regression tree modelling for formal social care cost analysis including frailty, age, gender, age at completing education and living with partner as key covariates. We employed a minimum node size stopping criteria to limit tree complexity and overfitting and applied 'bootstrap aggregating' to improve robustness. We assessed the impact of an intervention for every 1% decrease in the number of individuals who become frail over 1 year in England. Results show that frailty is the strongest predictor of formal social care costs. Mean social care costs for people who are not frail are £321, compared with £2,895 for individuals with frailty. For every 1% of nonfrail people not transitioning to frailty savings of £4.4 million in annual expenditures on formal social care in England are expected, not including expenditure on care homes. Given considerably higher costs for individuals classed as frail compared to nonfrail, a successful intervention avoiding or postponing the onset of frailty has the potential to considerably reduce social care costs.

Association between cigarette smoking status and voting intentions: Cross sectional surveys in England 2015-2020.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cigarette smoking takes place within a cultural and social context. Political views and practices are an important part of that context. To gain a better understanding of smoking, it may be helpful to understand its association with voting patterns as an expression of the political views and practices of the population who smoke. This study aimed to assess the association between cigarette smoking and voting intentions and to examine how far any association can be explained by sociodemographic factors and alcohol use. METHODS: Pooled monthly representative repeat cross-sectional household surveys of adults (16+) in England (N = 55,482) between 2015 and 2020 were used to assess the association between cigarette smoking status and voting intentions, and whether this was accounted for by age, occupational grade, gender, region and alcohol use. Voting intention was measured by asking 'How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?' Respondents chose from a list of the major English political parties or indicated their intention not to vote. RESULTS: In adjusted multinomial regression, compared with intending to vote Conservative (majority party of government during the period), being undecided (aOR1.22 [1.13-1.33] <0.001), intending to vote Labour (aOR1.27 [1.16-1.36] <0.001), to vote "Other" (aOR1.54 [1.37-1.72] <0.001), or not to vote (aOR1.93 [1.77-2.11] <0.001) was associated with higher odds of current relative to never smoking rates. Intending to vote for the Liberal Democrats was associated with a significant lower odds of current smoking prevalence (aOR0.80 [0.70-0.91] <0.001) compared with intending to vote Conservative. CONCLUSIONS: Controlling for a range of other factors, current as compared with never-smokers appear more likely to intend not to vote, to be undecided, to vote for Labour or a non-mainstream party, and less likely to vote for the Liberal Democrats, compared with the Conservative party.

Integrating Early Economic Evaluation into Target Product Profile development for medical tests: advantages and potential applications.

Target Product Profiles (TPPs) outline the characteristics that new health technologies require to address an unmet clinical need. To date, published TPPs for medical tests have focused on infectious diseases, mostly in the context of low- and middle-income countries. Recently, there have been calls for a broader use of TPPs as a mechanism to ensure that diagnostic innovation is aligned with clinical needs, yet the methodology underpinning TPP development remains suboptimal. Here, we propose that early economic evaluation (EEE) should be integrated within the TPP methodology to create a more rigorous framework for the development of "fit-for-purpose" tests. We discuss the potential benefits that EEE could bring to the core activities underpinning TPP development-scoping, drafting, consensus building, and updating-and argue that using EEE to help inform TPPs provides a more objective, evidence-based, and transparent approach to defining test specifications.

Independent Associations Between Different Measures of Socioeconomic Position and Smoking Status: A Cross-Sectional Study of Adults in England.

INTRODUCTION: To gain a better understanding of the complex and independent associations between different measures of socioeconomic position (SEP) and smoking in England. AIMS AND METHODS: Between March 2013 and January 2019 data were collected from 120 496 adults aged 16+ in England taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study. Of these, 18.04% (n = 21 720) were current smokers. Six indicators of SEP were measured: social grade, employment status, educational qualifications, home and car ownership and income. Models were constructed using ridge regression to assess the contribution of each measure of SEP, taking account of high collinearity. RESULTS: The strongest predictor of smoking status was housing tenure. Those who did not own their own home had twice the odds of smoking compared with homeowners (odds ratio [OR] = 2.01). Social grade, educational qualification, and income were also good predictors. Those in social grades C1 (OR = 1.04), C2 (OR = 1.29), D (OR = 1.39), and E (OR = 1.78) had higher odds of smoking than those in social grade AB. Similarly, those with A-level/equivalent (OR = 1.15), GCSE/vocational (OR = 1.48), other/still studying (OR = 1.12), and no post-16 qualifications (OR = 1.48) had higher odds of smoking than those with university qualifications, as did those who earned in the lowest (OR = 1.23), third (OR = 1.18), and second quartiles (OR = 1.06) compared with those earning in the highest. Associations between smoking and employment (OR = 1.03) and car ownership (OR = 1.05) were much smaller. CONCLUSIONS: Of a variety of socioeconomic measures, housing tenure appears to be the strongest independent predictor of smoking in England, followed by social grade, educational qualifications, and income. Employment status and car ownership have the lowest predictive power. IMPLICATIONS: This study used ridge regression, a technique which takes into account high collinearity between variables, to gain a better understanding of the independent associations between different measures of SEP and smoking in England. The findings provide guidance as to which SEP measures one could use when trying to identifying individuals most at risk from smoking, with housing tenure identified as the strongest independent predictor.

Effectiveness of training stop-smoking advisers to deliver cessation support to the UK national proposed standard versus usual care in Malaysia: a two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: To assess the effectiveness of training stop smoking services providers in Malaysia to deliver support for smoking cessation based on the UK National Centre for Smoking Cessation and Training (NCSCT) standard treatment programme compared with usual care. DESIGN: Two-arm cluster-randomized controlled effectiveness trial across 19 sites with follow-up at 4-week, 3-month, and 6-month. SETTING: Stop smoking services operating in public hospitals in Malaysia. PARTICIPANTS: Five hundred and two smokers [mean ± standard deviation (SD), age 45.6 (13.4) years; 97.4% male] attending stop smoking services in hospital settings in Malaysia: 330 in 10 hospitals in the intervention condition and 172 in nine hospitals in the control condition. INTERVENTION AND COMPARATOR: The intervention consisted of training stop-smoking practitioners to deliver support and follow-up according to the NCSCT Standard Treatment Programme. The comparator was usual care (brief support and follow-up). MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was continuous tobacco smoking abstinence up to 6 months in smokers who received smoking cessation treatment, verified by expired-air carbon monoxide (CO) concentration. Secondary outcomes were continuous CO-verified tobacco smoking abstinence up to 4 weeks and 3 months. RESULTS: Follow-up rates at 4 weeks, 3 months and 6 months were 80.0, 70.6 and 53.3%, respectively, in the intervention group and 48.8, 30.8 and 23.3%, respectively, in the control group. At 6-month follow-up, 93 participants in the intervention group and 19 participants in the control group were abstinent from smoking, representing 28.2 versus 11.0% in an intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis assuming that participants with missing data had resumed smoking, and 52.8 versus 47.5% in a follow-up-only (FUO) analysis. Unadjusted odds ratios (accounting for clustering) were 5.04, (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.22-20.77, P = 0.025) and 1.70, (95% CI = 0.25-11.53, P = 0.589) in the ITT and FUO analyses, respectively. Abstinence rates at 4 week and 3 month follow-ups were significantly higher in the intervention versus control group in the ITT but not the FUO analysis. CONCLUSIONS: On an intention-to-treat analysis with missing-equals-smoking imputation, training Malaysian stop smoking service providers in the UK National Centre for Smoking Cessation and Training standard treatment programme appeared to increase 6 month continuous abstinence rates in smokers seeking help with stopping compared with usual care. However, the effect may have been due to increasing follow-up rates.

Population Dynamics in a Changing Environment: Random versus Periodic Switching.

Environmental changes greatly influence the evolution of populations. Here, we study the dynamics of a population of two strains, one growing slightly faster than the other, competing for resources in a time-varying binary environment modeled by a carrying capacity switching either randomly or periodically between states of abundance and scarcity. The population dynamics is characterized by demographic noise (birth and death events) coupled to a varying environment. We elucidate the similarities and differences of the evolution subject to a stochastically and periodically varying environment. Importantly, the population size distribution is generally found to be broader under intermediate and fast random switching than under periodic variations, which results in markedly different asymptotic behaviors between the fixation probability of random and periodic switching. We also determine the detailed conditions under which the fixation probability of the slow strain is maximal.

Normative Estimates and Agreement Between 2 Measures of Health-Related Quality of Life in Older People With Frailty: Findings From the Community Ageing Research 75+ Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have summarized evidence on health-related quality of life for older people, identifying a range of measures that have been validated, but have not sought to present results by degree of frailty. Furthermore, previous studies did not typically use quality-of-life measures that generate an overall health utility score. Health utility scores are a necessary component of quality-adjusted life-year calculations used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of interventions. METHODS: We calculated normative estimates in mean and standard deviation for EQ-5D-5L, short-form 36-item health questionnaire in frailty (SF-36), and short-form 6-dimension (SF-6D) for a range of established frailty models. We compared response distributions across dimensions of the measures and investigated agreement using Bland-Altman and interclass correlation techniques. RESULTS: The EQ-5D-5L, SF-36, and SF-6D scores decrease and their variability increases with advancing frailty. There is strong agreement between the EQ-5D-5L and SF-6D across the spectrum of frailty. Agreement is lower for people who are most frail, indicating that different components of the 2 instruments may have greater relevance for people with advancing frailty in later life. There is a greater risk of ceiling effects using the EQ-5D-5L rather than the SF-6D. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend the SF-36/SF-6D as an appropriate measure of health-related quality of life for clinical trials if fit older people are the planned target. In trials of interventions involving older people with increasing frailty, we recommend that both the EQ-5D-5L and SF36/SF6D are included, and are used in sensitivity analyses as part of cost-effectiveness evaluation.

Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis.

AIMS: To quantify associations between the success of smoking quit attempts and factors that have varied throughout 2007-2018 at a population level. DESIGN: time series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were aggregated from 54 847 past-year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study which involves monthly repeated cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in England. MEASUREMENTS: The input series were: (1) attempts at smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT); (2) use during a quit attempt of (a) e-cigarettes, (b) NRT over-the-counter, (c) medication on prescription and (d) face-to-face behavioural support; (3) use of roll-your-own tobacco; (4) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (5) tobacco control mass media expenditure; (6) expenditure on smoking; (7) smoker characteristics in the form of (a) high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) socio-economic status and (d) cigarette consumption; (8) implementation of tobacco control policies; and (9) quit attempt rate. FINDINGS: The licensing of NRT for harm reduction was associated with a 0.641% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.073-1.209, P = 0.027] increase in the mean point prevalence of the success rate of quit attempts. For every 1% increase in the mean point prevalence of e-cigarette use and use of prescription medication during a quit attempt, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.106% (95% CI = 0.011-0.201, P = 0.029) and 0.143% (95% CI = 0.009-0.279, P = 0.038), respectively. For every 1% increase in the mean expenditure on tobacco control mass media, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.046% (95% CI = 0.001-0.092, P = 0.046). Other associations were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: In England between 2007 and 2018, licensing of nicotine replacement therapy for use in harm reduction, greater use of e-cigarettes and prescription medications during a quit attempt and higher expenditure on tobacco control mass media were all associated with higher success rates of quit attempts.

Liaison psychiatry-measurement and evaluation of service types, referral patterns and outcomes (LP-MAESTRO): a protocol.

INTRODUCTION: We describe the protocol for a project that will use linkage of routinely collected NHS data to answer a question about the nature and effectiveness of liaison psychiatry services in acute hospitals in England. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The project will use three data sources: (1) Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), a database controlled by NHS Digital that contains patient data relating to emergency department (ED), inpatient and outpatient episodes at hospitals in England; (2) ResearchOne, a research database controlled by The Phoenix Partnership (TPP) that contains patient data relating to primary care provided by organisations using the SystmOne clinical information system and (3) clinical databases controlled by mental health trusts that contain patient data relating to care provided by liaison psychiatry services. We will link patient data from these sources to construct care pathways for patients who have been admitted to a particular hospital and determine those patients who have been seen by a liaison psychiatry service during their admission.Patient care pathways will form the basis of a matched cohort design to test the effectiveness of liaison intervention. We will combine healthcare utilisation within care pathways using cost figures from national databases. We will compare the cost of each care pathway and the impact of a broad set of health-related outcomes to obtain preliminary estimates of cost-effectiveness for liaison psychiatry services. We will carry out an exploratory incremental cost-effectiveness analysis from a whole system perspective. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Individual patient consent will not be feasible for this study. Favourable ethical opinion has been obtained from the NHS Research Ethics Committee (North of Scotland) (REF: 16/NS/0025) for Work Stream 2 (phase 1) of the Liaison psychiatry-measurement and evaluation of service types, referral patterns and outcomes study. The Confidentiality Advisory Group at the Health Research Authority determined that Section 251 approval under Regulation 5 of the Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002 was not required for the study 'on the basis that there is no disclosure of patient identifiable data without consent' (REF: 16/CAG/0037).Results of the study will be published in academic journals in health services research and mental health. Details of the study methodology will also be published in an academic journal. Discussion papers will be authored for health service commissioners.

Comparison of Trends in Self-reported Cigarette Consumption and Sales in England, 2011 to 2018.

Importance: Population cigarette consumption is declining in many countries. Accurate estimates of long- and short-term changes are vital for policy evaluation and planning. Survey data and sales data that are used to make these estimates each have important potential biases, so triangulation using different methods is required for robust estimation. Objectives: To compare monthly estimates of cigarette consumption in England from a nationally representative survey and recorded cigarette sales and to triangulate an accurate estimate of changes in cigarette consumption since 2011. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used time series analyses based on survey data and recorded cigarette sales to estimate and compare trends in population cigarette consumption in England from 2011 to 2018. Survey participants were representative samples of 1700 people aged 16 years or older each month in England. Main Outcomes and Measures: Monthly cigarette retail sales data from August 2011 through February 2018 were obtained from a data agency. Monthly self-reports of cigarette consumption were collected over the same period using the Smoking Toolkit Study. Results: A total of 136 677 individuals (51.1% female; mean [SD] age, 46.7 [18.8] years) were surveyed. Over the study period, mean monthly cigarette consumption in England was 2.85 billion (95% CI, 2.78 billion to 2.93 billion) cigarettes based on survey data compared with 3.08 billion (95% CI, 3.03 billion to 3.13 billion) estimated from sales data. Over the whole period, cigarette consumption declined by 24.4% based on survey data and 24.1% based on sales data. This equated to 118.4 million and 117.4 million fewer cigarettes consumed per month (or approximately 1.4 billion per year) based on survey data and sales data, respectively. After adjusting for underlying trends, month-by-month changes in cigarette consumption were closely aligned: a 1% change in survey-estimated cigarette consumption was associated with a 0.98% (95% CI, 0.53%-1.44%) change in sales estimates. Conclusions and Relevance: Survey data and sales data were closely aligned in showing that overall cigarette sales in England have declined by almost a quarter since 2011, amounting to more than 1 billion fewer cigarettes smoked each year. The alignment between the 2 methods provides increased confidence in the accuracy of parameters provided by the Smoking Toolkit Study and sales data. It indicates that estimated changes in cigarette consumption are robust and provide a meaningful basis for policy evaluation and planning.