Escalating costs of self-injury mortality in the 21st century United States: an interstate observational study.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the economic costs of self-injury mortality (SIM) can inform health planning and clinical and public health interventions, serve as a basis for their evaluation, and provide the foundation for broadly disseminating evidence-based policies and practices. SIM is operationalized as a composite of all registered suicides at any age, and 80% of drug overdose (intoxication) deaths medicolegally classified as 'accidents,' and 90% of corresponding undetermined (intent) deaths in the age group 15 years and older. It is the long-term practice of the United States (US) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to subsume poisoning (drug and nondrug) deaths under the injury rubric. This study aimed to estimate magnitude and change in SIM and suicide costs in 2019 dollars for the United States (US), including the 50 states and the District of Columbia. METHODS: Cost estimates were generated from underlying cause-of-death data for 1999/2000 and 2018/2019 from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Wide-ranging ONline Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER). Estimation utilized the updated version of Medical and Work Loss Cost Estimation Methods for CDC's Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS). Exposures were medical expenditures, lost work productivity, and future quality of life loss. Main outcome measures were disaggregated, annual-averaged total and per capita costs of SIM and suicide for the nation and states in 1999/2000 and 2018/2019. RESULTS: 40,834 annual-averaged self-injury deaths in 1999/2000 and 101,325 in 2018/2019 were identified. Estimated national costs of SIM rose by 143% from $0.46 trillion to $1.12 trillion. Ratios of quality of life and work losses to medical spending in 2019 US dollars in 2018/2019 were 1,476 and 526, respectively, versus 1,419 and 526 in 1999/2000. Total national suicide costs increased 58%-from $318.6 billion to $502.7 billion. National per capita costs of SIM doubled from $1,638 to $3,413 over the observation period; costs of the suicide component rose from $1,137 to $1,534. States in the top quintile for per capita SIM, those whose cost increases exceeded 152%, concentrated in the Great Lakes, Southeast, Mideast and New England. States in the bottom quintile, those with per capita cost increases below 70%, were located in the Far West, Southwest, Plains, and Rocky Mountain regions. West Virginia exhibited the largest increase at 263% and Nevada the smallest at 22%. Percentage per capita cost increases for suicide were smaller than for SIM. Only the Far West, Southwest and Mideast were not represented in the top quintile, which comprised states with increases of 50% or greater. The bottom quintile comprised states with per capita suicide cost increases below 24%. Regions represented were the Far West, Southeast, Mideast and New England. North Dakota and Nevada occupied the extremes on the cost change continuum at 75% and - 1%, respectively. CONCLUSION: The scale and surge in the economic costs of SIM to society are large. Federal and state prevention and intervention programs should be financed with a clear understanding of the total costs-fiscal, social, and personal-incurred by deaths due to self-injurious behaviors.

Association of State Social and Environmental Factors With Rates of Self-injury Mortality and Suicide in the United States.

Importance: Self-injury mortality (SIM) combines suicides and the preponderance of drug misuse-related overdose fatalities. Identifying social and environmental factors associated with SIM and suicide may inform etiologic understanding and intervention design. Objective: To identify factors associated with interstate SIM and suicide rate variation and to assess potential for differential suicide misclassification. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used a partial panel time series with underlying cause-of-death data from 50 US states and the District of Columbia for 1999-2000, 2007-2008, 2013-2014 and 2018-2019. Applying data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, SIM includes all suicides and the preponderance of unintentional and undetermined drug intoxication deaths, reflecting self-harm behaviors. Data were analyzed from February to June 2021. Exposures: Exposures included inequity, isolation, demographic characteristics, injury mechanism, health care access, and medicolegal death investigation system type. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome, SIM, was assessed using unstandardized regression coefficients of interstate variation associations, identified by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator; ratios of crude SIM to suicide rates per 100 000 population were assessed for potential differential suicide misclassification. Results: A total of 101 325 SIMs were identified, including 74 506 (73.5%) among males and 26 819 (26.5%) among females. SIM to suicide rate ratios trended upwards, with an accelerating increase in overdose fatalities classified as unintentional or undetermined (SIM to suicide rate ratio, 1999-2000: 1.39; 95% CI, 1.38-1.41; 2018-2019: 2.12; 95% CI, 2.11-2.14). Eight states recorded a SIM to suicide rate ratio less than 1.50 in 2018-2019 vs 39 states in 1999-2000. Northeastern states concentrated in the highest category (range, 2.10-6.00); only the West remained unrepresented. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator identified 8 factors associated with the SIM rate in 2018-2019: centralized medical examiner system (ß = 4.362), labor underutilization rate (ß = 0.728), manufacturing employment (ß = -0.056), homelessness rate (ß = -0.125), percentage nonreligious (ß = 0.041), non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity (ß = 0.087), prescribed opioids for 30 days or more (ß = 0.117), and percentage without health insurance (ß = -0.013) and 5 factors associated with the suicide rate: percentage male (ß = 1.046), military veteran (ß = 0.747), rural (ß = 0.031), firearm ownership (ß = 0.030), and pain reliever misuse (ß = 1.131). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that SIM rates were associated with modifiable, upstream factors. Although embedded in SIM, suicide unexpectedly deviated in proposed social and environmental determinants. Heterogeneity in medicolegal death investigation processes and data assurance needs further characterization, with the goal of providing the highest-quality reports for developing and tracking public health policies and practices.

Modeling the HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the English speaking Caribbean

The study reported here examines the past and potential future impact of HIV/AIDS in 19 nations of the primarily English-speaking Caribbean. The authors use DemProj, a demographic projection model, to explore two different HIV scenarios. In the low scenario adult HIV prevalence stabilizes at 2 percent in the year 2000, and in the high scenario adult HIV prevalence stabilizes at 5 percent. By the year 2010, annual AIDS incidence exceeds 11 000 cases in the low scenario and 28 000 in the high scenario. In both scenarios, 70 percent of the cases are in young adults 20-45 years old and 12 percent are in children 0-15. Age specific mortality is more than doubled in the 20-40 age range in the low scenario, and more than quadrupled in the high scenario. The impact on death rates is also severe among children 0-10. In assessing the economic impact, the authors estimate that the total annual costs of the epidemic will approach US$ 500 million (in constant 1989 US$) or 2 percent of GDP in the low scenario, and will exceed US$ 1 200 million or 5 percent of GDP in the high scenario

Modeling the HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the English speaking Caribbean

The study reported here examines the past and potential future impact of HIV/AIDS in 19 nations of the primarily English-speaking Caribbean. The authors use DemProj, a demographic projection model, to explore two different HIV scenarios. In the low scenario adult HIV prevalence stabilizes at 2 percent in the year 2000, and in the high scenario adult HIV prevalence stabilizes at 5 percent. By the year 2010, annual AIDS incidence exceeds 11 000 cases in the low scenario and 28 000 in the high scenario. In both scenarios, 70 percent of the cases are in young adults 20-45 years old and 12 percent are in children 0-15. Age specific mortality is more than doubled in the 20-40 age range in the low scenario, and more than quadrupled in the high scenario. The impact on death rates is also severe among children 0-10. In assessing the economic impact, the authors estimate that the total annual costs of the epidemic will approach US$ 500 million (in constant 1989 US$) or 2 percent of GDP in the low scenario, and will exceed US$ 1 200 million or 5 percent of GDP in the high scenario

This article will be published in Spanish in the BOSP. Vol. 117(4), October 1994