Primaquine in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency: an adaptive pharmacometric assessment of ascending dose regimens in healthy volunteers.

Background: Primaquine is an 8-aminoquinoline antimalarial. It is the only widely available treatment to prevent relapses of Plasmodium vivax malaria. The 8-aminoquinolines cause dose-dependent haemolysis in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd). G6PDd is common in malaria endemic areas but testing is often not available. As a consequence primaquine is underused. Methods: We conducted an adaptive pharmacometric study to characterise the relationship between primaquine dose and haemolysis in G6PDd. The aim was to explore shorter and safer primaquine radical cure regimens compared to the currently recommended 8-weekly regimen (0.75 mg/kg once weekly), potentially obviating the need for G6PD testing. Hemizygous G6PDd healthy adult Thai and Burmese male volunteers were admitted to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok. In Part 1, volunteers were given ascending dose primaquine regimens whereby daily doses were increased from 7.5 mg up to 45 mg over 15-20 days. In Part 2 conducted at least 6 months later, a single primaquine 45 mg dose was given. Results: 24 volunteers were enrolled in Part 1, and 16 in Part 2 (13 participated in both studies). In three volunteers, the ascending dose regimen was stopped because of haemolysis (n=1) and asymptomatic increases in transaminases (n=2; one was hepatitis E positive). Otherwise the ascending regimens were well tolerated with no drug-related serious adverse events. In Part 1, the median haemoglobin concentration decline was 3.7 g/dL (range: 2.1-5.9; relative decline of 26% [range: 15-40%]). Primaquine doses up to 0.87 mg/kg/day were tolerated subsequently without clinically significant further falls in haemoglobin. In Part 2, the median haemoglobin concentration decline was 1.7 g/dL (range 0.9-4.1; relative fall of 12% [range: 7-30% decrease]). The ascending dose primaquine regimens gave seven times more drug but resulted in only double the haemoglobin decline. Conclusions: In patients with Southeast Asian G6PDd variants, full radical cure treatment can be given in under 3 weeks compared with the current 8-week regimen. Funding: Medical Research Council of the United Kingdom (MR/R015252/1) and Wellcome (093956/Z/10/C, 223253/Z/21/Z). Clinical trial number: Thai Clinical Trial Registry: TCTR20170830002 and TCTR20220317004.

The assessment of antimalarial drug efficacy in vivo.

Currently recommended methods of assessing the efficacy of uncomplicated falciparum malaria treatment work less well in high-transmission than in low-transmission settings. There is also uncertainty how to assess intermittent preventive therapies and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC), and Plasmodium vivax radical cure. A pharmacometric antimalarial resistance monitoring (PARM) approach is proposed specifically for evaluating slowly eliminated antimalarial drugs in areas of high transmission. In PARM antimalarial drug concentrations at recurrent parasitaemia are measured to identify outliers (i.e., recurrent parasitaemias in the presence of normally suppressive drug concentrations) and to evaluate changes over time. PARM requires characterization of pharmacometric profiles but should be simpler and more sensitive than current molecular genotyping-based methodologies. PARM does not require parasite genotyping and can be applied to the assessment of both prevention and treatment.

Assessment In Vitro of the Antimalarial and Transmission-Blocking Activities of Cipargamin and Ganaplacide in Artemisinin-Resistant Plasmodium falciparum.

Artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum has emerged and spread widely in the Greater Mekong Subregion, threatening current first-line artemisinin combination treatments. New antimalarial drugs are needed urgently. Cipargamin (KAE609) and ganaplacide (KAF156) are promising novel antimalarial compounds in advanced stages of development. Both compounds have potent asexual blood stage activities, inhibit P. falciparum gametocytogenesis, and reduce oocyst development in anopheline mosquitoes. In this study, we compared the asexual and sexual stage activities of cipargamin, ganaplacide, and artesunate in artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum isolates (n = 6; K13 mutations C580Y, G449A, and R539T) from Thailand and Cambodia. Asexual blood stage antimalarial activity was evaluated in a SYBR-green I-based 72-h in vitro assay, and the effects on male and female mature stage V gametocytes were assessed in the P. falciparum dual gamete formation assay. Ganaplacide had higher activities than cipargamin and artesunate, with mean (standard deviation [SD]) 50% inhibitory concentrations (IC50s) against asexual stages of 5.6 (1.2) nM and 6.9 (3.8) nM for male gametocytes and 47.5 (54.7) nM for female gametocytes. Cipargamin had a similar potency against male and female gametocytes, with mean (SD) IC50s of 115.6 (66.9) nM for male gametocytes, 104.9 (84.3) nM for female gametocytes, and 2.4 (0.7) nM for asexual stages. Both cipargamin and ganaplacide showed significant transmission-blocking activities against artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum in vitro.

Epidemiological Characteristics, Ventilator Management, and Clinical Outcome in Patients Receiving Invasive Ventilation in Intensive Care Units from 10 Asian Middle-Income Countries (PRoVENT-iMiC): An International, Multicenter, Prospective Study.

Epidemiology, ventilator management, and outcome in patients receiving invasive ventilation in intensive care units (ICUs) in middle-income countries are largely unknown. PRactice of VENTilation in Middle-income Countries is an international multicenter 4-week observational study of invasively ventilated adult patients in 54 ICUs from 10 Asian countries conducted in 2017/18. Study outcomes included major ventilator settings (including tidal volume [V T ] and positive end-expiratory pressure [PEEP]); the proportion of patients at risk for acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), according to the lung injury prediction score (LIPS), or with ARDS; the incidence of pulmonary complications; and ICU mortality. In 1,315 patients included, median V T was similar in patients with LIPS < 4 and patients with LIPS ≥ 4, but lower in patients with ARDS (7.90 [6.8-8.9], 8.0 [6.8-9.2], and 7.0 [5.8-8.4] mL/kg Predicted body weight; P = 0.0001). Median PEEP was similar in patients with LIPS < 4 and LIPS ≥ 4, but higher in patients with ARDS (five [5-7], five [5-8], and 10 [5-12] cmH2O; P < 0.0001). The proportions of patients with LIPS ≥ 4 or with ARDS were 68% (95% CI: 66-71) and 7% (95% CI: 6-8), respectively. Pulmonary complications increased stepwise from patients with LIPS < 4 to patients with LIPS ≥ 4 and patients with ARDS (19%, 21%, and 38% respectively; P = 0.0002), with a similar trend in ICU mortality (17%, 34%, and 45% respectively; P < 0.0001). The capacity of the LIPS to predict development of ARDS was poor (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] area under the curve [AUC] of 0.62, 95% CI: 0.54-0.70). In Asian middle-income countries, where two-thirds of ventilated patients are at risk for ARDS according to the LIPS and pulmonary complications are frequent, setting of V T is globally in line with current recommendations.

Treatment-seeking behaviour for febrile illnesses and its implications for malaria control and elimination in Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR (Laos): a mixed method study.

BACKGROUND: How people respond to febrile illness is critical to malaria prevention, control, and ultimately elimination. This article explores factors affecting treatment-seeking behaviour for febrile illnesses in a remote area of Lao PDR. METHODS: Household heads or their representatives (n = 281) were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. A total of twelve focus group discussions (FGDs) each with eight to ten participants were conducted in four villages. In addition, observations were recorded as field notes (n = 130) and were used to collect information on the local context, including the treatment seeking behaviour and the health services. RESULTS: Almost three-quarters (201/281) of respondents reported fever in past two months. Most (92%, 185/201) sought treatment of which 80% (149/185) sought treatment at a health centre. Geographic proximity to a health centre (AOR = 6.5; CI = 1.74-24.25; for those < 3.5 km versus those > 3.6 km) and previous experience of attending a health centre (AOR = 4.7; CI = 1.2-19.1) were strong predictors of visiting a health centre for febrile symptoms. During FGDs, respondents described seeking treatment from traditional healers and at health centre for mild to moderate illnesses. Respondents also explained how if symptoms, including fever, were severe or persisted after receiving treatment elsewhere, they sought assistance at health centres. Access to local health centres/hospitals was often constrained by a lack of transportation and an ability to meet the direct and indirect costs of a visit. CONCLUSION: In Nong District, a rural area bordering Vietnam, people seek care from health centres offering allopathic medicine and from spiritual healers. Decisions about where and when to attend health care depended on their economic status, mobility (distance to the health centre, road conditions, availability of transport), symptoms severity and illness recognition. Current and future malaria control/elimination programmes could benefit from greater collaboration with the locally accessible sources of treatments, such as health volunteers and traditional healers.

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Assessment of the Hepatic and Bone Marrow Toxicities of the New Trypanoside Fexinidazole.

Fexinidazole is a novel oral treatment for human African trypanosomiasis caused by Trypanosoma brucei gambiense (g-HAT). Fexinidazole also has activity against T. cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease. During the course of a dose ranging assessment in patients with chronic indeterminate Chagas disease, delayed neutropenia and significant increases in hepatic transaminases were observed and clinical investigations were suspended. We retrospectively analyzed all available pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic data on fexinidazole in normal healthy volunteers and in patients with Chagas disease and g-HAT to assess the determinants of toxicity. A population pharmacokinetic model was fitted to plasma concentrations (n = 4,549) of the bioactive fexinidazole sulfone metabolite, accounting for the majority of the bioactive exposure, from three phase 1 studies, two g-HAT phase 2/3 field trials, and one Chagas disease phase 2 field trial (n = 462 individuals in total). Bayesian exposure-response models were then fitted to hematological and liver-related pharmacodynamic outcomes in Chagas disease patients. Neutropenia, reductions in platelet counts, and elevations in liver transaminases were all found to be exposure dependent and, thus, dose dependent in patients with Chagas disease. Clinically insignificant transient reductions in neutrophil and platelet counts consistent with these exposure-response relationships were observed in patients with g-HAT. In contrast, no evidence of hepatotoxicity was observed in patients with g-HAT. Fexinidazole treatment results in a dose-dependent liver toxicity and transient bone marrow suppression in Chagas disease patients. Regimens of shorter duration should be evaluated in clinical trials with patients with Chagas disease. The currently recommended regimen for sleeping sickness provides exposures within a satisfactory safety margin for bone marrow suppression and does not cause hepatotoxicity.

Association of the Quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) Score With Excess Hospital Mortality in Adults With Suspected Infection in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Importance: The quick Sequential (Sepsis-Related) Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score has not been well-evaluated in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Objective: To assess the association of qSOFA with excess hospital death among patients with suspected infection in LMICs and to compare qSOFA with the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria. Design, Settings, and Participants: Retrospective secondary analysis of 8 cohort studies and 1 randomized clinical trial from 2003 to 2017. This study included 6569 hospitalized adults with suspected infection in emergency departments, inpatient wards, and intensive care units of 17 hospitals in 10 LMICs across sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Exposures: Low (0), moderate (1), or high (≥2) qSOFA score (range, 0 [best] to 3 [worst]) or SIRS criteria (range, 0 [best] to 4 [worst]) within 24 hours of presentation to study hospital. Main Outcomes and Measures: Predictive validity (measured as incremental hospital mortality beyond that predicted by baseline risk factors, as a marker of sepsis or analogous severe infectious course) of the qSOFA score (primary) and SIRS criteria (secondary). Results: The cohorts were diverse in enrollment criteria, demographics (median ages, 29-54 years; males range, 36%-76%), HIV prevalence (range, 2%-43%), cause of infection, and hospital mortality (range, 1%-39%). Among 6218 patients with nonmissing outcome status in the combined cohort, 643 (10%) died. Compared with a low or moderate score, a high qSOFA score was associated with increased risk of death overall (19% vs 6%; difference, 13% [95% CI, 11%-14%]; odds ratio, 3.6 [95% CI, 3.0-4.2]) and across cohorts (P < .05 for 8 of 9 cohorts). Compared with a low qSOFA score, a moderate qSOFA score was also associated with increased risk of death overall (8% vs 3%; difference, 5% [95% CI, 4%-6%]; odds ratio, 2.8 [95% CI, 2.0-3.9]), but not in every cohort (P < .05 in 2 of 7 cohorts). High, vs low or moderate, SIRS criteria were associated with a smaller increase in risk of death overall (13% vs 8%; difference, 5% [95% CI, 3%-6%]; odds ratio, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.4-2.0]) and across cohorts (P < .05 for 4 of 9 cohorts). qSOFA discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.70 [95% CI, 0.68-0.72]) was superior to that of both the baseline model (AUROC, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.53-0.58; P < .001) and SIRS (AUROC, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.57-0.62]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: When assessed among hospitalized adults with suspected infection in 9 LMIC cohorts, the qSOFA score identified infected patients at risk of death beyond that explained by baseline factors. However, the predictive validity varied among cohorts and settings, and further research is needed to better understand potential generalizability.

Host immunity to Plasmodium falciparum and the assessment of emerging artemisinin resistance in a multinational cohort.

Artemisinin-resistant falciparum malaria, defined by a slow-clearance phenotype and the presence of kelch13 mutants, has emerged in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Naturally acquired immunity to malaria clears parasites independent of antimalarial drugs. We hypothesized that between- and within-population variations in host immunity influence parasite clearance after artemisinin treatment and the interpretation of emerging artemisinin resistance. Antibodies specific to 12 Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite and blood-stage antigens were determined in 959 patients (from 11 sites in Southeast Asia) participating in a multinational cohort study assessing parasite clearance half-life (PCt1/2) after artesunate treatment and kelch13 mutations. Linear mixed-effects modeling of pooled individual patient data assessed the association between antibody responses and PCt1/2.P. falciparum antibodies were lowest in areas where the prevalence of kelch13 mutations and slow PCt1/2 were highest [Spearman ρ = -0.90 (95% confidence interval, -0.97, -0.65), and Spearman ρ = -0.94 (95% confidence interval, -0.98, -0.77), respectively]. P. falciparum antibodies were associated with faster PCt1/2 (mean difference in PCt1/2 according to seropositivity, -0.16 to -0.65 h, depending on antigen); antibodies have a greater effect on the clearance of kelch13 mutant compared with wild-type parasites (mean difference in PCt1/2 according to seropositivity, -0.22 to -0.61 h faster in kelch13 mutants compared with wild-type parasites). Naturally acquired immunity accelerates the clearance of artemisinin-resistant parasites in patients with falciparum malaria and may confound the current working definition of artemisinin resistance. Immunity may also play an important role in the emergence and transmission potential of artemisinin-resistant parasites.

Community engagement and the social context of targeted malaria treatment: a qualitative study in Kayin (Karen) State, Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: The spread of artemisinin-resistance in Plasmodium falciparum is a threat to current global malaria control initiatives. Targeted malaria treatment (TMT), which combines mass anti-malarial administration with conventional malaria prevention and control measures, has been proposed as a strategy to tackle this problem. The effectiveness of TMT depends on high levels of population coverage and is influenced by accompanying community engagement activities and the local social context. The article explores how these factors influenced attitudes and behaviours towards TMT in Kayin (Karen) State, Myanmar. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with villagers from study villages (N = 31) and TMT project staff (N = 14) between March and July 2015. RESULTS: Community engagement consisted of a range of activities to communicate the local malaria situation (including anti-malarial drug resistance and asymptomatic malaria), the aims of the TMT project, and its potential benefits. Community engagement was seen by staff as integral to the TMT project as a whole and not a sub-set of activities. Attitudes towards TMT (including towards community engagement) showed that developing trusting relationships helped foster participation. After initial wariness, staff received hospitality and acceptance among villagers. Offering healthcare alongside TMT proved mutually beneficial for the study and villagers. A handful of more socially-mobile and wealthy community members were reluctant to participate. The challenges of community engagement included time constraints and the isolation of the community with its limited infrastructure and a history of conflict. CONCLUSIONS: Community engagement had to be responsive to the local community even though staff faced time constraints. Understanding the social context of engagement helped TMT to foster respectful and trusting relationships. The complex relationship between the local context and community engagement complicated evaluation of the community strategy. Nonetheless, the project did record high levels of population coverage.

Assessment of therapeutic responses to gametocytocidal drugs in Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

Indirect clinical measures assessing anti-malarial drug transmission-blocking activity in falciparum malaria include measurement of the duration of gametocytaemia, the rate of gametocyte clearance or the area under the gametocytaemia-time curve (AUC). These may provide useful comparative information, but they underestimate dose-response relationships for transmission-blocking activity. Following 8-aminoquinoline administration P. falciparum gametocytes are sterilized within hours, whereas clearance from blood takes days. Gametocytaemia AUC and clearance times are determined predominantly by the more numerous female gametocytes, which are generally less drug sensitive than the minority male gametocytes, whereas transmission-blocking activity and thus infectivity is determined by the more sensitive male forms. In choosing doses of transmission-blocking drugs there is no substitute yet for mosquito-feeding studies.

Artemisinin resistance--modelling the potential human and economic costs.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin combination therapy is recommended as first-line treatment for falciparum malaria across the endemic world and is increasingly relied upon for treating vivax malaria where chloroquine is failing. Artemisinin resistance was first detected in western Cambodia in 2007, and is now confirmed in the Greater Mekong region, raising the spectre of a malaria resurgence that could undo a decade of progress in control, and threaten the feasibility of elimination. The magnitude of this threat has not been quantified. METHODS: This analysis compares the health and economic consequences of two future scenarios occurring once artemisinin-based treatments are available with high coverage. In the first scenario, artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) is largely effective in the management of uncomplicated malaria and severe malaria is treated with artesunate, while in the second scenario ACT are failing at a rate of 30%, and treatment of severe malaria reverts to quinine. The model is applied to all malaria-endemic countries using their specific estimates for malaria incidence, transmission intensity and GDP. The model describes the direct medical costs for repeated diagnosis and retreatment of clinical failures as well as admission costs for severe malaria. For productivity losses, the conservative friction costing method is used, which assumes a limited economic impact for individuals that are no longer economically active until they are replaced from the unemployment pool. RESULTS: Using conservative assumptions and parameter estimates, the model projects an excess of 116,000 deaths annually in the scenario of widespread artemisinin resistance. The predicted medical costs for retreatment of clinical failures and for management of severe malaria exceed US$32 million per year. Productivity losses resulting from excess morbidity and mortality were estimated at US$385 million for each year during which failing ACT remained in use as first-line treatment. CONCLUSIONS: These 'ballpark' figures for the magnitude of the health and economic threat posed by artemisinin resistance add weight to the call for urgent action to detect the emergence of resistance as early as possible and contain its spread from known locations in the Mekong region to elsewhere in the endemic world.

Cost of treating inpatient falciparum malaria on the Thai-Myanmar border.

BACKGROUND: Despite demonstrated benefits and World Health Organization (WHO) endorsement, parenteral artesunate is the recommended treatment for patients with severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria in only one fifth of endemic countries. One possible reason for this slow uptake is that a treatment course of parenteral artesunate is costlier than quinine and might, therefore, pose a substantial economic burden to health care systems. This analysis presents a detailed account of the resources used in treating falciparum malaria by either parenteral artesunate or quinine in a hospital on the Thai-Myanmar border. METHODS: The analysis used data from four studies, with random allocation of inpatients with falciparum malaria to treatment with parenteral artesunate or quinine, conducted in Mae Sot Hospital, Thailand from 1995 to 2001. Detailed resource use data were collected during admission and unit costs from the 2008 hospital price list were applied to these. Total admission costs were broken down into five categories: 1) medication; 2) intravenous fluids; 3) disposables; 4) laboratory tests; and 5) services. RESULTS: While the medication costs were higher for patients treated with artesunate, total admission costs were similar in those treated with quinine, US$ 243 (95% CI: 167.5-349.7) and in those treated with artesunate US$ 190 (95% CI: 131.0-263.2) (P=0.375). For cases classified as severe malaria (59%), the total cost of admission was US$ 298 (95% CI: 203.6-438.7) in the quinine group as compared with US$ 284 (95% CI: 181.3-407) in the artesunate group (P=0.869). CONCLUSION: This analysis finds no evidence for a difference in total admission costs for malaria inpatients treated with artesunate as compared with quinine. Assuming this is generalizable to other settings, the higher cost of a course of artesunate should not be considered a barrier for its implementation in the treatment of malaria.

Ethics, economics, and the use of primaquine to reduce falciparum malaria transmission in asymptomatic populations.

Yoel Lubell and colleagues consider ethical and economic perspectives on mass drug administration of primaquine to limit transmission of P. falciparum malaria. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Statistical power calculations for mixed pharmacokinetic study designs using a population approach.

Simultaneous modelling of dense and sparse pharmacokinetic data is possible with a population approach. To determine the number of individuals required to detect the effect of a covariate, simulation-based power calculation methodologies can be employed. The Monte Carlo Mapped Power method (a simulation-based power calculation methodology using the likelihood ratio test) was extended in the current study to perform sample size calculations for mixed pharmacokinetic studies (i.e. both sparse and dense data collection). A workflow guiding an easy and straightforward pharmacokinetic study design, considering also the cost-effectiveness of alternative study designs, was used in this analysis. Initially, data were simulated for a hypothetical drug and then for the anti-malarial drug, dihydroartemisinin. Two datasets (sampling design A: dense; sampling design B: sparse) were simulated using a pharmacokinetic model that included a binary covariate effect and subsequently re-estimated using (1) the same model and (2) a model not including the covariate effect in NONMEM 7.2. Power calculations were performed for varying numbers of patients with sampling designs A and B. Study designs with statistical power >80% were selected and further evaluated for cost-effectiveness. The simulation studies of the hypothetical drug and the anti-malarial drug dihydroartemisinin demonstrated that the simulation-based power calculation methodology, based on the Monte Carlo Mapped Power method, can be utilised to evaluate and determine the sample size of mixed (part sparsely and part densely sampled) study designs. The developed method can contribute to the design of robust and efficient pharmacokinetic studies.

Motivations and perceptions of community advisory boards in the ethics of medical research: the case of the Thai-Myanmar border.

BACKGROUND: Community engagement is increasingly promoted as a marker of good, ethical practice in the context of international collaborative research in low-income countries. There is, however, no widely agreed definition of community engagement or of approaches adopted. Justifications given for its use also vary. Community engagement is, for example, variously seen to be of value in: the development of more effective and appropriate consent processes; improved understanding of the aims and forms of research; higher recruitment rates; the identification of important ethical issues; the building of better relationships between the community and researchers; the obtaining of community permission to approach potential research participants; and, the provision of better health care. Despite these diverse and potentially competing claims made for the importance of community engagement, there is very little published evidence on effective models of engagement or their evaluation. METHODS: In this paper, drawing upon interviews with the members of a Community Advisory Board on the Thai-Myanmar border, we describe and critically reflect upon an approach to community engagement which was developed in the context of international collaborative research in the border region. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Drawing on our analysis, we identify a number of considerations relevant to the development of an approach to evaluating community engagement in this complex research setting. The paper also identifies a range of important ways in which the Community Advisory Board is in practice understood by its members (and perhaps by community members beyond this) to have morally significant roles and responsibilities beyond those usually associated with the successful and appropriate conduct of research.

Rapid clinical assessment to facilitate the triage of adults with falciparum malaria, a retrospective analysis.

BACKGROUND: Most adults dying from falciparum malaria will die within 48 hours of their hospitalisation. An essential component of early supportive care is the rapid identification of patients at greatest risk. In resource-poor settings, where most patients with falciparum malaria are managed, decisions regarding patient care must frequently be made using clinical evaluation alone. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 4 studies of 1801 adults with severe falciparum malaria to determine whether the presence of simple clinical findings might assist patient triage. RESULTS: If present on admission, shock, oligo-anuria, hypo- or hyperglycaemia, an increased respiratory rate, a decreased Glasgow Coma Score and an absence of fever were independently predictive of death. The variables were used to construct a simple clinical algorithm. When applied to the 1801 patients, this algorithm's positive predictive value for survival to 48 hours was 99.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 97.8-99.9) and for survival to discharge 96.9% (95% CI 94.3-98.5). In the 712 patients receiving artesunate, the algorithm's positive predictive value for survival to 48 hours was 100% (95% CI 97.3-100) and to discharge was 98.5% (95% CI 94.8-99.8). CONCLUSIONS: Simple clinical findings are closely linked to the pathophysiology of severe falciparum malaria in adults. A basic algorithm employing these indices can facilitate the triage of patients in settings where intensive care services are limited. Patients classified as low-risk by this algorithm can be safely managed initially on a general ward whilst awaiting senior clinical review and laboratory data.

Population pharmacokinetic assessment of the effect of food on piperaquine bioavailability in patients with uncomplicated malaria.

Previously published literature reports various impacts of food on the oral bioavailability of piperaquine. The aim of this study was to use a population modeling approach to investigate the impact of concomitant intake of a small amount of food on piperaquine pharmacokinetics. This was an open, randomized comparison of piperaquine pharmacokinetics when administered as a fixed oral formulation once daily for 3 days with (n=15) and without (n=15) concomitant food to patients with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Thailand. Nonlinear mixed-effects modeling was used to characterize the pharmacokinetics of piperaquine and the influence of concomitant food intake. A modified Monte Carlo mapped power approach was applied to evaluate the relationship between statistical power and various degrees of covariate effect sizes of the given study design. Piperaquine population pharmacokinetics were described well in fasting and fed patients by a three-compartment distribution model with flexible absorption. The final model showed a 25% increase in relative bioavailability per dose occasion during recovery from malaria but demonstrated no clinical impact of concomitant intake of a low-fat meal. Body weight and age were both significant covariates in the final model. The novel power approach concluded that the study was adequately powered to detect a food effect of at least 35%. This modified Monte Carlo mapped power approach may be a useful tool for evaluating the power to detect true covariate effects in mixed-effects modeling and a given study design. A small amount of food does not affect piperaquine absorption significantly in acute malaria.

The effect of insecticide-treated bed nets on the incidence and prevalence of malaria in children in an area of unstable seasonal transmission in western Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN) reduce malaria morbidity and mortality consistently in Africa, but their benefits have been less consistent in Asia. This study's objective was to evaluate the malaria protective efficacy of village-wide usage of ITN in Western Myanmar and estimate the cost-effectiveness of ITN compared with extending early diagnosis and treatment services. METHODS: A cluster-randomized controlled trial was conducted in Rakhine State to assess the efficacy of ITNs in preventing malaria and anaemia in children and their secondary effects on nutrition and development. The data were aggregated for each village to obtain cluster-level infection rates. In total 8,175 children under 10 years of age were followed up for 10 months, which included the main malaria transmission period. The incidence and prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections, and the biting behaviour of Anopheles mosquitoes in the area were studied concurrently. The trial data along with costs for current recommended treatment practices were modelled to estimate the cost-effectiveness of ITNs compared with, or in addition to extending the coverage of early diagnosis and treatment services. RESULTS: In aggregate, malaria infections, spleen rates, haemoglobin concentrations, and weight for height, did not differ significantly during the study period between villages with and without ITNs, with a weighted mean difference of -2.6 P. falciparum episodes per 1,000 weeks at risk (95% Confidence Interval -7 to 1.8). In areas with a higher incidence of malaria there was some evidence ITN protective efficacy. The economic analysis indicated that, despite the uncertainty and variability in their protective efficacy in the different study sites, ITN could still be cost-effective, but not if they displaced funding for early diagnosis and effective treatment which is substantially more cost-effective. CONCLUSION: In Western Myanmar deployment of ITNs did not provide consistent protection against malaria in children living in malaria endemic villages. Early diagnosis and effective treatment is a more cost effective malaria control strategy than deployment of ITNs in this area where the main vector bites early in the evening, often before people are protected by an ITN.

Cost-effectiveness of parenteral artesunate for treating children with severe malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the cost-effectiveness of parenteral artesunate for the treatment of severe malaria in children and its potential impact on hospital budgets. METHODS: The costs of inpatient care of children with severe malaria were assessed in four of the 11 sites included in the African Quinine Artesunate Malaria Treatment trial, conducted with over 5400 children. The drugs, laboratory tests and intravenous fluids provided to 2300 patients from admission to discharge were recorded, as was the length of inpatient stay, to calculate the cost of inpatient care. The data were matched with pooled clinical outcomes and entered into a decision model to calculate the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted and the cost per death averted. FINDINGS: The mean cost of treating severe malaria patients was similar in the two study groups: 63.5 United States dollars (US$) (95% confidence interval, CI: 61.7-65.2) in the quinine arm and US$ 66.5 (95% CI: 63.7-69.2) in the artesunate arm. Children treated with artesunate had 22.5% lower mortality than those treated with quinine and the same rate of neurological sequelae: (artesunate arm: 2.3 DALYs per patient; quinine arm: 3.0 DALYs per patient). Compared with quinine as a baseline, artesunate showed an incremental cost per DALY averted and an incremental cost per death averted of US$ 3.8 and US$ 123, respectively. CONCLUSION: Artesunate is a highly cost-effective and affordable alternative to quinine for treating children with severe malaria. The budgetary implications of adopting artesunate for routine use in hospital-based care are negligible.