Understanding racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality using a novel metric: COVID excess mortality percentage.

Prior research on racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality has often not considered to what extent they reflect COVID-19-specific factors, versus preexisting health differences. This study examines how racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality vary with age, sex, and time period over April-December 2020 in the United States, using mortality from other natural causes as a proxy for underlying health. We study a novel measure, the COVID excess mortality percentage (CEMP), defined as the COVID-19 mortality rate divided by the non-COVID natural mortality rate, converted to a percentage, where the CEMP denominator controls (albeit imperfectly) for differences in population health. Disparities measured using CEMP deviate substantially from those in prior research. In particular, we find very high disparities (up to 12:1) in CEMP rates for Hispanics versus Whites, particularly for nonelderly men. Asians also have elevated CEMP rates versus Whites, which were obscured in prior work by lower overall Asian mortality. Native Americans and Blacks have significant disparities compared with White populations, but CEMP ratios to Whites are lower than ratios reported in other work. This is because the higher COVID-19 mortality for Blacks and Native Americans comes partly from higher general mortality risk and partly from COVID-specific risk.

Evidence on COVID-19 Mortality and Disparities Using a Novel Measure, COVID excess mortality percentage: Evidence from Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

COVID-19 mortality rates increase rapidly with age, are higher among men than women, and vary across racial/ethnic groups, but this is also true for other natural causes of death. Prior research on COVID-19 mortality rates and racial/ethnic disparities in those rates has not considered to what extent disparities reflect COVID-19-specific factors, versus preexisting health differences. This study examines both questions. We study the COVID-19-related increase in mortality risk and racial/ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality, and how both vary with age, gender, and time period. We use a novel measure validated in prior work, the COVID Excess Mortality Percentage (CEMP), defined as the COVID-19 mortality rate (Covid-MR), divided by the non-COVID natural mortality rate during the same time period (non-Covid NMR), converted to a percentage. The CEMP denominator uses Non-COVID NMR to adjust COVID-19 mortality risk for underlying population health. The CEMP measure generates insights which differ from those using two common measures-the COVID-MR and the all-cause excess mortality rate. By studying both CEMP and COVID-MRMR, we can separate the effects of background health from Covid-specific factors affecting COVID-19 mortality. We study how CEMP and COVID-MR vary by age, gender, race/ethnicity, and time period, using data on all adult decedents from natural causes in Indiana and Wisconsin over April 2020-June 2022 and Illinois over April 2020-December 2021. CEMP levels for racial and ethnic minority groups can be very high relative to White levels, especially for Hispanics in 2020 and the first-half of 2021. For example, during 2020, CEMP for Hispanics aged 18-59 was 68.9% versus 7.2% for non-Hispanic Whites; a ratio of 9.57:1. CEMP disparities are substantial but less extreme for other demographic groups. Disparities were generally lower after age 60 and declined over our sample period. Differences in socio-economic status and education explain only a small part of these disparities.

The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Elderly: Population Fatality Rates, COVID Mortality Percentage, and Life Expectancy Loss.

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected the elderly. This Article provides a detailed analysis of those effects, drawing primarily on individual-level mortality data covering almost three million persons aged 65+ in three Midwest states (Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin). We report sometimes surprising findings on population fatality rates ("PFR"), the ratio of COVID to non-COVID deaths, reported as a percentage, which we call the "Covid Mortality Percentage," and mean life expectancy loss ("LEL"). We examine how these COVID-19 outcomes vary with age, gender, race/ethnicity, socio-economic status, and time period during the pandemic. For all persons in the three Midwest areas, COVID PFR through year-end 2021 was 0.22%, mean years of life lost ("YLL") was 13.0 years, the COVID Mortality Percentage was 12.4%, and LEL was 0.028 years (eleven days). In contrast, for the elderly, PFR was 1.03%; YLL was 8.8 years, the COVID Mortality Percentage was 13.2%, and LEL was 0.091 years (thirty-four days). Controlling for gender, PFR and LEL were substantially higher for Blacks and Hispanics than for Whites at all ages. Racial/ethnic disparities for the elderly were large early in the pandemic but diminished later. Although COVID-19 mortality was much higher for the elderly, the COVID Mortality Percentage over the full pandemic period was only modestly higher for the elderly, at 13.2%, than for non-elderly adults aged 25-64, at 11.1%. Indeed, in 2021, this ratio was lower for the elderly than for the middle-aged, reflecting higher elderly vaccination rates.

Cost-Effectiveness of Intensive versus Standard Blood-Pressure Control.

BACKGROUND: In the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), adults at high risk for cardiovascular disease who received intensive systolic blood-pressure control (target, <120 mm Hg) had significantly lower rates of death and cardiovascular disease events than did those who received standard control (target, <140 mm Hg). On the basis of these data, we wanted to determine the lifetime health benefits and health care costs associated with intensive control versus standard control. METHODS: We used a microsimulation model to apply SPRINT treatment effects and health care costs from national sources to a hypothetical cohort of SPRINT-eligible adults. The model projected lifetime costs of treatment and monitoring in patients with hypertension, cardiovascular disease events and subsequent treatment costs, treatment-related risks of serious adverse events and subsequent costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for intensive control versus standard control of systolic blood pressure. RESULTS: We determined that the mean number of QALYs would be 0.27 higher among patients who received intensive control than among those who received standard control and would cost approximately $47,000 more per QALY gained if there were a reduction in adherence and treatment effects after 5 years; the cost would be approximately $28,000 more per QALY gained if the treatment effects persisted for the remaining lifetime of the patient. Most simulation results indicated that intensive treatment would be cost-effective (51 to 79% below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY and 76 to 93% below the threshold of $100,000 per QALY), regardless of whether treatment effects were reduced after 5 years or persisted for the remaining lifetime. CONCLUSIONS: In this simulation study, intensive systolic blood-pressure control prevented cardiovascular disease events and prolonged life and did so at levels below common willingness-to-pay thresholds per QALY, regardless of whether benefits were reduced after 5 years or persisted for the patient's remaining lifetime. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others; SPRINT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01206062 .).

A study to reduce readmissions after surgery in the Veterans Health Administration: design and methodology.

BACKGROUND: Hospital readmissions are associated with higher resource utilization and worse patient outcomes. Causes of unplanned readmission to the hospital are multiple with some being better targets for intervention than others. To understand risk factors for surgical readmission and their incremental contribution to current Veterans Health Administration (VA) surgical quality assessment, the study, Improving Surgical Quality: Readmission (ISQ-R), is being conducted to develop a readmission risk prediction tool, explore predisposing and enabling factors, and identify and rank reasons for readmission in terms of salience and mutability. METHODS: Harnessing the rich VA enterprise data, predictive readmission models are being developed in data from patients who underwent surgical procedures within the VA 2007-2012. Prospective assessment of psychosocial determinants of readmission including patient self-efficacy, cognitive, affective and caregiver status are being obtained from a cohort having colorectal, thoracic or vascular procedures at four VA hospitals in 2015-2017. Using these two data sources, ISQ-R will develop readmission categories and validate the readmission risk prediction model. A modified Delphi process will convene surgeons, non-surgeon clinicians and quality improvement nurses to rank proposed readmission categories vis-à-vis potential preventability. DISCUSSION: ISQ-R will identify promising avenues for interventions to facilitate improvements in surgical quality, informing specifications for surgical workflow managers seeking to improve care and reduce cost. ISQ-R will work with Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to recommend potential new elements VASQIP might collect to monitor surgical complications and readmissions which might be preventable and ultimately improve surgical care.

A randomized trial of peer-delivered self-management support for hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Peer-led interventions to improve chronic disease self-management can improve health outcomes but are not widely used. Therefore, we tested a peer-led hypertension self-management intervention delivered at regular meetings of community veterans' organizations. METHODS: We randomized 58 organizational units ("posts") of veterans' organizations in southeast Wisconsin to peer-led vs. professionally delivered self-management education. Volunteer peer leaders at peer-led posts delivered monthly presentations regarding hypertension self-management during regular post meetings. Volunteer post representatives at seminar posts encouraged post members to attend 3 didactic seminars delivered by health professionals at a time separate from the post meeting. Volunteers in both groups encouraged members to self-monitor using blood pressure cuffs, weight scales, and pedometers. Our primary outcome was change in systolic blood pressure (SBP) at 12 months. RESULTS: We measured SBP in 404 participants at baseline and in 379 participants at 12 months. SBP decreased significantly (4.4mm Hg; P < 0.0001) overall; the decrease was similar in peer-led and seminar posts (3.5mm Hg vs. 5.4mm Hg; P = 0.24). Among participants with uncontrolled BP at baseline, SBP decreased by 10.1mm Hg from baseline to 12 months but was again similar in the 2 groups. This pattern was also seen at 6 months and with diastolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: Our peer-led educational intervention was not more effective than didactic seminars for SBP control. Although peer-led educational programs have had important impacts in a number of studies, we did not find our intervention superior to a similar intervention delivered by healthcare professionals. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00571038.

The association of lacking insurance with outcomes of severe sepsis: retrospective analysis of an administrative database*.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with severe sepsis have high mortality that is improved by timely, often expensive, treatments. Patients without insurance are more likely to delay seeking care; they may also receive less intense care. DESIGN: We performed a retrospective analysis of administrative database-Healthcare Costs and Utilization Project's Nationwide Inpatient Sample-to test whether mortality is more likely among uninsured patients hospitalized for severe sepsis. PATIENTS: None. INTERVENTIONS: We used International Classification of Diseases-9th Revision, Clinical Modification, codes indicating sepsis and organ system failure to identify hospitalizations for severe sepsis among patients aged 18-64 between 2000 and 2008. We excluded patients with end-stage renal disease or solid organ transplants because very few are uninsured. We performed multivariate logistic regression modeling to examine the association of insurance status and in-hospital mortality, adjusted for patient and hospital characteristics. We performed subgroup analysis to examine whether the impact of insurance status varied by geographical region; by patient age, sex, or race; or by hospital characteristics such as teaching status, size, or ownership. We used similar methods to examine the impact of insurance status on the use of certain procedures, length of stay, and discharge destination. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There were 1,600,269 discharges with severe sepsis from 2000 through 2008 in the age group 18-64 years. Uninsured people, who accounted for 7.5% of admissions with severe sepsis, had higher adjusted odds of mortality (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.37-1.47) than privately insured people. The higher mortality in uninsured was present in all subgroups and was similar in each year from 2000 to 2008. After adjustment, uninsured individuals had a slightly shorter length of stay than insured people and were less likely to receive five of the six interventions we examined. They were also less likely to be discharged to skilled nursing facilities or with home healthcare after discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Uninsured are more likely to die following admission for severe sepsis than patients with insurance, even after adjusting for potential confounders. This was not due to a hospital effect or demographic or clinical factors available in our administrative database. Further research should examine the mechanisms that lead to this association.

Does providing care for uninsured patients decrease emergency room visits and hospitalizations?

BACKGROUND: Access to primary care could reduce use of more costly health care by uninsured individuals through prevention and early treatment. We analyzed data from a program providing free primary care to test this hypothesis. METHODS: We compared emergency room (ER) visits and hospitalizations among uninsured, low-income adults who received immediate versus delayed access to a program providing free primary care, including labs, X-rays, and specialty consultation. We used surveys to identify ER visits and hospitalizations during the 12 months preceding and following program enrollment or wait list entry. RESULTS: Hospitalizations decreased from the year before entry to the year following entry in participants with immediate and delayed (6.0% vs 8.8% decrease) access. ER use also decreased in both groups (11.2% vs 15.4%). CONCLUSIONS: Free primary care services and specialty consultation did not reduce use of more costly health care services during its first year. More prolonged availability of primary care might have greater impact.

Electrodiagnostic consultation and identification of neuromuscular conditions in persons with diabetes.

INTRODUCTION: Although the American Association of Neuromuscular and Electrodiagnostic Medicine recommends that electrodiagnostic procedures should be performed by physicians with specialty training, these procedures are increasingly being performed by non-specialists. METHODS: We used a nationally representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries with diabetes who used electrodiagnostic services in 2006 to examine whether specialists and non-specialists were different in the rates of identifying common neuromuscular conditions. RESULTS: Specialists (neurologists and physiatrists) performed 62% of electrodiagnostic consultations; non-specialist physicians and non-physicians performed 31% and 5%, respectively. After adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, diabetes severity, and comorbidities, specialists were 1.26-9 times more likely than non-physicians to diagnose polyneuropathy, lumbosacral radiculopathy, cervical radiculopathy, carpal tunnel syndrome, and ulnar neuropathy. Almost 80% of electrodiagnostic studies performed by specialists included electromyography testing; fewer than 13% by non-specialists did. CONCLUSIONS: Inadequate use of electromyography and fewer specific diagnoses suggest that many non-specialists perform insufficiently comprehensive electrodiagnostic studies.

Understanding of the benefits of coronary revascularization procedures among patients who are offered such procedures.

BACKGROUND: To participate meaningfully in decisions regarding invasive procedure use, patients should understand the benefits and risks. Previous work has focused on risks; we assessed patient understanding of the benefits of coronary revascularization procedures. METHODS: We interviewed 1650 patients and their treating physicians after elective coronary angiography performed at 3 Veterans Health Administration hospitals and 1 university hospital. We excluded patients for whom the decision to undergo revascularization was made before admission. This report focuses on 633 patients who had been offered coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG, n = 324) or percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) and responded to questions about expected benefits. Both patient and physician were asked to report the benefits they expected from revascularization. Forty-nine physicians reported on 490 patients. RESULTS: Most patients were older (mean age 63.8 years), white (89.4%), and male (77.6%). Most patients expected improved symptoms (83%) and survival (83%). Physician-patient agreement regarding whether survival would improve was no better than chance (kappa = 0.02 for CABG, kappa = -0.01 for PCI, both P > .10). There was also poor agreement regarding whether symptoms were expected to improve, but this was better than chance (kappa = 0.09, P = .01 for CABG; kappa = 0.19, P = .02 for PCI). Physician-patient agreement was poor regardless of patient characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Patients have more optimistic expectations about benefits of coronary revascularization than the cardiologist offering the procedure. Further research should confirm this finding and clarify how physician-patient disagreement regarding the benefits of coronary revascularization affects patient participation in decision making.

Racial differences in cardiac catheterization as a function of patients' beliefs.

OBJECTIVES: We examined racial differences in cardiac catheterization rates and reviewed whether patients' beliefs or other variables were associated with observed disparities. METHODS: We did a prospective observational cohort study of 1045 White and African American patients at 5 Veterans Affairs (VA) medical centers whose nuclear imaging studies indicated reversible cardiac ischemia. RESULTS: There were few demographic differences between White and African American patients in our sample. African Americans were less likely than Whites to undergo cardiac catheterization. African Americans were more likely than Whites to indicate a strong reliance on religion and to report racial and social class discrimination and were less likely to indicate a generalized trust in people but did not differ from White patients on numerous other attitudes about health and health care. Neither sociodemographic or clinical characteristics nor patients' beliefs explained the observed disparities, but physicians' assessments of the procedure's importance and patients' likelihood of coronary disease seemed to account for differences not otherwise explained. CONCLUSIONS: Patients' preferences are not the likely source of racial disparities in the use of cardiac catheterization among veterans using VA care, but physicians' assessments warrant further attention.

Racial variations in processes of care for patients with community-acquired pneumonia.

BACKGROUND: Patients hospitalized with community acquired pneumonia (CAP) have a substantial risk of death, but there is evidence that adherence to certain processes of care, including antibiotic administration within 8 hours, can decrease this risk. Although national mortality data shows blacks have a substantially increased odds of death due to pneumonia as compared to whites previous studies of short-term mortality have found decreased mortality for blacks. Therefore we examined pneumonia-related processes of care and short-term mortality in a population of patients hospitalized with CAP. METHODS: We reviewed the records of all identified Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for pneumonia between 10/1/1998 and 9/30/1999 at one of 101 Pennsylvania hospitals, and randomly selected 60 patients at each hospital for inclusion. We reviewed the medical records to gather process measures of quality, pneumonia severity and demographics. We used Medicare administrative data to identify 30-day mortality. Because only a small proportion of the study population was black, we included all 240 black patients and randomly selected 720 white patients matched on age and gender. We performed a resampling of the white patients 10 times. RESULTS: Males were 43% of the cohort, and the median age was 76 years. After controlling for potential confounders, blacks were less likely to receive antibiotics within 8 hours (odds ratio with 95% confidence interval 0.6, 0.4-0.97), but were as likely as whites to have blood cultures obtained prior to receiving antibiotics (0.7, 0.3-1.5), to have oxygenation assessed within 24 hours of presentation (1.6, 0.9-3.0), and to receive guideline concordant antibiotics (OR 0.9, 0.6-1.7). Black patients had a trend towards decreased 30-day mortality (0.4, 0.2 to 1.0). CONCLUSION: Although blacks were less likely to receive optimal care, our findings are consistent with other studies that suggest better risk-adjusted survival among blacks than among whites. Further study is needed to determine why this is the case.