Economic effects for citizens and the government of a country-level tobacco endgame strategy: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Aotearoa-New Zealand (A/NZ) was the first country to pass a comprehensive commercial tobacco endgame strategy into law. Key components include the denicotinisation of smoked tobacco products and a major reduction in tobacco retail outlets. Understanding the potential long-term economic impacts of such measures is important for government planning. DESIGN: A tobacco policy simulation model that evaluated the health impacts of the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan was extended to evaluate the economic effects from both government and citizen perspectives. Estimates were presented in 2021 US$, discounted at 3% per annum. RESULTS: The modelled endgame policy package generates considerable growth in income for the A/NZ population with a total cumulative gain of US$31 billion by 2050. From a government perspective, increased superannuation payments and reduced tobacco excise tax revenue result in a negative net financial position and a cumulative shortfall of US$11.5 billion by 2050. In a sensitivity analysis considering future labour force changes, the government's cumulative net position remained negative by 2050, but only by US$1.9 billion. CONCLUSIONS: A policy such as the A/NZ Smokefree Action Plan is likely to produce substantial economic benefits for citizens, and modest impacts on government finances related to reduced tobacco tax and increases in aged pensions due to increased life expectancy. Such costs can be anticipated and planned for and might be largely offset by future increases in the size of the labour force and the proportion of people 65+ years old working in the formal economy.

Predicting high health-cost users among people with cardiovascular disease using machine learning and nationwide linked social administrative datasets.

OBJECTIVES: To optimise planning of public health services, the impact of high-cost users needs to be considered. However, most of the existing statistical models for costs do not include many clinical and social variables from administrative data that are associated with elevated health care resource use, and are increasingly available. This study aimed to use machine learning approaches and big data to predict high-cost users among people with cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: We used nationally representative linked datasets in New Zealand to predict CVD prevalent cases with the most expensive cost belonging to the top quintiles by cost. We compared the performance of four popular machine learning models (L1-regularised logistic regression, classification trees, k-nearest neighbourhood (KNN) and random forest) with the traditional regression models. RESULTS: The machine learning models had far better accuracy in predicting high health-cost users compared with the logistic models. The harmony score F1 (combining sensitivity and positive predictive value) of the machine learning models ranged from 30.6% to 41.2% (compared with 8.6-9.1% for the logistic models). Previous health costs, income, age, chronic health conditions, deprivation, and receiving a social security benefit were among the most important predictors of the CVD high-cost users. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides additional evidence that machine learning can be used as a tool together with big data in health economics for identification of new risk factors and prediction of high-cost users with CVD. As such, machine learning may potentially assist with health services planning and preventive measures to improve population health while potentially saving healthcare costs.

Tobacco endgame intervention impacts on health gains and Maori:non-Maori health inequity: a simulation study of the Aotearoa/New Zealand Tobacco Action Plan.

BACKGROUND: The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Maori:non-Maori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies. METHODS: We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs. RESULTS: The combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Maori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Maori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Maori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Maori:non-Maori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males. CONCLUSION: A tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Maori and non-Maori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

Prioritization of intervention domains to prevent cardiovascular disease: a country-level case study using global burden of disease and local data.

AIM: We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the "GBD Results Tool." We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings. RESULTS: Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Maori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities. CONCLUSIONS: We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

Disease-Related Loss to Government Funding: Longitudinal Analysis of Individual-Level Health and Tax Data for an Entire Country.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this longitudinal analysis was to estimate funding loss in terms of tax revenue to the New Zealand (NZ) government from disease and injury among working age adults. METHODS: Linked national health and tax data sets of the usually resident population between 2006 and 2016 were used to model 40 disease states simultaneously in a fixed-effects regression analysis to estimate population-level tax loss from disease and injury. To estimate tax revenue loss to the NZ government, we modeled a counterfactual scenario where all disease/injury was cause deleted. RESULTS: The estimated tax paid by all 25- to 64-year-olds in the eligible NZ population was $15 773 million (m) per annum (US dollar 2021), or $16 446 m for a counterfactual as though no one had any disease disease-related income loss (a 4.3% or $672.9 m increase in tax revenue per annum). The disease that-if it had no impact on income-generated the greatest impact was mental illness, contributing 34.7% ($233.3 m) of all disease-related tax loss, followed by cardiovascular (14.7%, $99.0 m) and endocrine (10.2%, $68.8 m). Tax revenue gains after deleting all disease/injury increased up to 65 years of age, with the largest contributor occurring among 60- to 64-year-olds ($131.7 m). Varied results were also observed among different ethnicities and differing levels of deprivation. CONCLUSIONS: This study finds considerable variation by disease on worker productivity and therefore tax revenue in this high-income country. These findings strengthen the economic and government case for prevention, particularly the prevention of mental health conditions and cardiovascular disease.

Income and economic productivity loss associated with comorbidity: longitudinal analysis of linked individual-level data for a whole country.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the income loss from having two or more diseases, over and above the independent and separate effects of having a single disease. METHODS: We used linked health income data from 2006-2007 to 2015-2016 for 25-64 years, for the entire New Zealand population. Fixed effects OLS regression was used to estimate within-individual income loss for diseases separately, and to estimate if having two or more diseases together resulted in reduced (subadditive) or additional (superadditive) income impacts (relative to adding together the income impacts for each disease when experienced singly). RESULTS: Of the 169 comorbidity pairs for both sexes, 28 (17%) had a statistically significant superadditive (n=14) or subadditive (n=14) effect of having two diseases. The combined total income gain from deleting all diseases and comorbidities was US$2.269 billion (95% CI US$$2.125 to US$2.389 billion), or a 3.61% (95% CI 3.38% to 3.80%) increase in income. Of this, 8.8% or US$200 million (95% CI US$193 to US$207 million) was attributable to a tendency for comorbidity interactions to increase income loss more than expected for common disease pairings. CONCLUSIONS: This national longitudinal study found that disease is associated with income loss, but most of this impact is due to the distinct and independent impact of separate diseases. Nevertheless, there was a tendency for two or more diseases to disproportionately increase income loss more than the summed impacts of each of these diseases if experienced singly.

Using household economic survey data to assess food expenditure patterns and trends in a high-income country with notable health inequities.

This study aimed to identify dietary trends in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) and whether inequities in dietary patterns are changing. We extracted data from the Household Economic Survey (HES), which was designed to provide information on impacts of policy-making in NZ, and performed descriptive analyses on food expenditures. Overall, total household food expenditure per capita increased by 0.38% annually over this period. Low-income households spent around three quarters of what high-income households spent on food per capita. High-income households experienced a greater increase in expenditure on nuts and seeds and a greater reduction in expenditure on processed meat. There was increased expenditure over time on fruit and vegetables nuts and seeds, and healthy foods in Maori (Indigenous) households with little variations in non-Maori households. But there was little change in processed meat expenditure for Maori households and expenditure on less healthy foods also increased over time. Routinely collected HES data were useful and cost-effective for understanding trends in food expenditure patterns to inform public health interventions, in the absence of nutrition survey data. Potentially positive expenditure trends for Maori were identified, however, food expenditure inequities in processed meat and less healthy foods by ethnicity and income continue to be substantial.

Beyond muddy waters: Three Waters reforms required to future-proof water service delivery and protect public health in Aotearoa New Zealand.

A 2016 drinking water-related campylobacteriosis outbreak in Aotearoa New Zealand made much of an entire town sick leading to reforms colloquially called "Three Waters", which aims to improve the management and delivery of waste, storm and drinking water systems. Public discourse on the Three Waters reforms has been dominated by anti-co-governance rhetoric, concerns around privatisation and loss of local control and alternative less comprehensive reform models. This debate has drowned out the fundamental problem statement justifying the reforms, that is, the management of drinking water resources is currently: 1) demonstrably inadequate to protect public health and promote health equity; and 2) economically inefficient. We discuss four areas where the proposed Three Waters reforms are likely to address current and future challenges and improve public health. We conclude by outlining four areas of remaining contention.

Going 'Super Value' in New Zealand: cigarette pricing strategies during a period of sustained annual excise tax increases.

BACKGROUND: Between 2010 and 2020, the New Zealand (NZ) Government increased tobacco excise tax by inflation plus 10% each year. We reviewed market structure changes and examined whether NZ tobacco companies shifted excise tax increases to maintain the affordability of lower priced cigarette brands. METHODS: We cluster-analysed market data that tobacco companies supply to the NZ Ministry of Health, created four price partitions and examined the size and share of these over time. For each partition, we analysed cigarette brand numbers and market share, calculated the volume-weighted real stick price for each year and compared this price across different price partitions. We calculated the net real retail price (price before tax) for each price partition and compared these prices before and after plain packaging took effect. RESULTS: The number and market share of Super Value and Budget brands increased, while those of Everyday and Premium brands decreased. Differences between the price of Premium and Super Value brands increased, as did the net retail price difference for these partitions. Following plain packaging's implementation, Super Value brand numbers more than doubled; contrary to industry predictions, the price difference between these and higher priced brands did not narrow. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2010 and 2020, NZ tobacco companies introduced more Super Value cigarette brands and shifted excise tax increases to reduce the impact these had on low-priced brands. Setting a minimum retail price for cigarettes could curtail tobacco companies' ability to undermine tobacco taxation policies designed to reduce smoking.

Comparing health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness of 100s of interventions in Australia and New Zealand: an online interactive league table.

BACKGROUND: This study compares the health gains, costs, and cost-effectiveness of hundreds of Australian and New Zealand (NZ) health interventions conducted with comparable methods in an online interactive league table designed to inform policy. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed evaluations (2010 to 2018) arising from the Australia Cost-Effectiveness research and NZ Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programmes, or using similar methodology, with: health gains quantified as health-adjusted life years (HALYs); net health system costs and/or incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; time horizon of at least 10 years; and 3% to 5% discount rates. RESULTS: We identified 384 evaluations that met the inclusion criteria, covering 14 intervention domains: alcohol; cancer; cannabis; communicable disease; cardiovascular disease; diabetes; diet; injury; mental illness; other non-communicable diseases; overweight and obesity; physical inactivity; salt; and tobacco. There were large variations in health gain across evaluations: 33.9% gained less than 0.1 HALYs per 1000 people in the total population over the remainder of their lifespan, through to 13.0% gaining > 10 HALYs per 1000 people. Over a third (38.8%) of evaluations were cost-saving. CONCLUSIONS: League tables of comparably conducted evaluations illustrate the large health gain (and cost) variations per capita between interventions, in addition to cost-effectiveness. Further work can test the utility of this league table with policy-makers and researchers.

The Cost-effectiveness of a Mass Media Campaign to Promote Smartphone Apps for Weight Loss: Updated Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that smartphone apps can be effective in the self-management of weight. Given the low cost, broad reach, and apparent effectiveness of weight loss apps, governments may seek to encourage their uptake as a tool to reduce excess weight in the population. Mass media campaigns are 1 mechanism for promoting app use. However, the cost and potential cost-effectiveness are important considerations. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to use modeling to assess the health impacts, health system costs, cost-effectiveness, and health equity of a mass media campaign to promote high-quality smartphone apps for weight loss in New Zealand. METHODS: We used an established proportional multistate life table model that simulates the 2011 New Zealand adult population over the lifetime, subgrouped by age, sex, and ethnicity (Maori [Indigenous] or non-Maori). The risk factor was BMI. The model compared business as usual to a one-off mass media campaign intervention, which included the pooled effect size from a recent meta-analysis of smartphone weight loss apps. The resulting impact on BMI and BMI-related diseases was captured through changes in health gain (quality-adjusted life years) and in health system costs. The difference in total health system costs was the net sum of intervention costs and downstream cost offsets because of altered disease rates. An annual discount rate of 3% was applied to health gains and health system costs. Multiple scenarios and sensitivity analyses were conducted, including an equity adjustment. RESULTS: Across the remaining lifetime of the modeled 2011 New Zealand population, the mass media campaign to promote weight loss app use had an estimated overall health gain of 181 (95% uncertainty interval 113-270) quality-adjusted life years and health care costs of -NZ $606,000 (-US $408,000; 95% uncertainty interval -NZ $2,540,000 [-US $1,709,000] to NZ $907,000 [US $610,000]). The mean health care costs were negative, representing overall savings to the health system. Across the outcomes examined in this study, the modeled mass media campaign to promote weight loss apps among the general population would be expected to provide higher per capita health gain for Maori and hence reduce health inequities arising from high BMI, assuming that the intervention would be as effective for Maori as it is for non-Maori. CONCLUSIONS: A modeled mass media campaign to encourage the adoption of smartphone apps to promote weight loss among the New Zealand adult population is expected to yield an overall gain in health and to be cost-saving to the health system. Although other interventions in the nutrition and physical activity space are even more beneficial to health and produce larger cost savings (eg, fiscal policies and food reformulation), governments may choose to include strategies to promote health app use as complementary measures.

Disaggregating proportional multistate lifetables by population heterogeneity to estimate intervention impacts on inequalities.

BACKGROUND: Simulation models can be used to quantify the projected health impact of interventions. Quantifying heterogeneity in these impacts, for example by socioeconomic status, is important to understand impacts on health inequalities. We aim to disaggregate one type of Markov macro-simulation model, the proportional multistate lifetable, ensuring that under business-as-usual (BAU) the sum of deaths across disaggregated strata in each time step returns the same as the initial non-disaggregated model. We then demonstrate the application by deprivation quintiles for New Zealand (NZ), for: hypothetical interventions (50% lower all-cause mortality, 50% lower coronary heart disease mortality) and a dietary intervention to substitute 59% of sodium with potassium chloride in the food supply. METHODS: We developed a disaggregation algorithm that iteratively rescales mortality, incidence and case-fatality rates by time-step of the model to ensure correct total population counts were retained at each step. To demonstrate the algorithm on deprivation quintiles in NZ, we used the following inputs: overall (non-disaggregated) all-cause mortality & morbidity rates, coronary heart disease incidence & case fatality rates; stroke incidence & case fatality rates. We also obtained rate ratios by deprivation for these same measures. Given all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates by deprivation quintile, we derived values for the incidence, case fatality and mortality rates for each quintile, ensuring rate ratios across quintiles and the total population mortality and morbidity rates were returned when averaged across groups. The three interventions were then run on top of these scaled BAU scenarios. RESULTS: The algorithm exactly disaggregated populations by strata in BAU. The intervention scenario life years and health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained differed slightly when summed over the deprivation quintile compared to the aggregated model, due to the stratified model (appropriately) allowing for differential background mortality rates by strata. Modest differences in health gains (HALYs) resulted from rescaling of sub-population mortality and incidence rates to ensure consistency with the aggregate population. CONCLUSION: Policy makers ideally need to know the effect of population interventions estimated both overall, and by socioeconomic and other strata. We demonstrate a method and provide code to do this routinely within proportional multistate lifetable simulation models and similar Markov models.

Updated Health and Cost Impacts of Electronic Nicotine Delivery Systems, Using Recent Estimates of Relative Harm for Vaping Compared to Smoking.

BACKGROUND: Measuring population health and costs effects of liberalizing access to electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) is an evolving field with high persisting uncertainty. A critical area of uncertainty for policy-makers are estimates of net harms from ENDS relative to cigarettes, therefore, we model these harms using updated estimates incorporating disease specificity. METHODS: We use updated estimates of relative harm of vaping vs smoking, based upon relevant biomarker studies to model the impact of liberalizing access to ENDS in New Zealand (NZ), relative to a ban (where ENDS are not legally available), in an existing proportional multi-state life-table model of 16 tobacco-related diseases. RESULTS: This modeling suggests that ENDS liberalization results in an expected gain of 195 000 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the remainder of the NZ population's lifespan. There was wide uncertainty in QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval [UI] = -8000 to 406 000) with a 3.2% probability of net health loss (based upon the number of simulation runs returning positive QALY gains). The average per capita health gain was 0.044 QALYs (equivalent to an extra 16 days of healthy life). Health system cost-savings were expected to be NZ$2.8 billion (US$2.1 billion in 2020 US$; 95%UI: -0.3 to 6.2 billion [2011 NZ$]), with an estimated 3% chance of a net increase in per capita cost. CONCLUSIONS: This updated modeling around liberalizing ENDs in NZ, still suggests likely net health and cost-saving benefits-but of lesser magnitude than previous work and with a small possibility of net harm to population health. IMPLICATIONS: This study found evidence using updated biomarker studies that ENDS liberalization could result in QALY gains across the New Zealand population lifespan that are also cost-saving to the health system. Governments should include the information from these types of modeling studies in their decision-making around potentially improving access to ENDS for existing smokers, while at the same further reducing access to tobacco.

Prescribing Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity Promotion in Primary Care: Modeling Study of Health Gain and Cost Savings.

BACKGROUND: Inadequate physical activity is a substantial cause of health loss worldwide, and this loss is attributable to diseases such as coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and certain forms of cancer. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the potential impact of the prescription of smartphone apps in primary care settings on physical activity levels, health gains (in quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]), and health system costs in New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: A proportional multistate lifetable model was used to estimate the change in physical activity levels and predict the resultant health gains in QALYs and health system costs over the remaining life span of the NZ population alive in 2011 at a 3% discount rate. RESULTS: The modeled intervention resulted in an estimated 430 QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval 320-550), with net cost savings of 2011 NZ $2.2 million (2011 US $1.5 million) over the remaining life span of the 2011 NZ population. On a per capita basis, QALY gains were generally larger in women than in men and larger in Maori than in non-Maori. The health impact and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were highly sensitive to assumptions on intervention uptake and decay. For example, the scenario analysis with the largest benefits, which assumed a 5-year maintenance of additional physical activity levels, delivered 1750 QALYs and 2011 NZ $22.5 million (2011 US $15.1 million) in cost savings. CONCLUSIONS: The prescription of smartphone apps for promoting physical activity in primary care settings is likely to generate modest health gains and cost savings at the population level in this high-income country. Such gains may increase with ongoing improvements in app design and increased health worker promotion of the apps to patients.

Disease-related income and economic productivity loss in New Zealand: A longitudinal analysis of linked individual-level data.

BACKGROUND: Reducing disease can maintain personal individual income and improve societal economic productivity. However, estimates of income loss for multiple diseases simultaneously with thorough adjustment for confounding are lacking, to our knowledge. We estimate individual-level income loss for 40 conditions simultaneously by phase of diagnosis, and the total income loss at the population level (a function of how common the disease is and the individual-level income loss if one has the disease). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used linked health tax data for New Zealand as a high-income country case study, from 2006 to 2007 to 2015 to 2016 for 25- to 64-year-olds (22.5 million person-years). Fixed effects regression was used to estimate within-individual income loss by disease, and cause-deletion methods to estimate economic productivity loss at the population level. Income loss in the year of diagnosis was highest for dementia for both men (US$8,882; 95% CI $6,709 to $11,056) and women ($7,103; $5,499 to $8,707). Mental illness also had high income losses in the year of diagnosis (average of about $5,300 per year for males and $4,100 per year for females, for 4 subcategories of: depression and anxiety; alcohol related; schizophrenia; and other). Similar patterns were evident for prevalent years of diagnosis. For the last year of life, cancers tended to have the highest income losses, (e.g., colorectal cancer males: $17,786, 95% CI $15,555 to $20,018; females: $14,192, $12,357 to $16,026). The combined annual income loss from all diseases among 25- to 64-year-olds was US$2.72 billion or 4.3% of total income. Diseases contributing more than 4% of total disease-related income loss were mental illness (30.0%), cardiovascular disease (15.6%), musculoskeletal (13.7%), endocrine (8.9%), gastrointestinal (7.4%), neurological (6.5%), and cancer (4.5%). The limitations of this study include residual biases that may overestimate the effect of disease on income loss, such as unmeasured time-varying confounding (e.g., divorce leading to both depression and income loss) and reverse causation (e.g., income loss leading to depression). Conversely, there may also be offsetting underestimation biases, such as income loss in the prodromal phase before diagnosis that is misclassified to "healthy" person time. CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal study, we found that income loss varies considerably by disease. Nevertheless, mental illness, cardiovascular, and musculoskeletal diseases stand out as likely major causes of economic productivity loss, suggesting that they should be prioritised in prevention programmes.

A survey of the smokefree status of pedestrian-only spaces in 10 New Zealand local government areas.

AIM: To describe the smokefree status and signage of outdoor pedestrian-only plazas/malls/boulevards in 10 New Zealand local government (council) areas. METHODS: The 10 council areas were a convenience sample. Council websites were examined for smokefree policies, and a systematic attempt was made to identify the five largest pedestrian-only sites with permanent seating in each council area (10 sites each for two larger cities). Field visits were conducted to all selected sites during January-May 2021. RESULTS: Smokefree policies with components covering smokefree outdoor plazas/malls/boulevards were common (80%; 8/10 councils), albeit with some gaps (eg, around signage and vaping policy). A total of 60 relevant pedestrianised sites with permanent seating were identified and surveyed. Of these, 63% were officially designated smokefree. Smokefree signage was only present in 15% (9/60) of all the sites and in 24% (9/38) of the designated smokefree sites. In these designated sites, the average number of smokefree signs was only 1.4 (range: 0 to 14). Issues identified with the signs included small size, being only a small part of a larger other sign, limited use of te reo Maori wording and not covering vaping. At sites where tables were present, 12% had ash trays on the tables (none at smokefree sites). CONCLUSIONS: Smokefree plazas/malls/boulevards in this survey had multiple policy and signage deficiencies that are inconsistent with achieving the national Smokefree 2025 goal. There is scope to address these issues with an upgrade to the national smokefree law.

Impact of taxes on purchases of close substitute foods: analysis of cross-price elasticities using data from a randomized experiment.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of health-related food taxes on substitution and complementary purchases within food groups, including from unhealthier to healthier alternatives and between brands. METHODS: We used data from a virtual supermarket experiment with data from 4,259 shopping events linked to varying price sets. Substitution or complementary effects within six frequently purchased food categories were analyzed. Products' own- and cross-price elasticities were analyzed using Almost Ideal Demand System models. RESULTS: Overall, 37.5% of cross-price elasticities were significant (p < 0.05) and included values greater than 0.10. Supplementary and complementary effects were particularly found in the dairy, meats and snacks categories. For example, a 1% increase in the price of high saturated fat dairy was associated with a 0.18% (SE 0.06%) increase in purchases of low saturated fat dairy. For name- and home-brand products, significant substitution effects were found in 50% (n = 3) of cases, but only in one case this was above the 0.10 threshold. CONCLUSIONS/POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Given the relatively low own-price elasticities and the limited substitution and complementary effects, relatively high taxes are needed to substantively increase healthy food purchases at the population level. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study included secondary analyses; the original trial was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 .

Bumper issue of COVID-19 pandemic studies of relevance to Aotearoa New Zealand.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Aotearoa New Zealand adopted a clear 'elimination strategy', which has (up to June 2021) been very successful in both health and economic terms compared to other OECD countries. Nevertheless, the pandemic response has still been a very major shock to the New Zealand health system. This issue of the New Zealand Medical Journal has 14 new pandemic-related articles. Some of this work can help inform vaccination prioritisation decisions and inform preparations of primary and secondary care services and social services for any future raising of levels in the pandemic Alert Level system. Particularly strong themes are around the value (and challenges) of telehealth services, and also the need for responses throughout the health system to ensure health equity and support for the most vulnerable citizens.

Progress in the Pacific on sugar-sweetened beverage taxes: a systematic review of policy changes from 2000 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: To systematically characterise sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax policy changes in Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: Medline, Google Scholar, Pacific Islands Legal Information Institute database, Factiva and news and government websites were systematically searched up to October 2019. Information was extracted on the date and SSB tax level change, tax type, included beverages, and earmarking; and checked for consistency with local experts. RESULTS: Three-quarters of PICTs had an SSB tax (n=16/21) and 11 of these were excise taxes that included both imported and locally produced beverages. The level of tax was over 20% in 14 jurisdictions. SSB tax was increased by more than 20 percentage points in eight PICTs. Most taxes were ad valorem or volumetric, three were earmarked and only two taxes targeted sugar-sweetened fruit juices. The majority of countries (14/21) had different tax rates for imported and locally produced beverages. CONCLUSIONS: More than three-quarters of PICTs have SSB taxes. More than one-third increased these taxes since 2000 at an amount that is expected to reduce soft drink consumption. Implications for public health: Despite high-quality tax design elements in some PICTs, SSB control policies could generally be strengthened to improve health benefits, e.g. by targeting all SSBs and earmarking revenue for health.