Development and validation of a risk assessment model for prediabetes in China national diabetes survey.

BACKGROUND: Prediabetes risk assessment models derived from large sample sizes are scarce. AIM: To establish a robust assessment model for prediabetes and to validate the model in different populations. METHODS: The China National Diabetes and Metabolic Disorders Study (CNDMDS) collected information from 47325 participants aged at least 20 years across China from 2007 to 2008. The Thyroid Disorders, Iodine Status and Diabetes Epidemiological Survey (TIDE) study collected data from 66108 participants aged at least 18 years across China from 2015 to 2017. A logistic model with stepwise selection was performed to identify significant risk factors for prediabetes and was internally validated by bootstrapping in the CNDMDS. External validations were performed in diverse populations, including populations of Hispanic (Mexican American, other Hispanic) and non-Hispanic (White, Black and Asian) participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) in the United States and 66108 participants in the TIDE study in China. C statistics and calibration plots were adopted to evaluate the model's discrimination and calibration performance. RESULTS: A set of easily measured indicators (age, education, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure) were selected as significant risk factors. A risk assessment model was established for prediabetes with a C statistic of 0.6998 (95%CI: 0.6933 to 0.7063) and a calibration slope of 1.0002. When externally validated in the NHANES and TIDE studies, the model showed increased C statistics in Mexican American, other Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, Asian and Chinese populations but a slightly decreased C statistic in non-Hispanic White individuals. Applying the risk assessment model to the TIDE population, we obtained a C statistic of 0.7308 (95%CI: 0.7260 to 0.7357) and a calibration slope of 1.1137. A risk score was derived to assess prediabetes. Individuals with scores ≥ 7 points were at high risk of prediabetes, with a sensitivity of 60.19% and specificity of 67.59%. CONCLUSION: An easy-to-use assessment model for prediabetes was established and was internally and externally validated in different populations. The model had a satisfactory performance and could screen individuals with a high risk of prediabetes.

Prevalence, risk factors, and management of asthma in China: a national cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is a common chronic airway disease worldwide. Despite its large population size, China has had no comprehensive study of the national prevalence, risk factors, and management of asthma. We therefore aimed to estimate the national prevalence of asthma in a representative sample of the Chinese population. METHODS: A representative sample of 57 779 adults aged 20 years or older was recruited for the national cross-sectional China Pulmonary Health (CPH) study using a multi-stage stratified sampling method with parameters derived from the 2010 census. Ten Chinese provinces, representative of all socioeconomic settings, from six geographical regions were selected, and all assessments were done in local health centres. Exclusion criteria were temporary residence, inability to take a spirometry test, hospital treatment of cardiovascular conditions or tuberculosis, and pregnancy and breastfeeding. Asthma was determined on the basis of a self-reported history of diagnosis by a physician or by wheezing symptoms in the preceding 12 months. All participants were assessed with a standard asthma questionnaire and were classed as having or not having airflow limitation through pulmonary function tests before and after the use of a bronchodilator (400 µg of salbutamol). Risk factors for asthma were examined by multivariable-adjusted analyses done in all participants for whom data on the variables of interest were available. Disease management was assessed by the self-reported history of physician diagnosis, treatments, and hospital visits in people with asthma. FINDINGS: Between June 22, 2012, and May 25, 2015, 57 779 participants were recruited into the CPH study. 50 991 (21 446 men and 29 545 women) completed the questionnaire survey and had reliable post-bronchodilator pulmonary function test results and were thus included in the final analysis. The overall prevalence of asthma in our sample was 4·2% (95% CI 3·1-5·6), representing 45·7 million Chinese adults. The prevalence of asthma with airflow limitation was 1·1% (0·9-1·4), representing 13·1 million adults. Cigarette smoking (odds ratio [OR] 1·89, 95% CI 1·26-2·84; p=0·004), allergic rhinitis (3·06, 2·26-4·15; p<0·0001), childhood pneumonia or bronchitis (2·43, 1·44-4·10; p=0·002), parental history of respiratory disease (1·44, 1·02-2·04; p=0·040), and low education attainment (p=0·045) were associated with prevalent asthma. In 2032 people with asthma, only 28·8% (95% CI 19·7-40·0) reported ever being diagnosed by a physician, 23·4% (13·9-36·6) had a previous pulmonary function test, and 5·6% (3·1-9·9) had been treated with inhaled corticosteroids. Furthermore, 15·5% (11·4-20·8) people with asthma reported at least one emergency room visit and 7·2% (4·9-10·5) at least one hospital admission due to exacerbation of respiratory symptoms within the preceding year. INTERPRETATION: Asthma is prevalent but largely undiagnosed and undertreated in China. It is crucial to increase the awareness of asthma and disseminate standardised treatment in clinical settings to reduce the disease burden. FUNDING: National Key R&D Program of China, Ministry of Science and Technology of China; the Special Research Foundation for Public Welfare of Health, Ministry of Health of China; the Chinese National Research Program for Key Issues in Air Pollution Control; and the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Electronic Health Record Driven Prediction for Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in Early Pregnancy.

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is conventionally confirmed with oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) in 24 to 28 weeks of gestation, but it is still uncertain whether it can be predicted with secondary use of electronic health records (EHRs) in early pregnancy. To this purpose, the cost-sensitive hybrid model (CSHM) and five conventional machine learning methods are used to construct the predictive models, capturing the future risks of GDM in the temporally aggregated EHRs. The experimental data sources from a nested case-control study cohort, containing 33,935 gestational women in West China Second Hospital. After data cleaning, 4,378 cases and 50 attributes are stored and collected for the data set. Through selecting the most feasible method, the cost parameter of CSHM is adapted to deal with imbalance of the dataset. In the experiment, 3940 samples are used for training and the rest 438 samples for testing. Although the accuracy of positive samples is barely acceptable (62.16%), the results suggest that the vast majority (98.4%) of those predicted positive instances are real positives. To our knowledge, this is the first study to apply machine learning models with EHRs to predict GDM, which will facilitate personalized medicine in maternal health management in the future.

Establishing Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine in China: 2016 Report on Implementation and Government Recognition: Joint Statement of the Chinese Association of Chest Physicians and the American College of Chest Physicians.

This article provides an update on progress toward establishing pulmonary and critical care medicine (PCCM) fellowship training as one of the first four subspecialties to be recognized and supported by the Chinese government. Designed and implemented throughout 2013 and 2014 by a collaborative effort of the Chinese Thoracic Society (CTS) and the American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST), 12 leading Chinese hospitals enrolled a total of 64 fellows into standardized PCCM training programs with common curricula, educational activities, and assessment measures. Supplemental educational materials, online assessment tools, and institutional site visits designed to evaluate and provide feedback on the programs' progress are being provided by CHEST. As a result of this initial progress, the Chinese government, through the Chinese Medical Doctor's Association, endorsed the concept of subspecialty fellowship training in China, with PCCM as one of the four pilot subspecialties to be operationalized nationwide in 2016, followed by implementation across other subspecialties by 2020. This article also reflects on the achievements of the training sites and the challenges they face and outlines plans to enhance and expand PCCM training and practice in China.

Establishing pulmonary and critical care medicine as a subspecialty in China: joint statement of the Chinese thoracic society and the American college of chest physicians.

This commentary heralds the recognition in China of a new subspecialty, Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, and the first national fellowship training pathway in any medical specialty. Because of striking environmental health-care similarities that existed in the United States, the Chinese medical community decided to model the specialty after that in the United States. Because of its expertise in educating pulmonary and critical care physicians in the United States, the American College of Chest Physicians was chosen by the Chinese Thoracic Society, with the approval of the Chinese government, to help with the transformation of this new specialty. A work group representing the two societies is collaborating to reorganize ICUs within a select group of large teaching hospitals in China and to introduce standardized and rigorous training in pulmonary and critical care medicine as a national program.

Health care in China: improvement, challenges, and reform.

Over the past 2 decades, significant progress has been made in improving the health-care system and people's health conditions in China. Following rapid economic growth and social development, China's health-care system is facing new challenges, such as increased health-care demands and expenditure, inefficient use of health-care resources, unsatisfying implementation of disease management guidelines, and inadequate health-care insurance. Facing these challenges, the Chinese government carried out a national health-care reform in 2009. A series of policies were developed and implemented to improve the health-care insurance system, the medical care system, the public health service system, the pharmaceutical supply system, and the health-care institution management system in China. Although these measures have shown promising results, further efforts are needed to achieve the ultimate goal of providing affordable and high-quality care for both urban and rural residents in China. This article not only covers the improvement, challenges, and reform of health care in general in China, but also highlights the status of respiratory medicine-related issues.