A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical models can test the robustness of estimates and highlight research gaps. As part of a larger project aiming to determine the optimal allocation of funding for HIV services, in this study we compare projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV-Synthesis, Optima, and Thembisa. METHODS: The five modelling groups produced estimates of the total population, HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, proportion of people living with HIV who are diagnosed, ART coverage, proportion of those on ART who are virally suppressed, AIDS-related deaths, total deaths, and the proportion of adult males who are circumcised. Estimates were made under a "status quo" scenario for the period 1990 to 2040. For each output variable we assessed the consistency of model estimates by calculating the coefficient of variation and examining the trend over time. RESULTS: For most outputs there was significant inter-model variability between 1990 and 2005, when limited data was available for calibration, good consistency from 2005 to 2025, and increasing variability towards the end of the projection period. Estimates of HIV incidence, deaths in people living with HIV, and total deaths displayed the largest long-term variability, with standard deviations between 35 and 65% of the cross-model means. Despite this variability, all models predicted a gradual decline in HIV incidence in the long-term. Projections related to the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets were more consistent, with the coefficients of variation below 0.1 for all groups except children. CONCLUSIONS: While models produced consistent estimates for several outputs, there are areas of variability that should be investigated. This is important if projections are to be used in subsequent cost-effectiveness studies.

Matching action to need: an analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2017 and population health data to focus adolescent health policy and actions in Myanmar.

Background: Myanmar is a country undergoing rapid transitions in health. Its national strategic policy for young people's health is being revised but there is a paucity of population data to inform local priorities and needs. Objective: In this paper we describe a comprehensive profile of adolescent health in Myanmar to focus policy and health actions. Methods: We used available primary data, and modelled estimates from the GBD 2017, to describe health outcomes (mortality and morbidity), health risks and determinants for adolescents in Myanmar between 1990-2017. A governance group of key stakeholders guided the framing of the study, interpretation of findings, and recommendations. Results: Overall health has improved for adolescents in Myanmar since 1990, however adolescent mortality remains high, particularly so for older adolescent males; all-cause mortality rate for 10-24 years was 70 per 100,000 for females and 149 per 100,000 for males (16,095 adolescent deaths in 2017). Overall, the dominant health problems were injuries for males and non-communicable disease for females in a context of ongoing burden of communicable and nutritional diseases for both sexes, and reproductive health needs for females. Health risks relating to undernutrition (thinness and anaemia) remain prevalent, with other health risks (overweight, binge alcohol use, and substance use) relatively low by global and regional standards but increasing. Gains have been made in social determinants such as adolescent fertility and modern contraception use; however, advances have been more limited in secondary education completion and engagement in employment and post education training. Conclusions: These results highlight the need to focus current efforts on addressing disease and mortality experienced by adolescents in Myanmar, with a specific focus on injury, mental health and non-communicable disease.

Gender inequalities in health and wellbeing across the first two decades of life: an analysis of 40 low-income and middle-income countries in the Asia-Pacific region.

BACKGROUND: By adulthood, gender inequalities in health and wellbeing are apparent. Yet, the timing and nature of gender inequalities during childhood and adolescence are less clear. We describe the emergence of gender inequalities in health and wellbeing across the first two decades of life. METHODS: We focused on the 40 low-income and middle-income countries in Asia and the Pacific. A measurement framework was developed around four key domains of wellbeing across the first two decades: health, education and transition to employment, protection, and a safe environment. Specific measurement constructs were then defined by considering gender indicator frameworks, the Sustainable Development Goals, indicator frameworks for child and adolescent health and wellbeing, and key stakeholder input. Available data were then mapped to define 87 indicators, subsequently populated using databases (UN agencies and the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study) and nationally representative surveys. Where possible, estimates in girls were compared with boys to report relative risks. FINDINGS: Although son preference is evident in some settings-as shown by higher than expected male-to-female sex ratios at birth in India, Vietnam, and China (all >1·10 compared with an expected ratio of 1·05) and excess mortality of girl children in some South Asian and Pacific nations-it is during early adolescence where marked gender inequalities consistently emerged. Adolescent girls face considerable disadvantage in relation to sexual and reproductive health (notably in South Asia and the Pacific), with high rates of child marriage (≥30% of women aged 20-24 years married before 18 years in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Afghanistan), fertility (≥65 livebirths per 1000 girls in Nauru, Laos, Afghanistan, Nepal, Marshall Islands, Bangladesh, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea), and intimate partner violence (>20% in Timor Leste, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Myanmar). Despite educational parity in many countries, females aged 15-24 years were less likely than males to be in education, employment, or training in 17 of 19 countries for which data were available. Compared with girls, adolescent boys experienced excess all-cause mortality and substantially higher mortality due to unintentional injury, interpersonal violence, alcohol and other drugs, and suicide, and higher prevalence of harmful drinking and tobacco smoking. INTERPRETATION: These findings call for a focus on gender policy and programming in later childhood and early adolescence before gender inequalities become embedded. FUNDING: UNICEF.

Direct assessment of mental health and metabolic syndrome amongst Indonesian adolescents: a study design for a mixed-methods study sampled from school and community settings.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, with the burden largely borne by people living in low- and middle-income countries. Adolescents are central to NCD control through the potential to modify risks and alter the trajectory of these diseases across the life-course. However, an absence of epidemiological data has contributed to the relative exclusion of adolescents from policies and responses. This paper documents the design of a study to measure the burden of metabolic syndrome (a key risk for NCDs) and poor mental health (a key outcome) amongst Indonesian adolescents. Using a mixed-method design, we sampled 16-18-year-old adolescents from schools and community-based settings across Jakarta and South Sulawesi. Initial formative qualitative enquiry used focus group discussions to understand how young people conceptualise mental health and body weight (separately); what they perceive as determinants of these NCDs; and what responses to these NCDs should involve. These findings informed the design of a quantitative survey that adolescents self-completed electronically. Mental health was measured using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale-Revised (CESD-R) and Kessler-10 (both validated against formal psychiatric interview in a subsample), with the metabolic syndrome measured using biomarkers and anthropometry. The survey also included scales relating to victimisation, connectedness, self-efficacy, body image and quality of life. Adolescents were sampled from schools using a multistage cluster design, and from the community using respondent-driven sampling (RDS). This study will substantially advance the field of NCD measurement amongst adolescents, especially in settings like Indonesia. It demonstrates that high quality, objective measurement is acceptable and feasible, including the collection of biomarkers in a school-based setting. It demonstrates how comparable data can be collected across both in-school and out of school adolescents, allowing a more comprehensive measure of NCD burden, risk and correlates.