RESUMO
Objective: To predicate whether China can achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3.4.1 to reduce the age-standardized mortality rate of four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in residents aged 30-70 years by 2030 based on the trend of the mortality from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We collected the mortality data on cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by age, gender and year in China from the Global Disease Burden Study 2019 (GBD2019). The age-period-cohort (APC) Bayesian model was applied for modeling the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs in China during 2020-2030 according to the trend of the mortality during 1990-2019, and comparing the predicted value in 2030 with the observed value in 2015 to evaluate the possibility of achieving SDGs 3.4.1. Results: The age-standardized mortality rate of the four major NCDs in China showed a downward trend during 1990-2019. It is predicted that the number of death of the four NCDs in Chinese residents aged 30-70 years would increase from 2.96 million in 2020 to 3.19 million in 2030, while the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease from 308.49/100 000 in 2020 to 277.80/100 000 in 2030. The age-standardized mortality rate in 2030 would only decrease by 15.94% (18.73% for males and 14.31% for females) compared with 330.46/100 000 in 2015, with a 25.09% decrease for cardiovascular diseases, 4.76% for cancers, 37.21% for chronic respiratory diseases, and unchanged for diabetes. Conclusion: Although the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs declined from 1990 to 2019 in China, it is difficult to achieve the SDGs of a 1/3 mortality rate reduction by 2030 according to the current declining trend, suggesting more active and effective efforts for NCD prevention and control are needed.