[Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030].

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

[Construction of IPA decision model for diabetes prevention and control based on economy and importance].

Objective: To determine the priority of diabetes prevention and control measures in the perspective of the economy and importance, and provide theoretical support for guiding relevant departments to implement measures based on actual economic level. Methods: An online survey was conducted on the importance, feasibility and implementation of major chronic disease prevention and control measures in 488 national demonstration areas for comprehensive chronic disease prevention and control. The content of the survey was divided into individual and group levels, with 10 dimensions and 44 measures, to obtain the scores of the economy and importance. IPA model was used to divide the dimension index of diabetes prevention and control into quadrants. The standardized factor load coefficient of the second-order confirmatory factor analysis was used to determine the priority of dimension index in the same quadrant. The priority of prevention and control measures in each dimension was determined by the discriminant parameter of project response theory. Results: The mean scores of economy and importance were 66.50 and 89.94, respectively, and the matrix was divided into four quadrants. The first quadrant was the "highest priority" with high importance and economy, including medical insurance and family doctors, health education, high-risk detection and intervention, patient management and community action. The second quadrant was characterized as high importance but low economy, which was the priority for improvement, including only one dimension of complication screening. The third quadrant was the lowest priority due to low importance and economy, including personal health service evaluation and follow-up, environmental support, diabetes co-infection prevention and glycemic policy. The last quadrant had low importance but high economy, which was the second improvement level. The priority measures in different quadrants were: (1) the highest priority: blood lipid control, occupational site, prevention and control work plan, blood glucose testing, family doctor contract service; (2) the priority improvement: annual neuropathy screening; (3)the lowest priority: universal access to risk scoring, healthy eating, healthy dining innovations and tuberculosis screening. Conclusion: IPA model can be used to construct a decision-making model for diabetes prevention and control and determine the priority of corresponding measures.

[Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030].

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

[Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030].

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

[Burden of disease attributable to alcohol use and its counter measure in China].

Harmful drinking causes serious consequences to social security as well as physical and mental health of the general public. The Global Burden of Disease Study (2017) showed that the number of alcohol-related deaths in China in 2017 was 1.82 times higher than that in 1990, and the population attributable fraction increased by 44.13%. The burden of disease caused by drinking alcohol had been increasing. By comparing with the comprehensive intervention strategy of restricting harmful drinking put forward by the World Health Organization, we suggest that the current interventions that need to be improved in China should include several aspects below: (1) strengthening the control of alcohol production, marketing and circulation, (2) restricting the availability of alcohol products for minors through enterprise self-discipline, laws and regulations, parents and school health education, (3) bridging gaps in appropriate techniques and services for alcohol restriction/abstinence in the health care system, (4) providing services such as rapid screening of alcohol dependence and short abstinence interventions, (5) strengthening restrictions on alcohol advertising especially in new media (e.g., online and social media) marketing practices for alcohol products, (6) conducting scientific research and evaluation on alcohol tax-related issues, and (7) regularly reviewing alcohol prices related to inflation and income levels.